@simji Yep, I hear you and have had similar challenges and outcomes. I trade across Winner, Top5 and Top 10 markets but it’s really only winner where you have consistent liquidity throughout.
A couple of ideas (strategies is too generous) I’ve been toying with lately:
1. Lay 3rd round leader - Laying 3rd round leader if they’re outside Top 50 OWGR and leading by 3 or less strokes. Historically have poor conversion rate. I need to get sharper on entry odds
2. Laying low faves - Looking where strong faves are too short. Eg: I got Rahm this weekend gone at $1.28 for Top 5 finish after 2nd round. He was up top (or 2nd) but a log jam of players within a few strokes of lead. My theory was there’s likely to be movement and worse case he’s unlikely to won’t shorten much more after 3rd round unless he streaks to lead. I was able to exit after 3rd Rd at @ $1.43 for nice green.
I’m starting to collect data on how the Top 5 shifts through the rounds as I’ve been reading some stuff around the fact we place to much emphasis on players “being hot” and actually history suggests in most cases they come back to the norm during the 4 rounds. I’m also tracking how the winners generally track over the 4 rounds to see what trends I can find (if any).
NB: I’ve tried to find historical data on leaderboards across rounds but haven’t had much luck so I’m starting with my own data.