Here's a few home teams I think have a good chance of winning:

Home Wins:

12:30 – Derby v Northampton (1.25)
15:00 – Newcastle v Sheffield United (1.23)
17:00 – Fenerbache v Besiktas (1.47)
17:30 – Larne v Coleraine (1.41)
17:30 – Linfield v Cliftonville (1.73)
19:45 – Lazio v Verona (1.72)
20:00 - Vasco da Gama vs Criciúma

Here are the best picks from the shortlist today 1 or 2 may not make the cut, as odds may not form/or be to low to be considered value.

Holstein Kiel v Kaiserslautern 14-3 unders is 4.10 overs is 2.48
Barnsley v Northampton 10-3 under 4.2 overs is 2.40
Cottbus v Lokomotiv Leipzig 13-3 under 3.90 overs is 2.60
Kuressaare v Tallinna FC Flora 5-1 no odds yet, if over 1.5 fhg is above 2.20 i will take it
Diosgyori v Kecskemeti 9-3 under 3.25 overs is 3.10
VFB Oldenburg v SSV Jeddeloh 10-2 under 4.70 overs is 2.22
FC Tallinn v Levadia Tallinn II 5-1 no odds yet, will take 2.20 on overs
Panaitolikos v Atromitos 6-2 under is 3.25 overs is 3.10
Zeleznicar Pancevo v Radnicki Nis 10-3 under is 3.40 overs is 2.96
Club Mercedes v CSD Muniz 5-1 no liqiud yet, but looks like it will be very good value
LDU v Tecnico Universitario 4-1 under is 4.10 overs 2.96

Sampdoria (w) 1.36 3.75 to lay under 0.5 fhg
Gornik Zabrze v LKS Lodz 1.35 3.90 to lay u 0.5 fhg
St Etienne v Caen 1.43 3.30 to lay under 0.5 fhg
Wolves v Luton 1.34 3.95 to ay under 0.5 fhg
Panaitolikos v Atromitos 1.45 3.25 to lay under 0.5 fhg
Hull v Ipswich 1.38 3.65 to lay under 0.5 fhg

May add some games later that havent got liquidity yet.

Can anyone help me on my bot setup.

I’m trying to set it up to take the SP of a given runner by its fav position as it goes into play. Is it possible to take SP in running? If I follow the steps above in the opening post to set the price target, and set the time of bet to 1sec in play, will this work?

Thanks in advance for any help

Sat 27/04/2024 Selections.
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No selections yesterday. Should have one hit today.

In other news my pace lays have massively recovered and are looking good after a disastrous March in which all my strategies failed. Will post at the end of the month so I have a full three months forward testing. Also have a strategy dobbing certain favorites that’s tested ok over three months will do the same there.

@brendan-gillen we do pre-match xg on the software, if you go through the getting started pathway that will teach you how to use the software: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/category/10/new-members-start-here

You can get the live xG in play on bookie sites like Bet365 for free

1 for tonight
19:30 Bochum v Hoffenheim

I'm climbing scaffel pike tomorrow so posting the weekends selections as well. I will only enter if the away teams odds are above 3. Will probably struggle to get the 2 afternoon kick offs on tomorrow being as I'll be up a mountain.

Saturday
12:00 Paderborn v Elversberg
15:00 Swindon v Morecambe
20:00 Aston Villa v Chelsea

Sunday
No games

Here is your first task before the lesson next week:

Comment your answers below!

@John-Folan nice will fire it up later

I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

Player Matches Won >= 0
Category WTA-Singles
Scope Last 10 Matches
✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type

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IMG_1032.png

In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

@John-Folan said in Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread:

That’s interesting that yours updates. BFBM’s doesn’t. Which is annoying and something I have raised with them. I wasn’t sure if yours used actual or predicted so thank you for clearing that up 😀

Yeah that's a shame as it's going to result in some discrepancies, but I definitely think we're on the right side of this one 🤣

@Paul-Hill don't think we could even investigate that, as there is no strategy to work from. perhaps something in the betting rules was slightly different, impossible to know if it wasn't saved unfortunately.

if you are 100% sure create it again and see if the results align with the saved one, save both and let us know the names if there is an issue and we could investigate.

@Fraser-cord

Works well any decent T20 league
Back opening team first exit 20% profit or 50% loss

been doing this for a while

@John-Folan Had this conversation with someone else who thought the same. I really like running in the rain though so couldnt see it myself. Im not a horse though I guess...

@Paul-Hill The outsider is the horse with the highest price.

2nd outsider is the horse with the 2nd highest price, etc. Basically the opposite of the favourites.

The outsider setting works in conjunction with the other betting rules, so for example if you set your entry time as 10 mins before the race, it's basically going to give you whichever horse had the highest price at 10 mins before the race.

@Patrick-Murphy Having looked at some of these, it looks like they're due to gaps in the prices. So basically short amounts of time where we weren't able to capture price snapshots, so your exits have either been missed completely or recorded later than they should have been.

These gaps can be due to latency or brief outages of the Betfair API and occasionally due to some issue our end, like the server issue I posted about recently here.

We regularly plug these gaps where we can using the Betfair historical data, and we've recently improved our audit scripts to better identify when they happen, so have been going through the whole database again to apply this improved method. It's a fairly big task but should be finished by the end of next week.

Sometimes when the issue is at Betfair's end, the data doesn't even appear in their historical data, which means we won't be able to plug the gaps at all. This will represent a fraction of a percent of trades, but I can understand that if you're backing at very high odds and large stakes, it could skew the profit figure.

Maybe we need a way of marking these in the database. We could also add some kind of "report and exclude" button to each individual trade in the results table, so that if you spot any of these yourselves, you can submit them for review and make them not appear in your backtesting results.

I'll finish the DB audit and then see what we can do to deal with any issues that still remain.

@Martin thanks alot appreciate it

@Simon-Hardy interesting, not tried this but keep me updated with how you get on!

@Martin Hi, thanks yes i think I’ll have to do this as you say to find out. I track the trades so in time should be able to.

I think getting out of a losing trade with the smallest loss could be something i focus more on rather than staying in for slightly greater wins. Kind of the same thing but the opposite.