Plan for the next 12 months.

Below I have set out my plan at this moment in time for the next 12 months. Along the way that might change for countless reasons but I will update the goals as I see fit and depending on the situation I find my self.

From my experience in life and business you need to specific about what you want to achieve - the more specific and clear you can be the better you can build a pathway to that outcome. So let's start with the BIG goal and work back how I am going to get there.

Goal - Make an average of £1000 profit in at last 6 months of the next year.

This figure would allow me to reduce the number of days where I currently work to 3 days a week. With £1000 a month from BF I would be making more money over all with both incomes then I currently earn - I would have the security of the main job and then could set aside 2 days during the week to up-skill myself, test strategies and review my work without impacting my social life on weekends.

How am I going to get there?

I want 5 or 6 solid strategies that I can rely on. I need this number of strategies because if each strategy has on average 30 picks a month then I would have 150/180 selections to make on average £6.66/£5.55 - about 6% ROI on average over the last 6 months of the year to £100 stakes. When you right it down that goal feels very achievable - I have even just surprised myself.

The above would imply I had a £10k bank using 1% of my bank roll or £5k using 2% - this could be built slowly over time as well and me topping it up from savings over the next couple of months to get me started.

So what strategies do I have to get me started? Currently I use Set and Forget as I work and TBH I don't really enjoy live trading - football tends to be unsociable hours that I value too highly to spend in other ways.

LTD - 81 selections forward tested since 08/09/23 (3months)
£72 profit to £5 lay stakes - 18% ROI so far.
Plan to increase stakes from Jan if Dec continues well.

Tomaz under 1.5 - Martins testing sheet showing 9% ROI to 400 selections - I am currently testing again since Nov will continue for Dec and Jan and then look to increase stakes accordingly.

Over 2.5 Lays - back tested over 100 results with a 60% strike rate. Using LAY bet calculator with average odds of 2.11 from testing so far this should yield a healthy profit of 12.8%

Over 3.5 Lays - back tested over 100 results with a 67% strike rate. As long as I average less than 3.0 lay odds then I should come out with profit.

Over 2.5 goals 1.0 - currently 289 results / avg 24 selections a month with a 80% strike rate - 1.35 odds from current testing (went live in Nov) - should yield an 8% ROI if it continues.

Over 2.5 goals 2.0 - 174 selections / avg 35 selections a month with a 68% strike rate - 1.53 current odds avg - yielding a 5.34% ROI to £5 bets.

These are the 6 that I am confident in should they continue their current limited success.

For anyone that's interested in how I worked out the above I use the tools below that I find very useful.

When you know your strike rate or average odds of your strategy then use - https://strikeratecalculator.com/

To work out your Lay bets then use your strike rate or odds for backing and convert with - https://betcalcul.com/calculator/converting-lay-odds-to-back-odds/
I have found this so helpful to decide whether a strategy is woth following or if you want to create a filter with lay odds.

If you want to work out for expected profit then you you can enter your strike rate and avg odds here to give you an idea if it's worth following. - https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/roi/

Other plans for the year.
AUTOMATION!!!! - Once we have the football stats update then I will be recreating my strategies and using the URL link with BFBM to place a significant chuck of my trades. I will also be using these two pieces of software to trade inplay. I will expand and accelerate this part of my plan as the software allows me to.

I may also also look to add one or two strategies from the members filters. And look to automate these as the software allows via URL in the future.

Quite a lot to cover off but that's my plan - I'll update each month with a mini update and maybe do a half way update to see how I an tracking and getting along with my progress.

Any changes to the plan I will also update on as nothing is set in stone. If anyone has any questions or comments then please fire away. I'm here to learn and always keen to discuss. Cheers, Alex

@Andrew-Gray yep 0.25 Archie score is means it's one to avoid, that's why I'm loving using that metric for forward testing.

2nd test in Bangladesh the draw price has dropped to 3.85. Looks to be a bit of rain around on the first day but surely thats gonna go up at some stage. The next 4 days are looking good. What do the old hands think?

Racing is so boring at the moment with all these cancelled meetings and horses being withdrawn. Still I’d rather that than an injured animal.

@Dan-MacKinnon yeah FHG died a death in Covid, defo had an impact

Tue 05/12/2023 Selections.
IMG_0870.jpeg

For Wed though:

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Lay under 1.5

@alexander-hughes Thank-you

@Jamie-Bourne fantastic read, always wanted a TT myself but it's not practical with the kids, when I retire I will get one or something better!

Good luck with the trading, sounds like you have a sound strategy! Keep us updated

@Rudra-Radasandaran I'll tag @Adam

@simon-topper The amount of abandoned races this week was an absolute pain!

So, +10 points this week which I should be happy with I know, but I was on course for more until a disastrous -17 day rubbished the week a little!

+10 points is not rubbish I know, and every step in the right direction is, well; a step in the right direction!

On the home front, we still have no dinner table, we did get curtains up in the living room this week and ordered up a beautiful 65" OLED TV which is due for delivery this coming Wednesday! expensive yes but I might actually be able to identify the runners in-play!

I'm still unsure if greening up might cost more than it benefits in the long run & I'm mindful that if you're going to green up, you need to learn how to red up too?

@Andrew-Dobinson personal choice really, I like to keep recording simple otherwise I know I will get behind with it.

Some pros I know don't record anything, which I find mind boggling but I guess P&L is ulitmately king.

Different horses for different courses and all that.

@james-everard good work mate!

@Myles-O-Bery no I wouldn't I just don't trade cup games

@Mark-Girling post here: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion/2

Some good people who can help in there.

thanks

@Julian-Drake-Clarke If that's the case then we need to do some work on mobile optimisation!

Can you let me know the make, model and OS of your tablet and I'll get this fixed ASAP. We want the software to be usable on all devices.

@Julian-Drake-Clarke only strategy videos where the strategies are lays. I guess you would want to look for horses who are slow and don't come back from behind much in the filters then test it for that specific idea.

@Mark-Maguire Ahaha you love the Waitrose!

November bounty, 17 wins out of 21 games backed(home team fave, odds 1.25-1.65) for an 81% strike rate and a 2 point gain. Good to be getting on some games again...