Trading Golf - Masters
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Just looking to see if anyone trades golf. I can sit for hours at the weekend watching Golf and with the lead up to the Masters this weekend was wondering what possibilities there are to make money from it. Looking at the odds for the masters there are some crazy prices out with the top 8 a lot of good prices to be had.
I have never really followed a golf market on betfair so not sure how it reacts but surely a good Thursday Friday for a player there should be a good price movement the further they go up the leaderboard.
For instance can get Tiger at 60 yes not the players he once was but I said that last year and look what happened.
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@simji Yep, I hear you and have had similar challenges and outcomes. I trade across Winner, Top5 and Top 10 markets but it’s really only winner where you have consistent liquidity throughout.
A couple of ideas (strategies is too generous) I’ve been toying with lately:
1. Lay 3rd round leader - Laying 3rd round leader if they’re outside Top 50 OWGR and leading by 3 or less strokes. Historically have poor conversion rate. I need to get sharper on entry odds
2. Laying low faves - Looking where strong faves are too short. Eg: I got Rahm this weekend gone at $1.28 for Top 5 finish after 2nd round. He was up top (or 2nd) but a log jam of players within a few strokes of lead. My theory was there’s likely to be movement and worse case he’s unlikely to won’t shorten much more after 3rd round unless he streaks to lead. I was able to exit after 3rd Rd at @ $1.43 for nice green.
I’m starting to collect data on how the Top 5 shifts through the rounds as I’ve been reading some stuff around the fact we place to much emphasis on players “being hot” and actually history suggests in most cases they come back to the norm during the 4 rounds. I’m also tracking how the winners generally track over the 4 rounds to see what trends I can find (if any).
NB: I’ve tried to find historical data on leaderboards across rounds but haven’t had much luck so I’m starting with my own data.
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@sean-fitzgerald I've trade a little bit. I did trade a lot at one point but couldn't quite get regular green and was getting little frustrated with certain things. Sometimes I would have a player at high odds that o knew will do okay for the first couple of rounds but I can never seen to lay off the original trade. Like Jamieson this week he was only a couple of the lead so went from 320/1 to 110/1 on first round but I couldn't get my 2 pounds stake out at any decent odds.
I find with some of these events even with good liquidity there's massive gaps between prices just have to try.
I've layed a few times the favourite going in and that worked out well but high odds one that goes wrong takes a while to get back.
I do sometimes leave orders in and then forget about it. Like Hatton this week.
So this week had a good green going Into the last round. Woke up late this morning so wasn't able to get out of the market when I wanted to. But to have the top 5 on the leaderboard all in profit. Got to think good chances eh. Until hovland had a superb round and Rory collapsed with only two really to play. Got some liability out so -£22 for the tournament.
Last night layed zalatoris. Only to take the -£2 loss before the playoffs as I didn't know much about list who went on to win in the end. Hindsight.
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Nice mate! Do you trade much on the golf?
I’ve been playing around with min stakes with PGA events since late last season. Starting to refine a few things now and hoping to get some regular green this season. Planning on looking at Euro Tour too.
Keen to chat and bounce ideas.
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In a nice position going into tomorrow. But there is a few close behind big players closely behind im thinking -14/-15 will be the winning score.
Harding is still second in the odd despite being 2 in front of Rory and 3 ahead of the rest of the field. Might close out my position before the start of the round tomorrow could be a bit too nervy to hold for too long as there is too much that could happen. Especially after some of the blowouts in todays round with hatton and westwood throwing it from a good position
\my market cashout is different on the betfair website to the trading software by a bit anyone know any reason why? Im always warey when i have trades/bets on different outcomes
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Just spent the morning sorting out my outright markets for the Masters which starts tomorrow. As I head to my first bio bubble for the year it should help with the boredom.
Anyway have gone with the following and risked 1 point on all.Dustin Johnson 10.0
Justin Thomas 13.5 (into 12.5 now)
John Rahm 13.5
Cam Smith 46.0It’s Thomas, Rahm and Smith I really like I’ve been riding Thomas for a bit now and think he’s due. If Cam Smith goes anywhere near reproducing what he did at Augusta in November he’s going to be right in the mix and will tee off with a new back in town Jordan Speith for first 2 rounds which should help as Speith is finally back on the winners list but the value on him for the Masters has well gone.
DJ is DJ -
@ryan-carruthers good to watch he certainly deserves it with his track record and consistency, usually in contention unlike most of the others
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Small green with JT and Rahm both finishing in the top 10 on the EW market (and I mean small) awesome effort from DJ tho hats off.
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Great to see DJ win it, I love him. Such a legend, so calm yesterday as well around the course.
Hit some amazing shots, one of the reasons I love Augusta is that the best player through the weekend usually wins, have to be solid - course management is so key.
He sure did that didn't he!
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@ryan-carruthers said in Trading Golf - Masters:
I don't blame you, it would take a massive massive implosion now for DJ to lose it from here!
Happened before with Speith in 2016 so just took the green. DJ looked in total control yesterday right enough so if he brings that form today he will blow the rest away
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@bottlabroon said in Trading Golf - Masters:
I posted this on the main thread last week:
*It’s number of years since I’ve traded golf but one strategy that always served me well was trading the tournament leader on the last day.
Anybody who plays golf knows that when standing on the tee some holes ‘suit your eye’ and others don’t. It may be a drawer of the ball on a hole that suits faders or vice versa.
I’d check which holes the tournament leader (or other close contenders) had either scored a birdie or a bogey on at least 2 of the 3 previous rounds and then back or lay (depending on whether 2 birdies or 2 bogeys previously) as they stepped on the tee and then trade out on completion of the hole.
It’s fairly low risk as if the result was a par then it wouldn’t usually move the odds much and it was unusual for somebody to birdie a hole they had bogeyed twice previously or the reverse. Plenty of scratch trades but some really big movements when I caught a birdie/bogey.
Obviously you need the tournament to be fairly competitive at the time, if somebody is 5 clear in the back 9 it’s not going to result in large odds swing.*
I'll post the qualifiers for the final round and see how it goes.
Unfortunately this doesn't look to be the tournament to test this again, with DJ being 4 clear. I used to stick to trading players in the 2.00-6.00 price range but I'll post the analysis in the unlikely event DJ blows up.
D Johnson
Hole 2 - Back (Par)
Hole 12 - Back (Par)
Hole 13 - Back (Birdie)S Im
Hole 2 - Back (Birdie)
Hole 3 - Back (Birdie)
Hole 9 - Back (Par)
Hole 13 - Back (Birdie)A Ancer
Hole 8 - Back (Birdie)
Hole 15 - Back (Birdie)
Hole 16 - Back (Par)C Smith
Hole 2 - Back (Birdie)
Hole 4 - Back (Par)
Hole 10 - Lay (Par)
Hole 13 - Back (Par)
Hole 15 - Back (Birdie)J Thomas
Hole 2 - Back (Bogey)
Hole 8 - Back (Birdie)
Hole 16 - Back (Par) -
Decided to take the Green and sit back and relax watching it on Sunday.
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I think some great shouts here
Justin Thomas
John Rahm
Matt Kuchar isnt a bad shout either he can really handle himself on courseI like the DJ one to be honest, there's a lot of critics to him
Tyrrell Hatton @ 21 on the EW 10 places isn't a bad shout in my view either
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I had a bit of a dabble last year and had some luck with Tiger last year at 10’s after 2 rounds and something similar with Tommy Fleetwood maybe at the Open last year? To be honest the Tiger back was sentimental but the Fleetwood one was a cool introduction to Golf.
Like a few here I’m looking at John Rahm for an EW as well as Justin Thomas. A bit more reading tonight to maybe find one more for a EW as Betfair are paying out top 10 and also hopefully a chance to see if anyone from @bottlabroon final day strategy qualifies. -
@bottlabroon said in Trading Golf - Masters:
I posted this on the main thread last week:
*It’s number of years since I’ve traded golf but one strategy that always served me well was trading the tournament leader on the last day.
Anybody who plays golf knows that when standing on the tee some holes ‘suit your eye’ and others don’t. It may be a drawer of the ball on a hole that suits faders or vice versa.
I’d check which holes the tournament leader (or other close contenders) had either scored a birdie or a bogey on at least 2 of the 3 previous rounds and then back or lay (depending on whether 2 birdies or 2 bogeys previously) as they stepped on the tee and then trade out on completion of the hole.
It’s fairly low risk as if the result was a par then it wouldn’t usually move the odds much and it was unusual for somebody to birdie a hole they had bogeyed twice previously or the reverse. Plenty of scratch trades but some really big movements when I caught a birdie/bogey.
Obviously you need the tournament to be fairly competitive at the time, if somebody is 5 clear in the back 9 it’s not going to result in large odds swing.*
I'll post the qualifiers for the final round and see how it goes.
Really interesting strategy and I’ll be following along on hopefully an enthralling last day come Sunday.
bank bit small at present