Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    17 Topics
    6k Posts

    I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

    Player Matches Won >= 0
    Category WTA-Singles
    Scope Last 10 Matches
    ✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type

    IMG_1029.png

    IMG_1031.png

    IMG_1030.png

    IMG_1032.png

    In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

    You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
    For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    Cricket video:

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    59 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Kurtis-Steven-Graham Hard to say.

    It's the actual rules that tell you what is happening.

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    362 Posts

    A few years ago I wrote a Betfair Trading bankroll managment guide for traders of all types. It is still a great article and worth reading for all traders you can [FIND IT HERE](https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need).

    However, as lots of our Football Trading and Horse Racing traders are now using set and forget strategies, I realise we also need a guide for that type of betting bankroll.

    Set and forget strategies are essentially just betting on an outcome and letting the bet run. 

    This style of Betfair trading has become more popular in recent years, the idea of sitting at a PC all day trading is not only too time consuming but also not neccessary to make money on Betfair. 

    So, hey, why not save time and effort and use straight bets to make money? I mean if it makes money who cares what type of betting it is?

    Anyway, if you are at all interesting in set and forget betting on Betfair then you need to read this guide!

     

    What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader?

    We get asked this question all the time! However, the answer is different for set and forget betting...

    The key thing you have to be aware of when placing bets with no intention of trading out is that you will lose 100% of the stake you use. 

    This is obvious but the reason I mention this is that you will have more variance than the typical trading strategy, in some cases a lot more. 

    It's simple maths really, if you lose 100% of your stake when you lose a bet your losing runs will be more impactful. 

    So the way to combat this problem is proper bankroll management! 

    Every time we bet we are risking that stake, so let's think about each bet as a BIG BET.

    Our bankroll needs to have a certain amount of BIG BETS to cover a losing run.

    Not only that we don't want one bad day to cripple our bankroll, so we need enough to be extra safe.

    How many BIG BETS would you want?

    Well in trading you can get away with 50 (2% of your bankroll 2x50=100%) because you will not lose the full stake, you will be cashing out for a profit or a loss at some point.

    However, when straight betting 50 is not enough. Imagine you have a losing streak of 10 bets, this can easily happen when betting at odds against even when betting at evens.

    Suddenly you have lost 20% of your bankroll and that could be in one day. 

    That's not a sensible staking plan.

    So how many BIG BETS do we need.

    Well it depends on the odds you are backing at. Let me explain.

    If you are generally betting at odds on maybe 1.5 or below you could probably get away with 100 big bets.

    1% of your bankroll per bet should be fine because you will win at least 66% of the time on average. 

    If you are betting at evens to 3.0 you could probably get away with 200 big bets. (0.5% of your bankroll)

    This is actually the kind of bankroll professional poker players use, they will have 200-250 buy ins behind them (so when you see a player lose their buy in on TV, it's not the big deal the broadcasters will try and tell you!).

    If you are betting at odds above 3.0 it can get tricky, you will want more big bets the higher the odds go! Maybe 500+!

     

    So Let's Talk Money! 

    All this talk of percentages is great and definitely where you should start thinking from, rather than financial amounts but I know most of you will be asking, how much money do I need to bet on Betfair?

    Firstly, if you are new to trading you should start low, go as low as possible £1 bets so you need enough money to have as many £1 big bets as you need. £100 for 100 big bets, £250 for 250 big bets and so on. 

    Then you can raise stakes as you earn money according to your percentages, so you use the same percentage per bet but increase the stake naturally as your bankroll grows. 

    So if I doubled my bankroll from £100 to £200, I would now use £2 stakes and still have 100 big bets.

    If you want to know what bankroll I recommend for pro traders it is still the same as the previous article.

    If you are placing multiple bets per day on a variety of profitable strategies £5,000-£10,000 will be a great starting point, you can easily go semi-pro at that level, however, because of the low stake percentages you are probably going to want to get that up to £20,000+ eventually.

    Although, as I always state there is no rush! 

    Remember set and forget is so easy, you just place your bets and get on with your day, so there is less pressure to make big money because you are not wasting any time where you could be doing other things.

     

    What if it goes wrong?

    My simple rule that I have been told by so many traders over the years was godsend is this:

    If I lose half my bankroll I halve my stakes. (Obviously if you are using £1 minimum this can't be done but it's not a major worry at that level, you just may need to look at a different portfolio of strategies).

    By halving our stakes we give ourselves another chance to have success and it's nearly impossible to 'bust out' and lose our whole bankroll. 

    If I am using a £5,000 bankroll and £50 stakes then if it gets to £2,500 I will reduce stakes to £25 and so on. 

    This gives you maximum bankroll protecting and you will never be the victim of a horror 'I LOST MY BANKROLL IN ONE DAY' story!

     

    One final bit of advice...

    Please test your strategies before putting money on them, don't just backtest but forward test them as you go.

    Give it 6-12 months and really get a feel for what works and what doesn't before putting serious money down! 

    The biggest mistake Betfair traders make is to bet heavily on a strategy they have not fully tested, which usually leads to disaster.

    If you have any more questions about this please do not hesitate to ask me on the forum or contact my via email [email protected]

    Be safe with your bankroll, it will become your best friend in hard times!

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    43 Topics
    850 Posts

    @alexander-hughes It's been a long time since I used it to be honest. I guess the BD version hasn't had the same development as the BF one, but surely a basic bot should be transferable

  • 90 Topics
    5k Posts

    @Ryan from what I read the main problem people had with it was diversity. Didn't like black hobbits and black elves. Brown dwarves a no go too!

    I'm really enjoying it. Not quite Helms Deep but when it gets going the battle scenes are pretty good.

    Creation of certain landmarks from the Lord Of The Ring are pretty amazing to see as well.

    I'm on episode 7 but due to googling stuff I've spoilt one of the major plot arcs of this season looking to see if there were pics of Sauron......doh!!

  • 0 Votes
    9 Posts
    171 Views

    @Everyone for anyone who looked at our site and may have been considering one of our prints.

    We now have an etsy shop and are running a 20% discount for the next day on selected items.

    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/E1GwZZgUsxEGKYDH/

    Go check us out

  • Lay The Beaten Favourite - Greyhounds

  • NFL Strategies

    1 Votes
    2k Posts
    101k Views

    @Martin said in NFL Strategies:

    @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I play a lot in the outrights markets with NFL as game to game can be very unpredictable set and forget.

    I like this idea though! Let me know how it gets on!

    It needs a bit of research but the basic idea seems reasonable. I'll come back to you after 25 results for an early update.

  • Darts Trading

    1 Votes
    3 Posts
    63 Views

    @Martin I love it but I don't trade it at all sadly, I know that there used to be a cricket trader here who played around with it.

    Nothing for me though, it's also a sport that I just want to enjoy instead of looking for angles 😄

    Me and the wife love watching the darts at xmas lol

  • Selection suggestions.

    0 Votes
    8 Posts
    162 Views

    @Mark-Maguire thanks for your informed response, the thing that's stuck in my head since I started all this was the advice on sticking to one strategy and learn the rules of that one before moving onto another, another thing I've learnt is recording absolutely everything, goals, times, ht/ft scores etc, like what you've mentioned in your reply, having all the info to read and looking over it to find patterns then trying to make my own strategy out of my findings, I have numerous spreadsheets of info I've collected from the preset filters, I need to keep on doing this for a bit longer to gather as much as I can then hopefully use it to my advantage .

  • SOFTWARE

    0 Votes
    18 Posts
    254 Views

    @Adam Thanks for sharing your story, I do fear that I will be just going through the motions before giving it all up to do this full time. Tbh, I think it's just a matter of time. There is so much more to explore 🙂 I will keep you posted.

  • pre season trading

    1 Votes
    7 Posts
    126 Views

    @Adam said in pre season trading:

    @james-everard said in pre season trading:

    Interesting for a potential accumulator if you can find a site that has Nat North , find hardly any betting sites go below the conference national which is a shame as i like my non league football. Had a look and can't find any sites

    Agreed! Some of the best opportunities for football in the non-league games. Paddy and Coral used to do it and there used to be some Irish bookies that offered them but I can't find them now.

    Odds are usually decent as well, faves pretty much always over 1.5 even though they generally win over 70% of the time.

    i think i did an accumulator last season with a bookies that went down to Conference South/North level but can''t find anyone this season .

    Will look at potential trading nearer to the season start (taking the advice as will know better once most of the transfers have occurred )

  • Super Late Goals Strategy

    1 Votes
    27 Posts
    3k Views

    Hi Martin - would it be possible to get a copy of your sheet for the Super Late Goals filter? I can't seem to find it on the shared profitable members sheet. Thanks

  • Beliefs

    0 Votes
    4 Posts
    73 Views

    I used to believe winning the battle each day was the key to being profitable with trading. Turns out you winning the long term war is far more important.

  • ADHD & Trading

    3 Votes
    9 Posts
    194 Views

    @Akiva-Anderson You're doing god's work my friend, thank you.

  • Football Scalping

    2 Votes
    24 Posts
    4k Views

    @james-heathcote-0 Hi James. I came across your post about your automated pre-match scalping (2 years ago). Are you still implementing this? I would love to implement myself if you wouldn't mind sharing? does it take into account the weight of money or anything like that?

  • BTC Daily Email Q and A Thread

    0 Votes
    258 Posts
    19k Views

    @martin Condolences for the troubled times

  • Overfiltering

    1 Votes
    15 Posts
    329 Views

    @michael-doering

    PG= Per Tor
    PM= Per Spiel

    Durchschnittliche Scoring Time kann man auch in BTC Statistiken finden:
    0_1681333269432_61cb067d-6924-4dbc-8a69-8c4dffd02d03-image.png

  • 0 Votes
    329 Posts
    44k Views

    @conor-medlyn Hey buddy,

    I will speak with Martin about this one as it's my strategy but I didn't track it on those sheets, Martin did.

    I have been running it since the start all those years ago 16/17 now, which is scary. It's always been profitable year on year for me hence why I still use it.

    It is a riskier long term strategy as the losses hurt more because of laying.

  • Six nations

    2 Votes
    16 Posts
    1k Views

    Might lay France to win the world cup after that performance today. Odds of about 4 atm.

  • Pinnacle Sportsbook

    1 Votes
    1 Posts
    143 Views
    No one has replied
  • my trading strategy.

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    1k Views

    @lee-woodman ok thanks alot mate appreciate it

  • Bitcoin Betting Exchange

    1 Votes
    3 Posts
    257 Views

    Yep I sold all my crypto lol scares me as well well to volatile for my liking lol

  • Betfair T&C changes.

    0 Votes
    18 Posts
    1k Views

    @richard-lillis-0 said in Betfair T&C changes.:

    @john-folan I am raising again with all this information - will keep you updated.

    I get the feeling there is something else they are annoyed with that they have not told you, I hope you manage to ge tit overturned

  • PDC World Darts Championship Outrights

    3 Votes
    5 Posts
    386 Views

    @chris-osborne Ahahahaha me and my grammar and spelling