Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    28 Topics
    6k Posts
    Tennis Trading for a 10-Year-Old Part 7: The Complete Trading Plan

    Now let's put everything together.

    Imagine you are learning to ride a bicycle.

    You don't try tricks on day one.

    You learn the basics first.

    The article says the same thing.

    Step 1

    Choose a good match.

    Look for:

    ✓ Similar skill levels

    ✓ Competitive match

    ✓ Good liquidity

    ✓ Chance of service breaks

    Avoid:

    ✗ Huge favourites

    ✗ Very low odds favourites

    ✗ Poor liquidity

    Step 2

    Pick Only 2 or 3 Entry Points

    Do not trade every score.

    The article specifically recommends focusing on a few situations.

    Examples:

    15-15

    15-30

    0-30

    Learn those first.

    Become comfortable.

    Master them.

    Step 3

    Enter The Trade

    Place your back or lay position.

    Before the next point starts.

    Now wait.

    Step 4

    Watch The Next Point

    This is important.

    You are not predicting the whole match.

    You are mostly trading the next point.

    If the point goes your way:

    Great.

    Take profit.

    Or continue if the next score creates another strong setup.

    Step 5

    Cut Losses Quickly

    This is where beginners struggle.

    The article repeats this idea many times.

    If the point goes against you:

    Exit.

    Take the small loss.

    Move on.

    Do not hope.

    Do not pray.

    Do not argue with the market.

    Just exit.

    Step 6

    Hedge

    After the trade finishes:

    Green up.

    Lock in profit.

    Reset.

    Look for the next opportunity.

    The Biggest Mistake Beginners Make

    Beginners often think:

    "I need to be right every time."

    Wrong.

    Professional traders know they will lose many trades.

    The goal is:

    Lose small.

    Win bigger.

    Repeat.

    The Entire Strategy In One Paragraph

    Find score situations where a break of serve might happen.

    Enter trades where the possible profit is larger than the possible loss.

    If the next point goes against you, exit immediately.

    If it goes your way, take profit or continue when the next score creates even more pressure.

    Repeat this process many times during the match while protecting your money with small losses and disciplined exits.

    That is the entire strategy explained as simply as possible.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    16k Posts

    @Richard-Futter easy money well done!

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    73 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Darran-Padley there's no definitive wrong or right way to trade or bet these games but the best way to find out is to forward test them, using small stakes - I'd stick to one approach for say a couple hundred results and see what you find. You can look to re-assess and adjust your approach after you have a fair idea of how it all works and whether or not it suits you (most important factor of all).

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    367 Posts

    @Jonathan-McDaid love it cheers!

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    47 Topics
    861 Posts

    BF Bot Manager has in play stats available as parameters and you can automate your trading using them

  • 110 Topics
    5k Posts

    six winnings in a row - WOPS

    Cheers

  • Pre-Match Soccer Trading Thread

    0 Votes
    14 Posts
    770 Views

    Wolves on one tick recycle for me today & Liverpool are also on it.

    Graphs are pretty strong up and down a tick for them both at present - will do it all day if the graph stays the same.

  • Trading Software

    1 Votes
    17 Posts
    886 Views

    I really like BF Bot manager like Charles for automation purposes. Once setup you can just leave the computer on and it does all the work.
    I have it directly linked to Proform too, so it just takes my selection everyday and bets on them.

  • Weight of Money Help.

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    203 Views
    No one has replied
  • Simons April Trades

    3 Votes
    54 Posts
    4k Views

    @gary-brown hi Gary, yeah I rarely actually LCS. I either back the next overs when it reaches 1.6, or I LTD if it’s a draw. Keeps liabilities down, I’m comfortable at these odds and more importantly, it seems to be profitable. Shame about my another strategies haha!

  • Newbie Matched Betting Insurance

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    216 Views
    No one has replied
  • Automation/VPS/Servers

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    285 Views
    No one has replied
  • Trade Post Mortem Thread

    1 Votes
    8 Posts
    944 Views

    I could fill a couple of really boring books with all the dumb things I did in the first few years after 'discovering' that i could actually trade on betfair.

    My biggest single loss ever wasn't on horses though (although when on tilt a couple of times blew my entire bankroll in a single afternoon of racing) but on the T20 World Cup cricket when England played West Indies. I had a very substantial initial wager on England, quadrupled it at the end of the England innings and then even added more after Windies lost early wickets at some stupidly low price. I am embarrassed to say that I left it all out there...didn't even bother to eliminate my liability and then watched it evaporate in the last over.

    I look at that now and cringe......sheer greed and arrogance and probably a desperate need to recoup losses on some 'system' that I was staking 15-20% of my bankroll on after a few successful trades.

  • Rugby League Trading

    1 Votes
    6 Posts
    470 Views

    @col I’ve been an NRL punter previously but keen to explore trading angles.

  • Traderline (Mobile APP)

    1 Votes
    6 Posts
    466 Views

    @martin-futter me too but needs must at the moment i'm afraid!

  • Multiple Betfair Accounts

    0 Votes
    11 Posts
    729 Views

    @martin-futter 1 in the car, 1 in the living room & 1 in the bog? 😆

  • TV Specials Trading

    0 Votes
    14 Posts
    796 Views

    @rob-lawton

    I agree that it was funny!! She's a fan favourite as well isn't she so she will do well on that front.

    Melody is 😍

  • NBA trading

    0 Votes
    6 Posts
    771 Views

    I'm hoping someone may be able to point me in the right direction with this, and to anyone who does, I greatly appreciate it. I want to be able to backtest previous games within my own statistics to see the highest prices matched in-play. As we discussed, there are huge swings in NBA. In the picture below and spreadsheet attached are predictions that I currently do not use due to it not being profitable. BUT If I can test at what point they are profitable along with the likelihood of being matched then may be able to make them profitable. As you can see, its -0.89% POT from 2772 games over 12 seasons on corporate/vegas odds (I get my data from bigdataball and they use vegas odds) So Betfair can beat those odds anyway, but knowing ratio of the likelihood of being matched at X odds can make these profitable. So is there a source that says the highest matched prices of completed markets? I tried to get data from https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home but I couldnt get the file to work at all. If anyone has any helpful info on getting data or even to get the bloody file to open I'd greatly appreciate it!
    0_1547025203319_Betfair ML backtest.png

    0_1547025342067_Betfair moneyline backtest.xlsx

  • Darts - PDC World Championship

    1 Votes
    7 Posts
    474 Views

    Have greened up now. -0.5 pts on White, -1 pt on Suljovic and +5 on Smith. Happy with that.
    Going to let the 9 dart bet run the course. 2 games left, fingers crossed.

  • Deontay Wilder v Tyson Fury

    1 Votes
    3 Posts
    322 Views

    what a fight and result! can't wait for a rematch

  • Realistic Expectations

    2 Votes
    18 Posts
    865 Views

    @keith-anderson yeah before trading I did thin value betting, still do it at the moment but tailing it off as trading is taking up more of my time. So I’m well used to variance, but with betting it’s usually lots of small losses then one big one, whereas with trading it’s lots of small wins. So that for me is taking some getting used to.

  • X-Factor Trading

    0 Votes
    10 Posts
    573 Views

    @janne-rusi In all honesty, that’s the plan. All trading and the like in Q4 all goes towards Christmas.
    Together with this and I’m A Celebrity (backed Harry Redknapp early and secured a nice profit there) she’s in for a treat! 😂

  • Habits

    2 Votes
    10 Posts
    601 Views

    @luke-ridger I can understand this!

  • Calling all traders......

    0 Votes
    7 Posts
    472 Views

    @luke-ridger Interesting

  • Smarkets Pro Tier - New Service?

    0 Votes
    6 Posts
    422 Views

    @martin-futter @Luke-Ridger

    All I want from the Trump campaign is to get online gambling in the states!