AFL Trading Season 2021
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I was inspired to start this thread after reading the introduction from Pete and that Sean had replied to in regard to trading the AFL season this year.
Trading the AFL has itched at me since I started trading but last season was not the year to start with no crowds, shortened quarters and a shortened home and away season played primarily in hubs. I think that personally the AFL is an awesome league and Australian rules football is made to trade. It’s high scoring and has plenty of momentum shifts teams can turn a hefty deficit around in the space of a quarter and Pete has already bought up a great strategy.
@Peter Morrell and @Sean-Fitzgerald
I hope you don’t mind me tagging you guys and starting this thread but it could be a cool place for us to bounce ideas off each other now that the new season is finally upon us and things are back to normal from a seasons perspective. -
Interesting article here (hopefully the link works) on how the AFL Top 8 doesn’t shift too much from what it looks like in Round 7.
Potential trade opportunities here. Richmond is possibly the best lay opportunity at face value?
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@james-woodroffe Hey mate do you still trade AFL? Being from Australia I'm interested in trading some Aussie sport due to the more sociable hours and AFL games are known for comebacks.
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Best 3rd quarter team in the competition turn a 19 point deficit mid way thru the quarter to a
24 point lead!! Melbourne now into 1.13. Love this sport it’s trading heaven. -
Melbourne have been as low as 1.22 in the 1st quarter out fo 3.9 in the 3rd quarter and now back into 1.50. Great game just quietly.
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AFL Grand Final day tomorrow live on BT Sport from
10am as it’s in Perth thanks to the Rona. Melbourne looking for their first Premiership in 57 years and after breaking a 62 year drought of their own in 2016 the Western Bulldogs will look to win just their 3rd title.
Melbourne are a 1.74 favourite and the line is 7.5 points. I’m thinking that Melbourne could be worth a lay at those odds as this will be just their 2nd game in 4 weeks and despite being the best side all year there is no doubt they will feel the pressure early on. It’s worth noting that the Dogs have lost just 3 opening quarters this year they are fast starters.. Both matches this year between the two sides have been tight physical contests and I can’t see tomorrow being any different. Something to be aware of is that both sides can get on pretty devastating runs of scoring heavily so it wouldn’t surprise me if either side built a healthy lead only to be reeled back in. Great swing opportunities if a side gets 15-20 points up. Haven’t been this excited about a GF for quite some time and wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Doggies win but I can’t call it.
You can also bet on the Norm Smith Medal which is for the best player on the ground. Traditionally mid fielders who score goals grab the votes for what it’s worth I’m having a little punt on the following players. Melbourne skipper Max Gawn 10.0 and fellow Demon Christian Petracca 7.6 and Bulldog captain Marcus Bontempelli 10.0 and if the Dogs win Bailey Smith at 19.0 is great value. -
@ian-parry said in AFL Trading Season 2021:
@jason-f said in AFL Trading Season 2021:
Ah I see. Yeah I had thought about that but didn't think it would work with an Australian account. It seems strange that they would let an account with an Australian address bet in-play if they sign in from NZ. But anyway if it works it works. How long have you been doing it? The only thing that worries me is if they find out will my account risk suspension?
Hey Ian - I successfully traded via VPN for a few years. I got a warning from Betfair recently. From what I can gather I was unlucky as many others have never had any issues over many years.
I suggest if you’re going to do it that you use the VPN all the time rather than only when trading in-play. -
Remarkable semi final in the AFL today with a 1 point winning margin.
The losers Brisbane traded as low as 1.14 and the winners out to 8.20.
Just under £600,000 in the market. I’m curious to know how that compares with the NFL as far as liquidity goes?
The Covid situation in Oz hasn’t helped as far as crowds go during the season so attention waned.
Still it’s a got so much potential the markets are as crazy as tennis and cricket. -
@james-woodroffe said in AFL Trading Season 2021:
Short and sharp here. Just backed Greater Western Sydney at 18.50 to win the AFL Premiership this year. I can’t remember a season as even as this and reckon they’re great shot to make a Preliminary final which should see those odds tumble. Hopefully a smart play to green up when we down to 4 clubs left and lock in some profit with the finals approaching next week.
The back of GWS came unstuck today for a half point loss. They lost their best player to a 3 week suspension during the week which didn’t help. History does also show that sides who earn the double chance and lose in week 1 inevitably bounce back in week 2 which is what happened today.
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@martin just reckon that they’re peaking at the right time of the season and have the experience.
I’d have them shorter so jumped at 18.50. -
@james-woodroffe yeah I like that thinking, find some long shot value to green up or remove liability
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Short and sharp here. Just backed Greater Western Sydney at 18.50 to win the AFL Premiership this year. I can’t remember a season as even as this and reckon they’re great shot to make a Preliminary final which should see those odds tumble. Hopefully a smart play to green up when we down to 4 clubs left and lock in some profit with the finals approaching next week.
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@jason-f Hey mate, sorry for the slow reply. My bots mainly scalp. I have some algorithms that are profitable but once I raise the stakes they start to become less profitable. But small profits are better than no profits.
One example is when I search for what I call a liquidity valley - that is when the liquidity at the price above the current lay price is 5 times the liquidity at the lay price, and the liquidity at the price just below the current back price is 5 times the liquidity at the back price. I'd then look for the inverse situation at the same prices for volume - so volume is much higher at the back and lay price than at the prices just outside them.
This approach is profitable but the situation occurs rarely.
What have you been doing with your bots? Do you use betangel?
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@ian-parry Good luck with that bud 3 months off would be great lol, Im lucky enough to be home by 2pm work days hence why i asked, its frustrating trying to get anything decent matched.. Been playing around with some B2L and LTF bots still early days with them. What areas are you hitting with your bot? if you dont mind me asking
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@Jason-F No I don't bother trading Aussie racing manually other than Saturday. Although I work all week so I don't get the chance. I do have a bot that I run on them which is profitable but doesn't make that much and I think it's at the limit of what it can earn. I need to work on my manual trading but it's hard to get the chance with working full time. I'm taking 3 months leave without pay soon though to really focus on it. During that time I'll probably try to trade most days, both on our racing and on British racing. We'll see how it goes.
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@ian-parry yea i was a bit suss at the start when i was first told but 6 months without issue so far, especially when i've been learning to trade our horse racing and then hour later i'm in NZ trading the A league lol. In terms of account suspension i'm hoping BF is going with the ignorance is bliss approach still collecting their commission rather then they just haven't caught on yet.. Do you even bother trading our horse racing sun - fri? Does seem like a waste of time with the lack of liquidity
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@james-woodroffe said in AFL Trading Season 2021:
The only problem here in the U.K. is when those opportunities present themselves at 5am on a Sunday morning and dragging yourself out of bed to watch North or the Gold Coast play
Lol yeah welcome to our life. I mainly trade horse racing. This is great in Australia on a Saturday but other days lack liquidity. The liquidity overnight on British races is so much better. The amount of times I've dragged my sorry ass into work all bleary-eyed because I'd just needed to trade one more race at 2 in the morning.
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@jason-f said in AFL Trading Season 2021:
@ian-parry Hey mate you can get around the australian in play laws by using a VPN, i've been setting it to new zealand and haven't had any issues..
Ah I see. Yeah I had thought about that but didn't think it would work with an Australian account. It seems strange that they would let an account with an Australian address bet in-play if they sign in from NZ. But anyway if it works it works. How long have you been doing it? The only thing that worries me is if they find out will my account risk suspension?
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@jason-f said in AFL Trading Season 2021:
@ian-parry Hey mate you can get around the australian in play laws by using a VPN, i've been setting it to new zealand and haven't had any issues..
Great call I totally forgot about VPN.
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@ian-parry Hey mate you can get around the australian in play laws by using a VPN, i've been setting it to new zealand and haven't had any issues..
