Tennis Trading for a 10-Year-Old Part 7: The Complete Trading Plan

Now let's put everything together.

Imagine you are learning to ride a bicycle.

You don't try tricks on day one.

You learn the basics first.

The article says the same thing.

Step 1

Choose a good match.

Look for:

✓ Similar skill levels

✓ Competitive match

✓ Good liquidity

✓ Chance of service breaks

Avoid:

✗ Huge favourites

✗ Very low odds favourites

✗ Poor liquidity

Step 2

Pick Only 2 or 3 Entry Points

Do not trade every score.

The article specifically recommends focusing on a few situations.

Examples:

15-15

15-30

0-30

Learn those first.

Become comfortable.

Master them.

Step 3

Enter The Trade

Place your back or lay position.

Before the next point starts.

Now wait.

Step 4

Watch The Next Point

This is important.

You are not predicting the whole match.

You are mostly trading the next point.

If the point goes your way:

Great.

Take profit.

Or continue if the next score creates another strong setup.

Step 5

Cut Losses Quickly

This is where beginners struggle.

The article repeats this idea many times.

If the point goes against you:

Exit.

Take the small loss.

Move on.

Do not hope.

Do not pray.

Do not argue with the market.

Just exit.

Step 6

Hedge

After the trade finishes:

Green up.

Lock in profit.

Reset.

Look for the next opportunity.

The Biggest Mistake Beginners Make

Beginners often think:

"I need to be right every time."

Wrong.

Professional traders know they will lose many trades.

The goal is:

Lose small.

Win bigger.

Repeat.

The Entire Strategy In One Paragraph

Find score situations where a break of serve might happen.

Enter trades where the possible profit is larger than the possible loss.

If the next point goes against you, exit immediately.

If it goes your way, take profit or continue when the next score creates even more pressure.

Repeat this process many times during the match while protecting your money with small losses and disciplined exits.

That is the entire strategy explained as simply as possible.

I have this problem with the French Open - no odds data in the stats

@Chris-King very interested in your selection filters. So what angle do you trade using your filters. I can see that you are identifying a strong underdog. Are you looking to back the dog pre match and hope they make a fast start and win the 1st set?

@Simon-Hardy-0:

To find the higher ranked player, filter on:
Player -> Total -> Rank -> less than -> Total for opposition

The problem is you can't then do "price for this player" unfortunately. You can filter on the BF prices via Betfair -> Odds but only referencing specific selections.

If you have the "BF Prices" tab open in the main view, filter on the rank as above and then click each match in the filter results table, you should be able to narrow it down pretty quick.

@James-Menhenitt The idea of the software is to find matches that fit the criteria you're looking for, so if you're filtering on player stats then it will find matches where either player meets your criteria. You can then click each match in the results to see the breakdown of all the stats for each player.

If you just want to see the percentage for a certain stat and you don't have any specific value in mind, just filter on greater than/equal to 0.

@Andreas-Heinzl There's no Won Serve : Serve ratio in the stats unfortunately. The closest would be "service games won" in the Player -> Percentages section, which can be broken down by set if desired.

There are also some sequence stats based on "Won set 1 lost next", etc.

Let me and Fairbot run some scalping sessions - after that I can tell more about the procedure - cheers

@Ian-Thompson Always gentle with everybody here matey, this is a safe place.

When it comes to these I always played the day and not the trade, so what I mean by that is that I would research the games for that day and then weigh up the other opportunities against these if these games were in my view a better opportunity then I would stick with them, if not then I would take the losses as usually it was minimal.

So this is more of a theoretical framework for people to refine, or have you actually tested it in live trading? Filtering for comebacks makes sense in theory, but Betfair odds already factor in a lot of this. Have you checked if this actually finds value compared to market pricing?

Also, things like ranking bands and win percentages aren’t that reliable. Players perform completely differently across hard, clay, and grass, and those stats get skewed fast. Looking at the last 10 matches one player might have just come off a Grand Slam, while the other was playing in Challenger events, so it’s not always a fair comparison.

Have you refined and tested this yourself? How has it been doing?

@Jonathan-McDaid that is a short price! Especially for a Grand Slam, this isn't prime Federer or Nadal is it. He is 2.48 to lay on Betfair so 2.2 is definitely a value lay price.

@Alex-Rendell said in Tennis Simulation Software - Build Playing Model First - Then Execute:

@Patrik-Mellqvist no need for that really - what you say is as clear as mud half the time!

Yes I fully understand - I stand with my point of view and move forward no matter what others think or have as an opinion - and I believe the software is a good way to test and validate tennis strategy - you can think differently - don't affect me

So I will - even if you don't like it - post my thoughts and review of the software after testing ...

Cheers

I like this way of thinking Chris. Simple but effective in terms of research as the player 1 and 2 are by each other. Flashscore is my usual go to for looking at players pre match starting price as it’s all there in columns. But Flashscore doesn’t show everything. How do you get on with these chosen matches? Do you find there are a lot of underdogs that win the second set if they have a better win percentage than the favourite over the last 10 matches?

@Martin yes they are. I’ve been burnt a few times with the sudden MTO before I got the app. Also when I forget to turn off notifications at night from it my wife goes mad lol. 😅

@Caroline-Middlebrook When I first started trading tennis I stuck to the ATP and WTA. The challengers are harder to trade for me and also less predictable. You could be trading someone who is 435 in world against someone who is 760 in the world. Anything can happen. I like trading WTA as there are more breaks of serve and also there are good swings when the ladies confirm their breaks by holding their own serve. Best of luck.

@declan-henderson I used to be, spent 14 years doing it. Happy to help on that sport was my fave sport to trade.

Thanks all, I did actually stumble on this afterwards, but great to have comfirmation.

@andrew-findlater Games will probably pick up next week when post Wimbledon tournaments start.

Also the filters your referring to are odds dependent and may not qualify

The only game in the fixtures is the mens final tomorrow which will qualify for Ryan's 33/44 filter tomorrow.

Recap of the week end

Otte - Berrettini

Layed Berrettini after the first set, Otte did not have a chance ended
-0,2 points

Medved - Mannarino

Layed Medved during the 2nd set when game 4-2 for Medved,Mannarino got the break back and went 5-5,
cash out for a +0.5 Profit

Evans - Thompson
Layed Evans begginign of the 2nd set,Thompson lost the serve ,Layed Evans again and Thompson got the Break back,5th game Thompson went 40-0
cash out for +0,4 profit

Zeng - Wang Layed Zeng during the 2nd set when 3-3 @1.19 Wang won the break and close the 2nd set winning

Cash out for +1.2 profit

Murray - Berrettini

Layed Berrettini at the beggining of the 2nd,Murray won the 2nd set
Cash out for a profit +0.8

All the players that I have layed Won the game but I ended up in +2.7p
There is a Room in the Tennis which makes me exited to get into more than before.

My risk as always been between 0.3/0.6p so that shows huge potential.
I had to watch to game and be on top of it,as a game can be easily lost even if a players goes 40-0.Had to be there and ready to intervene.
Downside you can watch the game but you need to watch the score as well as picture are delayed and a second can mean lose. So not really exited to watch a game knowing the score ahead.But once out of the trade I have ended up watching the game fully and enjoy.

New tournament starting from tomorrow.Definitely something to look forward

@ryan it makes sense totally and football is a sport I have followed for over 50 years

@chris-osborne Hey thats really good advice about the WTA, and confirms my own thinking from watching both types of match, so thanks for that.