So this is more of a theoretical framework for people to refine, or have you actually tested it in live trading? Filtering for comebacks makes sense in theory, but Betfair odds already factor in a lot of this. Have you checked if this actually finds value compared to market pricing?

Also, things like ranking bands and win percentages aren’t that reliable. Players perform completely differently across hard, clay, and grass, and those stats get skewed fast. Looking at the last 10 matches one player might have just come off a Grand Slam, while the other was playing in Challenger events, so it’s not always a fair comparison.

Have you refined and tested this yourself? How has it been doing?

@Jonathan-McDaid that is a short price! Especially for a Grand Slam, this isn't prime Federer or Nadal is it. He is 2.48 to lay on Betfair so 2.2 is definitely a value lay price.

@Alex-Rendell said in Tennis Simulation Software - Build Playing Model First - Then Execute:

@Patrik-Mellqvist no need for that really - what you say is as clear as mud half the time!

Yes I fully understand - I stand with my point of view and move forward no matter what others think or have as an opinion - and I believe the software is a good way to test and validate tennis strategy - you can think differently - don't affect me

So I will - even if you don't like it - post my thoughts and review of the software after testing ...

Cheers

@Tony-Hastie Thanks for that Tony. Much appreciated. I’ve just renewed my sub with Fairbot for the next 12 months but will be getting Betfair bot for Christmas. Hopefully we can exchange some ideas for getting a really profitable tennis strategy in the future. 👍 I’m always up for a bit of brainstorming too. Just made a tennis strategy : Back the looser of the first set and will let you know how it goes in testing.

I like this way of thinking Chris. Simple but effective in terms of research as the player 1 and 2 are by each other. Flashscore is my usual go to for looking at players pre match starting price as it’s all there in columns. But Flashscore doesn’t show everything. How do you get on with these chosen matches? Do you find there are a lot of underdogs that win the second set if they have a better win percentage than the favourite over the last 10 matches?

@Martin yes they are. I’ve been burnt a few times with the sudden MTO before I got the app. Also when I forget to turn off notifications at night from it my wife goes mad lol. 😅

@Caroline-Middlebrook When I first started trading tennis I stuck to the ATP and WTA. The challengers are harder to trade for me and also less predictable. You could be trading someone who is 435 in world against someone who is 760 in the world. Anything can happen. I like trading WTA as there are more breaks of serve and also there are good swings when the ladies confirm their breaks by holding their own serve. Best of luck.

@declan-henderson I used to be, spent 14 years doing it. Happy to help on that sport was my fave sport to trade.

Thanks all, I did actually stumble on this afterwards, but great to have comfirmation.

@andrew-findlater Games will probably pick up next week when post Wimbledon tournaments start.

Also the filters your referring to are odds dependent and may not qualify

The only game in the fixtures is the mens final tomorrow which will qualify for Ryan's 33/44 filter tomorrow.

Recap of the week end

Otte - Berrettini

Layed Berrettini after the first set, Otte did not have a chance ended
-0,2 points

Medved - Mannarino

Layed Medved during the 2nd set when game 4-2 for Medved,Mannarino got the break back and went 5-5,
cash out for a +0.5 Profit

Evans - Thompson
Layed Evans begginign of the 2nd set,Thompson lost the serve ,Layed Evans again and Thompson got the Break back,5th game Thompson went 40-0
cash out for +0,4 profit

Zeng - Wang Layed Zeng during the 2nd set when 3-3 @1.19 Wang won the break and close the 2nd set winning

Cash out for +1.2 profit

Murray - Berrettini

Layed Berrettini at the beggining of the 2nd,Murray won the 2nd set
Cash out for a profit +0.8

All the players that I have layed Won the game but I ended up in +2.7p
There is a Room in the Tennis which makes me exited to get into more than before.

My risk as always been between 0.3/0.6p so that shows huge potential.
I had to watch to game and be on top of it,as a game can be easily lost even if a players goes 40-0.Had to be there and ready to intervene.
Downside you can watch the game but you need to watch the score as well as picture are delayed and a second can mean lose. So not really exited to watch a game knowing the score ahead.But once out of the trade I have ended up watching the game fully and enjoy.

New tournament starting from tomorrow.Definitely something to look forward

@ryan it makes sense totally and football is a sport I have followed for over 50 years

@chris-osborne Hey thats really good advice about the WTA, and confirms my own thinking from watching both types of match, so thanks for that.

@johnnys blown the market wide open now!!

@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis section of software:

@kevin-pepper its just uploading buddy be about an hour

Cheers

thanks for this! hopefully get the tennis chat up a bit too 🙂

@martin-futter yes doing mine matey putting up on tennis thread @Louis-Lamprell

@steven-wolfe Still use this when the matches allow buddy, you tried?

0_1515665160772_Screen Shot 2018-01-11 at 10.00.00.png

Looking at this game it looks to me like Lopez is value, firstly on a ranking perspective he is streets ahead, his hold % is quite high and higher than the court average where his opponents is lower than the average.

Key to Figs

P1 Break - price if P1 broke P2
P1SW - price is P1 won set
P2 Break - price is P2 broke P1
P2 SW - price is P2 won set

Average hold - is the % of average hold at this tournament

P1 SG W - P1 service games w in %
P1 RG W - P1 return games w in %
P1 Serving - according to the serving % won are they a good or bad server

P2 SG W - P2 service games w in %
P2 RG W - P2 return games w in %
P2 Serving - according to the serving % win are they a good or bad server