Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    20 Topics
    6k Posts

    Today I will show what I consider a good foundation of estimations or a raw sketch of parameters or criteria considered before the trading opportunity.

    Let's say the strategy is as follows

    I want a favorite with odds of 1.5 and below and they won more matches than underdog.

    I want the ranking table positions to be top to middle top to bottom or middle to bottom and no other ranking positions.

    The favorite won 60% out of 10 previous and the underdog won 70% out of 10 earlier on the same surface and would not qualify.
    However, a 70% win ratio for the favorite and a 30% or less win ratio for the underdog would give the green light for deeper analyses.

    Now we could look into previous games' break points and comeback ratios with the model mentioned above for each game.

    Here we can compare to soccer with no goals at the 70-minute mark to make Time Decay Value in Tennis Match and Hedge for a TIE with no loss.

    I just sum it up like that and wish all the best as I have no interest in teaching when there is no interest in this topic.
    I will just make the winning model and post the results of my winning trades.

    Simple as that, Smile ...

    Further, if you build an algorithm ... consider the following ...
    Tennis Prediction Algorithm

    Skills
    Head to Head
    Rating and countries
    Current form
    Tiredness and retiring
    Tournament

    Upon this probability calculation is made

    The analysis is split into Three parts

    Three Periods

    In the first interval, all matches played in the last 365 Days
    The second interval, 730 Days excluding the 365
    In the third interval, all matches during the career excluding

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

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    @Nathan-Bennett Cruel, just friggin snowed here🤣

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

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    @Patrik-Mellqvist ok so you have completely different filters that is why the selections you expect are not showing.

    'H2 over 0.5' means over 0.5 in the second half (either team in the match could score)
    'Scored' means the specific team would have to have scored, not either team in the match, so much less chance a team scores 60% of the time, than either team scores 20%.

    You need to use the same metric for both filters if you want to get the matches pop up on both. So for example you can choose 'Home' 'Scored in H2' rather than 'H2 over 0.5'.

    Hope that makes sense.

  • Our daily pro picks

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    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    199 Topics
    369 Posts

    @Jonathan-McDaid love it cheers!

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    45 Topics
    855 Posts

    @Martin Thanks Martin for posting this for us out there who don’t know spreadsheets too well 👍

  • 100 Topics
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    Just watched a film called 'Aftersun'.

    Real slow burner as father takes his 11yr old daughter on holiday. Alot is video camera footage as the little girl now 20yrs older looks back. Some is her memories.

    It's incredibly moving and very sad but I won't say too much more.

  • 2 Votes
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    @Everyone Give this a read 😉

  • Sorare - Fantasy Football

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    Just avoid! I didnt get burnt by FI so i have no bias. This is worse as some of the prices to get involved is staggering. They recently released a cheaper card type. It was something i looked into as im a ethereum based investor so thought it might be nice to use some of it for that. Your just miles better off keeping all your investment in actual ethereum in blockfi for some extra interest. These people are cleverly bypassing regulation because essentially you own that NFT and therefor its not classed as gambling because your buying something to later sell or collect. Its just something id avoid unless you have fun with it, there is no skill to it as everyone is using the same metrics so everyone is trying to buy the same cards.

  • 1 Votes
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    @marco-frankfort good news that!

  • Daily (live) discussion?

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    Yep pretty much that buddy, the discussion is on the football thread about the daily trades.

  • Twiddling my thumbs!

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    Twiddle my thumbs haha

  • This topic is deleted!

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  • Best VPS for BFBM?

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    I haven't used BFBM so not sure how much grunt it needs per market but if it helps, the spec of my VPS with eukhost is 6 cores and 8GB RAM!

    However, my app is nowhere near maxing that out and it tracks about 2500 markets at once on average and does a ton of other stuff as well, like a load of web scraping etc.

    I would have thought you'd be OK with the starter package. Can you run it in training mode for a bit and keep an eye on the resource usage on the server?

  • This topic is deleted!

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  • Cycling TDF 2021

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    He just looks too far ahead of everyone else at the minute even Carapaz said that

    Although it just takes one crash, positive COVID test or caught in cross winds at the wrong time for it all to change. I wouldn’t do it but at small stakes could be an option

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  • Whats the 80/20 of BTC?

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    some excellent suggestions - I am going to re do the 5 day build your own filter challenge as your welcome to BTC

    This will show people how to use the stats and an action plan alongside it - I've always wanted people to be able to build their own instead of just following me.

  • Basketball

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    690 Views

    @sean-fitzgerald crickets my main thing and like to be involved when markets are moving .., so hearing your thoughts of trades late ish in games just makes sense and the 0.5 profit aswell as that can can be reached quite quickly as 5-0 runs can happen space of 40s as you know even laying both sides 1.2 ish could work .. possibly all team dependant . the 7-10th seed play in will make games competitive to the final reg season game

    and no pro myself work giving it a nudge and to a smaller degree automation

  • GREY HOUNDS

    1 Votes
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    @james-everard said in GREY HOUNDS:

    @john-folan said in GREY HOUNDS:

    @james-everard said in GREY HOUNDS:

    @john-folan How you getting on? Not sure if you know but this is live greyhound racing on in the evenings on sky channel 437 (Sporty Stuff tv) ?

    It’s more difficult than I thought. Everytime I think I’m getting somewhere it goes wonky. Nice one I usually use the live feed to watch it. I’ll try that thanks

    No worries i found taking advantage of the pundits predictions can sometimes be a good way of making money especially the when one of them points out a dog that is high odds they can plummet in 20 seconds

    Quite like that. Amazing people listen to pundits and things like Timeform. Still it can be used to our advantage

  • The mental part in trading

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    @lee-woodman said in The mental part in trading:

    You dont have to be a robot but you have to work on the mental side, theres no doubt about that. People think you need to be disciplined and have willpower all of the time but thats not true, you need to use selected discipline and willpower to create good habits. If you find you jump on other peoples trades during trading then stay off the forum whilst trading. If you feel like you arent sticking to your plan then maybe the plan needs work. If you are overstaking then get your staking right in your mind and maybe withdraw money from BF, leaving in enough for just a few points. Think about what triggers you and what causes it, then work out how to create a better habit to prevent it happening

    Habit and routine, crucial to any self development.

  • Sharing Trading Filters for Football Stats

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    @catalin-radu said in Sharing Trading Filters for Football Stats:

    hi guys, is there an option for the first team to score in the software? for example brugge - gent, I want to see how many times every team scored first in the last 10 games. thanks

    Yep, just click 'Percentage' or 'Total' then 'scored first'

  • What am I missing?

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    @ryan-carruthers ah gotcha 👍

  • Data Manipulation

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    @darri

    Hi Darri! Thanks for the reply!

    What I will do is I will post more detailed info about the two filters to my trading thread on here (may not be today, probs at weekend) so you’ve got more info to work with! I appreciate any and all input! 😁

  • Leaving btc

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    Best of luck @Dan-Erridge

    Stay in touch!

  • In play stats

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    @adam-broadway for me the first thing is to make sure it is a game on my shortlist. I have written an article that details good stats to get in on https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

  • 2 Step Verification

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    @martin-futter said in 2 Step Verification:

    @richard-latimer it’s not that, why keep so much money in there? If you have all of your bankroll tempting you to go all in it’s riskier imo.

    I would never do that but some interesting points. I'll decide where to go from here.