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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    17 Topics
    6k Posts

    I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

    Player Matches Won >= 0
    Category WTA-Singles
    Scope Last 10 Matches
    βœ… Restrict To Same Surface Type

    IMG_1029.png

    IMG_1031.png

    IMG_1030.png

    IMG_1032.png

    In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

    You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
    For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    Cricket video:

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    59 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Kurtis-Steven-Graham Hard to say.

    It's the actual rules that tell you what is happening.

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    362 Posts

    A few years ago I wrote a Betfair Trading bankroll managment guide for traders of all types. It is still a great article and worth reading for all traders you can [FIND IT HERE](https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need).

    However, as lots of our Football Trading and Horse Racing traders are now using set and forget strategies, I realise we also need a guide for that type of betting bankroll.

    Set and forget strategies are essentially just betting on an outcome and letting the bet run.Β 

    This style of Betfair trading has become more popular in recent years, the idea of sitting at a PC all day trading is not only too time consuming but also not neccessary to make money on Betfair.Β 

    So, hey, why not save time and effort and use straight bets to make money? I mean if it makes money who cares what type of betting it is?

    Anyway, if you are at all interesting in set and forget betting on Betfair then you need to read this guide!

    Β 

    What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader?

    We get asked this question all the time! However, the answer is different for set and forget betting...

    The key thing you have to be aware of when placing bets with no intention of trading out is that you will lose 100% of the stake you use.Β 

    This is obvious but the reason I mention this is that you will have more variance than the typical trading strategy, in some cases a lot more.Β 

    It's simple maths really, if you lose 100% of your stake when you lose a bet your losing runs will be more impactful.Β 

    So the way to combat this problem is proper bankroll management!Β 

    Every time we bet we are risking that stake, so let's think about each bet as a BIG BET.

    Our bankroll needs to have a certain amount of BIG BETS to cover a losing run.

    Not only that we don't want one bad day to cripple our bankroll, so we need enough to be extra safe.

    How many BIG BETS would you want?

    Well in trading you can get away with 50 (2% of your bankroll 2x50=100%) because you will not lose the full stake, you will be cashing out for a profit or a loss at some point.

    However, when straight betting 50 is not enough. Imagine you have a losing streak of 10 bets, this can easily happen when betting at odds against even when betting at evens.

    Suddenly you have lost 20% of your bankroll and that could be in one day.Β 

    That's not a sensible staking plan.

    So how many BIG BETS do we need.

    Well it depends on the odds you are backing at. Let me explain.

    If you are generally betting at odds on maybe 1.5 or below you could probably get away with 100 big bets.

    1% of your bankroll per bet should be fine because you will win at least 66% of the time on average.Β 

    If you are betting at evens to 3.0 you could probably get away with 200 big bets. (0.5% of your bankroll)

    This is actually the kind of bankroll professional poker players use, they will have 200-250 buy ins behind them (so when you see a player lose their buy in on TV, it's not the big deal the broadcasters will try and tell you!).

    If you are betting at odds above 3.0 it can get tricky, you will want more big bets the higher the odds go! Maybe 500+!

    Β 

    So Let's Talk Money!Β 

    All this talk of percentages is great and definitely where you should start thinking from, rather than financial amounts but I know most of you will be asking, how much money do I need to bet on Betfair?

    Firstly, if you are new to trading you should start low, go as low as possible Β£1 bets so you need enough money to have as many Β£1 big bets as you need. Β£100 for 100 big bets, Β£250 for 250 big bets and so on.Β 

    Then you can raise stakes as you earn money according to your percentages, so you use the same percentage per bet but increase the stake naturally as your bankroll grows.Β 

    So if I doubled my bankroll from Β£100 to Β£200, I would now use Β£2 stakes and still have 100 big bets.

    If you want to know what bankroll I recommend for pro traders it is still the same as the previous article.

    If you are placing multiple bets per day on a variety of profitable strategies Β£5,000-Β£10,000 will be a great starting point, you can easily go semi-pro at that level, however, because of the low stake percentages you are probably going to want to get that up to Β£20,000+ eventually.

    Although, as I always state there is no rush!Β 

    Remember set and forget is so easy, you just place your bets and get on with your day, so there is less pressure to make big money because you are not wasting any time where you could be doing other things.

    Β 

    What if it goes wrong?

    My simple rule that I have been told by so many traders over the years was godsend is this:

    If I lose half my bankroll I halve my stakes. (Obviously if you are using Β£1 minimum this can't be done but it's not a major worry at that level, you just may need to look at a different portfolio of strategies).

    By halving our stakes we give ourselves another chance to have success and it's nearly impossible to 'bust out' and lose our whole bankroll.Β 

    If I am using a Β£5,000 bankroll and Β£50 stakes then if it gets to Β£2,500 I will reduce stakes to Β£25 and so on.Β 

    This gives you maximum bankroll protecting and you will never be the victim of a horror 'I LOST MY BANKROLL IN ONE DAY' story!

    Β 

    One final bit of advice...

    Please test your strategies before putting money on them, don't just backtest but forward test them as you go.

    Give it 6-12 months and really get a feel for what works and what doesn't before putting serious money down!Β 

    The biggest mistake Betfair traders make is to bet heavily on a strategy they have not fully tested, which usually leads to disaster.

    If you have any more questions about this please do not hesitate to ask me on the forum or contact my via email [email protected]

    Be safe with your bankroll, it will become your best friend in hard times!

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  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    43 Topics
    850 Posts

    @alexander-hughes It's been a long time since I used it to be honest. I guess the BD version hasn't had the same development as the BF one, but surely a basic bot should be transferable

  • 90 Topics
    5k Posts

    @Ryan said in Netflix/Amazon/Gaming and Book Recommendations:

    @Tony-Hastie I have that to maybe watch not sold on it though, wife wants to do that other one as well not sure what it's called got the word reindeer in it.

    I will not be watching that. My wife will though. Each to their own. Three body problem seems ok though.

    Try these
    Fallout(amazing)
    Shogun(just wow)
    Mayor of Kingstown(did two series in five days)

  • Daily (live) discussion?

    0 Votes
    3 Posts
    521 Views

    Yep pretty much that buddy, the discussion is on the football thread about the daily trades.

  • Twiddling my thumbs!

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    5 Posts
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    Twiddle my thumbs haha

  • This topic is deleted!

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  • Best VPS for BFBM?

    2 Votes
    5 Posts
    651 Views

    I haven't used BFBM so not sure how much grunt it needs per market but if it helps, the spec of my VPS with eukhost is 6 cores and 8GB RAM!

    However, my app is nowhere near maxing that out and it tracks about 2500 markets at once on average and does a ton of other stuff as well, like a load of web scraping etc.

    I would have thought you'd be OK with the starter package. Can you run it in training mode for a bit and keep an eye on the resource usage on the server?

  • This topic is deleted!

    2 Votes
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  • Cycling TDF 2021

    2 Votes
    2 Posts
    330 Views

    He just looks too far ahead of everyone else at the minute even Carapaz said that

    Although it just takes one crash, positive COVID test or caught in cross winds at the wrong time for it all to change. I wouldn’t do it but at small stakes could be an option

  • 0 Votes
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  • Whats the 80/20 of BTC?

    0 Votes
    33 Posts
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    some excellent suggestions - I am going to re do the 5 day build your own filter challenge as your welcome to BTC

    This will show people how to use the stats and an action plan alongside it - I've always wanted people to be able to build their own instead of just following me.

  • Basketball

    1 Votes
    11 Posts
    690 Views

    @sean-fitzgerald crickets my main thing and like to be involved when markets are moving .., so hearing your thoughts of trades late ish in games just makes sense and the 0.5 profit aswell as that can can be reached quite quickly as 5-0 runs can happen space of 40s as you know even laying both sides 1.2 ish could work .. possibly all team dependant . the 7-10th seed play in will make games competitive to the final reg season game

    and no pro myself work giving it a nudge and to a smaller degree automation

  • GREY HOUNDS

    1 Votes
    17 Posts
    964 Views

    @james-everard said in GREY HOUNDS:

    @john-folan said in GREY HOUNDS:

    @james-everard said in GREY HOUNDS:

    @john-folan How you getting on? Not sure if you know but this is live greyhound racing on in the evenings on sky channel 437 (Sporty Stuff tv) ?

    It’s more difficult than I thought. Everytime I think I’m getting somewhere it goes wonky. Nice one I usually use the live feed to watch it. I’ll try that thanks

    No worries i found taking advantage of the pundits predictions can sometimes be a good way of making money especially the when one of them points out a dog that is high odds they can plummet in 20 seconds

    Quite like that. Amazing people listen to pundits and things like Timeform. Still it can be used to our advantage

  • The mental part in trading

    0 Votes
    6 Posts
    419 Views

    @lee-woodman said in The mental part in trading:

    You dont have to be a robot but you have to work on the mental side, theres no doubt about that. People think you need to be disciplined and have willpower all of the time but thats not true, you need to use selected discipline and willpower to create good habits. If you find you jump on other peoples trades during trading then stay off the forum whilst trading. If you feel like you arent sticking to your plan then maybe the plan needs work. If you are overstaking then get your staking right in your mind and maybe withdraw money from BF, leaving in enough for just a few points. Think about what triggers you and what causes it, then work out how to create a better habit to prevent it happening

    Habit and routine, crucial to any self development.

  • Sharing Trading Filters for Football Stats

    2 Votes
    7 Posts
    564 Views

    @catalin-radu said in Sharing Trading Filters for Football Stats:

    hi guys, is there an option for the first team to score in the software? for example brugge - gent, I want to see how many times every team scored first in the last 10 games. thanks

    Yep, just click 'Percentage' or 'Total' then 'scored first'

  • What am I missing?

    1 Votes
    9 Posts
    567 Views

    @ryan-carruthers ah gotcha πŸ‘

  • Data Manipulation

    1 Votes
    5 Posts
    402 Views

    @darri

    Hi Darri! Thanks for the reply!

    What I will do is I will post more detailed info about the two filters to my trading thread on here (may not be today, probs at weekend) so you’ve got more info to work with! I appreciate any and all input! 😁

  • Leaving btc

    5 Votes
    7 Posts
    578 Views

    Best of luck @Dan-Erridge

    Stay in touch!

  • In play stats

    0 Votes
    3 Posts
    390 Views

    @adam-broadway for me the first thing is to make sure it is a game on my shortlist. I have written an article that details good stats to get in on https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

  • 2 Step Verification

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    916 Views

    @martin-futter said in 2 Step Verification:

    @richard-latimer it’s not that, why keep so much money in there? If you have all of your bankroll tempting you to go all in it’s riskier imo.

    I would never do that but some interesting points. I'll decide where to go from here.

  • newbie trading advice

    2 Votes
    7 Posts
    464 Views

    @ben-dobie cheers mate its going well so far

  • Record odds history

    1 Votes
    4 Posts
    348 Views

    I think you'll need to track them yourself in play, you can get some data from Betfair (not sure if they've changed this) but when I used it before it wasn't the best to use and didn't give the numbers I wanted & didn't correlate to what was happening.

    I believe Bet Angel might have a product that has done something with this in play.

  • THE DREADED CALL

    1 Votes
    25 Posts
    2k Views

    @ryan-carruthers said in THE DREADED CALL:

    @james-everard Defo! Whats your beer of choice?

    Wife beater ( Stella) two cans I will fight anyone lol