Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    16 Topics
    6k Posts

    @Paul-McCay I'll check it out, I have always loved watching tennis. Took a bit of a break from it since the girls and automating my trading would love the get back into watching it.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

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    Will ENG lock it down ?
    Nope ha

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

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    1k Posts

    Hey folks.
    Ive put together a very basic FHG bot which drip lays the HT draw. After a lot of faffing about with other more complex attempts this one has worked well in testing...solving the problem I was having of the 2nd and 3rd lays going in even if a goal had been scored and it had greened out earlier. Ive set it up so the lays wont go in if the HTD odds are over 3. The problem I see now(which I havent had to deal with in testing) is if an equaliser comes quickly and the draw odds dip below 3 again. Is there any way to solve this? My knowledge of signals and stored values is VERY limited....and I cant find a lot about it through the Bet Angel forum or training videos so if it goes down this path Id appreciate an extensive explanation! Cheers

    Lay the HT draw.baf

  • Our daily pro picks

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    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    362 Posts

    A few years ago I wrote a Betfair Trading bankroll managment guide for traders of all types. It is still a great article and worth reading for all traders you can [FIND IT HERE](https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need).

    However, as lots of our Football Trading and Horse Racing traders are now using set and forget strategies, I realise we also need a guide for that type of betting bankroll.

    Set and forget strategies are essentially just betting on an outcome and letting the bet run. 

    This style of Betfair trading has become more popular in recent years, the idea of sitting at a PC all day trading is not only too time consuming but also not neccessary to make money on Betfair. 

    So, hey, why not save time and effort and use straight bets to make money? I mean if it makes money who cares what type of betting it is?

    Anyway, if you are at all interesting in set and forget betting on Betfair then you need to read this guide!

     

    What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader?

    We get asked this question all the time! However, the answer is different for set and forget betting...

    The key thing you have to be aware of when placing bets with no intention of trading out is that you will lose 100% of the stake you use. 

    This is obvious but the reason I mention this is that you will have more variance than the typical trading strategy, in some cases a lot more. 

    It's simple maths really, if you lose 100% of your stake when you lose a bet your losing runs will be more impactful. 

    So the way to combat this problem is proper bankroll management! 

    Every time we bet we are risking that stake, so let's think about each bet as a BIG BET.

    Our bankroll needs to have a certain amount of BIG BETS to cover a losing run.

    Not only that we don't want one bad day to cripple our bankroll, so we need enough to be extra safe.

    How many BIG BETS would you want?

    Well in trading you can get away with 50 (2% of your bankroll 2x50=100%) because you will not lose the full stake, you will be cashing out for a profit or a loss at some point.

    However, when straight betting 50 is not enough. Imagine you have a losing streak of 10 bets, this can easily happen when betting at odds against even when betting at evens.

    Suddenly you have lost 20% of your bankroll and that could be in one day. 

    That's not a sensible staking plan.

    So how many BIG BETS do we need.

    Well it depends on the odds you are backing at. Let me explain.

    If you are generally betting at odds on maybe 1.5 or below you could probably get away with 100 big bets.

    1% of your bankroll per bet should be fine because you will win at least 66% of the time on average. 

    If you are betting at evens to 3.0 you could probably get away with 200 big bets. (0.5% of your bankroll)

    This is actually the kind of bankroll professional poker players use, they will have 200-250 buy ins behind them (so when you see a player lose their buy in on TV, it's not the big deal the broadcasters will try and tell you!).

    If you are betting at odds above 3.0 it can get tricky, you will want more big bets the higher the odds go! Maybe 500+!

     

    So Let's Talk Money! 

    All this talk of percentages is great and definitely where you should start thinking from, rather than financial amounts but I know most of you will be asking, how much money do I need to bet on Betfair?

    Firstly, if you are new to trading you should start low, go as low as possible £1 bets so you need enough money to have as many £1 big bets as you need. £100 for 100 big bets, £250 for 250 big bets and so on. 

    Then you can raise stakes as you earn money according to your percentages, so you use the same percentage per bet but increase the stake naturally as your bankroll grows. 

    So if I doubled my bankroll from £100 to £200, I would now use £2 stakes and still have 100 big bets.

    If you want to know what bankroll I recommend for pro traders it is still the same as the previous article.

    If you are placing multiple bets per day on a variety of profitable strategies £5,000-£10,000 will be a great starting point, you can easily go semi-pro at that level, however, because of the low stake percentages you are probably going to want to get that up to £20,000+ eventually.

    Although, as I always state there is no rush! 

    Remember set and forget is so easy, you just place your bets and get on with your day, so there is less pressure to make big money because you are not wasting any time where you could be doing other things.

     

    What if it goes wrong?

    My simple rule that I have been told by so many traders over the years was godsend is this:

    If I lose half my bankroll I halve my stakes. (Obviously if you are using £1 minimum this can't be done but it's not a major worry at that level, you just may need to look at a different portfolio of strategies).

    By halving our stakes we give ourselves another chance to have success and it's nearly impossible to 'bust out' and lose our whole bankroll. 

    If I am using a £5,000 bankroll and £50 stakes then if it gets to £2,500 I will reduce stakes to £25 and so on. 

    This gives you maximum bankroll protecting and you will never be the victim of a horror 'I LOST MY BANKROLL IN ONE DAY' story!

     

    One final bit of advice...

    Please test your strategies before putting money on them, don't just backtest but forward test them as you go.

    Give it 6-12 months and really get a feel for what works and what doesn't before putting serious money down! 

    The biggest mistake Betfair traders make is to bet heavily on a strategy they have not fully tested, which usually leads to disaster.

    If you have any more questions about this please do not hesitate to ask me on the forum or contact my via email [email protected]

    Be safe with your bankroll, it will become your best friend in hard times!

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    43 Topics
    2k Posts

    @Andrew-Gray said in BFbotmanager Automation Discussion:

    @John-Folan Interesting John

    Is that only for in play markets I assume?

    Or do they use the betfair Near and Far BSP predictions so you can use it pre-race as well?

    I’ll have a nose. I would say not.

  • 88 Topics
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    @John-Folan just about to get back onto Apple TV, need to do the new series of Slow Horses then will do Masters!

  • Fairbot Automation Discussion

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    @Steven-Bassett I would have suggested his videos so may be worthing contacting their support, the guy who runs it is very helpful!

  • NFL Strategies

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    @Martin said in NFL Strategies:

    @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I play a lot in the outrights markets with NFL as game to game can be very unpredictable set and forget.

    I like this idea though! Let me know how it gets on!

    It needs a bit of research but the basic idea seems reasonable. I'll come back to you after 25 results for an early update.

  • Darts Trading

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    @Martin I love it but I don't trade it at all sadly, I know that there used to be a cricket trader here who played around with it.

    Nothing for me though, it's also a sport that I just want to enjoy instead of looking for angles 😄

    Me and the wife love watching the darts at xmas lol

  • Selection suggestions.

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    @Mark-Maguire thanks for your informed response, the thing that's stuck in my head since I started all this was the advice on sticking to one strategy and learn the rules of that one before moving onto another, another thing I've learnt is recording absolutely everything, goals, times, ht/ft scores etc, like what you've mentioned in your reply, having all the info to read and looking over it to find patterns then trying to make my own strategy out of my findings, I have numerous spreadsheets of info I've collected from the preset filters, I need to keep on doing this for a bit longer to gather as much as I can then hopefully use it to my advantage .

  • This topic is deleted!

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  • Lay The Beaten Favourite - Greyhounds

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    44 Posts
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    @Greenie apologies, completely forgot. I’m away until Friday, send us another message then and I will sort it out.

  • Automation, how to keep it running 24/7

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    9 Posts
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    @John-Folan thanks mate top man!

  • Boxing

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    5 Posts
    94 Views

    So the 1st fight I will potentially trade is the spence v crawford fight although it will be on at around 5am, so will see how it goes.
    I see spence as the stronger, bigger guy who will try to impose himself on crawford and may do so in the early rounds. However crawford I think is superior technically and has a slight edge with speed. Both have decent power and are capable of hurting one another.
    The current odds are spence 2.5 and crawford 1.8, I would say crawford should be closer to 1.7 in my opinion.
    Anyway I see this as close fight around 60/40 in favour of crawford.
    My plan currently is to potentially lay crawford before the start of the fight if the price drops below 1.7 as he is prone to starting slowly, while he figures his opponent out.
    If I don't see an opportunity either pre fight or in the 1st round or 2, I will most likely wait to see if his price goes over 2.5 then provided there are no big warning signs I will back him and look to get out around 1.4/5.

  • SOFTWARE

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    @Adam Thanks for sharing your story, I do fear that I will be just going through the motions before giving it all up to do this full time. Tbh, I think it's just a matter of time. There is so much more to explore 🙂 I will keep you posted.

  • Best Automation Service?

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  • pre season trading

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    7 Posts
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    @Adam said in pre season trading:

    @james-everard said in pre season trading:

    Interesting for a potential accumulator if you can find a site that has Nat North , find hardly any betting sites go below the conference national which is a shame as i like my non league football. Had a look and can't find any sites

    Agreed! Some of the best opportunities for football in the non-league games. Paddy and Coral used to do it and there used to be some Irish bookies that offered them but I can't find them now.

    Odds are usually decent as well, faves pretty much always over 1.5 even though they generally win over 70% of the time.

    i think i did an accumulator last season with a bookies that went down to Conference South/North level but can''t find anyone this season .

    Will look at potential trading nearer to the season start (taking the advice as will know better once most of the transfers have occurred )

  • Super Late Goals Strategy

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    Hi Martin - would it be possible to get a copy of your sheet for the Super Late Goals filter? I can't seem to find it on the shared profitable members sheet. Thanks

  • please keep this going

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    @patrick-McConville thanks for that! You are right about the members, such a great group of people here!

  • Beliefs

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    I used to believe winning the battle each day was the key to being profitable with trading. Turns out you winning the long term war is far more important.

  • ADHD & Trading

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    @Akiva-Anderson You're doing god's work my friend, thank you.

  • Football Scalping

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    @james-heathcote-0 Hi James. I came across your post about your automated pre-match scalping (2 years ago). Are you still implementing this? I would love to implement myself if you wouldn't mind sharing? does it take into account the weight of money or anything like that?

  • BTC Daily Email Q and A Thread

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    @martin Condolences for the troubled times

  • BTC Official Automation Thread

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    Ill have a look when I have a few days off and can sit and watch and make sure its doing what I want in real time just in case I set thee automation wrong

  • Overfiltering

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    @michael-doering

    PG= Per Tor
    PM= Per Spiel

    Durchschnittliche Scoring Time kann man auch in BTC Statistiken finden:
    0_1681333269432_61cb067d-6924-4dbc-8a69-8c4dffd02d03-image.png

  • 0 Votes
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    @conor-medlyn Hey buddy,

    I will speak with Martin about this one as it's my strategy but I didn't track it on those sheets, Martin did.

    I have been running it since the start all those years ago 16/17 now, which is scary. It's always been profitable year on year for me hence why I still use it.

    It is a riskier long term strategy as the losses hurt more because of laying.