Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    17 Topics
    6k Posts

    I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

    Player Matches Won >= 0
    Category WTA-Singles
    Scope Last 10 Matches
    ✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type

    IMG_1029.png

    IMG_1031.png

    IMG_1030.png

    IMG_1032.png

    In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

    You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
    For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    @Nathan-Bennett draw came in really fast didn't it. Expected a bit more from Irelands bowlers given they chose to bowl

    I'm going to back the draw just before lunch (hopefully get a wicket by then). Rain forecast early afternoon, hopefully shorten the draw a bit.

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    64 Topics
    1k Posts

    I reckon there are different ways to develop and work the playing model.
    When you are in the stock market you have certain tools to test your idea or approach.
    Stock traders use simulation software to test their trading model on fictive but realistic price movements that are identical to real-world data.
    That way they don’t waste learning money or take unnecessary risks.
    You can also find trading angles that give a long-term positive return on investment.

    Is the same as the exchange

    And today I made a decision.
    I will use some out-of-the-box proven-to-work solutions that are being offered.
    And develop my own on various statistical assumptions.

    I like the idea of Richard’s method. I will turnaround and develop value or what I estimate and decide to have true value after some raw testing with around 500 placed trades into simulation software.
    And the high light is a raw test and now is the time to fine-tune and tailor the trading approach and do another 500 placed trades into the simulation software.

    Want to make a point here, that creating a painting requires good basic and introduction preparation to get and good and solid final result.
    So the preparation process is crucial before starting the time-consuming simulation process.

    First I play around with some parameters and have to solve some trading angles to get the most out of the simulation process.
    I use TIME VALUE and not COMBACK VALUE but in the end both are the same thing and equally effective based on my raw test simulation that gave me a true edge.
    So the part I will explore now before continuing this topic is the relay part and where to best get value if the score goes 1-2 after the U-dog has been leading by +2 goals.
    I see it as a second change to an very low price and that screams risk mitigation and I love that word.

    Will update soon …

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    199 Topics
    365 Posts

    @Patrik-Mellqvist Great mindset mate, hope it works out for you!

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    44 Topics
    851 Posts

    Example of a spreadsheet to use to tracks bets/trades: Example Spreadsheet.xlsx

  • 98 Topics
    5k Posts

    @Akiva-Anderson I do so of my own volition. Knowledge is power and understanding of the world around you paramount. Bigotry of any persuasion is heinous.

    The interview between Badiel and Margoyles was particuarly interesting as they both had very different viewpoints on some things and of course the same on others.

    You don't have to agree on everything but you must be able to debate everything calmly.

  • Approaches to trading...

    1 Votes
    27 Posts
    273 Views

    @Richard-Latimer This is music to my ears!!!

  • 0 Votes
    9 Posts
    193 Views

    @Everyone for anyone who looked at our site and may have been considering one of our prints.

    We now have an etsy shop and are running a 20% discount for the next day on selected items.

    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/E1GwZZgUsxEGKYDH/

    Go check us out

  • Lay The Beaten Favourite - Greyhounds

  • NFL Strategies

    1 Votes
    2k Posts
    101k Views

    @Martin said in NFL Strategies:

    @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I play a lot in the outrights markets with NFL as game to game can be very unpredictable set and forget.

    I like this idea though! Let me know how it gets on!

    It needs a bit of research but the basic idea seems reasonable. I'll come back to you after 25 results for an early update.

  • Darts Trading

    1 Votes
    3 Posts
    63 Views

    @Martin I love it but I don't trade it at all sadly, I know that there used to be a cricket trader here who played around with it.

    Nothing for me though, it's also a sport that I just want to enjoy instead of looking for angles 😄

    Me and the wife love watching the darts at xmas lol

  • Selection suggestions.

    0 Votes
    8 Posts
    162 Views

    @Mark-Maguire thanks for your informed response, the thing that's stuck in my head since I started all this was the advice on sticking to one strategy and learn the rules of that one before moving onto another, another thing I've learnt is recording absolutely everything, goals, times, ht/ft scores etc, like what you've mentioned in your reply, having all the info to read and looking over it to find patterns then trying to make my own strategy out of my findings, I have numerous spreadsheets of info I've collected from the preset filters, I need to keep on doing this for a bit longer to gather as much as I can then hopefully use it to my advantage .

  • SOFTWARE

    0 Votes
    18 Posts
    255 Views

    @Adam Thanks for sharing your story, I do fear that I will be just going through the motions before giving it all up to do this full time. Tbh, I think it's just a matter of time. There is so much more to explore 🙂 I will keep you posted.

  • pre season trading

    1 Votes
    7 Posts
    126 Views

    @Adam said in pre season trading:

    @james-everard said in pre season trading:

    Interesting for a potential accumulator if you can find a site that has Nat North , find hardly any betting sites go below the conference national which is a shame as i like my non league football. Had a look and can't find any sites

    Agreed! Some of the best opportunities for football in the non-league games. Paddy and Coral used to do it and there used to be some Irish bookies that offered them but I can't find them now.

    Odds are usually decent as well, faves pretty much always over 1.5 even though they generally win over 70% of the time.

    i think i did an accumulator last season with a bookies that went down to Conference South/North level but can''t find anyone this season .

    Will look at potential trading nearer to the season start (taking the advice as will know better once most of the transfers have occurred )

  • Super Late Goals Strategy

    1 Votes
    27 Posts
    3k Views

    Hi Martin - would it be possible to get a copy of your sheet for the Super Late Goals filter? I can't seem to find it on the shared profitable members sheet. Thanks

  • Beliefs

    0 Votes
    4 Posts
    73 Views

    I used to believe winning the battle each day was the key to being profitable with trading. Turns out you winning the long term war is far more important.

  • ADHD & Trading

    3 Votes
    9 Posts
    194 Views

    @Akiva-Anderson You're doing god's work my friend, thank you.

  • Football Scalping

    2 Votes
    24 Posts
    4k Views

    @james-heathcote-0 Hi James. I came across your post about your automated pre-match scalping (2 years ago). Are you still implementing this? I would love to implement myself if you wouldn't mind sharing? does it take into account the weight of money or anything like that?

  • BTC Daily Email Q and A Thread

    0 Votes
    258 Posts
    19k Views

    @martin Condolences for the troubled times

  • Overfiltering

    1 Votes
    15 Posts
    330 Views

    @michael-doering

    PG= Per Tor
    PM= Per Spiel

    Durchschnittliche Scoring Time kann man auch in BTC Statistiken finden:
    0_1681333269432_61cb067d-6924-4dbc-8a69-8c4dffd02d03-image.png

  • 0 Votes
    329 Posts
    44k Views

    @conor-medlyn Hey buddy,

    I will speak with Martin about this one as it's my strategy but I didn't track it on those sheets, Martin did.

    I have been running it since the start all those years ago 16/17 now, which is scary. It's always been profitable year on year for me hence why I still use it.

    It is a riskier long term strategy as the losses hurt more because of laying.

  • Six nations

    2 Votes
    16 Posts
    1k Views

    Might lay France to win the world cup after that performance today. Odds of about 4 atm.

  • Pinnacle Sportsbook

    1 Votes
    1 Posts
    143 Views
    No one has replied
  • my trading strategy.

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    1k Views

    @lee-woodman ok thanks alot mate appreciate it

  • Bitcoin Betting Exchange

    1 Votes
    3 Posts
    257 Views

    Yep I sold all my crypto lol scares me as well well to volatile for my liking lol

  • Betfair T&C changes.

    0 Votes
    18 Posts
    1k Views

    @richard-lillis-0 said in Betfair T&C changes.:

    @john-folan I am raising again with all this information - will keep you updated.

    I get the feeling there is something else they are annoyed with that they have not told you, I hope you manage to ge tit overturned