Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    20 Topics
    6k Posts

    Today I will show what I consider a good foundation of estimations or a raw sketch of parameters or criteria considered before the trading opportunity.

    Let's say the strategy is as follows

    I want a favorite with odds of 1.5 and below and they won more matches than underdog.

    I want the ranking table positions to be top to middle top to bottom or middle to bottom and no other ranking positions.

    The favorite won 60% out of 10 previous and the underdog won 70% out of 10 earlier on the same surface and would not qualify.
    However, a 70% win ratio for the favorite and a 30% or less win ratio for the underdog would give the green light for deeper analyses.

    Now we could look into previous games' break points and comeback ratios with the model mentioned above for each game.

    Here we can compare to soccer with no goals at the 70-minute mark to make Time Decay Value in Tennis Match and Hedge for a TIE with no loss.

    I just sum it up like that and wish all the best as I have no interest in teaching when there is no interest in this topic.
    I will just make the winning model and post the results of my winning trades.

    Simple as that, Smile ...

    Further, if you build an algorithm ... consider the following ...
    Tennis Prediction Algorithm

    Skills
    Head to Head
    Rating and countries
    Current form
    Tiredness and retiring
    Tournament

    Upon this probability calculation is made

    The analysis is split into Three parts

    Three Periods

    In the first interval, all matches played in the last 365 Days
    The second interval, 730 Days excluding the 365
    In the third interval, all matches during the career excluding

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    Frustrating day in SA w vs ENG w. Market has been all over the place. One wicket was causing huge spikes then corrected a couple of overs later. Was trying to juggle it and work.

    Missed the draw lay as I thought they were off for rain, 30 mins later 7 wickets had fallen.

    Think the only play left is ENG lay, wondering how low it will get, maybe 1.15 while they bat. Reckon SA can hang around long enough in 4th innings to push the price up. Managed 150 overs defending in India. Will assess how the pitch is playing tomorrow though.

    .....

    Was 20 overs long enough!!!! Talk about folding easily.

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    71 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Patrik-Mellqvist ok so you have completely different filters that is why the selections you expect are not showing.

    'H2 over 0.5' means over 0.5 in the second half (either team in the match could score)
    'Scored' means the specific team would have to have scored, not either team in the match, so much less chance a team scores 60% of the time, than either team scores 20%.

    You need to use the same metric for both filters if you want to get the matches pop up on both. So for example you can choose 'Home' 'Scored in H2' rather than 'H2 over 0.5'.

    Hope that makes sense.

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    199 Topics
    369 Posts

    @Jonathan-McDaid love it cheers!

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    45 Topics
    855 Posts

    @Martin Thanks Martin for posting this for us out there who don’t know spreadsheets too well 👍

  • 100 Topics
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    @Richard-Latimer Gotcha lol that makes sense now!

  • Betfair premium charge relaxed!

    4 Votes
    7 Posts
    85 Views

    @nick Do you mean the standard 2% commission? Yes they're definitely still charging that, this is specifically about the premium charge on top of that.

  • Automated Trading

    2 Votes
    10 Posts
    128 Views

    @Adam Its just a question of holding your nerve during the "oh sh*t!" moments. I have almost conditioned myself not to keep watching it and just check before I go to bed. Certainly helped by having a good start...."it's not my money"

  • 0 Votes
    15 Posts
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    @Tony-Hastie haha

    I was recently looking into an NHL Ice Hockey game is Finland and the resale for £60 tickets was something like £1500. Thought I'm just better off spending a bit more and actually going to the US!

  • Approaches to trading...

    1 Votes
    27 Posts
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    @Richard-Latimer This is music to my ears!!!

  • 0 Votes
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    193 Views

    @Everyone for anyone who looked at our site and may have been considering one of our prints.

    We now have an etsy shop and are running a 20% discount for the next day on selected items.

    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/E1GwZZgUsxEGKYDH/

    Go check us out

  • Lay The Beaten Favourite - Greyhounds

  • NFL Strategies

    1 Votes
    2k Posts
    101k Views

    @Martin said in NFL Strategies:

    @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I play a lot in the outrights markets with NFL as game to game can be very unpredictable set and forget.

    I like this idea though! Let me know how it gets on!

    It needs a bit of research but the basic idea seems reasonable. I'll come back to you after 25 results for an early update.

  • Darts Trading

    1 Votes
    3 Posts
    63 Views

    @Martin I love it but I don't trade it at all sadly, I know that there used to be a cricket trader here who played around with it.

    Nothing for me though, it's also a sport that I just want to enjoy instead of looking for angles 😄

    Me and the wife love watching the darts at xmas lol

  • Selection suggestions.

    0 Votes
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    @Mark-Maguire thanks for your informed response, the thing that's stuck in my head since I started all this was the advice on sticking to one strategy and learn the rules of that one before moving onto another, another thing I've learnt is recording absolutely everything, goals, times, ht/ft scores etc, like what you've mentioned in your reply, having all the info to read and looking over it to find patterns then trying to make my own strategy out of my findings, I have numerous spreadsheets of info I've collected from the preset filters, I need to keep on doing this for a bit longer to gather as much as I can then hopefully use it to my advantage .

  • SOFTWARE

    0 Votes
    18 Posts
    256 Views

    @Adam Thanks for sharing your story, I do fear that I will be just going through the motions before giving it all up to do this full time. Tbh, I think it's just a matter of time. There is so much more to explore 🙂 I will keep you posted.

  • pre season trading

    1 Votes
    7 Posts
    126 Views

    @Adam said in pre season trading:

    @james-everard said in pre season trading:

    Interesting for a potential accumulator if you can find a site that has Nat North , find hardly any betting sites go below the conference national which is a shame as i like my non league football. Had a look and can't find any sites

    Agreed! Some of the best opportunities for football in the non-league games. Paddy and Coral used to do it and there used to be some Irish bookies that offered them but I can't find them now.

    Odds are usually decent as well, faves pretty much always over 1.5 even though they generally win over 70% of the time.

    i think i did an accumulator last season with a bookies that went down to Conference South/North level but can''t find anyone this season .

    Will look at potential trading nearer to the season start (taking the advice as will know better once most of the transfers have occurred )

  • Super Late Goals Strategy

    1 Votes
    27 Posts
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    Hi Martin - would it be possible to get a copy of your sheet for the Super Late Goals filter? I can't seem to find it on the shared profitable members sheet. Thanks

  • Beliefs

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    I used to believe winning the battle each day was the key to being profitable with trading. Turns out you winning the long term war is far more important.

  • ADHD & Trading

    3 Votes
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    195 Views

    @Akiva-Anderson You're doing god's work my friend, thank you.

  • Football Scalping

    2 Votes
    24 Posts
    4k Views

    @james-heathcote-0 Hi James. I came across your post about your automated pre-match scalping (2 years ago). Are you still implementing this? I would love to implement myself if you wouldn't mind sharing? does it take into account the weight of money or anything like that?

  • BTC Daily Email Q and A Thread

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    258 Posts
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    @martin Condolences for the troubled times

  • Overfiltering

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    15 Posts
    330 Views

    @michael-doering

    PG= Per Tor
    PM= Per Spiel

    Durchschnittliche Scoring Time kann man auch in BTC Statistiken finden:
    0_1681333269432_61cb067d-6924-4dbc-8a69-8c4dffd02d03-image.png

  • 0 Votes
    329 Posts
    44k Views

    @conor-medlyn Hey buddy,

    I will speak with Martin about this one as it's my strategy but I didn't track it on those sheets, Martin did.

    I have been running it since the start all those years ago 16/17 now, which is scary. It's always been profitable year on year for me hence why I still use it.

    It is a riskier long term strategy as the losses hurt more because of laying.

  • Six nations

    2 Votes
    16 Posts
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    Might lay France to win the world cup after that performance today. Odds of about 4 atm.

  • Pinnacle Sportsbook

    1 Votes
    1 Posts
    144 Views
    No one has replied