Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    20 Topics
    6k Posts

    Today I will show what I consider a good foundation of estimations or a raw sketch of parameters or criteria considered before the trading opportunity.

    Let's say the strategy is as follows

    I want a favorite with odds of 1.5 and below and they won more matches than underdog.

    I want the ranking table positions to be top to middle top to bottom or middle to bottom and no other ranking positions.

    The favorite won 60% out of 10 previous and the underdog won 70% out of 10 earlier on the same surface and would not qualify.
    However, a 70% win ratio for the favorite and a 30% or less win ratio for the underdog would give the green light for deeper analyses.

    Now we could look into previous games' break points and comeback ratios with the model mentioned above for each game.

    Here we can compare to soccer with no goals at the 70-minute mark to make Time Decay Value in Tennis Match and Hedge for a TIE with no loss.

    I just sum it up like that and wish all the best as I have no interest in teaching when there is no interest in this topic.
    I will just make the winning model and post the results of my winning trades.

    Simple as that, Smile ...

    Further, if you build an algorithm ... consider the following ...
    Tennis Prediction Algorithm

    Skills
    Head to Head
    Rating and countries
    Current form
    Tiredness and retiring
    Tournament

    Upon this probability calculation is made

    The analysis is split into Three parts

    Three Periods

    In the first interval, all matches played in the last 365 Days
    The second interval, 730 Days excluding the 365
    In the third interval, all matches during the career excluding

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    @Nathan-Bennett Cruel, just friggin snowed here🤣

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    71 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Patrik-Mellqvist ok so you have completely different filters that is why the selections you expect are not showing.

    'H2 over 0.5' means over 0.5 in the second half (either team in the match could score)
    'Scored' means the specific team would have to have scored, not either team in the match, so much less chance a team scores 60% of the time, than either team scores 20%.

    You need to use the same metric for both filters if you want to get the matches pop up on both. So for example you can choose 'Home' 'Scored in H2' rather than 'H2 over 0.5'.

    Hope that makes sense.

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    199 Topics
    369 Posts

    @Jonathan-McDaid love it cheers!

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    45 Topics
    855 Posts

    @Martin Thanks Martin for posting this for us out there who don’t know spreadsheets too well 👍

  • 100 Topics
    5k Posts

    Just watched a film called 'Aftersun'.

    Real slow burner as father takes his 11yr old daughter on holiday. Alot is video camera footage as the little girl now 20yrs older looks back. Some is her memories.

    It's incredibly moving and very sad but I won't say too much more.

  • I'll be back!

    3 Votes
    2 Posts
    306 Views
  • Lucky 15

    0 Votes
    2 Posts
    300 Views

    Never tried it - too many variables for me

  • 0 Votes
    30 Posts
    2k Views

    @martin-futter I agree, thought although it wasn't the most exciting fight AJ did well here, it was a tactical fight where he did well for it.

  • Ryan's NFL Trading

  • Which filter to choose?

    0 Votes
    20 Posts
    982 Views

    @keith-anderson said in Which filter to choose?:

    In truth, I don't know what my strike rate is. All I know is that I make money every month. I've started keeping a blog of my trades, so hopefully I'll find out more. I don't trade every game on my filter, sometimes the odds are too high and sometimes I don't like the in-play stats.

    Also, the filter is based on '3 goals or more'. There are plenty of matches that I trade that are not of that filter. I only really LTD - that is all I do. I don't get involved in horses, nfl, cricket or tennis. I also don't back or lay the goals market. I don't need to.

    What are you looking for on the in-play stats? SOT? How lively the games is?

  • George Groves v Chris Eubank Jr

    0 Votes
    8 Posts
    481 Views

    Easy money that, knew Eubank shouldn't be favourite here

  • 0 Votes
    11 Posts
    538 Views

    @martin-futter will catch up with it tonight, buzzing for it!

  • Other Podcasts

    1 Votes
    7 Posts
    457 Views

    @ryan-carruthers I have listened to that one for a couple of years.

    This one is great for BTC: https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-105-brendan-poots/

  • Terry Steers NFL

    2 Votes
    27 Posts
    2k Views

    @martin-futter said in Terry Steers NFL:

    @terry-steer said in Terry Steers NFL:

    posting for interest only

    Falcons @ Eagles under 41
    Titans @ patriots over 48

    boom and boom!

    Agree!! (Despite you sounding like Basil Brush!)

  • 24/1 Double Bet Update

    0 Votes
    4 Posts
    399 Views

    Bama wins! 4/1 winner there 🙂 essentially the double bet is now in from our 25.0 odds back and layable at 2.88. Can now hedge for a massive profit or let it run.