@lee-woodman First things is the staking for me, that has been picked up by others as well

Second hasn’t been picked up, when in this situation before I’ve set myself a deadline on it this could be timing or money it loses - then it goes into a data phase, because variance happens but we can tell ourselves to stick with it and its just variance - hence why I do if it loses X I’ll move it to tracking only.

If it comes back and proves itself it can go back in with money - if not you’ve cut the losses but still got the data.

I like the goal markets, because it doesn't matter who scores them.

Which is one of the big pluses and when a team gets a sniff of something and it flows through the team and they are firing then you can get some results like last night - which don't give you a nightmare to manage if your in the match odds market!

@john-folan And recovers naturally haha!

@lee-bundy comm is only charged on profit, therefore you would never lose money on a profitable trade in a single market.

how do you work out which teams go into ip4 ip3 and ip2 thanks

@lee-woodman said in O1.5:

@daniel-cooper Hi Daniel, I’m still trading them at very small stakes whilst collecting more data. I was probably a little hasty in posting them; whilst the initial filtered data looks good I should’ve taken an extra step in testing and refining the information for maximum benefit. There’s been about month so far and just simply lay U1.5 has returned about 6 pts which is decent enough so far, but 2 or 3 losses can eat this up quite quickly. They aren’t my main trades, that’s actually what I should’ve done a post on, but I still think these will be good in a few months time

Cheers for the response! Makes sense 😁 look forward to hearing from you

@shane-mc-loughlin hey buddy,

This is something I have looked at many years ago, I’ll look at my notes not sure where I saved it - I think it’s a cracker of a market when you get it right you are storming.

Same with poison (iPad auto correct grrr!) hows that looking so far?

@ian-love 90min mate

@ian-love Hey bud,

I'd put this in the football thread, but I would say with anything its about building the filter out then testing it and working through the data to see how it can be tweaked to make it better all the time.

If there has been one goal then you would use the O1.5 market, if there has been 2 goals then you would use O2.5 goals market and so on. You can back overs or lay unders, doesn’t make too much difference. You could lay current score if you want but I don’t see a benefit over just using the next overs market

@ian-love welcome!

Gotcha,

Wasn't 100% sure on it but now I know.

So the reason I was looking at those stats was this filter was pretty much my first way of trading football and I built upon it over the years and these were the additions I added in.

It's a longer term play as it has ups and downs over a season but its profitable longer term.

Confused with wording this, took me a few times to read it and tbh im still unsure. However if iv read it right then its simpler than i thought to explain, think your making it more complicated for yourself. Think thats why ryan stopped on his reply.

Are you saying you have a 82% strike rate and are using odds of 1.3?

Lets use £10 staking:

18 losses = £180
82 wins = (1 win = £2.94 after comms)x82 = £241
P/L = (wins £241-losses £180) = +£61 so if we were using 1 point staking with these £10 stakes that means we are making around 6.1 points per 100 traded games as a base. Then you can adjust that to your staking.

However like i said im confused with your wording but have given an answer as to what i think your asking for which is whats the p/l of 82% strike rate with 1.3 odds taken. That above is how i do my stuff.

@nick-allan if you get stuck with any of it just tag me and I’ll sort it for you mate.

@luis they can be slightly different because software is updated quite often but it shouldn't be anything too drastic

@matt-wood nice one mate, from there you can correlate with the odds to find the "sweet spot", so on the new sheet you could also add what each score line has done p/l wise also, thats why its good you have also tracked the odds at the time so you can get the actual p/l and strike rates needed.

I'll tag @Ryan-Carruthers to give you some more information on this strategy as it is one of his. He is on paternity leave at the moment but should be back in the next few days.

@luis can generally assume game didn't happen if result isn't in google, tough to keep up as so many games are being cancelled

@lee-woodman

Depends on what you do with the U1.5 or U2.5. My view, because I'm lazy, is to let them run. A change in timing of goals make no difference in that case.
If, say, U2.5 set and forget is profitable, then it counters any shortfall in number of goals scored.

That said, there will be a rebound/correction in number of goals scored at some point.

@liam-willis spot on mate, value is value regardless. many people care too much about labelling something or categorizing things within trading, whatever type of bet/trade your doing it will involve some element of risk. Long term profit is all that matters in my opinion nothing else, all the things we do that can limit risk are what separates us from the average punter but that doesnt mean each market entry has got to be labelled a trade or a bet to win. If your doing a 2nd half trade be mindful that there is a heavy bias towards goals coming post 70 mins, so to be entering a trade with the intention to trade out before this time period can be more counter intuitive to risk than youd expect.