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Lay Under 1.5.

FRA 5.7 - 11.0
PER (Alianza) 3.15-11.0
PER (U. de Deportes) 3.15-7.4
AUS 3.15-6.6

@Alastair-Todd said in 🔮⚽ Predict the Winners: Enter the 2025 Football Betting Challenge! ⚽🔮:

@Richard-Latimer said in 🔮⚽ Predict the Winners: Enter the 2025 Football Betting Challenge! ⚽🔮:

@Alastair-Todd said in 🔮⚽ Predict the Winners: Enter the 2025 Football Betting Challenge! ⚽🔮:

@Richard-Latimer said in 🔮⚽ Predict the Winners: Enter the 2025 Football Betting Challenge! ⚽🔮:

@Alastair-Todd said in 🔮⚽ Predict the Winners: Enter the 2025 Football Betting Challenge! ⚽🔮:

@Richard-Latimer said in 🔮⚽ Predict the Winners: Enter the 2025 Football Betting Challenge! ⚽🔮:

@Alastair-Todd I said the same about the laying. It's theoretical money anyway for this so if you wanted to convert your back odds to lay odds and change you score so to speak based on £10 lay stakes I wouldn't have a problem.

If any of us are going to win I think we want to win fairly. What say you @Martin?

Richard, I've taken the international break to work out what my profit/loss would be if had been using £10 lay stakes like you are, instead of using £10 liability by backing. It makes me think that you are selling yourself short with your profit levels. You have been doing very well at this challenge and have had many winning days, and on that basis I'm sure your profit should actually be a lot higher.

I've had quite a few 4/4 and 5/5 days as well but have also had some notable bad days (8 March) where I would have lost over £85 on the day had I been laying instead of backing. However my running total on this basis is a lot higher than the total I am currently sitting at based on backing. Just to make sure I haven't messed up the maths (wouldn't be the first time), can you confirm that if I lost a trade where I had backed at 1.24 for example (4 March) the lay would have been 4.2 and so my £10 lay would have lost £42?

Yeah 5.2 so you'd have lost £42.00 (4.2x stake).

Pretty sure mine is where it should be after the horror weekend.

So you're now winning haha?

It looks that way at the moment although I haven't had a single trade for the last 11 days. Rather than a winning trade netting me about £2 or £3 and instead using the system that nets £9.80 per winning trade (and much bigger losses on losing trades), my running total with £10 stakes is currently +£294.40

Thought it would be.

£125 to make up ffs😂

Don't worry, this can turn very quickly - I lost over £80 on the 8th of March. The key thing is that it's time to get back into it with the resumption of decent football again.

Yes and I lost way more than that haha! March has been about catch up ever since. Key thing is I know why that weekend went so bad and can hopefully stop it happening again.....

@Ryan Yeah, already winning 😁

These sort of things are great, for me as a new trader it is fine to see your matches each day but this is going to make me drill down into the why - and assess the results.

Hopefully there will be more taking the opportunity soon 🤞

Thursday 27/03/25 (Day 37):-

Home win bet tonight at 11:30pm in Chile between Everton and Universidad Chile. Home odds need to be 5.0 or lower (currently around 4.2ish last time I checked) and over 2.5 goals odds below evens 15 mins pre-kick off.

Also looking at laying the draw and BTTS pre-match in the Ayacucho v Melgar game (8:30pm kick off). Draw lay odds need to be 4.80 or lower 5 mins pre-KO (currently 4.40) to be eligible and over 2.5 goals must NOT be higher than the morning price (1.90) for BTTS to get the green light.

Busy few days coming now we've got proper football back; BRING. IT. ON!

@Everyone I have created a form for you guys to fill in to make this a real team activity, basically you get XP points and levels based on what information you give us and what tasks you do.

It's all very straight forward and is meant to make this a lot more fun and more as a team, there will be loads of you who are on the same strategy so it will help all of you out.

You can fill in the form here https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfeZaJFLqVDLdrd6zN79e21POuQGyR-QJYucuTY8tyLc1l_jQ/viewform?usp=header

I will get this emailed out to you regular as well.

there are prizes for the winners each month 😄

Bear with me as I didnt use @Adam for any of this so there might be a few glitches with it which then he will have to sort.

I want feedback as well, I want this to be something you use.

@Patrik-Mellqvist check the amount of top flight league games taking place this week compared to a "normal" week - it'll all be back to normal at the end of the month.

Chat GPT predicted France v Croatia FHG and Italy v Germany FHG. It was correct on both counts.

@ellis-slater here is a template you can use to track it:

Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@Luke-Edward-Walker you could look at high draw at HT % and then low draw at FT %

@james-everard that is fantastic! Well done mate

@Luke-Edward-Walker happens mate! You'll see absolutely everything in this game! As long as you were following a set strategy and stuck to your rules, then there's no reason to shy away from doing it again; it's all about finding something and sticking with it over a long period of time - otherwise you'll never know whether or not it works. Keep at it!

February was a shocking month with all the profits from previous months wiped out. I think for next season flat staking would be the way to go, rather than 2% of the bank each month.

However, that was my challenge, so staking back to 2%

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Serie A and Liga Portugal both still in profit

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But the Prem has fallen right off

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Will see what March brings!

ok thanks martin

Great post, this is something I always keep an eye on, brings home the benefits of longer term testing. If you rely on goals to win in your strategy and you know you're profitable when goals are at usual levels, then just hang in there, because once goals hit 3+ a game then you'll likely benefit hugely.

Here is the strategy download from the Lay The Home Team youtube video this week:

Lay Home Team Strategy.txt

You can upload this to your own software by copying the test from the file and pasting it here, then click 'import':
Screenshot (84).png

Give it a name and click 'save' to save it.

Or if you would like me to add it for you, just let me know in the comments below.

@Tony-Hastie said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

I chucked the back home and back away strategies into the football software to see what they brought up...got this a few times now. Back the draw?😁Screenshot 2025-01-14 132032.png

to be fair you would have made a profit backing both as the winner was 3.0+ odds 😄

@Peter-Adams there aren't any SHG specific stats in the ratings, they tend to cover 90mins

@james-everard Well there have been 5 posts today already, so things are hotting up 🙂 but seriously it would be great to see what people are up to, not to copy them but to learn a few tricks of the trade (pun intended :))

This conclusion is based on my experience and testing.
You might get results other than mine and are free to speak up.

First out ...
SHG "any score line" at 1.4 between 60/64 min mark.
Run several weekends with Fairbot and it did not perform as expected.

Update with the next test ...
Richards SHG at 1.2 Set & Forget

Cheers