Leagues!
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Theres been a lot of discussion about which leagues to trade, which not to trade and which we feel we should be trading but just really drive us insane! Im interested to hear peoples thoughts on how they select which leagues to include or exclude. A while ago i set categories of grade A and grade B leagues which was decided on my own personal opinion of what i thought was a decent league to trade from the perspective of liquidity and quality of league (not results based, just my preconception). The hypothesis being that more competitive leagues are generally more reliable and that better teams in those leagues have better options with regards to tactics, fitness, substitutions, squad depth (ie injuries) which i think is more relevant to SH goals. There was definitely a difference in my figures from my original filter when separating out the B quality leagues. As ive gathered more data ive noticed there are certain leagues which i originally categorised as grade A which come up a lot on initial filters but dont always seem to return great stats, such as Japan (J League 1 & 2) and Norway OBOS-Ligaen.
So im just curious to see how people approach a league when they get adverse results. Do you get rid of the league altogether? If so, how many results before you do? Do you keep going and put it down to variance? Do you go somewhere in the middle and look further into that league and say WHY is it performing badly (maybe there are opportunities still but there are other factors - end of season, more research needed etc)
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@lee-woodman Ahahaha yes!
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@ryan It reminds me of when kids play at a young age and the ball goes to one side of the pitch and then the whole team goes to that side; back over the other side of the pitch the ball goes and so do 90% of the players!
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@lee-woodman Some under 6's level of defending there isn't there!
I love the old boys who've been good and are like 35 and are just fuming at the rest of the team.
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@lee-woodman I think the best bit is the commentary. Those commentators really get in to it!
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@martin A lot of the South American leagues are! I’ve caught bits of Bolivian games and it’s almost comical at times, no wonder they appear on so many filters for expecting goals!
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I'd imagine these are some of the most common, mine so far...
English Premier League, French Ligue 1, Italy Serie A, Belgium Jupiler, Dutch Eredivsie, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga, USA MLS, Japanese J League.
I quite enjoy watching how different countries have different playing styles. The South American games are some of the most entertaining, I just haven't figured out trading them yet.
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@darri said in Leagues!:
@marco-frankfort its mistakes that tend to hurt most traders, because its extremely easy to find a good strategy but extremely difficult to manage it well. Its all about mindset and mental management once you find the strategy you plan to use. Dont get cocky with wins and dont get emotional at losses. I actually dont even think about the numbers of wins and losses till end of month. Also a good first step for yourself might be to start thinking of managing your trading via the points system which has been commonly used on here. Will help show your true progress rather than solid £ or euros signs.
However this thread is about leagues so we are moving a bit off topic
Sorry about that , iam still getting used to the forrum format and discusion tab.
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@marco-frankfort its mistakes that tend to hurt most traders, because its extremely easy to find a good strategy but extremely difficult to manage it well. Its all about mindset and mental management once you find the strategy you plan to use. Dont get cocky with wins and dont get emotional at losses. I actually dont even think about the numbers of wins and losses till end of month. Also a good first step for yourself might be to start thinking of managing your trading via the points system which has been commonly used on here. Will help show your true progress rather than solid £ or euros signs.
However this thread is about leagues so we are moving a bit off topic
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@darri Well , i had a verry good 3 days trade run 600 profit 3 days ,with a limited bank that made me verry happy , then lost 460 due to a stupid mistake. forgetting a comma in a lay .
And that made me extremly happy, not about losing the money or beeing anoyed by the stupid mistake .
But realising , that i could trade it all back in a few hrs.
And have no emotional response of the los.Actualy verry happy i made this mistake , as i feel this will make me a better trader.
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@darri Will do. one of the reasons for joining . learning from others .
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@marco-frankfort as long as you know that youll be fine
any questions just ask -
@darri True , that is why its a guide line , and you still need to do your home work .
There is a wonderfull saying ; Asumption is the mother of all screwups. "
And just like the warning they post on financial products.
Past results are no guarantee for the future
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@marco-frankfort remember what trading is all about tho. Data like this is very common to find. The betfair markets also know this. Trading is all about VALUE. Finding the games in each league that might outperform or underperform this common data is how youll find long term success. These game will be too heavily favoured one way and you take advantage. Common data actually kills a lot of traders thought process. They see a league with such good goals stats yet actually the markets are aligned to that. Have to be looking for a decent edge not just follow the markets.
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@martin As only started trading a few months ago , i did not have a chance to trade much in the european leagues as they where at the end of the season .
So i did not have a chance to do much trading there.
However i do love the Dutch leagues. they are great for the over goal line markets. an
Average goal line of the Eredivisie was 3.0 last season.
Average goal line of the Eerste divisie was 3.24. . las season.
But they are verry consistant.and both teams usualy score. even with the high scoring teams the under 2,5 goal market is still succesfull. i would not lay a draw in the first division as that result is verry commen.The Belgian league is simular but with a lower average goal line . and easier to manage . with the under , lay the draw markets.
The J league is one of my favorites a 2.45 average goal line, consitant late first goals. and often an extra time goal. low amount of yelow cards , extra time is always added to almost full extend .and often a goal is scored in extra time.
Then there are the scandinavian leagues . for example Finland has 2.3 average goals in their league , i use it for the under 2.5 , laying the draw , and my favorite laying the over 4.5 or 5.5 goal market. after an early goal. as the prices drop hard and go up almost imediatly . and low risk as there goals scored rarely go over 4 goals.
These are just a few of the leagues and examples , i had the chance to start researching.
The leagues is stay away from even with the low scoring averages are the north african , midel east , colombia venezuela as red cards fauls ,are so common that a penalty is always around the corner ruining every thing.
But thank you now i realise i must make a digital representation , out of my pen and paper notes.
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Well iam fairly new to trading just a few months .But i found that some leagues and regions are verry suited to one strategy and other leagues to another.
I took a simple piece of paper drew lines of average goal markets and placed leagues
that had lower average goals below the line and the ones over above the line .And adjusted my strategy to those leagues.
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@lee-woodman said in Leagues!:
@bottlabroon said in Leagues!:
I don't exclude any leagues based on performance, I tend to find lower scoring leagues are compensated for by better prices. I mainly exclude on liquidity and the time I like to trade so it's mainly European leagues for me. Most Asian and American markerts are not really conducive to my preferred time slots for trading.
I get the whole price vs value thing and its a great point. But if you had a league which DIDNT offer you good value and the stats arent great, would you continue with it, drop it or tighten up on the criteria in other ways?
I don't consider if a league offers me good value Lee, I only consider individual matches on their own merit. My shortlist compilation has a 'perceived value' element built in to it from Betfair prices, so for instance I could have 2 games with identical pre-match stats and the over 2.5 is 1.70 on one and 2.30 and the other so the 2.30 game might qualify with the other one not. Or, I might have 2 games with the same prices and the 1.70 game qualifies and the 2.30 one doesn't due to it's superior stats.
At the end of the day though, the compilation of a shortlist for me is only a way to filter out those matches I want to keep an eye on in play - I can't follow every match on a busy day/night, it's the IP that will decide if I want to trade it or not.
For anybody that's seen my trades on the football thread, it's pretty obvious what my trading style is. Identify a match with some perceived value in the goals market, follow the IP and try to get in when I think the first goal is likely and then try to remove my liability from the trade after a goal. I'm happy to go with any match that is on my shortlist with decent IP and the league doesn't come into it.
After saying all that though - I suppose the league does actually play a part because I find myself not getting in to many Dutch or Bundesliga trades because they rarely seem to offer me much value whereas I get in to a lot of Italian trades because they do. I'm not filtering out those leagues per se, it's just the prices of the goals markets on each individual game.
Not saying it's the right way, only what works for me. Where the league does play a part is that I prefer the better leagues on the basis that they have the better players and are likely to be more consistent because of that IMO. In some of the more obscure leagues fantastic IP stats can mean nothing if the 22 stone striker couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo
