Hi all,
Just watched your late goal after 74 mins video on youtube, any chance of the filter?
Thanks

@Everyone Martin and I are planning some good podcasts and videos covering the summer leagues, I want to know your Q’s / Concerns or comments about the summer leagues?

for today

07/04/2025 India Indian Super League Mohun Bagan Super Giants Jamshedpur FC 6.2

For the most part the away lays kept on rolling. I had no data on USL and now I have 1 trade, 1 loss. Take that league out of contention until I see what it offers moving forward.

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@Patrik-Mellqvist Amazing, you’ve really taken all of this in and ran with it really impressive stuff.

Evening all an update for April. A very poor month indeed so much so i will be cutting back on some of the systems to paper trade these instead for a while

System 1 -Back under 1.5 goals ft version D (3-0-3.55 Odds) check h2h
Trades 18
won 5
lost 13
s/rate 27.78%
Lost £75.87

System 2- Back draw at k/o version M(H2H Based)3.80-4.50 odds, check elo and league positions
Trades 29
won 6
lost 23%
s/rate 20.69%
Lost £192.15

System 3
Back under 2.5 goals Ft (odds 2.0+)check h2h
Trades 66
won 29
lost 37
s/rate 43.94%
lost £156.20

System 4 - Lay home at k/o 5.0-6.0 (check h2h)
Trades 20
won 17
lost 3
s/rate 85%
Lost £0.40p

System 5- Lay Under 2.5 goals H2 Goals( Odds 1.30 below at h/t)
Trades 16
Won 2
lost 14
s/rate 12.50%
Lost £89.46

System 6- Back over 1.5 FH Goals (odds 2.42+) check h2h
Trades 31
Won 13
Lost 18
s/rate 41.93%
Profit £34.12

So a big loss, my biggest loss in trading for a couple of years. With the end of season now approaching for the winter leagues most i won't be trading now anyway. My rules are once teams have 5 games left of the season i stop trading these matches.
Two systems i will continue this month will be laying the home side and backing over 1.5 first half goals, the others back to paper trading along with various other systems i am recording data on.
Dust myself down and come back refreshed, new bank has been reduced from £1728.16 down to £1282.32, new 1% liability stakes of £12.82

What is your trading personality?

I made a decision last night!
I feel my comfort zone when having a high strike rate and modest return, and reasonable loss.

10% return and 50% loss give 1 in 5 for break-even.
And the strike ratio is between 85/95/100% overall.

Now to the core of this topic - my majority trading is for no goals.
Cold methods and not hot methods.

That is an key changer for me, because I have higher success with those then the other way around.
So why not turn that into my task and journey to walk when is works for me.

What are the benefits?
Based upon my opinion and experience.

The in-play stats indications are crucial.
As close as you get to match-reading from home.

Where you can estimate slow and low tempo and attacking play.
Where the likelihood and probability tendency for no goals are overwhelming.

Sure, the other way also works with for example,e 15 points with corners and shots on/off target.
But in my book, the other way around is even more effective.
3 shots off-target exit or 1 shot on-target exit.

My successes are the following ...

One scalping method (Thank you BTC)
One 10-20 min strategy (Thank you TTM)
One method from Ben (Thank you UFT)

Other benefits are that you can create LEVERAGE to make more aggressive attacks to boost profits 2x or 5x or even 10x ...

This doesn't mean that I not using other ways.
But this is my core methods that are tailored for my personality optional comfort zone that I feel and encounter succes.

Cheers Patrik

Friday 28/03/25 (Day 38)

Potential selections today come from the following:-

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Hapoel Nof HaGalil (1pm) - this was a LTD and SHG goal trade, ended 1-1 after being 0-0 @ HT so the latter won but the former lost, although it could’ve been traded for a small profit which is something I’m very much looking to do going forward. Volume and liquidity was very poor though so may be a league I’ll be leaving alone in future.

Aalborg v Viborg (6pm) - over 2.5, home lay, lay under under 1.5 and SHG trades all popped up for this one. I obviously didn’t get involved in them all but the home lay and over 2.5 both proved profitable as it ended 0-4.

Red Star v Rodez (7pm) - lay the draw in the first-half and SHG trades came up for this game and although they were both losers (1-1 @ HT and no SHG), there was plenty of opportunity to trade for a good profit in the first half.

MVV Maastricht v Emmen (7pm) - no bet.

Eindhoven v Helmond (7pm) - this came up as a LTD trade and ended 2-2 so a loser if left to run but could easily have taken profit in the second half .

Amstettan v Rapid Wien II (5pm) - no bet.

Cerezo Osaka v Urawa Reds (10am) - lay home trade which came in thanks to a late second half equaliser. 1-1.

Barry v Newtown (7:45pm) - lay the first half draw and BTTS were both successful bets/trades in this game. 2-1.

@Everyone I have created a form for you guys to fill in to make this a real team activity, basically you get XP points and levels based on what information you give us and what tasks you do.

It's all very straight forward and is meant to make this a lot more fun and more as a team, there will be loads of you who are on the same strategy so it will help all of you out.

You can fill in the form here https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfeZaJFLqVDLdrd6zN79e21POuQGyR-QJYucuTY8tyLc1l_jQ/viewform?usp=header

I will get this emailed out to you regular as well.

there are prizes for the winners each month 😄

Bear with me as I didnt use @Adam for any of this so there might be a few glitches with it which then he will have to sort.

I want feedback as well, I want this to be something you use.

@Patrik-Mellqvist check the amount of top flight league games taking place this week compared to a "normal" week - it'll all be back to normal at the end of the month.

@ellis-slater here is a template you can use to track it:

Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@Luke-Edward-Walker you could look at high draw at HT % and then low draw at FT %

@Luke-Edward-Walker happens mate! You'll see absolutely everything in this game! As long as you were following a set strategy and stuck to your rules, then there's no reason to shy away from doing it again; it's all about finding something and sticking with it over a long period of time - otherwise you'll never know whether or not it works. Keep at it!

February was a shocking month with all the profits from previous months wiped out. I think for next season flat staking would be the way to go, rather than 2% of the bank each month.

However, that was my challenge, so staking back to 2%

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Serie A and Liga Portugal both still in profit

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But the Prem has fallen right off

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Will see what March brings!

ok thanks martin

Great post, this is something I always keep an eye on, brings home the benefits of longer term testing. If you rely on goals to win in your strategy and you know you're profitable when goals are at usual levels, then just hang in there, because once goals hit 3+ a game then you'll likely benefit hugely.

Here is the strategy download from the Lay The Home Team youtube video this week:

Lay Home Team Strategy.txt

You can upload this to your own software by copying the test from the file and pasting it here, then click 'import':
Screenshot (84).png

Give it a name and click 'save' to save it.

Or if you would like me to add it for you, just let me know in the comments below.

@Tony-Hastie said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

I chucked the back home and back away strategies into the football software to see what they brought up...got this a few times now. Back the draw?😁Screenshot 2025-01-14 132032.png

to be fair you would have made a profit backing both as the winner was 3.0+ odds 😄

@Peter-Adams there aren't any SHG specific stats in the ratings, they tend to cover 90mins