I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

@Alex-Rendell yeah, i'd like the numbers to be a bit more exciting long term

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Update for April , still paper trading lots of strategies in the hope come September that i will have enough data to potential start trading with real money again. I have done what i don't normally do by recording data on all matches even though coming to a close of the season seeing if any systems perform poorly . Based on £10 stakes

System 1- BACK AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS ODDS 8.0+( New strategy for April)
April 26- Trades 30 , won 4 , lost 26, s/rate 13.33% profit £101.62

System 2- INJURY TIME GOAL VER B ( LAST 5 MATCHES ) odds 1.30 below
April 26- Trades 87, won 25, lost 62, s/rate 28.74% Profit £229.50
Total Trades since Feb26- Trades 174, won 52, lost 122, s/rate 29.88% profit £592.26

System 3- LAY U2.5 H1 GOALS ( ODDS 1.40 BELOW)
April 26- Trades 78, won 13,lost 65, s/rate 16.67% lost £13.78
Total trades since jan26- Trades 192, won 34, lost 158, s/rate 17.71% profit £219.75

System 4- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERS B( CHECK LEAGUE POS)
April 26- Trades 72, won 13, lost 59, s/rate 18.06% profit £176.36
Total trades recorded since Nov 25, -Trades 293, won 45, lost 248, s/r 15.38% profit £275.74

System 5- BACK OVER 1.5 H2 GOALS ( ODDS 2.0+ CHECK H2H 50%+)
April 26, trades 7 , won 5, lost 2, s/r 71.43% profit £34.09
Total trades since Jan26, trades 36, won 21, lost 15, s/r 58.33% profit £74.60

System 6- BACK OVER 2.5 GOALS FT VERS B( 2.0+ CHECK H2H 50%+)
April 26, Trades 138, won 53,lost 85, s/r 38.40% Lost £216.73
Total trades recorded since Nov 25, Trades 1024,won 478, lost 546, s/r 46.68% profit £407.83

System 7- BACK 1-1 HT CS (ODDS 6.0+) New system
April 26- Trades 10, won 2, lost 8, s/rate 20% profit £82.68

System 8 - BACK 2-1 FT CS VER A( CHECK ELO HIGHER HOME) NEW
April 26- Trades 62, won 9 , lost 53,s/r 14.52% profit £295.16

System 9 - INJURY TIME GOAL LAST 10
April 26- Trades 34, won 12, lost 22, s/r 35.29% profit £232.52
Total trades recorded since Jan 25- Trades 238, won 70,lost 168, s/r 29.41% profit £852.66

System 10 - BACK 1ST HALF GOAL ON 40MINS( IF NO GOAL 30-39)
April 26- Trades 34, won 13, lost 21, s/rate 44.74% profit £214.75
Total recorded trades since Jan 26- Trades 136, won 39,lost 97, s/rate 28.68% profit £339.50

system 11- BACK OVER 1.5 H1 GOALS ( 2.0+)
April 26- Trades 9,won 4,lost 5,s/r 44.44% profit £0.76p
Total trades since recorded in March26, trades 22, won 10,lost 12,s/rate 45.45% profit £28.27

System 12- BACK HOME AT K/O ODDS 3.0-3.50
April 26- Trades 42,won 9, lost 33, s/rate 21.43% lost £134.49
Total recorded since august 25- trades 167, won 58,lost 109 ,s/r 34.73% profit £167.74

System 13- BACK DRAW AT K/O VERSION W
April 26- Trades 42, won 13, lost 29, s/rate 30.95% profit £46.14
Total trades since Feb 26- Trades 87, won 22, lost 65,s/rate 25.29% profit £160.66

System 13- BACK 1-0 FT CS VER Q
April 26, Trades 22,won 3,lost 19, s/rate 13.64% profit £7.96
Total trades recorded since feb26- Trades 36, won 7, lost 29, s/rate 19.44% profit £139.24

System 14- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
April 26- Trades 79, won 25,lost 54,s/rate 31.65% profit £107.29
Trades recorded since Jan26- Trades 289,won 96, lost 193, s/r 33.22% profit £515.59

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

f = (((b-1)*p) – (1-p)) / (b-1)

Where:

f = fraction of your bank roll to stake b = current available betting odds for selection p = true probability of winning

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

f = (((4-1) * 0.3) - (1-0.3)) / (4-1) f = 0.0667 stake = 0.0667 * 1000 = £66.70

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@allan-poulsen these are member strategies that have been shared with us over the years, not being tracked manually as it would be impossible to track (thousands of inplay data points would need to be tracked live per week manually), though when we have the next big software update (which isn't far off) it will be possible to run them through and find out.

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Martin Great, thanks

@Alex-Ionică to get 400 selections a month on a strategy can be difficult, I mean how many matches a day are likely to be value for any given strategy? Maybe 5-10? Then you would have to find them all! It's easier to do this around multiple strategies.

@Dan-Fuller I love that you have done this, this is exactly what I have been preaching for a while 2 people can trade the same strategy a different way and/or spot things that make it slightly different.

Theres been a few you might find some more info on this thread https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4890/the-winning-edge-challenge-3-simple-steps/162?_=1759395327476

@Alex-Rendell As I was working on the spreadsheet this morning I noticed the formula for the No. of selections was picking up the SHG column - now amended and posted below.

It was interesting as some of the leagues that are struggling with FHG were 100% on SHG.

Also have removed about 12 leagues

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing

@Richard-Latimer just finally working through the 951 results from the FHG Winning Edge strat so it wasn't my original but will be edited by me - hope that counts.

Trying to take some of the volatility out of it by reducing leagues & Odds, should be ready in time.......although I might change my mind in the next 3 days 😆

@Martin been going nearly two weeks. Chose to start on the 1st of August. Starting Bankroll just £100 with 2-3% Stakes. So far so good. Will post an update early September.

@Justyna ah right fair enough then, I don't like youth teams in general playing in the adult leagues tend to avoid them but that's personal preference.