@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Disappointing night going 1/2 on both. Tomorrow:

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Lay Under 1.5/Under 2.5

1/2 again. Difficult couple of days!

@james-everard youve done some amazing stuff!

@Adam thanks so much for the reply Adam, congratulations on the stunning new software.

Danish, Czech & Swiss leagues start back this weekend

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

Where:

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@allan-poulsen these are member strategies that have been shared with us over the years, not being tracked manually as it would be impossible to track (thousands of inplay data points would need to be tracked live per week manually), though when we have the next big software update (which isn't far off) it will be possible to run them through and find out.

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Martin Great, thanks

@Alex-Ionică to get 400 selections a month on a strategy can be difficult, I mean how many matches a day are likely to be value for any given strategy? Maybe 5-10? Then you would have to find them all! It's easier to do this around multiple strategies.

@Dan-Fuller I love that you have done this, this is exactly what I have been preaching for a while 2 people can trade the same strategy a different way and/or spot things that make it slightly different.

Theres been a few you might find some more info on this thread https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4890/the-winning-edge-challenge-3-simple-steps/162?_=1759395327476

@Alex-Rendell As I was working on the spreadsheet this morning I noticed the formula for the No. of selections was picking up the SHG column - now amended and posted below.

It was interesting as some of the leagues that are struggling with FHG were 100% on SHG.

Also have removed about 12 leagues

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing

@Richard-Latimer just finally working through the 951 results from the FHG Winning Edge strat so it wasn't my original but will be edited by me - hope that counts.

Trying to take some of the volatility out of it by reducing leagues & Odds, should be ready in time.......although I might change my mind in the next 3 days 😆

@Martin been going nearly two weeks. Chose to start on the 1st of August. Starting Bankroll just £100 with 2-3% Stakes. So far so good. Will post an update early September.