@Richard-Latimer I have been tracking Iceland too but when i see the odds it scares me a little. Had 2 come up yesterday and both won @ 9.6 & 10.5 - even though the stats are great as a newbie it a bit eeeek. 🥸

Looking at the outrights this morning. Think it could be a good time to back Belgium.

Think they have a very good chance of getting to the last 16 where they will probably play the US for a place in the quarters. At the current form they lose that game. But think the current price of 50s could easily could down to 25-30 region by then for a decent trade out.

Belated update for May, the results were a bit inconsistent probably again like April with the end of the winter leagues perhaps not performing as well as prior to April. Anyway here are the results i have recorded, all based on £10 liability test stakes

System 1- BACK AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS
May 26 - Trades 61,won7,lost 54,s/rate 11.47% profit £93.08
Total trades tested 91, won 11, lost 80, s/rate 12.09% profit £194.70

System 2- Injury Time goal version B ( last 5 matches) odds 1.30 below
May 26, Trades 78, won 19, lost 59, s/rate 24.36% Profit £30.79
Total trades recorded since Feb- 252, won 71, lost 181, s/rate 28.17% profit £623.05

System 3- Lay Under 2.5 Half 1 goals ( 1.40 odds below)
May 26- Trades 55, won 10, lost 45, s/rate 18.42% profit £78.33
Total trades since Jan- 247, won 44, lost 203, s/rate 17.81% profit £298.08

System 4- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERSION B(CHECK LEAGUE POS)
May 26- Trades 81, won 6, lost 75, s/rate 7.41% lost £305.08
Total Trades since nov 25, Trades 374, won 51,lost 323, s/rate 13.64% lost £29.34

System 5- Back Over 1.5 half 2 goals ( odds 2.0+ check h2h)
May 26- Trades 7 , won 2, lost 5, s/rate 28.57% lost £28.84
Total trades recorded since Jan26- Trades 43, won 23,lost 20, s/r 53.49% profit £45.76

System 6- Back over 2.5 goals ft vers b(2.0+ odds check h2h 50%+)
May 26- Trades 31, won 11, lost 20, s/r 35.48% lost £62.02
Total trades since Nov25- trades 1055, won 489,lost 566,s/r 46.35% profit £345.81

System 8 - Back 2-1 Ft cs opt A- ( check elo)
May 26- Trades 52, won 3, lost 49,s/r 5.77% lost £139.16
Total trades since April-114, won 12, lost 102,s/r 10.53% profit £156.00

System 9 - Injury time goal last 10
May 26- Trades 30, won 6, lost 24,s/rate 20% lost £13.74
Total trades since Jan25- Trades 268, won 76, lost 192,s/r 28.36% profit £838.92

System 10 - Back 1st half goal on 40mins( if no goal 30-39)
May26- trades 47,won 10,lost 37,s/r 21.28% lost £43.27
Total trades since jan- 183, won 49,lost 134,s/r 26.78% profit £296.23

System 11- Back over 1.5 Fh Goals (odds 2.0+)
May 26- Trades 1, won1,lost0,s/r 100%, profit £12.34
Total trades since March 23,won 11,lost 12,s/rate 47.83% profit £40.61

System 12- Back Home at k/o odds 3.0-3.50
May 26 -Trades 24, won 7,lost 17, s/r 29.17% lost £14.18
Total trades since Aug25- trades 191,won 65,lost 126,s/r 34.03% profit £153.56

System 13 - Back Draw at K/o Version W
May 26- Trades 30, won 8,lost 22, s/r 26.67% profit £9.32
Total trades since Feb26- Trades 117,won 30, lost 87,s/r 25.64% profit £169.98

System 14- Back 1-0 Ft Cs vers Q
May 26 - Trades 13, won 3, lost 10, s/r 23.08% profit £111.68
Total trades Since Feb26- Trades 49,won 10,lost 39, s/r 20.41% profit £270.92

System 15- BTTS AT HALF TIME IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
May 26- Trades 68,won 17,lost 51,s/rate 25% lost £78.31
Trades rec since jan26- 357, WON 113, LOST 244, s/r 31.65% profit £437.28

System 15- Back the draw for Half 1( odds 2.0+)
May 26- Trades 24, won 14, lost 10, s/r 58.33% profit £82.08
Total trades to date trades 56,won 28, lost 28,s/rate 50% profit £ 70.24

Plenty others that i have amended the filters testing on hopefully come September i will have enough data for one or two systems to start trading on

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

Where:

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@allan-poulsen these are member strategies that have been shared with us over the years, not being tracked manually as it would be impossible to track (thousands of inplay data points would need to be tracked live per week manually), though when we have the next big software update (which isn't far off) it will be possible to run them through and find out.

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Martin Great, thanks

@Alex-Ionică to get 400 selections a month on a strategy can be difficult, I mean how many matches a day are likely to be value for any given strategy? Maybe 5-10? Then you would have to find them all! It's easier to do this around multiple strategies.

@Dan-Fuller I love that you have done this, this is exactly what I have been preaching for a while 2 people can trade the same strategy a different way and/or spot things that make it slightly different.

Theres been a few you might find some more info on this thread https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4890/the-winning-edge-challenge-3-simple-steps/162?_=1759395327476

@Alex-Rendell As I was working on the spreadsheet this morning I noticed the formula for the No. of selections was picking up the SHG column - now amended and posted below.

It was interesting as some of the leagues that are struggling with FHG were 100% on SHG.

Also have removed about 12 leagues

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing

@Richard-Latimer just finally working through the 951 results from the FHG Winning Edge strat so it wasn't my original but will be edited by me - hope that counts.

Trying to take some of the volatility out of it by reducing leagues & Odds, should be ready in time.......although I might change my mind in the next 3 days 😆

@Martin been going nearly two weeks. Chose to start on the 1st of August. Starting Bankroll just £100 with 2-3% Stakes. So far so good. Will post an update early September.

@Justyna ah right fair enough then, I don't like youth teams in general playing in the adult leagues tend to avoid them but that's personal preference.