Saturday's Lay Under 0.5 FHG:

Kilmarnock v Dundee FC
Red Star v Dunkerque
Bayern Munich v B. Monchengladbach
Reims v St Etienne
Le Havre v Marseille

Odds to follow tomorrow...

There's a chance I will continue with the away lays. I'm actually being remarkably consistent in my application. It's just the noise that's coming out of my mouth or from the end of my fingers on the keys which is all over the place.

I'm not surprised. I've seen my bank go from over 5k to around £3400 in the space of weeks and that kind of thing will take it's toll on anyone I'm sure.

But the staking has been reset on away lays and therefore most of the odds won't see heavy liability.

The overs I have to believe my caution shown already is what was needed. After an awful Friday it's been steady as she goes with minimal selections and touch wood no losses since.

Rather late update for April. As decided i have reverted back to paper trading on some of the systems below are the ones i traded in April based on £12.82 liability stakes (Starting bank £1282.32)

System 1 - Lay Home at K/O (5.0-7.0)check h2h
Trades 10
Won 8
Lost 2
S/rate 80%
Lost £4.96

System 2 - Lay Under 2.5 Half 1 goals( Odds 1.30 below)
Trades 6
won 2
lost 4
s/rate 33.33%
Profit £65.71

System 3 - Back Over 1.5 FH Goals (odds 2.42+check h2h)
Trades 8
Won 2
Lost 6
S/rate 25%
Lost £42.66

System 4- Injury Time Goal version B( Ent 90mins, last 5 matches based)
Trades 22
Won 6
Lost 16
S/rate 27.27%
profit £205.12

New trading bank is £1505.53 ( New liabilty stakes based on 1% will be £15.05).
It has slowed down a lot for April not many leagues to trade now the winter season is closing. Have the Egypt, Japanese , Korean and a couple of South American leagues for the next month then the Scandinavian filters should start picking up matches

@Nikki-HALSALL Ok so at that strike rate we need an odds of 1.44 to make money, this is interesting as we aren't that far away from that, anything in the data you have spotted that would help that?

Still finding my way - but because a lot of my testing strats need goals I like the % 0-0 HT & % 0-0 at FT

@Adam Then I will be alive again and can take their inheritance back....

@Nikki-HALSALL said in Winning Edge Teams & XP Tracker & Leaderboard:

This strategy is proving tricky for me, being present to place at 10 mins is not possible as I work full-time so I tried a set and forget at 1.45 to 1.51 odds ish depending on pre-match price but there are a lot of goals scored before 10 mins and a lot that finish 0-0 at half time so..........not quitting but having a cull of leagues.

I am cutting.....

Premier League ENG - I know!!!!!
Mexico Liga Mx
Netherlands Eerste & Eredivisie

These 3 leagues are really affecting the overall success rate and although only 350 matches so it could just be variance they are out.

Turkey Super Lig is close to being cut but will give it more time

I guess in these situations with a small sample it is good to monitor the cut leagues still just in case it was just a bad run so will do that.

I see and I read what you say - better listen to Ryan - but I will share my opinion - you can put Set & Forget with Keep option with 25 ticks above staring price - then you get the optimal price at 15 min mark - if you want 10 min mark I can simulate and see how many ticks the market move - easy - work is not an obstical - just mindset - cheers

@CHRISTOPHER-JAMIESON tagging you incase you have not seen this yet

@Patrik-Mellqvist be interested to see how it performs!

sorry ignore my request as I already have this strategy .

Hi all,
Just watched your late goal after 74 mins video on youtube, any chance of the filter?
Thanks

What is your trading personality?

I made a decision last night!
I feel my comfort zone when having a high strike rate and modest return, and reasonable loss.

10% return and 50% loss give 1 in 5 for break-even.
And the strike ratio is between 85/95/100% overall.

Now to the core of this topic - my majority trading is for no goals.
Cold methods and not hot methods.

That is an key changer for me, because I have higher success with those then the other way around.
So why not turn that into my task and journey to walk when is works for me.

What are the benefits?
Based upon my opinion and experience.

The in-play stats indications are crucial.
As close as you get to match-reading from home.

Where you can estimate slow and low tempo and attacking play.
Where the likelihood and probability tendency for no goals are overwhelming.

Sure, the other way also works with for example,e 15 points with corners and shots on/off target.
But in my book, the other way around is even more effective.
3 shots off-target exit or 1 shot on-target exit.

My successes are the following ...

One scalping method (Thank you BTC)
One 10-20 min strategy (Thank you TTM)
One method from Ben (Thank you UFT)

Other benefits are that you can create LEVERAGE to make more aggressive attacks to boost profits 2x or 5x or even 10x ...

This doesn't mean that I not using other ways.
But this is my core methods that are tailored for my personality optional comfort zone that I feel and encounter succes.

Cheers Patrik

Friday 28/03/25 (Day 38)

Potential selections today come from the following:-

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Hapoel Nof HaGalil (1pm) - this was a LTD and SHG goal trade, ended 1-1 after being 0-0 @ HT so the latter won but the former lost, although it could’ve been traded for a small profit which is something I’m very much looking to do going forward. Volume and liquidity was very poor though so may be a league I’ll be leaving alone in future.

Aalborg v Viborg (6pm) - over 2.5, home lay, lay under under 1.5 and SHG trades all popped up for this one. I obviously didn’t get involved in them all but the home lay and over 2.5 both proved profitable as it ended 0-4.

Red Star v Rodez (7pm) - lay the draw in the first-half and SHG trades came up for this game and although they were both losers (1-1 @ HT and no SHG), there was plenty of opportunity to trade for a good profit in the first half.

MVV Maastricht v Emmen (7pm) - no bet.

Eindhoven v Helmond (7pm) - this came up as a LTD trade and ended 2-2 so a loser if left to run but could easily have taken profit in the second half .

Amstettan v Rapid Wien II (5pm) - no bet.

Cerezo Osaka v Urawa Reds (10am) - lay home trade which came in thanks to a late second half equaliser. 1-1.

Barry v Newtown (7:45pm) - lay the first half draw and BTTS were both successful bets/trades in this game. 2-1.

@Patrik-Mellqvist check the amount of top flight league games taking place this week compared to a "normal" week - it'll all be back to normal at the end of the month.

@ellis-slater here is a template you can use to track it:

Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@Luke-Edward-Walker you could look at high draw at HT % and then low draw at FT %

@Luke-Edward-Walker happens mate! You'll see absolutely everything in this game! As long as you were following a set strategy and stuck to your rules, then there's no reason to shy away from doing it again; it's all about finding something and sticking with it over a long period of time - otherwise you'll never know whether or not it works. Keep at it!

February was a shocking month with all the profits from previous months wiped out. I think for next season flat staking would be the way to go, rather than 2% of the bank each month.

However, that was my challenge, so staking back to 2%

e1237f52-48c5-4840-b325-cace101a5542-image.png

Serie A and Liga Portugal both still in profit

ab01c455-8bf1-4f23-a1d6-33b830d4c926-image.png

56c0925f-709e-4493-ba03-5edf19886a6e-image.png

But the Prem has fallen right off

43df2571-b46f-4f13-abb2-585ee257c9db-image.png

Will see what March brings!

ok thanks martin