@Alex-Rendell just checked again. It's back now.

@Stephen-Hancox did you win

Decent month this month with 67 points profit

fe3d5e3a-e32a-4931-a9b2-0f5b5dad4ce1-image.png

Serie A was -61.01 points down at the beginning of the month so a good recovery to -19.22

Serie B now the best performing league out of the 5, but definitely helping having multiple leagues, as they tend to even each other out, when one has a dip another has a spike!

As ever, each trade is 2% of the months starting bank - so stakes upped to 4.5 (although feeling a bit dubious about this as a few results the wrong way could really dent the profit)

When looking for value it looks like median odds are the ones to assess against currently as opposed to average odds

Link to sheet is here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks again to @Jonathan-McDaid for the original strategy - have started using ChatGPT to start looking for some potential summer leagues to see where this would best work

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Lay under 1.5 providing odds 7.0 or less:

319a12fe-b0bb-40af-8cc7-0ee0b19182b8-image.png

3-0

@Alex-Rendell excellent write up! Following these with interest!

@Tony-Hastie said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

I chucked the back home and back away strategies into the football software to see what they brought up...got this a few times now. Back the draw?😁Screenshot 2025-01-14 132032.png

to be fair you would have made a profit backing both as the winner was 3.0+ odds 😄

Happy new year all, hopefully a profitable 2025 for everyone coming up.
2024 comes to a end a fortunately up again for December results are as follows for December. Based on £12.90 liability stakes

System 1 - Lay home at K/0 5.0-7.0 ( Check h2h)
Trades 28
won 25
lost 3
s/rate 89.28%
Profit £35.35

System 2
Back under 1.5 goals at k/0( h2h based data) 3.75-4.50 odds
Trades 50
Won 12
lost 38
S/rate 24%
Lost £19.00

System 3
Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D ( 3..0-3.55 odds) Check h2h
Trades 20
Won 8
Lost 12
S/rate 40%
Profit £90.40

So my new bank for January is £1,397.13 , new liability stake at 1% of the bank will be £13.97

I have continued testing various other systems , my injury time goal system that i had previously traded but put on hold in November due a large hit in October , made a profit in November but a very small loss in December.
One of the back the draw systems i have tested for the last two months is looking very promising but i need more data before i potential put into place.
Another system i am adding to my portfolio this month will be Backing over 1.5 First Half Goals odds min 2.42 checking h2h results also.
I have tested since April with a total of 114 results, 54 wins ,lost 60, profit would be £234.63 based on £10 test stakes and the 2% commission

@Peter-Adams there aren't any SHG specific stats in the ratings, they tend to cover 90mins

@james-everard Well there have been 5 posts today already, so things are hotting up 🙂 but seriously it would be great to see what people are up to, not to copy them but to learn a few tricks of the trade (pun intended :))

This conclusion is based on my experience and testing.
You might get results other than mine and are free to speak up.

First out ...
SHG "any score line" at 1.4 between 60/64 min mark.
Run several weekends with Fairbot and it did not perform as expected.

Update with the next test ...
Richards SHG at 1.2 Set & Forget

Cheers

@Patrik-Mellqvist nice one how is it going?

That is great input and information.
See the free option works very well.

Cheers

@Patrik-Mellqvist wise words!

@Ryan
@Martin

Hi,

I’m evaluating some methods with Fair Bot. I won’t run anything on weekdays; I’ll focus on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays, from 9 AM to midnight.

I’d like to thank Martin for his video on automation and daily routines, and Ryan for his chat about automating tasks to free up time for other things in life.

I currently have two methods automated and plan to code three more. Scheduling these methods for specific days and times feels right, as there’s more activity on weekends. Running Fair Bot on weekdays seems unnecessary, as there are only occasional opportunities.

Best regards,

@Alex-Rendell hello. Thanks for your reply, I have already tweaked both leagues and odds on all of the strategies except the lay the draw set and forget. The last deep dive I did into the strategies was back on January 1st. I think I will have to have another look into the leagues and odds to see if that improves it. But do it in a way that is not an obvious back fit.

If your entry/exit conditions present themselves multiple times in a match and you're within the boundaries of whatever you've decided to risk on that match then sure.

There's no set "correct" number of trades to place per market, you just need to be re-evaluating as the match progresses based on what's happening in the game and be aware of the increased risk the later it gets due to "dangerous" events making the prices swing wider.

Don't evaluate the next trade based on confidence built in the last one. Evaluate the current conditions on their own merit. Ask yourself whether you'd still be placing that next trade if it was the first trade you were placing for that match.

@Simon-Bates I personally rarely let a bet run, but there's nothing wrong with doing so if you think you have decent value from the bet.

Hedging or partial hedging will remove some or all liability. If you're dripping in your backs then you could drip in your hedge bets as well.

If you want to keep it really simple you could just lay for the exact same stake as you backed, which creates a free bet on that selection (if your selection wins you make a profit, if it doesn't then you lose nothing).

There's no right or wrong answer really, other than ensuring the price is right in the first place, but I wouldn't use the cashout button as you'll never really get a favourable price, as convenient as it is.

Also keep an eye on dangerous match events that could send the price flying if you're betting late in the market.

@Patrik-Mellqvist yeah fit it in how you can, or perhaps more importantly how you would like to. I find you have to make sure you are enjoying it to keep motivation!

Nothing wrong with adding in tennis!

@John-s it's underused as it's overshadowed by the strategy creation tool but it's an excellent bit of kit!