@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Lay Under 1.5/Under 2.5:

01773516-5248-418e-8bd5-d8fa9464dbd0-image.png

If only they could all be like this. 7 goals by the end!

Evening , update for July 26. Still paper trading for another couple of months until i am really confident i have strategies that have real potential. All based on £10 liability stakes and with the 2% commission taken off

System 1- Lay under 2.5 goals for 1st half (1.40 odds below)
Trades 33, Won 9, Lost 24, s/rate 27.27% Profit £120.42
Results since Jan 26- Trades 354, won 60, lost 294, s/rate 16.95% profit £380.06

System 2- Back Home at k/o (odds 3.0-3.50)
July - trades 10, won 2, lost 5 , s/r 20% lost £34.43
total recorded since August 25, Trades 203, won 68,lost 135, s/r 33.50% profit £130.20

System 3- Back 1st half goal on 40mins( if no goal 30-39mins)
July - Trades 13, won 2, lost 11, s/rate 15.38% lost £74.66
Total recorded since Jan 26- Trades 210, won 54, lost 156, s/r 25.71% profit £209.58

System 4- BTTS ON 15MINS ODDS 1.60+
July - Trades 56, won 27,lost 29, s/rate 48.21% Lost £61.37
Total trades since May26- Trades 156, won 84,lost 72, s/rate 53.85% Lost £35.29

System 5- Lay away side if takes lead
July 26- Trades 10, won 5, lost 5, s/rate 50% Lost £14.54
Trades since April 26- Trades 77, won 40, lost 37, s/rate 51.95% Lost £7.32

System 6- BACK 1-1 FT CS ( Check league pos and h2h 20%+)
July 26, Trades 13, won 1, lost 12, s/r 7.69% Lost £63.16
Total trades since Nov 25- Trades 415, won 59, lost 356, s/r 14.22% Profit £154.18

System 7 - Back 1-0 FT CS VERSION Q
July 26- Trades 5 , Won 1, lost 4, s/r 20% Profit £7.09
Total trades since Feb26, Trades 58, won 11,lost 47,s/rate 18.97% profit £237.96

System 8 - Back over 2.5 goals ft version B( 2.0+ odds check h2h 50%plus)
July 26- Trades 24, won 11, lost 13, s/rate 45.83% Profit £9.55
Total trades since jan26- Trades 1083, won 500,lost 583,s/r 46.17% Profit £315.36

System 9 - Back over 1.5 FIRST HALF GOALS ( 2.0+ ODDS)
July 26- Trades 17, won 8, lost 9, s/rate 47.04% profit £36.02
Total trades since March 26- 47, won 23,lost 24, s/r 48.94% profit £101.31

system 10 - Back AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS
July 26, Trades 42, won 2, lost 40,s/r 4.76% Lost £365.70
Total trades since April 152, win 16, lost 136,s/r 10.53% Lost £188.90

System 11- Injury time goal version B( Last 5 games )
July 26- Trades 26, won 5, lost 21, s/rate 19.23% Lost £46.64
Trades since Feb26- Trades 298, won 84, lost 214,s/r 28.19% profit £717.79

System 12- Injury time goal last 10 matches
July 26- Trades 13, won 1,lost 12,s/r 7.69% Lost £82.29
Total trades since Jan25- Trades 285,won 78,lost 207,s/r 27.37% profit £764.34

System 13- BACK OVER 1.5 HALF 2 GOALS ( 2.0+ ODDS CHECK H2H 50%+)
July 26- Trades 5 , won 3, lost 2 .s/rate 60% profit £12.92
Total trades since jan26- Trades 52,won 28,lost 24,s/r 53.85% profit £59.45

System 14- Back the Draw at K/o Version W
July26- Trades 6, won 3, lost 4, s/rate 33.33% profit £4.10
Total trades since Feb26- Trades 132, won 35,lost 97,s/rate 26.51% profit £188.56

System 15- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 (ODDS 3.0+)
July 26- Trades 18,won 6, lost 12, s/rate 33.33% Profit £31.90
Total trades since Jan26- Trades 393, won 124, lost 269 , s/r 31.55% profit £479.81

System 16- BACK THE DRAW FOR THE 1ST HALF ( ODDS 2.0+)
July26- Trades 9, won 6, lost 3, s/rate 66.67% profit £45.46
Total trades since March 26- Trades 68,won 37,lost 31,s/rate 54.41% profit £148.41

System 17- Back over 3.5 goals FT on 15mins if 0-0( odds 3.0+)
July 26- Trades 25, won 7, lost 18, s/rate 28% Profit £9.63
Total trades since June 26- Trades 33, won 10,lost 23,s/rate 30.30% Profit £22.36

System 18- New for July 26- Back 2-1 FT CS VERSION A( CHECK ELO HIGHER HOME)
July26- Trades 10, won 3, lost 7, s/rate 30% profit £147.56

System 19- New for July 26- Back goal for 1st half on 36mins( if no goal 30-35mins) based on lay odds of 1.45
July 26- Trades 65, won 22, lost 43, s/rate 35.87% profit £49.27

System 20 - New July 26- BACK AOS FT HOME AT K/O(CHECK ELO HIGHER) 3.50+ ODDS

July 26- Trades 28, won 5, lost 23, s/rate 17.86% profit £12.06

So plenty of systems over viewing in the hope that i may start trading at the beginning of October maybe.

Also been spending a bit of time of the new football software which i am really liking the look of. Are we going to be able to use both systems or will this one close soon ?

@Adam thanks so much for the reply Adam, congratulations on the stunning new software.

Danish, Czech & Swiss leagues start back this weekend

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

Where:

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@allan-poulsen these are member strategies that have been shared with us over the years, not being tracked manually as it would be impossible to track (thousands of inplay data points would need to be tracked live per week manually), though when we have the next big software update (which isn't far off) it will be possible to run them through and find out.

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Martin Great, thanks

@Alex-Ionică to get 400 selections a month on a strategy can be difficult, I mean how many matches a day are likely to be value for any given strategy? Maybe 5-10? Then you would have to find them all! It's easier to do this around multiple strategies.

@Dan-Fuller I love that you have done this, this is exactly what I have been preaching for a while 2 people can trade the same strategy a different way and/or spot things that make it slightly different.

Theres been a few you might find some more info on this thread https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4890/the-winning-edge-challenge-3-simple-steps/162?_=1759395327476

@Alex-Rendell As I was working on the spreadsheet this morning I noticed the formula for the No. of selections was picking up the SHG column - now amended and posted below.

It was interesting as some of the leagues that are struggling with FHG were 100% on SHG.

Also have removed about 12 leagues

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing

@Richard-Latimer just finally working through the 951 results from the FHG Winning Edge strat so it wasn't my original but will be edited by me - hope that counts.

Trying to take some of the volatility out of it by reducing leagues & Odds, should be ready in time.......although I might change my mind in the next 3 days 😆

@Martin been going nearly two weeks. Chose to start on the 1st of August. Starting Bankroll just £100 with 2-3% Stakes. So far so good. Will post an update early September.