Here are the stats highlights from our software today!

Football - User Guide Here: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/football-trading-stats/

Note that stats software uses home results for home team and away results for away team. League form only.

Terms Glossary:

HT = Half-Time

FT = Full-Time

FHG = First Half Goal

SHG = Second Half Goal

O1.5, O2.5 etc  = Over 1.5, Over 2.5 (usually goals)

U1.5, U2.5 etc  = Under 1.5, Under 2.5 (usually goals)

High ELO difference = Big difference in the ratings of the two teams (Think Liverpool vs Chester)

High action match possible = Could be an end to end game with lots of action

High Goal Expectation = Could be a high scoring game

No-lose streak = Team has not lost in X amount of games

No-win streak = Team has not won in X amount of games

27/07/24 00:00 | Peru - Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Boys:
Away team is on a 4 match losing streak

27/07/24 01:30 | Brazil - Serie B | Ituano vs Vila Nova FC:
Home team is on a 4 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 02:30 | Peru - Liga 1 | U. de Deportes vs Alianza Lima:
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
40% of their match history had a goal in the last 10 mins

27/07/24 11:00 | South Korea - K League 1 | Gwangju FC vs Suwon City:
Away team is on a 3 match winning streak
Away team is on a 3 match winning streak
Away team is on a 3 match no-lose streak
45% of their match history had a goal in the last 10 mins

27/07/24 12:00 | China - Super League | Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang:
Away team is on a 3 match losing streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
85% of their match history had a goal in the last 10 mins

27/07/24 12:35 | China - Super League | Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao West Coast:
Away team is on a 3 match losing streak

27/07/24 13:45 | Poland - Ekstraklasa | Stal Mielec vs GKS Katowice:
Away team is on a 3 match winning streak
Away team is on a 3 match winning streak
Home team is on a 3 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 14:00 | Sweden - Allsvenskan | Norrkoping vs Kalmar:
Only 5% of their match history had a goal in the first 10 mins

27/07/24 15:00 | Denmark - Superliga | Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland:
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 3 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 15:00 | Norway - Eliteserien | K. Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt:
High away Elo (1825)
High away Elo (1825)
High Elo difference (1533 vs 1825)

27/07/24 16:30 | Poland - Ekstraklasa | Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia:
Home team is on a 3 match losing streak
95% of their match history had 2 or more goals

27/07/24 16:30 | Sweden - Allsvenskan | Malmo FF vs Sirius:
High home Elo (1804)
High Elo difference (1804 vs 1600)
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 16:30 | Sweden - Allsvenskan | Goteborg vs Brommapojkarna:
Home team is on a 3 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 17:00 | Switzerland - Super League | Sion vs Lausanne:
Home team is on a 3 match winning streak
Home team is on a 3 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 17:00 | Norway - Eliteserien | Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg:
Away team is on a 3 match losing streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 17:00 | Romania - Liga 1 | Poli Iasi vs Gloria Buzau:
Only 5% of their match history had a goal in the first 10 mins

27/07/24 17:30 | Chile - Primera Division | Copiapo vs Coquimbo:
Away team is on a 3 match winning streak
Away team is on a 3 match winning streak
Away team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 19:00 | Peru - Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano:
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 3 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 19:30 | Switzerland - Super League | Basel vs Lugano:
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 20:00 | Chile - Primera Division | U. Espanola vs Cobresal:
Away team is on a 3 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 20:00 | Romania - Liga 1 | Sepsi vs Din. Bucuresti:
Home team is on a 3 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 21:00 | Brazil - Serie B | Mirassol vs Operario:
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 21:00 | Brazil - Serie B | Coritiba vs Chapecoense-SC:
Only 5% of their match history had a goal in the first 10 mins

27/07/24 21:15 | Peru - Liga 1 | ADT Tarma vs Los Chankas:
Home team is on a 4 match winning streak
Home team is on a 4 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

27/07/24 23:00 | Brazil - Serie A | Palmeiras vs Vitoria:
High Elo difference (1724 vs 1472)
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Away team is on a 3 match losing streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
Only 5% of their match history had a goal in the first 10 mins

27/07/24 23:00 | Brazil - Serie A | Juventude vs Criciuma:
Away team is on a 4 match losing streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 01:30 | Brazil - Serie A | Botafogo RJ vs Cruzeiro:
Home team is on a 4 match winning streak
Home team is on a 4 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 01:30 | Brazil - Serie A | Fortaleza vs Sao Paulo:
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 11:00 | South Korea - K League 1 | Pohang vs Sangju Sangmu:
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 12:35 | China - Super League | Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Rongcheng:
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 4 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 13:00 | Denmark - Superliga | Randers FC vs Viborg:
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 15:00 | Brazil - Serie A | Bragantino vs Fluminense:
Home team is on a 4 match winning streak
Home team is on a 4 match winning streak
Home team is on a 4 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 15:30 | Sweden - Allsvenskan | Elfsborg vs Djurgarden:
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
95% of their match history had 2 or more goals

28/07/24 15:30 | Sweden - Allsvenskan | Hacken vs Vasteras SK:
High Elo difference (1698 vs 1497)
Away team is on a 3 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 15:30 | Switzerland - Super League | Zurich vs Winterthur:
Away team is on a 3 match losing streak

28/07/24 16:00 | Norway - Eliteserien | Tromso vs Kristiansund:
Home team is on a 3 match losing streak

28/07/24 16:00 | Norway - Eliteserien | Odd vs Stromsgodset:
45% of their match history had a goal in the last 10 mins

28/07/24 16:30 | Poland - Ekstraklasa | Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw:
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 3 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 18:15 | Norway - Eliteserien | Viking vs Molde:
Home team is on a 3 match winning streak
Home team is on a 3 match winning streak
Home team is on a 3 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 4 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 19:15 | Poland - Ekstraklasa | Korona Kielce vs Legia:
Away team is on a 3 match winning streak
Away team is on a 3 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 20:00 | Brazil - Serie A | Flamengo RJ vs Atletico GO:
High Elo difference (1701 vs 1467)
Away team is on a 3 match losing streak

28/07/24 20:00 | Chile - Primera Division | Nublense vs U. Catolica:
Home team is on a 3 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 20:00 | Brazil - Serie B | Guarani vs Brusque:
Away team is on a 4 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 20:00 | Romania - Liga 1 | CFR Cluj vs CS U. Craiova:
High home Elo (1804)
Home team is on a 4 match winning streak
Home team is on a 4 match winning streak
Home team is on a 4 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 4 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 22:30 | Brazil - Serie B | CRB vs Santos:
Home team is on a 3 match winning streak
Home team is on a 3 match winning streak
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak
Away team is on a 3 match no-lose streak
Only 5% of their match history had a goal in the first 10 mins

28/07/24 22:30 | Chile - Primera Division | A. Italiano vs U. De Chile:
Home team is on a 3 match losing streak
Away team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

28/07/24 22:30 | Brazil - Serie B | America MG vs Ceara:
Home team is on a 5 match no-lose streak

Thanks,

Martin
Betfair Trading Tutor

@Adam @Martin

Hello Adam and Martin! Which programs would you recommend that provide the best value for money and user-friendliness? By that, I mean the simplicity of programming and finding information and templates for how to get an automated execution running. My instinct tells me that Betfair Bot Manager is superior, but I have also looked at Fairbot and the slightly more expensive Betangle. What do you think would be best? I believe the last two mentioned also contain other trading tools compared to Betfair Bot Manager. All recommendations are welcome. Thanks for your time.

So I am currently looking to test/try out a late goal strategy.
This is my current filter.

c9aba1cc-b1cf-49a9-959d-88c857d02955-image.png

Will most likely tweak it once more leagues are up and running. Just curious what peoples thoughts are on this and if they would change it in any way?
Also would be helpful to know how some people go about trading late goals such as number of shots on target in 2nd half before 70mins etc. I am also thinking of entering half stake around 70mins then other half around 80mins.

Couple more selections to add (inc. the last one as well):

93ca5210-a3ac-4adf-b905-3377c79f4ae2-image.png

Lay all home unless odds less than 1.9.

Added Matt's FHG strategy

@Matt-Wood nice one I will add this to the strategy database

Thanks for your support Matt and Stuart. I should have listened to advice ages ago and wasted lots of money and time.
Advice again for any newbies , paper trade , paper trade and paper trade until you find a system /systems that are profitable. I did this for 3-4 months then started off with a £100 bank bank in December using 1% stakes just £1 liability and built it up from there. Listen to advice from others and not just do your own thing like i was !

@Martin said in Test trading option for Lay O3,5:

@Patrik-Mellqvist is there an inplay angle with these?

Hello @Martin - is my overall feeling after a short sample, but I have compared with the Lay option and made my personal decision to continue with the Under 2.5 goals market as the profits on average and sometimes very high odds give some degree of value compared to the original, that is a simple conclusion after a couple of Set & Forget bets - I find the backing option with correct score and under goal market also being more flexible as I can place them on a pinnacle that allows winning punters.

So I am satisfied and decided to start staking £20 on Betfair after one month, starting Juli and £20 on Pinnacle.
Smarkets is not working as an option as they have a limited amount of leagues compared to the others.

My personal opinion and instinct and the overall feeling is that my solution is a much better solution than the original with a large portion of improvement.
The idea and experiment with a solution for Lay U1.5 but using the correct score and over-goal market did not give expected performance when comparing to Lay O3.5 - the difference in performance is like day and night when looking at the charts and there is no need for a larger sample to see the strength difference in performance in swings and risk/reward ratio.

See for yourself and let the output embrace you 🙂

Skärmbild (239).png

Skärmbild (240).png

@Martin I have another solution for the Lay U1.5 that produces +136 with the same placed bets.
But that approach I will at the moment keep for myself and I will run 10 or 20 to get a feel and estimation observation on the strength in the negative and positive swings to see if I can strengthen the backing option further or skip that idea.

Cheers

@Ryan said in BTC Second Half Goal (Member Filter) Results/Stats, if you like goals!:

@Patrik-Mellqvist This is really interesting, so I am getting this right the odds you are backing this at is 1.24/1.25?

On those leagues with a strike rate of 87.92%?

@Ryan this is the testing blueprint of the statistical results from season 2022/2023 and one among several criteria is that the O2.5 Goals Markets starting price before kick-off should be a minimum of 1.8 - in real life that price will have other values and higher values with some game selection and the result will be higher odds than 1.2+ as my checking with in-play exchange software show with some examples 1.24 but then with around 1.8 O2.5 but if you have 1.97 then the odds for the current half time score line will be higher then 1.24

Gary's SHG Filter gave the hint of 1.2+ and I checked the match and comparing with the strike ratio.

The main idea behind this is that one of my winning core methods will use this set-up for optimal performance of quality trades and not quantity trades.
So by accident, I discovered the price match on the current goal market when the main focus was on finding a solution for my trading method.

So getting the best out of two options.

Cheers

EDIT

I tested this with O2.5 at 1.8 and that all had the next market at 80+ for further investigation.
There is an even more slim and strict filter other than pinpointing the best performance.
Where you create the O2.5 goals to be at higher values and then at Half Time get 1.2+ even higher.
Because the match-up will be closer to even in match odds using the filter 3.5 to 4.2 as the Draw Price.
These two combinations create the very strict and highest odds.
So you need to test and decide, strict or relaxed, if you only will use the Set & Forget option, the trading approach is not affected by this if you don't use the 60/40.
And with other odds criteria there I need for new statistical simulations.

The highlights email is basically a small selection of the stats available in the software and on the ratings page.

So for example if the highlights email says "Only x% of home match history had a goal in the first 10 minutes" and that's the kind of thing you want to look out for, you could create the following filter in the stats software:

0a4f7408-339f-4ffa-bc1d-c8d60fd448ce-image.png

Some of the highlights relate to the ratings page. Some figures will already be highlighted in green or red if they're high / low and you can also use the filters at the bottom of each column:

f7fbaf4b-5380-4a7c-aa7f-53c54b43e86f-image.png

@Ryan amen to that brother!

@Martin said in QUESTION Advance Filter Setting - To Get Estimated Odds With Certain Goal Markets:

@Patrik-Mellqvist probably easiest if I answer your first post then you ask another question after that, or I will get lost trying to follow all of these posts.

To view the current odds of your selections you can see them in the criteria list on your strategy results. So when you click the filter and see the selections it will be listed as Criteria X (numbered based on which number it is in your criteria order when you created the filter).

However these will only be the pre-match odds, they do not track in play.

Thanks, @Martin for the support and I know Adam mentioned this function as you had before on another topic.
But I feel it doesn't do the trick and opportunity for observations to tackle the situation correctly.

So I will trust my instinct this time and I will use the following set-up.

a) Compare with the original settings qualifiers and what vanishes and what stays with the other options.
b) The filter set-up is a process and journey to decide and find the optimal and final setting filter from options.
c) Observation with fine-tuning and tailoring the final and optimal solution criteria and parameters.

I will do this for two SHG existing filters that i know have excellent results in their original shape.
The risk mitigation part of this experiment is that you might drop a certain degree of % in strike ratio and overall performance, but the already high values and performance will probably not affect the final results with such significance that it will make the applied trading strategy bust or fail.

Cheers

@Vince-Kavanagh really interesting results, the thing is as annoying as past three months have been it's still well up overall and no month has been a massive loss. I guess the next couple of months are crucial to hopefully get it trending in the right direction.

I will share something for the community as i can see there is certian amount of views.
There is an optional way or solution for the ELO calulation with 100+ difference including the comback ration of 60+

I been doing some degree of extanded testing where you pick only Home Favorites witht he odds 1,75 or lower.
And where the Underdog score during the first 20 min.

This creates what i call time value and where the majority of games the Favorite make an equalizer.
I got an positive ROI after 300 placed trades.
You have 70 min and the extra added time for first half and second half that is around an minimum of 10+.
That make your Home Favorite almost having an full match to equlaize or 80+ min.

Now after reading Richard's ELO system and watch Martin's video i learn one importan lesson.
To take advantage of the 0-2 siutuation for the underdog where the Home Favorite succed scoring once but maybe not twice and we can get out from the RED with an SCRATCH - that is an importan lesson as this score line is very common when the Underdog is hot you will see more 1-2 score lines then 0-3 score lines.

So i see value in trading this siutution to minimize the RED and increase the overall strike ratio with wins and ties and occasional loses.
Now i will update this topic as i will experiemnt with the options to act when there is 0-2.
As the relay bet is time sensetive and will not always work i want an sure thing as trading option.
In the examples above you can see that the correct score line 1-2 before kick of is around 26 to back.
Maybe this would cut the siutaion to an favorable HEDGE bet with 80/20 ratio and use the implicity of that things can go wrong and then be safe and i not with succesfull trade we take a reduce winning pot that narrow down to maybe 5 or 10% on the cash out amount, just my estimation.

Not sure is this option work - but i will do some simluatons and get back with some pictures.
The other option that i know work to almost full degree is to back the draw price when the score line is 0-2 with the ratio 70/30 and you will get out with an scratch trade, but i feel 30% of the base stake is to much for an hedge bet and feel that 20% would be better, so there is a need to test that and the difference in odds are huge, draw price at 0-2 is around 11 to back and the cs back odds for 1-2 is around 26 to back.

Cheers

@Patrik-Mellqvist according to soccerstats 77% for Singapore not sure on others but google will probably be your best bet

@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS no, just scalping for a tick or two for small profit. For example back 1.20 and lay 1.19.

@Patrik-Mellqvist interesting stuff keep us updated!

@darren-orange I've added it let me know if you don't get any daily emails tomorrow

@Kurtis-Steven-Graham
Hey dude , I've changed alot since the first filter to narrow down too many selections, I'm currently testing and will reveal my finding very soon.

Are you struggling to find selections ?