@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

Another small update. There are so many games in UK leagues at the moment these are changing every couple of days.

Lay Under 1.5:

11b88255-93a6-43ce-8340-db341391b06f-image.png

@james-everard I have been using the stats a lot more to get an idea of first goal times which then drives whether or not I put the full stake on from the start. I usually try to put a half stake on at a sensible time (from the stats) and then set up two quarter stakes to drip in shortly after.

I'm certainly no expert but I got tired of putting the whole stake on at KO only to find that the first goal comes in 20 mins later and I could have got a much better price. It doesn't always work of course but I reckon that I am getting a higher overall average price by drip feeding. The stats are key though - as @martin keeps saying!

Afternoon All, update for December. Unfortunately from a brilliant November , December was a losing month. With the injury time goal it is very much swings and round abouts either a small loss or huge profit. The Back the draw for half time strategy had a 4 monthly loss on a row, so i will go back and amend the filter slightly and paper trade to see if this improves.
The trading bank at the start of December was £2611.77 with 1% liability stakes of £26.11

System 1 - Back the Draw for 1st half (odds 2.0-2.30) check h2h 50% plus
Trades 18
Won 7
Lost 11
S/rate 38.88%
Lost £80.19

System 2- Injury time goal last 5 matches ( enter 90mins laying under goals market 1.30 below)
Trades 38
Won 7
Lost 31
S/Rate 18.42%
Lost £20.01

So the new trading bank has been reduced to £2511.57 , new 1% liability stakes of £25.11.

I have mentioned before, i have been paper trading lots of other systems of which two i am going to start implementing this month .
Firstly backing Home team at k/o odds 3.0-3.50 ,I have been testing for a while i don't have many matches per month but overall i have a recorded data for 66 trades , won 24,lost 42, s/rate 36.36% and based on £10 tests i would be up £107.28.
The other system i have more data on BTTS FOR FT odds 1.80+ Trades 330, won 187, lost 143, s/rate 56.66% profit based on £10 test stakes would be £269.30, although looking at the data i am amending to odds from 1.90+ so fewer trades but more comfortable with as the range 1.80-1.90 is about break even

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@allan-poulsen these are member strategies that have been shared with us over the years, not being tracked manually as it would be impossible to track (thousands of inplay data points would need to be tracked live per week manually), though when we have the next big software update (which isn't far off) it will be possible to run them through and find out.

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Martin Great, thanks

@Alex-Ionică to get 400 selections a month on a strategy can be difficult, I mean how many matches a day are likely to be value for any given strategy? Maybe 5-10? Then you would have to find them all! It's easier to do this around multiple strategies.

@Dan-Fuller I love that you have done this, this is exactly what I have been preaching for a while 2 people can trade the same strategy a different way and/or spot things that make it slightly different.

Theres been a few you might find some more info on this thread https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4890/the-winning-edge-challenge-3-simple-steps/162?_=1759395327476

@Alex-Rendell As I was working on the spreadsheet this morning I noticed the formula for the No. of selections was picking up the SHG column - now amended and posted below.

It was interesting as some of the leagues that are struggling with FHG were 100% on SHG.

Also have removed about 12 leagues

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing

@Richard-Latimer just finally working through the 951 results from the FHG Winning Edge strat so it wasn't my original but will be edited by me - hope that counts.

Trying to take some of the volatility out of it by reducing leagues & Odds, should be ready in time.......although I might change my mind in the next 3 days 😆

@Martin been going nearly two weeks. Chose to start on the 1st of August. Starting Bankroll just £100 with 2-3% Stakes. So far so good. Will post an update early September.

@Justyna ah right fair enough then, I don't like youth teams in general playing in the adult leagues tend to avoid them but that's personal preference.

@sam-ratcliffe sure no problem 🙂 I've done this for you

Finally a winner but too late to make any difference. I am surprised that Football ratings did not produce more winners. This is not the time to look for excuses but to address your mistakes and consider the changes you should make. The obvious problem is how to deal with multiple kick offs at the same time. I will pause for a while and consider this as I still believe there is an opportunity here.

Hi, Cant seem to access the foorball ratings tab on the main dashboard. Get this error message "This page isn’t working
new.betfairtradingcommunity.com redirected you too many times."