Lay under 1.5 results

4c2ce9c3-10a8-482c-9242-daffb844ee16-image.png

Lay under 2.5 results

f9b52bc1-2465-46e6-9b30-116827e7af93-image.png

July going ok so far......

Update for June, i was away for a few days in Kosovo so missed some matches. But considerably less matches on the filters this month, due to be the summer leagues , some of which have been suspended also during the world cup( Swedish , Norwegian and south american leagues, also i find a lot of the european summer leagues don't match my criteria as there is no edge in the odds as they are underpriced. Here is the results for systems still looking promising. All based on £10 liability stakes

System 1 - Lay Under 2.5 goals for the 1st half ( odds under 1.40)
Trades 37, won 7, lost 30, s/r 18.92% Lost £38.44
Total trades to date since Jan 321, won 51, lost 270, s/r 15.89% Profit £259.64

System 2 - Back home at K/o 3.0-3.50 odds
Trades 2, won 1, lost 1 ,s/r 50% profit £11.07
Total trades to date since 193, won 66,lost 127, s/rate 34.20% profit £164.63

System 3- Back 1st half goal on 40mins ( if no goal 30-39mins)
June trades 14, won 3, lost 11, s/r 21.43% lost £11.99
Total trades since Jan- 197,won 52, lost 145,s/r 26.40% profit £284.24

System 4- BTTS ON 15MINS ( ODDS 1.60+)
June trades - 18,won 11,lost 7, s/r 61.11% profit £19.86
Trades since May- Trades 100, won 57, lost 43, s/r 57% profit £26.08

System 5- Lay away if takes lead
June - Trades 1, won 1 , lost 0 , s/rate 100% profit £3.49
Total trades since April 67, won 35, lost 32, s/r 52.24% profit £7.22

System 6- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERSION B ( CHECK LEAGUE POS)
June - Trades 28, won 7,lost 21,s/rate 25% profit £246.68
Total trades since Nov25- Trades 402, won 58, lost 344, s/r 14.43% profit £217.34

System 7- Back 1-0 Ft cs version Q
June trades 4, won 0, lost 4, s/r 0% lost £40.00
Total trades since Feb- Trades 53, won 10,lost 43, s/r 18.87% profit £230.92

System 8- Back over 2.5 goals FT version B- (2.0 odds + check h2h)
June Trades 4, won 0,lost 4, s/r 0% lost £40.00
Total trades since Jan26- trades 1059, won 489,lost 570, s/r 46.18% profit £305.81

System 9- Back over 1.5 Half 2 goals ( 2.0+ odds check h2h)
June 26- trades 4,won 2,lost 2, s/rate 50% profit £0.77p
Total trades since Jan26, trades 47, won 25,lost 22, s/rate 53.19% profit £46.53

System 10- Back AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS
June - trades 19, won 3, lost 16, s/rate 15.79% Lost £17.90
Total trades since April- Trades 110, won 14, lost 96, s/rate 12.73% profit £176.80

System 11- Injury Time goal version B ( last 5)
June trades - 20, won 8, lost 12, s/rate 40% profit £141.38
Total trades since Feb- 272, won 79, lost 193 s/r 29.04% profit £764.43

System 12 - Injury Time goal last 10 matches
June - trades 4, won 1 , lost 3 , s/rate 25% profit £7.71
Total trades since Jan25- 272, won 77, lost 195 s/r 28.31% profit £846.63

System 13- Back Over 1.5 FH goals ( odds 2.0+)
June trades 7, won 4, lost 3 , s/rate 57.14% profit £24.68
Total trades since March - 30, won 15, lost 15, s/rate 50% profit £65.29

System 14- Back Draw at K/o version W
June 26- trades 9, won 3, lost 6 , s/rate 33.33% profit £14.48
Total trades since Feb- 126, won 33, lost 93, s/rate 26.19% profit £184.46

System 15- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
June - trades 18, won 5, lost 13, s/rate 27.78% profit £10.63
Total trades since Jan- trades 375, won 118, lost 257, s/rate 31.47% profit £447.91

System 16- Back Draw for 1st half ( 2.0+ odds )
June - trades 3, won 3, lost 0 , s/rate 100% profit £32.73
Total trades since March- 59, won 31,lost 28, s/rate 52.54% profit £102.97

System 17 - New back over 3.5 goals ft on 15mins if odds 3.0+ and no goal
June - trades 8, won 3, lost 5 , s/rate 37.50% profit £12,23

Looking at the outrights this morning. Think it could be a good time to back Belgium.

Think they have a very good chance of getting to the last 16 where they will probably play the US for a place in the quarters. At the current form they lose that game. But think the current price of 50s could easily could down to 25-30 region by then for a decent trade out.

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

Where:

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@allan-poulsen these are member strategies that have been shared with us over the years, not being tracked manually as it would be impossible to track (thousands of inplay data points would need to be tracked live per week manually), though when we have the next big software update (which isn't far off) it will be possible to run them through and find out.

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Martin Great, thanks

@Alex-Ionică to get 400 selections a month on a strategy can be difficult, I mean how many matches a day are likely to be value for any given strategy? Maybe 5-10? Then you would have to find them all! It's easier to do this around multiple strategies.

@Dan-Fuller I love that you have done this, this is exactly what I have been preaching for a while 2 people can trade the same strategy a different way and/or spot things that make it slightly different.

Theres been a few you might find some more info on this thread https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4890/the-winning-edge-challenge-3-simple-steps/162?_=1759395327476

@Alex-Rendell As I was working on the spreadsheet this morning I noticed the formula for the No. of selections was picking up the SHG column - now amended and posted below.

It was interesting as some of the leagues that are struggling with FHG were 100% on SHG.

Also have removed about 12 leagues

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing

@Richard-Latimer just finally working through the 951 results from the FHG Winning Edge strat so it wasn't my original but will be edited by me - hope that counts.

Trying to take some of the volatility out of it by reducing leagues & Odds, should be ready in time.......although I might change my mind in the next 3 days 😆

@Martin been going nearly two weeks. Chose to start on the 1st of August. Starting Bankroll just £100 with 2-3% Stakes. So far so good. Will post an update early September.

@Justyna ah right fair enough then, I don't like youth teams in general playing in the adult leagues tend to avoid them but that's personal preference.