@richard-etherington so what's the rationale for the over 4.5 and 5.5 markets? What does your long term data suggest is the most profitable, letting them run or to exit?

@giorgio depends on whether I am watching the event or not when trading. If it's pre-planned trading I can do lots markets in a day, if I'm watching in play then 3-4 matches is all I could fathom!

1/6/22

I'm going to stop putting the excluded leagues here unless anyone is monitoring them and wants to keep seeing them?

Today's Selections: (excluded leagues highlighted in red.)

0_1656392667691_fd4918df-2921-4143-b493-2bb51af59dae-image.png

Yesterday's Results: (excluded leagues highlighted in red.)

0_1656392637215_e1860423-eb30-44e0-bd83-484d0eb32994-image.png

At KO check odds are between 1.3 and 1.45 inclusive.
Place an order to back over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.5
This is NOT a finished strategy so please run your own tests before risking any money on these selections.

Summer Leagues excluded list: Argentina, Ecuador, Faroe Islands, Finland, South Korea, Uraguay, Norway and Sweden.

@william-jackson Hi William and welcome to the community. In my experience it depends on when you put the stakes in, but I'd say if no goals after 70 minutes just get out as the price starts to rapidly decrease from then due to time decay. If starting on small stakes you will make it up as the strategy claims 80% strike rate, so you'll make it up.

Kind Regards

Jason

Yep this is a cracking market to use! I hope the video helps!

0_1654286857501_filter-settings (10).txt

@gregory-mcgrath I'm guessing they don't have anyone to cover the game and manage the market, unmanaged markets don't get liquidity and won't earn them enough to make it worthwhile

@kevin-pepper Thanks a million Kevin ! I am going to try that at this moment! 🙂

@Martin Wish somebody had told Villa that when they beat Liverpool 7-2.

You 100% have a point, we also have to take into account how many games these guys play.

If you are 4-0 up what's the point of risking Salah for another 30 mins?

@giorgio Thank you!

I don't use a scores app but I put my own notes on Evernote - Syncs across all devices as well so I can just have a quick check on them.

Notion is another good one.

@jozef-malik any unquoted score line

Hi
What exactly do you want to do? Which market, criteria and bet to be placed? I've created rules in Fairbot so can send you some examples if I have a better idea what you're trying to do.
Cheers
Kevin

@connor-garland you have already added a couple of bits so see how it goes, no need to refine unless it's something obvious 🙂

@bence-korbuly yep it's being tested here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=1511053721

not finding it that great to be honest at the moment.

Madness yesterday trying to oversee French Chefs and Waiters while squeezing in some trades - again my intention being to update results while in England (fly back early tomorrow).

Couple of thoughts which are leading me down my analysis route - league positions - for my newer filters I'm going to start adding them I think to record against data, a mixture of theories which tend to lead me away from certain trades.. two teams close to each other in the table in midtable leads to unpredictability ? Top versus bottom (especially when Top are away) = park the bus and slow start ? Two teams near the top and close in the league game can be tight etc etc but need//want to test these theories to see if there's anything that they can add to my decision making.

Next one is the discipline of reviewing the last few games results just to check whether an individual result may have skewed stats .. a six nil for example in one match. Equally I'm increasingly put off by one or more recent nil nils for either team. I seem to be finding more and more reasons to avoid trades which ultimately whilst nerve wracking is probably a good thing.

Todays list - which will be subject to final analysis is :

0_1650275628535_Screenshot 2022-04-18 at 10.16.27.png

A few concerns over team form and league positions and on the only 01.5 trade the level is a concern. Need to spend time restricting leagues.

@david-pickett Thanks David

@ben-long As it's been mentioned, I think everyone here has gone through the same struggle.

It's always good to take some time off to yourself for a couple of days to get the right mindset. As you've already said, just looking at it the following morning you have a new perspective. Think quality over quantity! Learning to trade is hard enough in itself so don't add more pressure by feeling you need to do something every day or straying from what you know is right.

Interesting topic.
One thing i have mentioned in past couple of weeks is the possibility of going to a few domestic limited over games this season and maybe doing a bit of 'courtsiding'. Nobody responded to my comment, which led me to investigate via the Internet, and found that it is NOT illegal in UK to do so.
So, my thought is ... 1) Batter skies the ball in the air towards, say, fine leg, where there is a fielder - this may take 2/3 secs to get caught - if you were to press the Lay/Back button at the 1 second mark, then you will likely have a 1-2 sec advantage over the Betfair delay.
Does this sound feasible? or has anybody ever done this?

@martin said in Data Analysis - League/Odds Deep Dive:

@lee-leadbetter nice one! how many selections so far?

387, probably wont be many selections before end of march now with International break.

Plan is to analyse the league by league remove any poor ones, however i will still keep them on a back sheet to continue to monitor incase they pick up.