I've gained so much from all you good people that I thought it was time to give something back and what better time to do it than now.
This is a LTD pre match set and forget, with away teams of odds 2 or less. It is very league specific. I've collected data on it going back to 2013. It has a degree of variance, but it is long term profitable. I've carried out a t-test and the results are profitable long term.
The table and graph in the spreadsheet show the monthly profit (around 6 pts), yield and p value (essentially a less than 1/10,000 probability that these results are a fluke).
There are a tonne of ways to modify this:
- Check team news
- Check motivation
- LTD at HT if drawing to get better odds
- Cash out at 80 mins to avoid late goals, if you are so inclined.
The odds on the spreadsheet are from bet365 maximum odds, which may be lower than those on betfair, so I usually queue my lay bets a few ticks below.
Even without doing any of those the strategy is profitable as can be seen from the spreadsheet.
Leagues: Ger. Bundesliga I
Denmark Division 1
France: Ligue 1
France: Ligue 2
Italy: Serie A
Italy: Serie B
Israel: Ligat ha'Al
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Russia: Premier League
Serbia: Super Liga
Slovakia: Fortuna Liga
Tur. Süper Lig
UEFA Europa League (a gold mine)
Ireland Premier League
Any questions, feel free to ask.0_1608739475054_LTDweakhomessummer and winter 2.xlsx