My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Lay U1.5 - Weds 19.5.21
6.00 Porto v Belenenses - Goal too early
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Lay U1.5 - Weds 19.5.21
6.00 Porto v Belenenses
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Lay U1.5 - Tuesday 18.5.21
Result
6.00 Man Utd v Fulham 1-1
Still small stakes
0.98 points
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Lay U1.5 - Tuesday 18.5.21
6.00 Man Utd v Fulham
Still small stakes
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@steve-sandell good run so far!
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Lay U1.5 - Monday 17.5.21
Result
5.30 Malmo v Kalmar 2-0 at HT
Small stakes again but ticking along nicely with these
0.98 points
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Lay U1.5 - Monday 17.5.21
5.30 Malmo v Kalmar
Small stakes again but ticking along nicely with these
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Lay U1.5 - Sunday 16.5.21
Results
1.30 Az Alkmaar v Heracles 5-0
1.30 Feyenoord v Waalwijk 3-0
2.00 Valerenga v Kristiansund 1-2
2.00 Viking v Tromso 0-1
4.30 Lech Poznan v Gornik Zabrze 1-1
5.30 Barcelona v Celta Vigo - Goal too early
5.30 Sociedad v Valladolid 4-1
7.00 Molde v Brann 4-0
7.45 Mallorca v Alcorcon 2-0 by 54mins
8.00 Marseille v Angers 2-0 by 48mins
8.00 PSG v Reims - Goal too earlyAgain small stakes for now. Starting odds not great on some of these. Will see what happens
4.84 points
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Lay U1.5 - Sunday 16.5.21
1.30 Az Alkmaar v Heracles
1.30 Feyenoord v Waalwijk
2.00 Valerenga v Kristiansund
2.00 Viking v Tromso
4.30 Lech Poznan v Gornik Zabrze
5.30 Barcelona v Celta Vigo
5.30 Sociedad v Valladolid
7.00 Molde v Brann
7.45 Mallorca v Alcorcon
8.00 Marseille v Angers
8.00 PSG v ReimsAgain small stakes for now. Starting odds not great on some of these. Will see what happens
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@steve-sandell that’s great! Well done
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Been working on a new strat for this Lay u1.5 . Odds no bigger than 5. Will have to wait in play for some of these
Small stakes to see how it works out
2.30 Leverkusen v Union Berlin - KO odds 4.4 Matched at 4.0 Result 1-1
2.30 Mgladbach v Stuttgart - KO odds 8.8 Matched at 4.0 Result 1-2
6.00 Benfica v Sporting Lisbon - KO odds 3.9 Matched at 3.75 Result 4-3
6.00 New York City v Toronto - KO odds 6.4 Matched at 4.0 Result 1-1
6.30 Galatasaray v Yeni Malatyaspor KO odds 17.0 Matched at 4.5 Result 3-1
6.30 Trabzonspor v Genclerbirligi KO odds 7.8 Matched at 4.0 Result 2-1
7.30 Basel v Zurich - Goal too early
7.30 Young Boys v Luzern - Goal too early
Midnight Atlanta v Montreal (this could be a O2.5 as well) KO odds 5.5 Matched at 4.0 Result 1-02.88 points for Saturday 15.5.21
Not bad for a first go at this -
Been working on a new strat for this Lay u1.5 . Odds no bigger than 5. Will have to wait in play for some of these
Small stakes to see how it works out
2.30 Leverkusen v Union Berlin
2.30 Mgladbach v Stuttgart
6.00 Benfica v Sporting Lisbon
6.00 New York City v Toronto
6.30 Galatasaray v Yeni Malatyaspor
6.30 Trabzonspor v Genclerbirligi
7.30 Basel v Zurich
7.30 Young Boys v Luzern
Midnight Atlanta v Montreal (this could be a O2.5 as well) -
@darri thanks mate good info
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@steve-sandell we discussed this a little on the football thread. Heres the main thing, if you have a legit edge on the market based on your tracking and it continues to be one then the more we get the better. If you continue to trade that day and then lose 2 games in a row after you thought about stopping how badly will that affect you mentally? The reverse if you have 2 more games which were just as solid planned trades as the first 4 then thats points/£ gone because you were scared of losing. See how its all about being mentally sound and consistent. It honestly just depends what version of that above example you are.
I look at my day and plan trades around it. If a trade is on the list and i know ill have time to trade it i will trade it if all the right things align with inplay and odds etc.
Strategies have cycles of variance. Meaning sometimes its a rather good patch of games and sometime terrible. Im full time doing this and i still get those. The only thing i do different now than before, when reds happen i dont care its all part of it. Iv a tried and tested strategy that will long term eat up that red run.
Some people set targets for a day, like a max loss or max win i think thats more dangerous than just being flexible and trading the games you want. Lets say we set a target of winning 3 games those then = 2 points profit/2% of bank gained. Next day we lose 3% and then the day after we lose 3% again thats then you looking to to have to have 2 winning to break even now and 3 winning days to get back to profit. Being so strict with trading in terms of targets halts progress. Be strict with strategies but not with targets. They play on emotions, as traders we try get rid of emotions and opinions. But imagine within those 3 days above we could have actually made 3% more as we actually identified 3 really good games, we had plenty time during day to trade it but we were scared because it might not work. Also setting targets means we then start forcing it, some games we have on our watchlists are at times 50/50 and if they are not 100% a yes dont trade them, but setting targets actually might mean you then go i need this so ill enter.
Trade with confidence that your strategy works. If it works long term then forget how many trades per day/week/month your doing and just let it run. Trade around your day to day schedule. Both of these things will help mentally and make you not care as much about winners/losers and day to day p/l. Its all about long term p/l. Easy to say but there really is so secret sauce its just allow it to run its course. You have an edge get as many games as you can manage on. Imagine having a business and you just go nah too much profit today, tell all clients that day nah decided i dont want your money anymore. Try think of this as a side business, it changed my mindset heaps. If this can be a passive income when all your doing is logging on to place a trade the better this will become for you. Dont think about how many you have won or lost that day/week just keep looking at is this game/trade right for me if yes then trade it. Just 100% make sure your trading around your lifestyle, dont let all these things consume.
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@steve-sandell i dont know really the know answer but i suppose it depends on the games you were had down still to trade you think you got value in i suppose
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@steve-sandell
Personally I have a set max loss and max profit limit for a day, stop if either are hit. It is a tough one though. -
Question that i always dont know the answer too and maybe there isnt a correct answer. Tonight i have 4 out of 4, do i stop and say its been a great night or carry on with my selections ???????
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@steve-sandell brilliant stuff keep up the good work! look forward to watching your development!
