@martin said in Data Analysis - League/Odds Deep Dive:

@lee-leadbetter nice one! how many selections so far?

387, probably wont be many selections before end of march now with International break.

Plan is to analyse the league by league remove any poor ones, however i will still keep them on a back sheet to continue to monitor incase they pick up.

@Martin Maybe I'm losing it. I was sure they wre for today and all had a zero in the ID. Re-running the filters now all show no games for today. Maybe I need a rest day!

@lee-woodman very good point

@frederik-hansen said in Automation and multiple strategies for one game:

I see your point but if each strategy is suppose to be profitable then that should all even out right? Some games you loose double up and others times you win double up. With bankroll management it should not be a problem right?
Or am I missing something else?

This is correct but your variance will be big, so be prepared for that !

@simji said in Lay The Draw First Half Only:

Have you tried using O2.5 market? If your looking to get out at HT the loss might not be as high. Plus it gives you options to stay in for that second goal without the worry about draw taking red

I haven’t no, but the reason being is that goal markets are more volatile in terms of if there is no goal, the odds drift out more quickly that the draw odds if there is no goal. The higher the overs goal market, the further it will drift out if there is no goal. Draw markets don’t drift as quickly in comparison.

With the O2.5G if the first goal doesn’t come until the end of the first half, if you’re single staking from kick off i expect that’s not going result in a great profit. I have dabbled with all markets using small stakes at times, but at a guess i think the market may just return the to around your entry price for a scratch, maybe even leave you in the red still.

If you got an early goal then you’d definitely be in profit as you definitely would with 2 goals. But we’d be relaying on either of those events happening for each selection. A split stake approach on O2.5G entering at KO and again on 20-30 mins could work nicely though and then exit when there is a goal.

With laying the draw on match odds and exiting at HT, we are mainly relying on one event taking place - there being a team in the lead by HT which keeps it simple, the later the goal comes, the better. At the same time we’re also minimising losses on losing trades which I’ve personally found to be a real Achilles heel.

If its a draw at HT we shouldn’t be losing heavy proportions of stake as the odds wont have come in too much because there is still the second half for that one event to happen and invariably can recover that loss with 1 to 2 winning trades.

Another horrible day for FHGs... I am seriously considering returning to testing and ceasing live trading with them.

No issues with the SHGs again however.

Numbers will be confirmed soon once I've populated my results sheet.

@martin said in Tomasz Over 1.5 Goals Set & Forget:

m te

thanks guys. Not aproblem.

@matt-wood said in New Strategy:

@martin said in New Strategy:

@lee-woodman is this LTD first half or you place at HT?

Looking good! I'm thinking of creating a Set and Forget project we can all work on as am doing so much work on Set and Forget at the moment

Id also happily get involved with anything you might be proposing. I'm still learning though, but more than happy to do donkey work 🙂

Same applies for me

@paul-foster said in The Over 1.5 Goals Strategy (Ryan´s Split Stake):

Quick breakdown of Ryan's Split Stake from Nov-21. There have been:

111 matches on filter (excluding postponed matches)
58 goal scored before 30-mins
53 0-0 at 30-min
43 winning trades
10 losing trades
81.13% strike rate

43 x 0.25= 10.75
10 x 0.662= 6.62

So 4.13 point up

P

Awesome thanks for this!

@john-folan said in Over 1.5 split stake . What after 70 min?:

Tired legs and the right substitutes which are normally made after 65 minutes.

Good point well presented

@ryan said in Filters Advice, Please ; ):

@dave-hayes That's what we are here for

Exactly that, and from today I am back trading with a renewed confidence, having identified my 'weak point'

When you have a heavy hit, it makes you analyse and re focus, certainly understanding the filter was a massive plus for me, together with the advice given.

I think I responded to this via email but to reiterate for anyone else who may see this: You're right, we only evaluate the stats based on home for home and away for away. This is because it has such an impact on performance etc and there's no way to change it at the mo.

@john-folan said in Automation Question from a Beginner:

@andrew-camp again I’ve not used Bet Angel for a while. I like bfbotmanager but from what I remember that will place your bets at 1.85 regardless of what the odds are at the time. Then they will just sit there u too matched

Aye this simple fact finally occurred to me too. Sometimes I struggle to tie my own shoelaces.

@dave-hayes good to hear it is sorted!

@chris-king said in Indian Super League:

Thanks for this thread. I have traded matches on this league in the past and watched them on Bet365 with English commentary. It all seems pretty legit considering how many matches get suspended at kick off for the entire duration.
I’ve had 3 on my test filter/s recently and all have been suspended so could not test them.
In my personal experience whenever I ask Betfair chat ‘Why?’ I only ever get told ‘it’s something the bookmakers are dealing with’ or similar, and never a clear answer or reason.

No probs, as I was saying earlier it was good to get another opinion on this. I never went as far as contacting Betfair directly. I hate dealing with anything on Live Chat, and any of my previous dealings of dealing with any live chat in this industry can be at times like talking to the wall so I usually never bother unless its affecting my pocket directly. I get a laugh out of them though sometimes especially with my Matched Betting accounts, one week they are giving me Free Bets via live chat when I have queried an offer they had as I am a "LOYAL CUSTOMER" and the next week I am gubbed. Gotta love that.Though its interesting what their response was though.

@mathew-gates I just record results manually myself

@Ryan Yes the answer was perfect thank you

@dave-hayes @darri has probably forgotten more than I’ll ever know about trading his blog is essential reading I’ve learnt a lot from it and I’m not the only one

@johnnys it may be best with these to post either in the football thread or create your own thread for selections (you can use different sports for that) makes it easier for us to get notified then.

@dave-hayes top man, I’ll pick the email up and we can get cracking.