@connor-garland you have already added a couple of bits so see how it goes, no need to refine unless it's something obvious 🙂

@bence-korbuly yep it's being tested here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=1511053721

not finding it that great to be honest at the moment.

Madness yesterday trying to oversee French Chefs and Waiters while squeezing in some trades - again my intention being to update results while in England (fly back early tomorrow).

Couple of thoughts which are leading me down my analysis route - league positions - for my newer filters I'm going to start adding them I think to record against data, a mixture of theories which tend to lead me away from certain trades.. two teams close to each other in the table in midtable leads to unpredictability ? Top versus bottom (especially when Top are away) = park the bus and slow start ? Two teams near the top and close in the league game can be tight etc etc but need//want to test these theories to see if there's anything that they can add to my decision making.

Next one is the discipline of reviewing the last few games results just to check whether an individual result may have skewed stats .. a six nil for example in one match. Equally I'm increasingly put off by one or more recent nil nils for either team. I seem to be finding more and more reasons to avoid trades which ultimately whilst nerve wracking is probably a good thing.

Todays list - which will be subject to final analysis is :

0_1650275628535_Screenshot 2022-04-18 at 10.16.27.png

A few concerns over team form and league positions and on the only 01.5 trade the level is a concern. Need to spend time restricting leagues.

@david-pickett Thanks David

@ben-long As it's been mentioned, I think everyone here has gone through the same struggle.

It's always good to take some time off to yourself for a couple of days to get the right mindset. As you've already said, just looking at it the following morning you have a new perspective. Think quality over quantity! Learning to trade is hard enough in itself so don't add more pressure by feeling you need to do something every day or straying from what you know is right.

Interesting topic.
One thing i have mentioned in past couple of weeks is the possibility of going to a few domestic limited over games this season and maybe doing a bit of 'courtsiding'. Nobody responded to my comment, which led me to investigate via the Internet, and found that it is NOT illegal in UK to do so.
So, my thought is ... 1) Batter skies the ball in the air towards, say, fine leg, where there is a fielder - this may take 2/3 secs to get caught - if you were to press the Lay/Back button at the 1 second mark, then you will likely have a 1-2 sec advantage over the Betfair delay.
Does this sound feasible? or has anybody ever done this?

@martin said in Data Analysis - League/Odds Deep Dive:

@lee-leadbetter nice one! how many selections so far?

387, probably wont be many selections before end of march now with International break.

Plan is to analyse the league by league remove any poor ones, however i will still keep them on a back sheet to continue to monitor incase they pick up.

@Martin Maybe I'm losing it. I was sure they wre for today and all had a zero in the ID. Re-running the filters now all show no games for today. Maybe I need a rest day!

@lee-woodman very good point

@frederik-hansen said in Automation and multiple strategies for one game:

I see your point but if each strategy is suppose to be profitable then that should all even out right? Some games you loose double up and others times you win double up. With bankroll management it should not be a problem right?
Or am I missing something else?

This is correct but your variance will be big, so be prepared for that !

@simji said in Lay The Draw First Half Only:

Have you tried using O2.5 market? If your looking to get out at HT the loss might not be as high. Plus it gives you options to stay in for that second goal without the worry about draw taking red

I haven’t no, but the reason being is that goal markets are more volatile in terms of if there is no goal, the odds drift out more quickly that the draw odds if there is no goal. The higher the overs goal market, the further it will drift out if there is no goal. Draw markets don’t drift as quickly in comparison.

With the O2.5G if the first goal doesn’t come until the end of the first half, if you’re single staking from kick off i expect that’s not going result in a great profit. I have dabbled with all markets using small stakes at times, but at a guess i think the market may just return the to around your entry price for a scratch, maybe even leave you in the red still.

If you got an early goal then you’d definitely be in profit as you definitely would with 2 goals. But we’d be relaying on either of those events happening for each selection. A split stake approach on O2.5G entering at KO and again on 20-30 mins could work nicely though and then exit when there is a goal.

With laying the draw on match odds and exiting at HT, we are mainly relying on one event taking place - there being a team in the lead by HT which keeps it simple, the later the goal comes, the better. At the same time we’re also minimising losses on losing trades which I’ve personally found to be a real Achilles heel.

If its a draw at HT we shouldn’t be losing heavy proportions of stake as the odds wont have come in too much because there is still the second half for that one event to happen and invariably can recover that loss with 1 to 2 winning trades.

Another horrible day for FHGs... I am seriously considering returning to testing and ceasing live trading with them.

No issues with the SHGs again however.

Numbers will be confirmed soon once I've populated my results sheet.

@martin said in Tomasz Over 1.5 Goals Set & Forget:

m te

thanks guys. Not aproblem.

@matt-wood said in New Strategy:

@martin said in New Strategy:

@lee-woodman is this LTD first half or you place at HT?

Looking good! I'm thinking of creating a Set and Forget project we can all work on as am doing so much work on Set and Forget at the moment

Id also happily get involved with anything you might be proposing. I'm still learning though, but more than happy to do donkey work 🙂

Same applies for me

@paul-foster said in The Over 1.5 Goals Strategy (Ryan´s Split Stake):

Quick breakdown of Ryan's Split Stake from Nov-21. There have been:

111 matches on filter (excluding postponed matches)
58 goal scored before 30-mins
53 0-0 at 30-min
43 winning trades
10 losing trades
81.13% strike rate

43 x 0.25= 10.75
10 x 0.662= 6.62

So 4.13 point up

P

Awesome thanks for this!

@john-folan said in Over 1.5 split stake . What after 70 min?:

Tired legs and the right substitutes which are normally made after 65 minutes.

Good point well presented

@ryan said in Filters Advice, Please ; ):

@dave-hayes That's what we are here for

Exactly that, and from today I am back trading with a renewed confidence, having identified my 'weak point'

When you have a heavy hit, it makes you analyse and re focus, certainly understanding the filter was a massive plus for me, together with the advice given.

I think I responded to this via email but to reiterate for anyone else who may see this: You're right, we only evaluate the stats based on home for home and away for away. This is because it has such an impact on performance etc and there's no way to change it at the mo.

@john-folan said in Automation Question from a Beginner:

@andrew-camp again I’ve not used Bet Angel for a while. I like bfbotmanager but from what I remember that will place your bets at 1.85 regardless of what the odds are at the time. Then they will just sit there u too matched

Aye this simple fact finally occurred to me too. Sometimes I struggle to tie my own shoelaces.

@dave-hayes good to hear it is sorted!