Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    20 Topics
    6k Posts

    Today I will show what I consider a good foundation of estimations or a raw sketch of parameters or criteria considered before the trading opportunity.

    Let's say the strategy is as follows

    I want a favorite with odds of 1.5 and below and they won more matches than underdog.

    I want the ranking table positions to be top to middle top to bottom or middle to bottom and no other ranking positions.

    The favorite won 60% out of 10 previous and the underdog won 70% out of 10 earlier on the same surface and would not qualify.
    However, a 70% win ratio for the favorite and a 30% or less win ratio for the underdog would give the green light for deeper analyses.

    Now we could look into previous games' break points and comeback ratios with the model mentioned above for each game.

    Here we can compare to soccer with no goals at the 70-minute mark to make Time Decay Value in Tennis Match and Hedge for a TIE with no loss.

    I just sum it up like that and wish all the best as I have no interest in teaching when there is no interest in this topic.
    I will just make the winning model and post the results of my winning trades.

    Simple as that, Smile ...

    Further, if you build an algorithm ... consider the following ...
    Tennis Prediction Algorithm

    Skills
    Head to Head
    Rating and countries
    Current form
    Tiredness and retiring
    Tournament

    Upon this probability calculation is made

    The analysis is split into Three parts

    Three Periods

    In the first interval, all matches played in the last 365 Days
    The second interval, 730 Days excluding the 365
    In the third interval, all matches during the career excluding

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    @Fraser-cord West coast of Scotland here(the mighty 'Shire) Dont tend to get a lot of snow normally, being coastal, especially this early. Kids are happy though😁

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    71 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Patrik-Mellqvist ok so you have completely different filters that is why the selections you expect are not showing.

    'H2 over 0.5' means over 0.5 in the second half (either team in the match could score)
    'Scored' means the specific team would have to have scored, not either team in the match, so much less chance a team scores 60% of the time, than either team scores 20%.

    You need to use the same metric for both filters if you want to get the matches pop up on both. So for example you can choose 'Home' 'Scored in H2' rather than 'H2 over 0.5'.

    Hope that makes sense.

  • Our daily pro picks

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    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    199 Topics
    369 Posts

    @Jonathan-McDaid love it cheers!

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    45 Topics
    855 Posts

    @Martin Thanks Martin for posting this for us out there who don’t know spreadsheets too well πŸ‘

  • 100 Topics
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    Just watched a film called 'Aftersun'.

    Real slow burner as father takes his 11yr old daughter on holiday. Alot is video camera footage as the little girl now 20yrs older looks back. Some is her memories.

    It's incredibly moving and very sad but I won't say too much more.

  • This topic is deleted!

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  • lay the draw half time

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    668 Views

    going to do the same and lay at a max of 3.0 for a 10/10 trade and bellow 3.0 for 9/10 and 8/10 trades and see how that works, what i found was i was missing most quality trades waiting for the price to reach 2.68, thanks for your help buddy and best of luck

  • dont know what to do.

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    Just grab a piece of paper and then think about everything that has to happen for your trade to come good write that underneath, you could start with @Keith-Anderson filter.

  • 1 Votes
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    This is where a plan works so well, especially if your trading is at HT.

    Jump in BTC see forum, get the stats for your selections.

    Add them to an app with alerts
    Get the selections on evernote (others are available)

    Alert comes in check it, great 0-0HT right off we go, place the LTD - alert goal trade out.

    If using stop losses then I just use the alarm function on my phone set it for the duration of the trade.

  • "The Good Day" LTD system

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    @denis-caunce yeah Im in πŸ˜ƒ

  • Who to follow on Twitter

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    @dave-jessop said in Who to follow on Twitter:

    Hey guys - where can I see a list of those I've followed on Twatter? - I followed someone a couple of weeks ago and my history only goes back to the 28th

    Should be on your profile under following

  • US Sports Trading Thread

    1 Votes
    9 Posts
    644 Views

    Atlanta could very well be a false favourite tonight against Washington who are a home dog. There’s not much in it The Nats are 2.02 and the Braves are 1.97. However Washington are 38-18 over their last 56 matches and are now only 4.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. As it stands Washington would be hosting the NL Wildcard game. Atlanta is 16-35 in their last 51 in Washington. The Nats are also 20-6 in their last 26 matches against NL East teams. I’m going to be getting on the Nats and looking to close if I can lock in a profit.

  • Small Wins - Weekly Thread

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    @ken-paine YES!! This is great buddy, I always think take small consistent profits? OR one big one then lose it and hate the next X months trading?

    From small acorns grow huge trees. The only things that change through the stakes are you, markets are mechanical they move because of X,Y & Z. Doesn't change too much, handle the smaller stakes you'll move up and handle the bigger ones.

  • Trading Beliefs

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    Cheers, la. Will do!

  • Tech help

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    @craig-brown Refurbished generally means one of two things in terms of technology products. Either its just had its boxed opened and returned because its the wrong model/make/shade of fuchsia but in reality its not been used OR its been used, wiped and the software re-installed. If its the second then i personally wouldnt touch it. The trouble is that you are unlikely to be able to establish the difference so ive always avoided them

  • Returns.

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    it would depend entirely on the type of trade, what sort of trade do you usually do?

  • 1 Votes
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    @jason-parker Same I love the automation its the future!

  • Monthly points target

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    @ben-jolley I think the question here for me is this:

    'Once I get to 1pt profit does my trading go downhill? Or was it variance?'

    If you are still trading well and you are still pushing the same edge you were before then there is no reason not to keep on trading. Statistically it does not make sense to stop.

    However, if you find you are becoming looser with your trades and not staying in the 'trading zone' during the longer sessions then you should definitely stop when you feel that happening.

  • Quick software automation question

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    19 Posts
    796 Views

    @simon ok mate cheers I’ll keep plugging away and see what I can work out. Really interesting software though can definitely see some potential in it πŸ‘

  • In-Play Stat sites

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    5 Posts
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    come on United at least make the end of the season exciting for the European places

  • Exchange overrounds advice

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  • Pre-Match Soccer Trading Thread

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    14 Posts
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    Wolves on one tick recycle for me today & Liverpool are also on it.

    Graphs are pretty strong up and down a tick for them both at present - will do it all day if the graph stays the same.

  • Trading Software

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    I really like BF Bot manager like Charles for automation purposes. Once setup you can just leave the computer on and it does all the work.
    I have it directly linked to Proform too, so it just takes my selection everyday and bets on them.

  • Weight of Money Help.

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  • Simons April Trades

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    @gary-brown hi Gary, yeah I rarely actually LCS. I either back the next overs when it reaches 1.6, or I LTD if it’s a draw. Keeps liabilities down, I’m comfortable at these odds and more importantly, it seems to be profitable. Shame about my another strategies haha!