Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    17 Topics
    6k Posts

    I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

    Player Matches Won >= 0
    Category WTA-Singles
    Scope Last 10 Matches
    βœ… Restrict To Same Surface Type

    IMG_1029.png

    IMG_1031.png

    IMG_1030.png

    IMG_1032.png

    In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

    You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
    For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    Cricket video:

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    59 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Kurtis-Steven-Graham Hard to say.

    It's the actual rules that tell you what is happening.

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    362 Posts

    A few years ago I wrote a Betfair Trading bankroll managment guide for traders of all types. It is still a great article and worth reading for all traders you can [FIND IT HERE](https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need).

    However, as lots of our Football Trading and Horse Racing traders are now using set and forget strategies, I realise we also need a guide for that type of betting bankroll.

    Set and forget strategies are essentially just betting on an outcome and letting the bet run.Β 

    This style of Betfair trading has become more popular in recent years, the idea of sitting at a PC all day trading is not only too time consuming but also not neccessary to make money on Betfair.Β 

    So, hey, why not save time and effort and use straight bets to make money? I mean if it makes money who cares what type of betting it is?

    Anyway, if you are at all interesting in set and forget betting on Betfair then you need to read this guide!

    Β 

    What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader?

    We get asked this question all the time! However, the answer is different for set and forget betting...

    The key thing you have to be aware of when placing bets with no intention of trading out is that you will lose 100% of the stake you use.Β 

    This is obvious but the reason I mention this is that you will have more variance than the typical trading strategy, in some cases a lot more.Β 

    It's simple maths really, if you lose 100% of your stake when you lose a bet your losing runs will be more impactful.Β 

    So the way to combat this problem is proper bankroll management!Β 

    Every time we bet we are risking that stake, so let's think about each bet as a BIG BET.

    Our bankroll needs to have a certain amount of BIG BETS to cover a losing run.

    Not only that we don't want one bad day to cripple our bankroll, so we need enough to be extra safe.

    How many BIG BETS would you want?

    Well in trading you can get away with 50 (2% of your bankroll 2x50=100%) because you will not lose the full stake, you will be cashing out for a profit or a loss at some point.

    However, when straight betting 50 is not enough. Imagine you have a losing streak of 10 bets, this can easily happen when betting at odds against even when betting at evens.

    Suddenly you have lost 20% of your bankroll and that could be in one day.Β 

    That's not a sensible staking plan.

    So how many BIG BETS do we need.

    Well it depends on the odds you are backing at. Let me explain.

    If you are generally betting at odds on maybe 1.5 or below you could probably get away with 100 big bets.

    1% of your bankroll per bet should be fine because you will win at least 66% of the time on average.Β 

    If you are betting at evens to 3.0 you could probably get away with 200 big bets. (0.5% of your bankroll)

    This is actually the kind of bankroll professional poker players use, they will have 200-250 buy ins behind them (so when you see a player lose their buy in on TV, it's not the big deal the broadcasters will try and tell you!).

    If you are betting at odds above 3.0 it can get tricky, you will want more big bets the higher the odds go! Maybe 500+!

    Β 

    So Let's Talk Money!Β 

    All this talk of percentages is great and definitely where you should start thinking from, rather than financial amounts but I know most of you will be asking, how much money do I need to bet on Betfair?

    Firstly, if you are new to trading you should start low, go as low as possible Β£1 bets so you need enough money to have as many Β£1 big bets as you need. Β£100 for 100 big bets, Β£250 for 250 big bets and so on.Β 

    Then you can raise stakes as you earn money according to your percentages, so you use the same percentage per bet but increase the stake naturally as your bankroll grows.Β 

    So if I doubled my bankroll from Β£100 to Β£200, I would now use Β£2 stakes and still have 100 big bets.

    If you want to know what bankroll I recommend for pro traders it is still the same as the previous article.

    If you are placing multiple bets per day on a variety of profitable strategies Β£5,000-Β£10,000 will be a great starting point, you can easily go semi-pro at that level, however, because of the low stake percentages you are probably going to want to get that up to Β£20,000+ eventually.

    Although, as I always state there is no rush!Β 

    Remember set and forget is so easy, you just place your bets and get on with your day, so there is less pressure to make big money because you are not wasting any time where you could be doing other things.

    Β 

    What if it goes wrong?

    My simple rule that I have been told by so many traders over the years was godsend is this:

    If I lose half my bankroll I halve my stakes. (Obviously if you are using Β£1 minimum this can't be done but it's not a major worry at that level, you just may need to look at a different portfolio of strategies).

    By halving our stakes we give ourselves another chance to have success and it's nearly impossible to 'bust out' and lose our whole bankroll.Β 

    If I am using a Β£5,000 bankroll and Β£50 stakes then if it gets to Β£2,500 I will reduce stakes to Β£25 and so on.Β 

    This gives you maximum bankroll protecting and you will never be the victim of a horror 'I LOST MY BANKROLL IN ONE DAY' story!

    Β 

    One final bit of advice...

    Please test your strategies before putting money on them, don't just backtest but forward test them as you go.

    Give it 6-12 months and really get a feel for what works and what doesn't before putting serious money down!Β 

    The biggest mistake Betfair traders make is to bet heavily on a strategy they have not fully tested, which usually leads to disaster.

    If you have any more questions about this please do not hesitate to ask me on the forum or contact my via email [email protected]

    Be safe with your bankroll, it will become your best friend in hard times!

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  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    43 Topics
    850 Posts

    @alexander-hughes It's been a long time since I used it to be honest. I guess the BD version hasn't had the same development as the BF one, but surely a basic bot should be transferable

  • 90 Topics
    5k Posts

    @Ryan said in Netflix/Amazon/Gaming and Book Recommendations:

    @Tony-Hastie I have that to maybe watch not sold on it though, wife wants to do that other one as well not sure what it's called got the word reindeer in it.

    I will not be watching that. My wife will though. Each to their own. Three body problem seems ok though.

    Try these
    Fallout(amazing)
    Shogun(just wow)
    Mayor of Kingstown(did two series in five days)

  • 1 Votes
    32 Posts
    2k Views

    This is where a plan works so well, especially if your trading is at HT.

    Jump in BTC see forum, get the stats for your selections.

    Add them to an app with alerts
    Get the selections on evernote (others are available)

    Alert comes in check it, great 0-0HT right off we go, place the LTD - alert goal trade out.

    If using stop losses then I just use the alarm function on my phone set it for the duration of the trade.

  • "The Good Day" LTD system

    1 Votes
    463 Posts
    26k Views

    @denis-caunce yeah Im in πŸ˜ƒ

  • Who to follow on Twitter

    0 Votes
    40 Posts
    2k Views

    @dave-jessop said in Who to follow on Twitter:

    Hey guys - where can I see a list of those I've followed on Twatter? - I followed someone a couple of weeks ago and my history only goes back to the 28th

    Should be on your profile under following

  • US Sports Trading Thread

    1 Votes
    9 Posts
    644 Views

    Atlanta could very well be a false favourite tonight against Washington who are a home dog. There’s not much in it The Nats are 2.02 and the Braves are 1.97. However Washington are 38-18 over their last 56 matches and are now only 4.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. As it stands Washington would be hosting the NL Wildcard game. Atlanta is 16-35 in their last 51 in Washington. The Nats are also 20-6 in their last 26 matches against NL East teams. I’m going to be getting on the Nats and looking to close if I can lock in a profit.

  • Small Wins - Weekly Thread

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    1k Views

    @ken-paine YES!! This is great buddy, I always think take small consistent profits? OR one big one then lose it and hate the next X months trading?

    From small acorns grow huge trees. The only things that change through the stakes are you, markets are mechanical they move because of X,Y & Z. Doesn't change too much, handle the smaller stakes you'll move up and handle the bigger ones.

  • Trading Beliefs

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    930 Views

    Cheers, la. Will do!

  • Tech help

    0 Votes
    4 Posts
    335 Views

    @craig-brown Refurbished generally means one of two things in terms of technology products. Either its just had its boxed opened and returned because its the wrong model/make/shade of fuchsia but in reality its not been used OR its been used, wiped and the software re-installed. If its the second then i personally wouldnt touch it. The trouble is that you are unlikely to be able to establish the difference so ive always avoided them

  • Returns.

    1 Votes
    2 Posts
    291 Views

    it would depend entirely on the type of trade, what sort of trade do you usually do?

  • 1 Votes
    7 Posts
    427 Views

    @jason-parker Same I love the automation its the future!

  • Monthly points target

    1 Votes
    2 Posts
    249 Views

    @ben-jolley I think the question here for me is this:

    'Once I get to 1pt profit does my trading go downhill? Or was it variance?'

    If you are still trading well and you are still pushing the same edge you were before then there is no reason not to keep on trading. Statistically it does not make sense to stop.

    However, if you find you are becoming looser with your trades and not staying in the 'trading zone' during the longer sessions then you should definitely stop when you feel that happening.

  • Quick software automation question

    0 Votes
    19 Posts
    796 Views

    @simon ok mate cheers I’ll keep plugging away and see what I can work out. Really interesting software though can definitely see some potential in it πŸ‘

  • In-Play Stat sites

    1 Votes
    5 Posts
    371 Views

    come on United at least make the end of the season exciting for the European places

  • Exchange overrounds advice

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    197 Views
    No one has replied
  • Pre-Match Soccer Trading Thread

    0 Votes
    14 Posts
    769 Views

    Wolves on one tick recycle for me today & Liverpool are also on it.

    Graphs are pretty strong up and down a tick for them both at present - will do it all day if the graph stays the same.

  • Trading Software

    1 Votes
    17 Posts
    884 Views

    I really like BF Bot manager like Charles for automation purposes. Once setup you can just leave the computer on and it does all the work.
    I have it directly linked to Proform too, so it just takes my selection everyday and bets on them.

  • Weight of Money Help.

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    203 Views
    No one has replied
  • Simons April Trades

    3 Votes
    54 Posts
    4k Views

    @gary-brown hi Gary, yeah I rarely actually LCS. I either back the next overs when it reaches 1.6, or I LTD if it’s a draw. Keeps liabilities down, I’m comfortable at these odds and more importantly, it seems to be profitable. Shame about my another strategies haha!

  • Newbie Matched Betting Insurance

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    216 Views
    No one has replied
  • Automation/VPS/Servers

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    276 Views
    No one has replied
  • Trade Post Mortem Thread

    1 Votes
    8 Posts
    944 Views

    I could fill a couple of really boring books with all the dumb things I did in the first few years after 'discovering' that i could actually trade on betfair.

    My biggest single loss ever wasn't on horses though (although when on tilt a couple of times blew my entire bankroll in a single afternoon of racing) but on the T20 World Cup cricket when England played West Indies. I had a very substantial initial wager on England, quadrupled it at the end of the England innings and then even added more after Windies lost early wickets at some stupidly low price. I am embarrassed to say that I left it all out there...didn't even bother to eliminate my liability and then watched it evaporate in the last over.

    I look at that now and cringe......sheer greed and arrogance and probably a desperate need to recoup losses on some 'system' that I was staking 15-20% of my bankroll on after a few successful trades.