Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    17 Topics
    6k Posts

    I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

    Player Matches Won >= 0
    Category WTA-Singles
    Scope Last 10 Matches
    ✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type

    IMG_1029.png

    IMG_1031.png

    IMG_1030.png

    IMG_1032.png

    In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

    You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
    For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    @Fraser-cord

    Works well any decent T20 league
    Back opening team first exit 20% profit or 50% loss

    been doing this for a while

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    59 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Kurtis-Steven-Graham Hard to say.

    It's the actual rules that tell you what is happening.

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    362 Posts

    A few years ago I wrote a Betfair Trading bankroll managment guide for traders of all types. It is still a great article and worth reading for all traders you can [FIND IT HERE](https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need).

    However, as lots of our Football Trading and Horse Racing traders are now using set and forget strategies, I realise we also need a guide for that type of betting bankroll.

    Set and forget strategies are essentially just betting on an outcome and letting the bet run. 

    This style of Betfair trading has become more popular in recent years, the idea of sitting at a PC all day trading is not only too time consuming but also not neccessary to make money on Betfair. 

    So, hey, why not save time and effort and use straight bets to make money? I mean if it makes money who cares what type of betting it is?

    Anyway, if you are at all interesting in set and forget betting on Betfair then you need to read this guide!

     

    What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader?

    We get asked this question all the time! However, the answer is different for set and forget betting...

    The key thing you have to be aware of when placing bets with no intention of trading out is that you will lose 100% of the stake you use. 

    This is obvious but the reason I mention this is that you will have more variance than the typical trading strategy, in some cases a lot more. 

    It's simple maths really, if you lose 100% of your stake when you lose a bet your losing runs will be more impactful. 

    So the way to combat this problem is proper bankroll management! 

    Every time we bet we are risking that stake, so let's think about each bet as a BIG BET.

    Our bankroll needs to have a certain amount of BIG BETS to cover a losing run.

    Not only that we don't want one bad day to cripple our bankroll, so we need enough to be extra safe.

    How many BIG BETS would you want?

    Well in trading you can get away with 50 (2% of your bankroll 2x50=100%) because you will not lose the full stake, you will be cashing out for a profit or a loss at some point.

    However, when straight betting 50 is not enough. Imagine you have a losing streak of 10 bets, this can easily happen when betting at odds against even when betting at evens.

    Suddenly you have lost 20% of your bankroll and that could be in one day. 

    That's not a sensible staking plan.

    So how many BIG BETS do we need.

    Well it depends on the odds you are backing at. Let me explain.

    If you are generally betting at odds on maybe 1.5 or below you could probably get away with 100 big bets.

    1% of your bankroll per bet should be fine because you will win at least 66% of the time on average. 

    If you are betting at evens to 3.0 you could probably get away with 200 big bets. (0.5% of your bankroll)

    This is actually the kind of bankroll professional poker players use, they will have 200-250 buy ins behind them (so when you see a player lose their buy in on TV, it's not the big deal the broadcasters will try and tell you!).

    If you are betting at odds above 3.0 it can get tricky, you will want more big bets the higher the odds go! Maybe 500+!

     

    So Let's Talk Money! 

    All this talk of percentages is great and definitely where you should start thinking from, rather than financial amounts but I know most of you will be asking, how much money do I need to bet on Betfair?

    Firstly, if you are new to trading you should start low, go as low as possible £1 bets so you need enough money to have as many £1 big bets as you need. £100 for 100 big bets, £250 for 250 big bets and so on. 

    Then you can raise stakes as you earn money according to your percentages, so you use the same percentage per bet but increase the stake naturally as your bankroll grows. 

    So if I doubled my bankroll from £100 to £200, I would now use £2 stakes and still have 100 big bets.

    If you want to know what bankroll I recommend for pro traders it is still the same as the previous article.

    If you are placing multiple bets per day on a variety of profitable strategies £5,000-£10,000 will be a great starting point, you can easily go semi-pro at that level, however, because of the low stake percentages you are probably going to want to get that up to £20,000+ eventually.

    Although, as I always state there is no rush! 

    Remember set and forget is so easy, you just place your bets and get on with your day, so there is less pressure to make big money because you are not wasting any time where you could be doing other things.

     

    What if it goes wrong?

    My simple rule that I have been told by so many traders over the years was godsend is this:

    If I lose half my bankroll I halve my stakes. (Obviously if you are using £1 minimum this can't be done but it's not a major worry at that level, you just may need to look at a different portfolio of strategies).

    By halving our stakes we give ourselves another chance to have success and it's nearly impossible to 'bust out' and lose our whole bankroll. 

    If I am using a £5,000 bankroll and £50 stakes then if it gets to £2,500 I will reduce stakes to £25 and so on. 

    This gives you maximum bankroll protecting and you will never be the victim of a horror 'I LOST MY BANKROLL IN ONE DAY' story!

     

    One final bit of advice...

    Please test your strategies before putting money on them, don't just backtest but forward test them as you go.

    Give it 6-12 months and really get a feel for what works and what doesn't before putting serious money down! 

    The biggest mistake Betfair traders make is to bet heavily on a strategy they have not fully tested, which usually leads to disaster.

    If you have any more questions about this please do not hesitate to ask me on the forum or contact my via email [email protected]

    Be safe with your bankroll, it will become your best friend in hard times!

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    44 Topics
    2k Posts

    @Greg-Mitchell That's great Greg. Have got everything except the tipster bit right. Will try that. Thank you so much for getting back to me so quickly.

  • 90 Topics
    5k Posts

    @John-Folan nice will fire it up later

  • What am I missing?

    1 Votes
    9 Posts
    567 Views

    @ryan-carruthers ah gotcha 👍

  • Data Manipulation

    1 Votes
    5 Posts
    402 Views

    @darri

    Hi Darri! Thanks for the reply!

    What I will do is I will post more detailed info about the two filters to my trading thread on here (may not be today, probs at weekend) so you’ve got more info to work with! I appreciate any and all input! 😁

  • Leaving btc

    5 Votes
    7 Posts
    578 Views

    Best of luck @Dan-Erridge

    Stay in touch!

  • In play stats

    0 Votes
    3 Posts
    390 Views

    @adam-broadway for me the first thing is to make sure it is a game on my shortlist. I have written an article that details good stats to get in on https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

  • 2 Step Verification

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    916 Views

    @martin-futter said in 2 Step Verification:

    @richard-latimer it’s not that, why keep so much money in there? If you have all of your bankroll tempting you to go all in it’s riskier imo.

    I would never do that but some interesting points. I'll decide where to go from here.

  • newbie trading advice

    2 Votes
    7 Posts
    464 Views

    @ben-dobie cheers mate its going well so far

  • Record odds history

    1 Votes
    4 Posts
    348 Views

    I think you'll need to track them yourself in play, you can get some data from Betfair (not sure if they've changed this) but when I used it before it wasn't the best to use and didn't give the numbers I wanted & didn't correlate to what was happening.

    I believe Bet Angel might have a product that has done something with this in play.

  • THE DREADED CALL

    1 Votes
    25 Posts
    2k Views

    @ryan-carruthers said in THE DREADED CALL:

    @james-everard Defo! Whats your beer of choice?

    Wife beater ( Stella) two cans I will fight anyone lol

  • 1 Votes
    4 Posts
    351 Views

    He wasn't wearing a jersey 😮

  • German Football back!

    2 Votes
    4 Posts
    394 Views

    brilliant news

  • E Sports

    0 Votes
    211 Posts
    12k Views

    Took a short price lay on Evil Geniuses too but not panning out so red on that. Cloud9 screwed it up but I took the lay because a 2-0 was unlikely although that loss was on Cloud9's pick and they threw away a 7 round lead. My lay price was 1.66. If it hits 1.12 I'll take my leave for the day and red.

  • Betfair offer

    1 Votes
    8 Posts
    447 Views

    Although I think it is the same data ( maybe wrong, normally am lol) but if you type into your search engine http//:betfairspprice the first option is says betfair sp history. The second paragraph says the following final win and place Betfair starting prices for Gb and Irish races are available for each day in the files here ( highlighted in blue). Click the blue here and it gives you all the data for horses and dogs for years.

  • Anyone used Betaminic Website?

    0 Votes
    15 Posts
    840 Views

    @mark-cooper I've not yet signed up buddy 🙂

  • Telegram group

    0 Votes
    3 Posts
    331 Views

    @dan-erridge we have tried it before but we preferred using the forum for alerts

  • DARTS

    1 Votes
    6 Posts
    409 Views

    @james-everard Cracking book! Let me know what you takeaway from it.

  • Political Trading Thread

    Locked
  • AFL Season 2020 yep it’s going ahead

    2 Votes
    13 Posts
    584 Views

    Dam it was played at 3am but that Essendon v Fremantle match would have been perfect. The Bombers 24 points up start of last quarter and won by 6.

    As would the Adelaide v Sydney match. Might have to have some early starts in case the later matches don’t offer the opportunities.

  • Entry Points S/R ROI Help!!

    1 Votes
    3 Posts
    317 Views

    Hi mate sorry i was trading the football tonight and thought id get back to you after the hustle had died down. ROI is net profit divided by total assets. So in your case it would be 11% on the low odds version and 16% on the 1.50 odds entry. Before i answer it, let me just say congrats on finding a profitable system.

    Let me ask you a quick question what do you feel more comfortable doing? The amount of trades you are performing with the low odds entry, to equal the same amount of profit as the 1.50 odds is rather alot. What this means is your having to be more efficient in managing your trades. Just because its less odds doesnt actually mean less risk because now your having to trade more games which is increasing risk the same amount. We are all prone to mistakes and just because you have paper traded doesnt mean mistakes wont happen. Which with this risk/reward for low odds your going to get hit hard both bank wise and mentally.

    Are you doing any pre match research other than just what the filter puts up? or are you just trading every game on it? If you take the 1.50 entry you can increase that strike rate and be in a healthier position. Not to mention on top of that the 1.5/60 mins entry allows you to take a look at how the match is progressing. So you can see inplay stats or be able to watch the game. Imagine having to do that with the amount of games your low odds entry has. I 100% believe if you followed this approach you could tighten your strike rate up and would be making more profits.

    For me its a not about the quantity. There is a massive tendency because you have a high strike rate difference between the 2 different entries that youll favour the higher one hence why your defensive of it in the last few sentences. The low odds entry will have lower variance but your potential profit ie if you have a good batch of 100 trades wont be as significant as if you were to say increase your strike rate of the 1.5 entry by even 2-3% per 100. Not every 100 batch of games will perform identical. The gaps between 72-75% has a far greater impact on profit and would only require 5-6 games heading in your favour to achieve that unlike the low odds when your already hitting the ceiling with the profit potential.

    Let me know if you have any follow up comment.

    I have been busy trading today and also been helping another member with his trading which is getting pretty detailed. If you want my email just send me a private message. Id also use the private coaching section and wrack the brains of ryan and martin. But im always up for helping anyone best i can.

  • betfair charges

    0 Votes
    4 Posts
    366 Views

    @james-everard said in betfair charges:

    Hi Jarratt

    Yes mate that is the message I got. I had no idea that there was restrictions on the number of bets you could do within a hour. I watched a video on Utube from Betangel on setting up automation for greyhounds, it was tiny stakes of 10p that over a 4minute period rearming every 5 seconds max of 200. I wish they had of mentioned in the video that to be careful not to automate more than 1000 bets in a hour otherwise you will be hit with yet another charge from Betfair.
    I will refine the automation so it just does 10 bets max for the event.
    So, all in all, I had a f....ing dreadful weekend of trades going wrong and charges being applied. Just to confirm is it a max of 1000 bets in 1 hour under this there is no additional charges?

    yes - under 1000.

    Sadly we all have to make the mistakes to learn 🙂 I think the reasoning is Betfair may think you're collecting a lot of data which they don't want you to do as they sell it for £200 a month i think!

    Least you caught it early 🙂