Entry Points S/R ROI Help!!

[A Former User]

@Darri
Apologies for the creation of a new thread, I Just didn't want to clog up the football trading thread, and to Admin if this does need moving then please do so.
So let me try to explain the position I'm currently at in regards to my trading.
I've been working with a second half goal filter for around 8 months now, only using micro stakes, and using it as more of an education to learn more about different aspects of trading, (discipline,emotion, how markets move etc) over the 8 months i've built up a database of around 400 games implementing the filter I have created.
The good news is that it seems to have potential to be a profitable system as i'm returning around an 84% success rate in terms of finding a second half goal.
Now this is the point that i'm confusing myself in regards to entry points, strike rate and ROI!
Bare with me and i will try to explain my position.

So as previously mentioned over the last 8 months I have a database of 423 games that qualified for my second half goal filter with 360 of those returning a second half goal.
My average odds for entering at Half time are 1.28 and im using 2% of my bank when entering the trade.
For the purpose of the calculations I will use a £1000 bank.

So with each winning trade I will win £5.60 minus commision
Each losing trade £20

Therefore per 100 trades I calculate that I make £110.40 profit minus commision, are these maths correct and if so what would that constitute as an ROI?

I've also filtered the results to enter a 60 Minutes and have 273 games with 197 second half goals for a 72% success rate in terms of second half goal after 60 mins.
My average odds when entering at 60 mins are 1.50.
Assuming the same £1000 bank and 2% stake

So with each winning trade I win £10 minus commision
Each losing trade £20

Therefore for per 100 trades I Calculate I make £160 minus commision, again are these maths correct? And what would the ROI be?

Hopefully you're still with me at this point!

So moving forward im trying to work out when best to enter the trade with the results i've had previously from my filter.

Obviously I can see im making more per 100 trades entering at 1.50 (assuming my maths are correct) However Over the course of the 8 months I would have traded over a 150 more games getting in at half time, also I feel the strike rate would be less likely to variance getting in at half time as they would getting in after 60 mins.

Hopefully some of that waffle makes sense and any advice would be much appreciated.

[A Former User]

Hi mate sorry i was trading the football tonight and thought id get back to you after the hustle had died down. ROI is net profit divided by total assets. So in your case it would be 11% on the low odds version and 16% on the 1.50 odds entry. Before i answer it, let me just say congrats on finding a profitable system.

Let me ask you a quick question what do you feel more comfortable doing? The amount of trades you are performing with the low odds entry, to equal the same amount of profit as the 1.50 odds is rather alot. What this means is your having to be more efficient in managing your trades. Just because its less odds doesnt actually mean less risk because now your having to trade more games which is increasing risk the same amount. We are all prone to mistakes and just because you have paper traded doesnt mean mistakes wont happen. Which with this risk/reward for low odds your going to get hit hard both bank wise and mentally.

Are you doing any pre match research other than just what the filter puts up? or are you just trading every game on it? If you take the 1.50 entry you can increase that strike rate and be in a healthier position. Not to mention on top of that the 1.5/60 mins entry allows you to take a look at how the match is progressing. So you can see inplay stats or be able to watch the game. Imagine having to do that with the amount of games your low odds entry has. I 100% believe if you followed this approach you could tighten your strike rate up and would be making more profits.

For me its a not about the quantity. There is a massive tendency because you have a high strike rate difference between the 2 different entries that youll favour the higher one hence why your defensive of it in the last few sentences. The low odds entry will have lower variance but your potential profit ie if you have a good batch of 100 trades wont be as significant as if you were to say increase your strike rate of the 1.5 entry by even 2-3% per 100. Not every 100 batch of games will perform identical. The gaps between 72-75% has a far greater impact on profit and would only require 5-6 games heading in your favour to achieve that unlike the low odds when your already hitting the ceiling with the profit potential.

Let me know if you have any follow up comment.

I have been busy trading today and also been helping another member with his trading which is getting pretty detailed. If you want my email just send me a private message. Id also use the private coaching section and wrack the brains of ryan and martin. But im always up for helping anyone best i can.

[Martin]

As this is for Darri this is quite a simplistic answer so if you want more depth from us let me or @Ryan-Carruthers know.

Go with the strategy that is making you more money, you are right that you will get less wild variance with HT entry but of course the odds are less favorable which balances it out. Unless you want to trade more matches in which case go the other way.