Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    17 Topics
    6k Posts

    I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

    Player Matches Won >= 0
    Category WTA-Singles
    Scope Last 10 Matches
    ✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type

    IMG_1029.png

    IMG_1031.png

    IMG_1030.png

    IMG_1032.png

    In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

    You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
    For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    Cricket video:

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    59 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Kurtis-Steven-Graham Hard to say.

    It's the actual rules that tell you what is happening.

  • Our daily pro picks

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    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    362 Posts

    A few years ago I wrote a Betfair Trading bankroll managment guide for traders of all types. It is still a great article and worth reading for all traders you can [FIND IT HERE](https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need).

    However, as lots of our Football Trading and Horse Racing traders are now using set and forget strategies, I realise we also need a guide for that type of betting bankroll.

    Set and forget strategies are essentially just betting on an outcome and letting the bet run. 

    This style of Betfair trading has become more popular in recent years, the idea of sitting at a PC all day trading is not only too time consuming but also not neccessary to make money on Betfair. 

    So, hey, why not save time and effort and use straight bets to make money? I mean if it makes money who cares what type of betting it is?

    Anyway, if you are at all interesting in set and forget betting on Betfair then you need to read this guide!

     

    What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader?

    We get asked this question all the time! However, the answer is different for set and forget betting...

    The key thing you have to be aware of when placing bets with no intention of trading out is that you will lose 100% of the stake you use. 

    This is obvious but the reason I mention this is that you will have more variance than the typical trading strategy, in some cases a lot more. 

    It's simple maths really, if you lose 100% of your stake when you lose a bet your losing runs will be more impactful. 

    So the way to combat this problem is proper bankroll management! 

    Every time we bet we are risking that stake, so let's think about each bet as a BIG BET.

    Our bankroll needs to have a certain amount of BIG BETS to cover a losing run.

    Not only that we don't want one bad day to cripple our bankroll, so we need enough to be extra safe.

    How many BIG BETS would you want?

    Well in trading you can get away with 50 (2% of your bankroll 2x50=100%) because you will not lose the full stake, you will be cashing out for a profit or a loss at some point.

    However, when straight betting 50 is not enough. Imagine you have a losing streak of 10 bets, this can easily happen when betting at odds against even when betting at evens.

    Suddenly you have lost 20% of your bankroll and that could be in one day. 

    That's not a sensible staking plan.

    So how many BIG BETS do we need.

    Well it depends on the odds you are backing at. Let me explain.

    If you are generally betting at odds on maybe 1.5 or below you could probably get away with 100 big bets.

    1% of your bankroll per bet should be fine because you will win at least 66% of the time on average. 

    If you are betting at evens to 3.0 you could probably get away with 200 big bets. (0.5% of your bankroll)

    This is actually the kind of bankroll professional poker players use, they will have 200-250 buy ins behind them (so when you see a player lose their buy in on TV, it's not the big deal the broadcasters will try and tell you!).

    If you are betting at odds above 3.0 it can get tricky, you will want more big bets the higher the odds go! Maybe 500+!

     

    So Let's Talk Money! 

    All this talk of percentages is great and definitely where you should start thinking from, rather than financial amounts but I know most of you will be asking, how much money do I need to bet on Betfair?

    Firstly, if you are new to trading you should start low, go as low as possible £1 bets so you need enough money to have as many £1 big bets as you need. £100 for 100 big bets, £250 for 250 big bets and so on. 

    Then you can raise stakes as you earn money according to your percentages, so you use the same percentage per bet but increase the stake naturally as your bankroll grows. 

    So if I doubled my bankroll from £100 to £200, I would now use £2 stakes and still have 100 big bets.

    If you want to know what bankroll I recommend for pro traders it is still the same as the previous article.

    If you are placing multiple bets per day on a variety of profitable strategies £5,000-£10,000 will be a great starting point, you can easily go semi-pro at that level, however, because of the low stake percentages you are probably going to want to get that up to £20,000+ eventually.

    Although, as I always state there is no rush! 

    Remember set and forget is so easy, you just place your bets and get on with your day, so there is less pressure to make big money because you are not wasting any time where you could be doing other things.

     

    What if it goes wrong?

    My simple rule that I have been told by so many traders over the years was godsend is this:

    If I lose half my bankroll I halve my stakes. (Obviously if you are using £1 minimum this can't be done but it's not a major worry at that level, you just may need to look at a different portfolio of strategies).

    By halving our stakes we give ourselves another chance to have success and it's nearly impossible to 'bust out' and lose our whole bankroll. 

    If I am using a £5,000 bankroll and £50 stakes then if it gets to £2,500 I will reduce stakes to £25 and so on. 

    This gives you maximum bankroll protecting and you will never be the victim of a horror 'I LOST MY BANKROLL IN ONE DAY' story!

     

    One final bit of advice...

    Please test your strategies before putting money on them, don't just backtest but forward test them as you go.

    Give it 6-12 months and really get a feel for what works and what doesn't before putting serious money down! 

    The biggest mistake Betfair traders make is to bet heavily on a strategy they have not fully tested, which usually leads to disaster.

    If you have any more questions about this please do not hesitate to ask me on the forum or contact my via email [email protected]

    Be safe with your bankroll, it will become your best friend in hard times!

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    44 Topics
    851 Posts

    Example of a spreadsheet to use to tracks bets/trades: Example Spreadsheet.xlsx

  • 90 Topics
    5k Posts

    I'm way behind with TV. Literally just started watching Black Mirror!

  • BUILDING A NEW FILTER IN BTC STATS

    1 Votes
    2 Posts
    310 Views

    @maverick-travis may be best referring this to @ryan as I don't know his criteria

  • USA football/soccer

    2 Votes
    13 Posts
    942 Views

    @matt-wood said in USA football/soccer:

    You can open a window and not worry about the whole cast of A Bug’s Life wandering in!

    YES! I have a bit of an OCD issue with insects in the house, if I see or hear a fly in the house then I can't rest until I get it out.

    I keep 75 tarantulas in my office (plus assorted mantises and scorpions). They are great for keeping the flies down....

  • Greyhound trading

    0 Votes
    17 Posts
    2k Views

    Morning guys, quick question re greyhound tracks. Does anyone have or know a website I can find out what the distances are that the split times are taken from ? Just for the standard distances.

    I did come across a site a few years ago that had this info on but for the life of me I can't find it now.

  • Demo mode on betfair with trading software

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    4 Posts
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    You use demo mode to practise for a few days to make sure you know what you are doing, and to ensure bots work as they should. Then you switch to real mode. If you are trading, £1 should only result in pennies being lost if you mess up. 🙂

  • Horse racing software help

    0 Votes
    12 Posts
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    @adam
    Hi Adam, I find it more straight forward with using simple tick boxes that you can select or de-select.
    Just my thoughts.

  • AFL Trading Season 2021

    3 Votes
    69 Posts
    8k Views

    link text

    Interesting article here (hopefully the link works) on how the AFL Top 8 doesn’t shift too much from what it looks like in Round 7.

    Potential trade opportunities here. Richmond is possibly the best lay opportunity at face value?

  • Chromebook friendly trading Software

    1 Votes
    9 Posts
    1k Views

    Bit late maybe (I've only just joined), but take a look at Bang Bang Bets. It runs in a browser so not a problem on any OS, I just don't know if its any good, as still looking at strategies, so haven't tried it properly.

    Any feedback from more experienced folk than me (which is everyone at the moment) would be useful though.

    Thanks

  • Cymatic Trader Software

    1 Votes
    3 Posts
    512 Views

    @david-pickett cheers for this!

  • 1 Votes
    43 Posts
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    @keith-anderson flip me what kind of mates do you have, that's awful!

  • Trading Golf - Masters

    2 Votes
    29 Posts
    4k Views

    @simji Yep, I hear you and have had similar challenges and outcomes. I trade across Winner, Top5 and Top 10 markets but it’s really only winner where you have consistent liquidity throughout.

    A couple of ideas (strategies is too generous) I’ve been toying with lately:

    1. Lay 3rd round leader - Laying 3rd round leader if they’re outside Top 50 OWGR and leading by 3 or less strokes. Historically have poor conversion rate. I need to get sharper on entry odds

    2. Laying low faves - Looking where strong faves are too short. Eg: I got Rahm this weekend gone at $1.28 for Top 5 finish after 2nd round. He was up top (or 2nd) but a log jam of players within a few strokes of lead. My theory was there’s likely to be movement and worse case he’s unlikely to won’t shorten much more after 3rd round unless he streaks to lead. I was able to exit after 3rd Rd at @ $1.43 for nice green.

    I’m starting to collect data on how the Top 5 shifts through the rounds as I’ve been reading some stuff around the fact we place to much emphasis on players “being hot” and actually history suggests in most cases they come back to the norm during the 4 rounds. I’m also tracking how the winners generally track over the 4 rounds to see what trends I can find (if any).

    NB: I’ve tried to find historical data on leaderboards across rounds but haven’t had much luck so I’m starting with my own data.

  • Bet tracking website...

    2 Votes
    4 Posts
    723 Views

    @oliver-preen timely as I have just spoken with a google sheets wiz kid about building something for you guys!

  • THE Biggest killer to your P&L....

    1 Votes
    5 Posts
    762 Views

    @stuart-capstick This needs to be on a bumper sticker

  • New year, new you?

    2 Votes
    6 Posts
    865 Views

    @oliver-preen Oliver I like your plans and reading them. mine are similar especially in terms of the number of trade and only trading one match in a specific time slot as well as the number of games you trade, I Started this before christmas and found it worked well

    The trading plan idea is a good one, I have that and find its useful.

    Bankroll, I have after watching Ryans video on it, use only 2% of my bank so far and plan to scale upwards as bank grows, and in line with the videos I have watched here. I think the most I would see myself staking as bank grows is 5%, but thats way of in the distance yet.

  • Trading Videos

    1 Votes
    6 Posts
    856 Views

    @Oliver-Preen Another excellent video this and again something I have been guilty of, through not focusing on 1 strategy.

    I have noticed from my accounts that focusing on 1 strategy makes a huge amount of difference as long as the trades are carefully selected.

    Thanks for sharing

  • 1 Votes
    13 Posts
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    @martin said in My NFL picks - Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens:

    @johnnys I remember him, good kicker if I recall correctly!

    Correct @Martin he is in the hall of fame and he has all the records a kicker can get, only he never did win the super bowl.

    He is such a great down to earth person and today he sometimes is one of the NFL commentators for the danish tv statioen.

  • Trading v Trading :D

    2 Votes
    5 Posts
    670 Views

    @ryan haha I get all my stocks investment advice from you!

  • 1 Votes
    8 Posts
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    @richard-latimer you're doing fine on the NFL it's not easy!

  • 2 Votes
    2 Posts
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    @Everyone Give this a read 😉

  • Sorare - Fantasy Football

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    3 Posts
    544 Views

    Just avoid! I didnt get burnt by FI so i have no bias. This is worse as some of the prices to get involved is staggering. They recently released a cheaper card type. It was something i looked into as im a ethereum based investor so thought it might be nice to use some of it for that. Your just miles better off keeping all your investment in actual ethereum in blockfi for some extra interest. These people are cleverly bypassing regulation because essentially you own that NFT and therefor its not classed as gambling because your buying something to later sell or collect. Its just something id avoid unless you have fun with it, there is no skill to it as everyone is using the same metrics so everyone is trying to buy the same cards.

  • 1 Votes
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    @marco-frankfort good news that!