Trading Discussion

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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    17 Topics
    6k Posts

    @Martin Hi, thanks yes i think I’ll have to do this as you say to find out. I track the trades so in time should be able to.

    I think getting out of a losing trade with the smallest loss could be something i focus more on rather than staying in for slightly greater wins. Kind of the same thing but the opposite.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    @Fraser-cord

    Works well any decent T20 league
    Back opening team first exit 20% profit or 50% loss

    been doing this for a while

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

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    1k Posts

    @Kurtis-Steven-Graham Hard to say.

    It's the actual rules that tell you what is happening.

  • Our daily pro picks

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    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    362 Posts

    A few years ago I wrote a Betfair Trading bankroll managment guide for traders of all types. It is still a great article and worth reading for all traders you can [FIND IT HERE](https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need).

    However, as lots of our Football Trading and Horse Racing traders are now using set and forget strategies, I realise we also need a guide for that type of betting bankroll.

    Set and forget strategies are essentially just betting on an outcome and letting the bet run. 

    This style of Betfair trading has become more popular in recent years, the idea of sitting at a PC all day trading is not only too time consuming but also not neccessary to make money on Betfair. 

    So, hey, why not save time and effort and use straight bets to make money? I mean if it makes money who cares what type of betting it is?

    Anyway, if you are at all interesting in set and forget betting on Betfair then you need to read this guide!

     

    What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader?

    We get asked this question all the time! However, the answer is different for set and forget betting...

    The key thing you have to be aware of when placing bets with no intention of trading out is that you will lose 100% of the stake you use. 

    This is obvious but the reason I mention this is that you will have more variance than the typical trading strategy, in some cases a lot more. 

    It's simple maths really, if you lose 100% of your stake when you lose a bet your losing runs will be more impactful. 

    So the way to combat this problem is proper bankroll management! 

    Every time we bet we are risking that stake, so let's think about each bet as a BIG BET.

    Our bankroll needs to have a certain amount of BIG BETS to cover a losing run.

    Not only that we don't want one bad day to cripple our bankroll, so we need enough to be extra safe.

    How many BIG BETS would you want?

    Well in trading you can get away with 50 (2% of your bankroll 2x50=100%) because you will not lose the full stake, you will be cashing out for a profit or a loss at some point.

    However, when straight betting 50 is not enough. Imagine you have a losing streak of 10 bets, this can easily happen when betting at odds against even when betting at evens.

    Suddenly you have lost 20% of your bankroll and that could be in one day. 

    That's not a sensible staking plan.

    So how many BIG BETS do we need.

    Well it depends on the odds you are backing at. Let me explain.

    If you are generally betting at odds on maybe 1.5 or below you could probably get away with 100 big bets.

    1% of your bankroll per bet should be fine because you will win at least 66% of the time on average. 

    If you are betting at evens to 3.0 you could probably get away with 200 big bets. (0.5% of your bankroll)

    This is actually the kind of bankroll professional poker players use, they will have 200-250 buy ins behind them (so when you see a player lose their buy in on TV, it's not the big deal the broadcasters will try and tell you!).

    If you are betting at odds above 3.0 it can get tricky, you will want more big bets the higher the odds go! Maybe 500+!

     

    So Let's Talk Money! 

    All this talk of percentages is great and definitely where you should start thinking from, rather than financial amounts but I know most of you will be asking, how much money do I need to bet on Betfair?

    Firstly, if you are new to trading you should start low, go as low as possible £1 bets so you need enough money to have as many £1 big bets as you need. £100 for 100 big bets, £250 for 250 big bets and so on. 

    Then you can raise stakes as you earn money according to your percentages, so you use the same percentage per bet but increase the stake naturally as your bankroll grows. 

    So if I doubled my bankroll from £100 to £200, I would now use £2 stakes and still have 100 big bets.

    If you want to know what bankroll I recommend for pro traders it is still the same as the previous article.

    If you are placing multiple bets per day on a variety of profitable strategies £5,000-£10,000 will be a great starting point, you can easily go semi-pro at that level, however, because of the low stake percentages you are probably going to want to get that up to £20,000+ eventually.

    Although, as I always state there is no rush! 

    Remember set and forget is so easy, you just place your bets and get on with your day, so there is less pressure to make big money because you are not wasting any time where you could be doing other things.

     

    What if it goes wrong?

    My simple rule that I have been told by so many traders over the years was godsend is this:

    If I lose half my bankroll I halve my stakes. (Obviously if you are using £1 minimum this can't be done but it's not a major worry at that level, you just may need to look at a different portfolio of strategies).

    By halving our stakes we give ourselves another chance to have success and it's nearly impossible to 'bust out' and lose our whole bankroll. 

    If I am using a £5,000 bankroll and £50 stakes then if it gets to £2,500 I will reduce stakes to £25 and so on. 

    This gives you maximum bankroll protecting and you will never be the victim of a horror 'I LOST MY BANKROLL IN ONE DAY' story!

     

    One final bit of advice...

    Please test your strategies before putting money on them, don't just backtest but forward test them as you go.

    Give it 6-12 months and really get a feel for what works and what doesn't before putting serious money down! 

    The biggest mistake Betfair traders make is to bet heavily on a strategy they have not fully tested, which usually leads to disaster.

    If you have any more questions about this please do not hesitate to ask me on the forum or contact my via email [email protected]

    Be safe with your bankroll, it will become your best friend in hard times!

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    44 Topics
    2k Posts

    @Greg-Mitchell That's great Greg. Have got everything except the tipster bit right. Will try that. Thank you so much for getting back to me so quickly.

  • 90 Topics
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  • Finances Thread

    1 Votes
    15 Posts
    738 Views

    Your advice is worth 10k Keith

  • LTD with 0:0 insurance

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    2 Posts
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    @ivan1977uk I'm not using any insurance but there's a filter on the members filters called Ryan Betgreen which is a good LTD filter there is a video here

  • overs

  • Unders Galore Strategy:

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    1 Posts
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    No one has replied
  • research

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    7 Posts
    476 Views

    @martin-futter yer m8 I v had a good play with it. I v made an early goals galore filter
    for laying 1-1 in 1st half. there are 2 games tonight that I am going to paper trade. after a week of paper trading I can start it next week on pounds

  • This topic is deleted!

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  • lay the draw half time

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    13 Posts
    668 Views

    going to do the same and lay at a max of 3.0 for a 10/10 trade and bellow 3.0 for 9/10 and 8/10 trades and see how that works, what i found was i was missing most quality trades waiting for the price to reach 2.68, thanks for your help buddy and best of luck

  • dont know what to do.

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    Just grab a piece of paper and then think about everything that has to happen for your trade to come good write that underneath, you could start with @Keith-Anderson filter.

  • 1 Votes
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    This is where a plan works so well, especially if your trading is at HT.

    Jump in BTC see forum, get the stats for your selections.

    Add them to an app with alerts
    Get the selections on evernote (others are available)

    Alert comes in check it, great 0-0HT right off we go, place the LTD - alert goal trade out.

    If using stop losses then I just use the alarm function on my phone set it for the duration of the trade.

  • "The Good Day" LTD system

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    463 Posts
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    @denis-caunce yeah Im in 😃

  • Who to follow on Twitter

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    @dave-jessop said in Who to follow on Twitter:

    Hey guys - where can I see a list of those I've followed on Twatter? - I followed someone a couple of weeks ago and my history only goes back to the 28th

    Should be on your profile under following

  • US Sports Trading Thread

    1 Votes
    9 Posts
    644 Views

    Atlanta could very well be a false favourite tonight against Washington who are a home dog. There’s not much in it The Nats are 2.02 and the Braves are 1.97. However Washington are 38-18 over their last 56 matches and are now only 4.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. As it stands Washington would be hosting the NL Wildcard game. Atlanta is 16-35 in their last 51 in Washington. The Nats are also 20-6 in their last 26 matches against NL East teams. I’m going to be getting on the Nats and looking to close if I can lock in a profit.

  • Small Wins - Weekly Thread

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    1k Views

    @ken-paine YES!! This is great buddy, I always think take small consistent profits? OR one big one then lose it and hate the next X months trading?

    From small acorns grow huge trees. The only things that change through the stakes are you, markets are mechanical they move because of X,Y & Z. Doesn't change too much, handle the smaller stakes you'll move up and handle the bigger ones.

  • Trading Beliefs

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    930 Views

    Cheers, la. Will do!

  • Tech help

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    4 Posts
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    @craig-brown Refurbished generally means one of two things in terms of technology products. Either its just had its boxed opened and returned because its the wrong model/make/shade of fuchsia but in reality its not been used OR its been used, wiped and the software re-installed. If its the second then i personally wouldnt touch it. The trouble is that you are unlikely to be able to establish the difference so ive always avoided them

  • Returns.

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    291 Views

    it would depend entirely on the type of trade, what sort of trade do you usually do?

  • 1 Votes
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    @jason-parker Same I love the automation its the future!

  • Monthly points target

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    2 Posts
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    @ben-jolley I think the question here for me is this:

    'Once I get to 1pt profit does my trading go downhill? Or was it variance?'

    If you are still trading well and you are still pushing the same edge you were before then there is no reason not to keep on trading. Statistically it does not make sense to stop.

    However, if you find you are becoming looser with your trades and not staying in the 'trading zone' during the longer sessions then you should definitely stop when you feel that happening.

  • Quick software automation question

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    796 Views

    @simon ok mate cheers I’ll keep plugging away and see what I can work out. Really interesting software though can definitely see some potential in it 👍

  • In-Play Stat sites

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    5 Posts
    371 Views

    come on United at least make the end of the season exciting for the European places