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  • Let's smash the tennis trading in here shall we?

    17 Topics
    6k Posts

    I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

    Player Matches Won >= 0
    Category WTA-Singles
    Scope Last 10 Matches
    ✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type

    IMG_1029.png

    IMG_1031.png

    IMG_1030.png

    IMG_1032.png

    In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

    You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
    For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

  • To discuss all things cricket and golf

    13 Topics
    15k Posts

    @Fraser-cord

    Works well any decent T20 league
    Back opening team first exit 20% profit or 50% loss

    been doing this for a while

  • A Place for members to discuss potential ideas and profitable filters or ask for feedback on their ideas

    59 Topics
    1k Posts

    @Kurtis-Steven-Graham Hard to say.

    It's the actual rules that tell you what is happening.

  • Our daily pro picks

    2k Topics
    2k Posts

    No selections today

  • We'll replicate our blog posts here and give you a heads up when we do new podcasts!

    198 Topics
    362 Posts

    A few years ago I wrote a Betfair Trading bankroll managment guide for traders of all types. It is still a great article and worth reading for all traders you can [FIND IT HERE](https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need).

    However, as lots of our Football Trading and Horse Racing traders are now using set and forget strategies, I realise we also need a guide for that type of betting bankroll.

    Set and forget strategies are essentially just betting on an outcome and letting the bet run. 

    This style of Betfair trading has become more popular in recent years, the idea of sitting at a PC all day trading is not only too time consuming but also not neccessary to make money on Betfair. 

    So, hey, why not save time and effort and use straight bets to make money? I mean if it makes money who cares what type of betting it is?

    Anyway, if you are at all interesting in set and forget betting on Betfair then you need to read this guide!

     

    What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader?

    We get asked this question all the time! However, the answer is different for set and forget betting...

    The key thing you have to be aware of when placing bets with no intention of trading out is that you will lose 100% of the stake you use. 

    This is obvious but the reason I mention this is that you will have more variance than the typical trading strategy, in some cases a lot more. 

    It's simple maths really, if you lose 100% of your stake when you lose a bet your losing runs will be more impactful. 

    So the way to combat this problem is proper bankroll management! 

    Every time we bet we are risking that stake, so let's think about each bet as a BIG BET.

    Our bankroll needs to have a certain amount of BIG BETS to cover a losing run.

    Not only that we don't want one bad day to cripple our bankroll, so we need enough to be extra safe.

    How many BIG BETS would you want?

    Well in trading you can get away with 50 (2% of your bankroll 2x50=100%) because you will not lose the full stake, you will be cashing out for a profit or a loss at some point.

    However, when straight betting 50 is not enough. Imagine you have a losing streak of 10 bets, this can easily happen when betting at odds against even when betting at evens.

    Suddenly you have lost 20% of your bankroll and that could be in one day. 

    That's not a sensible staking plan.

    So how many BIG BETS do we need.

    Well it depends on the odds you are backing at. Let me explain.

    If you are generally betting at odds on maybe 1.5 or below you could probably get away with 100 big bets.

    1% of your bankroll per bet should be fine because you will win at least 66% of the time on average. 

    If you are betting at evens to 3.0 you could probably get away with 200 big bets. (0.5% of your bankroll)

    This is actually the kind of bankroll professional poker players use, they will have 200-250 buy ins behind them (so when you see a player lose their buy in on TV, it's not the big deal the broadcasters will try and tell you!).

    If you are betting at odds above 3.0 it can get tricky, you will want more big bets the higher the odds go! Maybe 500+!

     

    So Let's Talk Money! 

    All this talk of percentages is great and definitely where you should start thinking from, rather than financial amounts but I know most of you will be asking, how much money do I need to bet on Betfair?

    Firstly, if you are new to trading you should start low, go as low as possible £1 bets so you need enough money to have as many £1 big bets as you need. £100 for 100 big bets, £250 for 250 big bets and so on. 

    Then you can raise stakes as you earn money according to your percentages, so you use the same percentage per bet but increase the stake naturally as your bankroll grows. 

    So if I doubled my bankroll from £100 to £200, I would now use £2 stakes and still have 100 big bets.

    If you want to know what bankroll I recommend for pro traders it is still the same as the previous article.

    If you are placing multiple bets per day on a variety of profitable strategies £5,000-£10,000 will be a great starting point, you can easily go semi-pro at that level, however, because of the low stake percentages you are probably going to want to get that up to £20,000+ eventually.

    Although, as I always state there is no rush! 

    Remember set and forget is so easy, you just place your bets and get on with your day, so there is less pressure to make big money because you are not wasting any time where you could be doing other things.

     

    What if it goes wrong?

    My simple rule that I have been told by so many traders over the years was godsend is this:

    If I lose half my bankroll I halve my stakes. (Obviously if you are using £1 minimum this can't be done but it's not a major worry at that level, you just may need to look at a different portfolio of strategies).

    By halving our stakes we give ourselves another chance to have success and it's nearly impossible to 'bust out' and lose our whole bankroll. 

    If I am using a £5,000 bankroll and £50 stakes then if it gets to £2,500 I will reduce stakes to £25 and so on. 

    This gives you maximum bankroll protecting and you will never be the victim of a horror 'I LOST MY BANKROLL IN ONE DAY' story!

     

    One final bit of advice...

    Please test your strategies before putting money on them, don't just backtest but forward test them as you go.

    Give it 6-12 months and really get a feel for what works and what doesn't before putting serious money down! 

    The biggest mistake Betfair traders make is to bet heavily on a strategy they have not fully tested, which usually leads to disaster.

    If you have any more questions about this please do not hesitate to ask me on the forum or contact my via email [email protected]

    Be safe with your bankroll, it will become your best friend in hard times!

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Files, spreadsheets and everything else you need to get trading

    44 Topics
    2k Posts

    @Ricky-Simpson brilliant! their customer service is really good in my experience and worth contacting if unsure about things, they know far more than me about their product

  • 90 Topics
    5k Posts

    @John-Folan nice will fire it up later

  • Calling all traders......

    0 Votes
    7 Posts
    472 Views

    @luke-ridger Interesting

  • Smarkets Pro Tier - New Service?

    0 Votes
    6 Posts
    422 Views

    @martin-futter @Luke-Ridger

    All I want from the Trump campaign is to get online gambling in the states!

  • Usyk v Bellew

    0 Votes
    2 Posts
    274 Views

    @chris-watts said in Usyk v Bellew:

    This is closer than a lot of people think, Usyk is a genius, he’s not a big puncher but his movement and footwork is world class, but he only has 15 or so fights and he’s never fought anyone like Bellew, who looks fitter than ever and always seems to find a way, I fancy Bellew rounds 6 to 8.

    With Usyk trading at 1.24 there could be a reasonable/cheap lay to be had.

    Out at 1.44 for 0.7 points profit.

  • 0 Votes
    22 Posts
    2k Views

    @martin-futter .... sadly not - i wasn't THAT confident!

  • info operatività

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    554 Views
    No one has replied
  • Creating a Trading Plan

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
    277 Views
    No one has replied
  • I'll be back!

    3 Votes
    2 Posts
    306 Views
  • Lucky 15

    0 Votes
    2 Posts
    300 Views

    Never tried it - too many variables for me

  • 0 Votes
    30 Posts
    2k Views

    @martin-futter I agree, thought although it wasn't the most exciting fight AJ did well here, it was a tactical fight where he did well for it.

  • Ryan's NFL Trading

  • Which filter to choose?

    0 Votes
    20 Posts
    982 Views

    @keith-anderson said in Which filter to choose?:

    In truth, I don't know what my strike rate is. All I know is that I make money every month. I've started keeping a blog of my trades, so hopefully I'll find out more. I don't trade every game on my filter, sometimes the odds are too high and sometimes I don't like the in-play stats.

    Also, the filter is based on '3 goals or more'. There are plenty of matches that I trade that are not of that filter. I only really LTD - that is all I do. I don't get involved in horses, nfl, cricket or tennis. I also don't back or lay the goals market. I don't need to.

    What are you looking for on the in-play stats? SOT? How lively the games is?

  • George Groves v Chris Eubank Jr

    0 Votes
    8 Posts
    481 Views

    Easy money that, knew Eubank shouldn't be favourite here

  • 0 Votes
    11 Posts
    538 Views

    @martin-futter will catch up with it tonight, buzzing for it!

  • Other Podcasts

    1 Votes
    7 Posts
    457 Views

    @ryan-carruthers I have listened to that one for a couple of years.

    This one is great for BTC: https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-105-brendan-poots/

  • Terry Steers NFL

    2 Votes
    27 Posts
    2k Views

    @martin-futter said in Terry Steers NFL:

    @terry-steer said in Terry Steers NFL:

    posting for interest only

    Falcons @ Eagles under 41
    Titans @ patriots over 48

    boom and boom!

    Agree!! (Despite you sounding like Basil Brush!)

  • 24/1 Double Bet Update

    0 Votes
    4 Posts
    399 Views

    Bama wins! 4/1 winner there 🙂 essentially the double bet is now in from our 25.0 odds back and layable at 2.88. Can now hedge for a massive profit or let it run.