Realistic Expectations
-
The end of November will see me 6 months into my trading journey. Well I started back in February as a total newbie with no experience, but since June I set aside a bank and have traded using strategies I learned between February and June. In those months I just used £2 per trade until my confidence grew enough to play with some proper money. I chose an arbitrary figure as a target to grow my bank by each month. I thought 20% seemed reasonable and attainable based on my small experience, and these have been my results so far (November not quite finished yet obviously)
Jun - 9%
Jul - 53%
Aug - 20%
Sep - 18%
Oct - 2%
Nov - 6%Needles to say I’ve been disappointed with October and November. I know some people like targets and others don’t, I guess the danger with any targets is feeling disappointed like I am at the moment, but it keeps me motivated at the same time. Does anyone else in the forum have a weekly/monthly/quarterly target they aim for? Interested to hear people thoughts as always!
-
@keith-anderson yeah before trading I did thin value betting, still do it at the moment but tailing it off as trading is taking up more of my time. So I’m well used to variance, but with betting it’s usually lots of small losses then one big one, whereas with trading it’s lots of small wins. So that for me is taking some getting used to.
-
@keith-anderson Yep, I'd love to create some content for members only that helps with this
-
@ryan-carruthers said in Realistic Expectations:
@simon very interesting, the mindset of the longer term is tougher to get your head around because its a longer term view and when you start thinking OK I wasn't profitable last month but there's still a couple to go takes some getting used to.
For me I just remind myself constantly that this is a long term game, all the time!
It's like I said in the latest podcast thread. Seeing this as 'long term' is difficult. The transition has taken me longer than expected. I'm a gambler first and foremost - not a good one may I add (hence the reason I am now trading). Gamblers don't think in long term. We are risk takers. We prefer small short term gains rather than big long term gains. That's what makes learning the 'discipline' so difficult.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@simon very interesting, the mindset of the longer term is tougher to get your head around because its a longer term view and when you start thinking OK I wasn't profitable last month but there's still a couple to go takes some getting used to.
For me I just remind myself constantly that this is a long term game, all the time!
-
@ryan-carruthers yeah taking a longer term view is something I need to get into my mentality. I know it’s what I should be doing, but controlling the emotion of it is what I need to do better.
As far as breaking down the sports, I do keep all my results separate so I can analyze per startetgy per sport. At the moment I feel like I’m still learning in each one I’m trying and so would be unfair to drop one for being less profitable as I’ve still lots to learn. For example in the last couple of months I’ve really got to grips with racing more. It was my best earner in October, and doing solid in November but I wasn’t doing much prior to that. -
@simon
So I do quarterly these days! Im not too fussed about monthly I’ve got a longer term view on things even to a point now where if I’ve had shocking months at the start but the last month of the quarter is good I’ll be happy.
Those results looks good quarter by quarter and by lord over a year they’ll be smashing. Not too bad for your first year my friend!
Echo Keith’s did you break down the sports? Something I did a few years ago was break down my sports results and see where I was strongest and focused on that.
-
@martin-futter thanks Martin!
-
@janne-rusi thanks Janne! Yeah learning a lot! At this stage in the process I’m almost happy with a losing trade as long as there’s something positive I can take and learn from it. Then pissed off when you make the same mistake again
-
@keith-anderson yeah I keep it all separate, even if I have different strategies for different sports I keep that separate too then roll it all up.
-
Thanks Keith!
I know exactly why October was so bad, I found out one of my tennis lays aren’t profitable at ATP 500 events. I should have cut the cord sooner but found myself in a bit of a hole and chasing a bit so was delighted to end the month in the green.
In November I’ll have to analyze why, may just be variance. Started the month badly but for the past 2 weeks I’ve kept a trading journal and feel like I’ve been way more consistent. Only 2 weeks so again, may just be variance, but I feel like my mindset has totally changed since adopting this. I’m a lot more selective and now analyze why a trade went wrong rather than plugging it in the spreadsheet and moving on.Do you seperate your records? If I was trading tennis, football & horse racing, I would like to know how each sport / strategy was performing. I would like to know my profit / loss for each sport each month.
-
@frode-lia sounds like a good idea! So scoring yourself on how you performed, and then the money should look after itself if you’re doing the right things. Like it, cheers bud!
-
@keith-anderson said in Realistic Expectations:
Profit is profit @Simon !
What changed in October / November? Do you have a record of your trades? It could be variance, but if I was trading football then I would be slightly worried about that dip. Did you change strategy or did you change sport?
I once changed from LTD to LCS and that had a impact. When I first started to set myself daily / weekly / monthly targets - I found myself chasing a loss more. These 'trades' turned into 'gambles'.
Anyway, I think you are being too hard on yourself. You're in profit and that's a good thing.
Thanks Keith!
I know exactly why October was so bad, I found out one of my tennis lays aren’t profitable at ATP 500 events. I should have cut the cord sooner but found myself in a bit of a hole and chasing a bit so was delighted to end the month in the green.
In November I’ll have to analyze why, may just be variance. Started the month badly but for the past 2 weeks I’ve kept a trading journal and feel like I’ve been way more consistent. Only 2 weeks so again, may just be variance, but I feel like my mindset has totally changed since adopting this. I’m a lot more selective and now analyze why a trade went wrong rather than plugging it in the spreadsheet and moving on. -
@janne-rusi said in Realistic Expectations:
@simon
There's a lot of people in different financial institutions who would go bananas over 6% growth per month. Compounding interest is what makes miracles.
I do understand that you might feel disapointed as you are not hitting those +20% numbers all the time but one of the main questions you should be focused on instead numbers is that how much you are learning.
Good job from here!
exactly, to start trading and make a monthly profit for 6 straight months is incredible! you are on the right tracks @Simon
-
@simon
There's a lot of people in different financial institutions who would go bananas over 6% growth per month. Compounding interest is what makes miracles.
I do understand that you might feel disapointed as you are not hitting those +20% numbers all the time but one of the main questions you should be focused on instead numbers is that how much you are learning.
Good job from here!
-
Profit is profit @Simon !
What changed in October / November? Do you have a record of your trades? It could be variance, but if I was trading football then I would be slightly worried about that dip. Did you change strategy or did you change sport?
I once changed from LTD to LCS and that had a impact. When I first started to set myself daily / weekly / monthly targets - I found myself chasing a loss more. These 'trades' turned into 'gambles'.
Anyway, I think you are being too hard on yourself. You're in profit and that's a good thing.
-
@simon
I think you should be very very happy with those numbers after 6 month of trading. Well done.
I think goals on a daily and weekly basis have none function what so ever. (here I can plug @Ryan-Carruthers fav book, Fooled by Randomnes).
On a daily basis I have a point score system I give my self. That covers research, execution, money managment and so on. I can get a total of 30 pts per day. My goal is to hit over 25 pts every day.
