Trade Post Mortem Thread
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The aim of this thread is for any member to be able to add their trade (using the format below) to get feedback on a trade which they did which went wrong.
If people want to post these with no names then I have created a google form which if you fill it in, one of the BTC team will upload for you
Click here for the form
The thought process behind this is that as a group we can all get really granular with these trades - so we can all learn to be better traders. I have said for many years that we all trade differently and look at things differently so it would be great to get this thread firing with all traders helping each other and talking about trades and we all helping each other.
I must add that this was not my idea and was the idea of a member!
The format is......
Trade
Outcome
Reasoning
Information (What was used to make the judgement before and in play etc...) -
I could fill a couple of really boring books with all the dumb things I did in the first few years after 'discovering' that i could actually trade on betfair.
My biggest single loss ever wasn't on horses though (although when on tilt a couple of times blew my entire bankroll in a single afternoon of racing) but on the T20 World Cup cricket when England played West Indies. I had a very substantial initial wager on England, quadrupled it at the end of the England innings and then even added more after Windies lost early wickets at some stupidly low price. I am embarrassed to say that I left it all out there...didn't even bother to eliminate my liability and then watched it evaporate in the last over.
I look at that now and cringe......sheer greed and arrogance and probably a desperate need to recoup losses on some 'system' that I was staking 15-20% of my bankroll on after a few successful trades.
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@Ben-Jolley @Ryan-Carruthers @Lee-woodman thanks for the replies gents, much appreciated and some really good advice that I need to take on board.
Love the idea behind this thread btw, hope it takes off.
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@james-h An example of this is one of my strategies, FH goals. Its been my main strategy since i started trading again. I would basically lay under 0.5 first half goals on 20-25' for my selected games. Over 50% of my trades became non-trades due to early goals and i started getting annoyed at missing it so i started laying the HT draw from kick off, that way i was guaranteed a trade. I recorded it results both ways then analysed it after a month and realised that i got on more trades but i actually made less profit, so i reverted back.
Over the last month i had 94 possible trades, only 43 became trades. I checked and it was more profitable (points, £'s and even with lower liabilities) to trade these 43 in this way than trading the full 94 trades in the alternative way
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@james-h FOMO is a huge thing, i have had it (and still do in various ways). You need to find a way of sticking religiously to the plan and looking longer term with it. If you find that on a given day that all your trades are ruled out then its just one of those things, theres always tomorrow and always another trade. After a month or two id review it and see how many you are actually getting on, you may find that you are actually averaging a reasonable enough amount over the course of a month. Its hard to base things on a quiet wednesday during international break, you need to see how it works on a busy saturday aswell
If you find that you are getting drawn in after your shortlist trades are not-tradeable then walk away from your computer, watch some videos, read blogs/books etc or just do something non-trade related.....i sometimes even resort to spending time with the girlfriend in this situation
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@James-H Bonus points for being the first one, I think others do well I know they do which leads them to trade games which don't fit the criteria, the best advice is this....
There will always always be another trade, I've been around Betfair for over 9 years now and I can tell you that there is always another trade matey, so would you do this trade if you knew tomorrow there was another one that met the criteria?
If you want to still feel like you are doing something read around the subject, listen to podcasts, watch YouTube videos learn as much as you can you are still being active in your trading - it's like the greatest trader ever Warren Buffet he spends most of his days learning.
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@james-h i had the same thing during these internationals, nothing decent was hitting my filters but was so keen to trade. Tried copying other peoples trades and looking at inplay opportunities but ended up slightly down over the week. Just isn't worth it in the long term. Stick to 1 strategy and 1 filter if there is nothing to trade then so be it. This has taken me so long to understand this but slowly getting there. My god I cant wait until friday though finally some trading
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I'll kick this off then...
Halifax v Ebbsfleet - LTD on 55mins @2.12 with score at 0-0, planned to trade out when a goal was scored.
No goal was scored so it was a full loss of 1pt.
My reasoning was that Halifax had 55% possession, 8 shots and 3 on target at this stage, which fit my filter as a team that is looking reasonably likely to score. However, it hadn't met my pre-match criteria.
In hindsight, I think I picked this game because none of the 7 LTDs that I had identified actually were draws at the time, meaning I had nothing to trade. I think if I had been able to trade the games I'd originally chosen pre-match, I wouldn't have even looked at the Halifax game.Do others get the same fear of missing out? How do you cope with it and stay out of silly trades? It slightly concerns me as it feels like FOMO starts the slippery slope towards gambling addiction, and I obviously wouldn't want to find myself in a situation like that.
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