New Strategy
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I have been collecting data for over a year on a potential 2nd strategy. I originally collected the data based on a split stake strategy but have decided to post some figures below to see what other angles i could possibly review. These figures are based on the raw data, so with a little tightening of the criteria and the removal of a few leagues the SR can be improved (for example the split stake figure can be easily bumped up by another 5%)
Although i dont have the odds, my next step is to decide a few angles to pursue and do some further testing. The SR is good for the split stake, but i am also open to suggestions on other trades
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@matt-wood said in New Strategy:
@martin said in New Strategy:
@lee-woodman is this LTD first half or you place at HT?
Looking good! I'm thinking of creating a Set and Forget project we can all work on as am doing so much work on Set and Forget at the moment
Id also happily get involved with anything you might be proposing. I'm still learning though, but more than happy to do donkey work
Same applies for me
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@martin said in New Strategy:
@lee-woodman is this LTD first half or you place at HT?
Looking good! I'm thinking of creating a Set and Forget project we can all work on as am doing so much work on Set and Forget at the moment
Id also happily get involved with anything you might be proposing. I'm still learning though, but more than happy to do donkey work
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@lee-woodman yes that's what I was thinking, working with a few people one to one at the moment but it would be good to collaborate in a more general way.
What are the rough criteria you are using? Those are excellent results!
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@martin said in New Strategy:
@lee-woodman is this LTD first half or you place at HT?
Looking good! I'm thinking of creating a Set and Forget project we can all work on as am doing so much work on Set and Forget at the moment
LTD in the HT market (ie from kick off). I’d be happy to be involved in anything you look at, it can take so much time doing things individually so done sort of collaboration could work
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@lee-woodman is this LTD first half or you place at HT?
Looking good! I'm thinking of creating a Set and Forget project we can all work on as am doing so much work on Set and Forget at the moment
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@lee-woodman said in New Strategy:
Just a bit of an update after tracking odds for a couple of weeks. I have decided to concentrate on HT LTD and O2.5 set and forget - both from Kick Off. Ive looked at various other markets and tried to find a good balance.
HT LTD
Winners - 404/629 = 64.2% (required lay odds 2.79)
Tested Odds - Average 2.43
O2.5
Winners - 398/629 = 63.2% (required back odds 1.58)
Tested Odds - Average 1.89, Average of winners 1.80
I like the margin in both of these trades, they dont require a huge SR and dont take much effort to execute. I am going to back the O2.5 for 1pt and LTD HT for 1pt (a separate bank for these so much lower pt price). I will start a new thread in the next couple of days for these and my SH tradesLee, I like these figures and they seem pretty good results wise.LTD and OV2.5 goals are two good strategies, especially where the trade is an 'obvious; one but with the odds too high at K/O, this would suite ideally.
Thanks for sharing it
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Just a bit of an update after tracking odds for a couple of weeks. I have decided to concentrate on HT LTD and O2.5 set and forget - both from Kick Off. Ive looked at various other markets and tried to find a good balance.
HT LTD
Winners - 404/629 = 64.2% (required lay odds 2.79)
Tested Odds - Average 2.43O2.5
Winners - 398/629 = 63.2% (required back odds 1.58)
Tested Odds - Average 1.89, Average of winners 1.80I like the margin in both of these trades, they dont require a huge SR and dont take much effort to execute. I am going to back the O2.5 for 1pt and LTD HT for 1pt (a separate bank for these so much lower pt price). I will start a new thread in the next couple of days for these and my SH trades
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Appreciate the advice from everyone! I think the best options are below, I will test these for a month or so to gain a clearer picture of each market and see what impact a goal/no goal has at various points in the half. I should be able to gain a clear picture of the patterns of the markets and see which I prefer. Once I have average wins/losses then I can roughly project backwards to see which could be most profitable and also tweak the criteria to suit the category. I already have a very good idea of O1.5 prices and the split stake P/L so after checking these I will have some decent options to consider:
- LTD in HT market at KO (either to trade out or to let it run)
- Backing O3.5 at KO (with a view of trading out at say 20/30)
- Backing O2.5 at KO as a set and forget (if my winners can average over 1.65ish then should be profitable
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If you are looking for a first half Goal and early I would use the first half markets. But they don't always have a lot of liquidity in them. So will depending if you will run it or want to trade out. Depending on your stake
Could always track the over 4.5 etc markets as they will low odds to lay the under.
E.g in the western Sydney Vs Perth match this morning it went from 1.07 to 1.22 when the goal on the 25 minute mark went in. Game finished 1-0.
I've looked a little at these markets as sometimes my under 2.5 seen a lot of early goals and bite me a bit. Only started to trade them again.
But looking at the h2h there been some high scoring games that might have impacted the odds a little?
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@lee-woodman said in New Strategy:
@stuart-capstick That’s not a bad shout actually. Whilst I’ve done a little in the FH O0.5 market, I’ve never really used this market but could be a good way to enter from KO. I think that’s one to test to work out some sort of odds ranges and entry and exit points
really good spot
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@stuart-capstick That’s not a bad shout actually. Whilst I’ve done a little in the FH O0.5 market, I’ve never really used this market but could be a good way to enter from KO. I think that’s one to test to work out some sort of odds ranges and entry and exit points
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@dan-mackinnon said in New Strategy:
@lee-woodman are you planning on using this strategy alongside your current one or is it completely separate?
I want to use this as a second strategy to my main one so whilst I will treat it independently I have to be aware that there could be some overlap if the same game appears on my SH filter, and therefore stake accordingly to not get screwed by a double loss!
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@lee-woodman said in New Strategy:
@ryan This is the breakdown of goals in the first time (a total of 812 games)
1-10 - 197
11-20 - 161
21-30 - 125
31-45 - 127So 44% of games had a goal in the first 20' and though im not sure how to take advantage of this, it seems a high figure!
LTD in the HT market
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@lee-woodman are you planning on using this strategy alongside your current one or is it completely separate?
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@lee-woodman That's a huge % isn't it in the first 20mins! I wonder what the odds on the 1.5 would be at the start and to trade out.
Crazy.
I like your thinking on the strategy keep it simple so it works long time.
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@ryan This is the breakdown of goals in the first time (a total of 812 games)
1-10 - 197
11-20 - 161
21-30 - 125
31-45 - 127So 44% of games had a goal in the first 20' and though im not sure how to take advantage of this, it seems a high figure!
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@ryan said in New Strategy:
@lee-woodman I get so excited when I see you've posted and even more so when it's new strategy.
Solid looking numbers the over 1.5 looks very interesting, looks very much like there's early goals as well? (812 games but 242 have been 0-0 by 30 mins?) Have I got that right there's 570 with a goal in the first 15 mins?
Thanks Ryan. So 339 out of 812 were still 0-0 at 30’. I can maybe test 2 strategies at once. I like the SS but I’m trying to explore whether there’s a strategy which requires a lower SR, so I wouldn’t need to maintain 80%. Maybe if the early goals figure looks good to you I could maybe look at backing O3.5 and cashing out at say 30’ if no goal, or backing O2.5 at KO and cashing out at HT
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@lee-woodman said in New Strategy:
I have been collecting data for over a year on a potential 2nd strategy. I originally collected the data based on a split stake strategy but have decided to post some figures below to see what other angles i could possibly review. These figures are based on the raw data, so with a little tightening of the criteria and the removal of a few leagues the SR can be improved (for example the split stake figure can be easily bumped up by another 5%)
Although i dont have the odds, my next step is to decide a few angles to pursue and do some further testing. The SR is good for the split stake, but i am also open to suggestions on other trades
Lee they are impressive stats, logical percentages too when you think about it.
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@lee-woodman I get so excited when I see you've posted and even more so when it's new strategy.
Solid looking numbers the over 1.5 looks very interesting, looks very much like there's early goals as well? (812 games but 242 have been 0-0 by 30 mins?) Have I got that right there's 570 with a goal in the first 15 mins?
