Paranoia or Perfection?
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Ok, so I want to talk about the Betfair graphs and looking at the amount of money either being backed or lay’d on an event in particular the over goals markets or the draw. I’m religiously checking the graphs to help determine whether to get involved in a trade sometimes. I’ve seen many times now lots of money matched on an over goal or LTD and then within minutes sometimes seconds a goal comes. My question is who is making these bets? They obviously have thousands in the bankroll so I’m guessing pro’s? Are they actually at some of the games or is it just a considence goals seem to come after s**t loads of money has been matched? Just had an example in a Switzerland game for one more goal. Saw a bet of about £20k going on (huge spike) few seconds later a goal comes. I’m really curious as to what is going on?
I couldn’t view the Switzerland game so
I don’t know if it was just an opportunity in play (dangerous free kick and they were taking a punt) -
Interesting topic.
One thing i have mentioned in past couple of weeks is the possibility of going to a few domestic limited over games this season and maybe doing a bit of 'courtsiding'. Nobody responded to my comment, which led me to investigate via the Internet, and found that it is NOT illegal in UK to do so.
So, my thought is ... 1) Batter skies the ball in the air towards, say, fine leg, where there is a fielder - this may take 2/3 secs to get caught - if you were to press the Lay/Back button at the 1 second mark, then you will likely have a 1-2 sec advantage over the Betfair delay.
Does this sound feasible? or has anybody ever done this? -
@alastair-todd said in Paranoia or Perfection?:
@martin said in Paranoia or Perfection?:
@alastair-todd thought I banned them all
Are you mad?! Once the greatest team in Europe (although obviously they've had few problems since then).before my time all of that
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@martin said in Paranoia or Perfection?:
@alastair-todd thought I banned them all
Are you mad?! Once the greatest team in Europe (although obviously they've had few problems since then). -
@alastair-todd thought I banned them all
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@martin said in Paranoia or Perfection?:
@oliver-preen don't tell me you are an Ipswich fan?!
What's wrong with that Martin?
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Uh oh!!!!
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So, I was at the Ipswich v Lincoln game last night and I'd say its very hard to beat the Betfair bet delay to snipe a goal before the markets suspend. It's easer to scalp unders when live at a game.
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@chris-king yeah it defo goes on
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@martin it has to be one or the other doesn’t it, as there is now way to predict the future. I’ve heard of courtsiders in tennis. I think there is a book out there written by a former courtsider which must be a really good read. I forget the title.
I know it’s heavily frowned upon by WTA/ATP at tennis events though although not illegal, yet there have even been arrests i think? Or at least bans being served. It still goes on. At a lot of tennis matches you’d stick out like a sore thumb potentially, but not at a football match. Call me paranoid but rather than match fix as is often claimed, there could easily be a delay in the feed arranged in some circumstances in order to take advantage of any events?
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This is an interesting point and probably wise to do. It makes sense and when i think about it, is surely a good tool used with your other research/pre match/in-play stats etc but maybe not something to completely rely on.
I rarely look if I’m honest, however i did on one of my selections last night - Chilean Primera Division Cobresal v Universidad Catolica.
I was laying the draw from kick off with the intent of exiting the trade after a home goal, a decent green on an away goal or two away goals exiting at half time if the half ended in a draw.
Away scored first giving me a green of 10% of my stake. Stayed in. Home scored, fine, staying in still. Home then took the lead giving me a green of 15% of my stake. It was a quick couple of goals for the home team. I found that odd.
I don’t claim to be an expert but I’ve layed the draw a lot of times and something didn’t seem right. I forget the teams match odds but home were the clear favourite and the LTD odds were 3.5.
I was happy with the position after the first goal scored by away, but considering the home favourite reacted strongly and took the lead back within the first 45 i did expect a better swing and a decent green. I know I’ve had plenty of similar trades in the past with the home side taking the lead at that point 1-0, 2-1 etc resulting in a decent winning trade.
It just felt odd as the odds weren’t moving at all. So i started to look at the graphs and, as i said I’m no expert but it it was clear to see that there was a great amount of money in comparison to the rest of the match, put on right before the goal. As if away had been layed heavily.
I’m not sure if that explains the draw odds being fairly static or not, but they way they .behaved was not typical.
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its peter webb with his soccer mystic
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@oliver-preen probably people with a live no delay feed or live at the games, they are called 'courtsiders' in tennis.
