Over 1.5 Goals Set & Forget
-
This is a slightly adapted set and forget over 1.5 goals filter originally from @martin-walker. It is still being tested and refined so please do not put any real money on it yet.
The strategy is simply backing Over 1.5 goals at the start of a match, and letting the bet run. Matches with odds under 1.25 do not qualify.
You can download this strategy by importing this data -
0_1645113434959_filter-settings (3).txtFollow the instructions in this video on how to do that -
Important: Tick 'restrict to current season' and 'exclude playoffs'.
You can view the results here (6th tab at the bottom of sheet named MO1.5): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=1511053721
Leagues will need to be refined as that is still in process.
-
I had a few 2's and one 3. Longest winning streaks are 34 and a 35 and a few at 20+
Its important to look at losing streaks, not just in terms of successive losses but in terms of the overall downturn over a certain period. So you may only have 2 losses in a row, but 8 losses in 16 is probably worse
-
@dan-mackinnon probably 3 ish, cant quite remember
It had over 1000 games at one point until i tried playing with the spreadsheet and messed it right up
-
@dan-mackinnon My o1.5 test has seen 1 streak of 3 losing games in 180 total. A couple of 2s but thats it. Longest win streak is 19 currently, been a 16 as well.
-
@lee-woodman @Martin-Walker what are you looking at in terms of worst performing streaks? Has anyone had over 2 consecutive games? What about worst run? Looking at my data it was 8/16 before hitting a winning run again.
-
@martin-walker said in Over 1.5 Goals Set & Forget:
This was created as a shg filter initially used all last year. When the set and forget thread came up i remembered that this used to show promise as over 1.5
Mine is used for LCS and ive been collecting data since August 20 but ive recently looked at it as an O1.5 from KO and it looks very good. I have all the criteria in the spreadsheet too so can see the effect of tightening any of the criteria(s)
-
I think this is one of the best things to come from Martin's project here.
We are probably all working in similar areas but with slightly different approaches. With us all being able to see a giant overview like this it will spark ideas in our own systems that may have been too subtle for us to see as an individual. This has definitely been the case for me.
Upshot being, hopefully, that we will all improve and become profitable or more consistently profitable in the long run.
-
This was created as a shg filter initially used all last year. When the set and forget thread came up i remembered that this used to show promise as over 1.5
-
@lee-woodman said in Over 1.5 Goals Set & Forget:
Ive just noticed this filter is very similar to one i have a lot of data for, going back to August last year......its what i base my SH goal filter on. The criteria i have recorded is as follows (although i use tighter criteria for actual trades):
Overall Goals Per Match >= 3.0
Overall H2 Goals Per Match >= 1
Home FT % >= 80
Home Scored by FT >= 60
Away Scored by FT >= 60That's very similar to my SHG filter as well
Overall Goals Per Match >= 3.0
Home Scored H2 >= 80
Away Scored H2 >= 60This filter was taken from Matt Wood's data he shared with me which goes back to Feb 2021
I've amended a similar O1.5 filter based on 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 less than 10%, Overall Goals Per Match >= 3
-
Ive just noticed this filter is very similar to one i have a lot of data for, going back to August last year......its what i base my SH goal filter on. The criteria i have recorded is as follows (although i use tighter criteria for actual trades):
Overall Goals Per Match >= 3.0
Overall H2 Goals Per Match >= 1
Home FT % >= 80
Home Scored by FT >= 60
Away Scored by FT >= 60 -
@gary-brown do you mean Martin's Over 1.5? If so scope I have is 10 games, restrict to current season and exclude playoffs all ticked.
Odds must be 1.25+
Leagues:
A-League
Austria - Bundesliga and 2 Liga
Belgium - Juliper Pro League and 1B Pro League
Bolivia
Brazil Serie A
China
Croatia 1 HNL
Czech 1 Liga
Denmark Superliga - 1st Division
England up to and inc League 2
France 1&2
Germany 1, 2 &3
Iceland - Pepsi
Italy - A&B
Japan J1&J2
Netherland 1&2
Norway - Eliteserien & Obos-ligaen
Paraguay 1
Poland - Ekstraklasa, Division 1
Scotland Prem, Champ
Singapore 1
Korea 1&2
Spain 1&2
Sweden - Allsvenskan & Supretten
Swiss 1&2
Turkey Super League
USA MLS -
Hi guys just copied the filter for Matts over 1.5 filter.
Was wondering do i need to change anything on the filter to get the same games.
For example any leagues deleted? Scope? Inplay matches only etc.Also with the filter are the odds in the result sheet the odds at the start of the match. At KO
must admit form looking at the results its very impressive filter. A few of the games which were loses seem to have at least one goal in as well. So if trading out was part of the strategy after a goal i guess it would also be very profitable.
-
@keith-anderson yeah its probably in the region of 3 or 4 for me aswell
-
@martin said in Over 1.5 Goals Set & Forget:
@martin-walker still early in testing but I like the look of it so far, that said 6 losses in a row would wipe all profit so can't take anything for granted yet!
Over two years the most losses I've ever had in a row is 4. It's only occurred once. Still, found it hard to take!
-
@martin-walker still early in testing but I like the look of it so far, that said 6 losses in a row would wipe all profit so can't take anything for granted yet!
-
Not bad, im not even using it myself at the moment. Might have to re look into it
