Lay The Draw First Half Only
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Evening all. I was just wondering if anyone lays the draw in the first half only, using the match odds? As in only trading the first half. I’ve been testing it a little using a filter of mine that I’ve found returns a 76-77% strike rate of there being a FHG. The risk reward seems pretty good so far. Anyone else taking this approach?
What I’ve been doing is potentially staying in until HT then exiting the trade.
Home or favourite score, exit if profit is good or stay in for another goal or slight increase in profit if score doesn’t change.
Away/dog score, stay in until half time, again to see if a second goal is scored or score remains the same giving a small green or in some cases a small red.
If home/favourite equalise, stay in and take the loss at HT or exit there and then.
What can and has happened is the favourite take the lead so we can exit with a profit, or market anticipation of them taking the lead prevents the odds from shooting out too much keeping a lid on the red - as there is the whole second half to go still.
We exit on HT if no goal still leaving us with an acceptable red, not a scary red. -
@simji said in Lay The Draw First Half Only:
Have you tried using O2.5 market? If your looking to get out at HT the loss might not be as high. Plus it gives you options to stay in for that second goal without the worry about draw taking red
I haven’t no, but the reason being is that goal markets are more volatile in terms of if there is no goal, the odds drift out more quickly that the draw odds if there is no goal. The higher the overs goal market, the further it will drift out if there is no goal. Draw markets don’t drift as quickly in comparison.
With the O2.5G if the first goal doesn’t come until the end of the first half, if you’re single staking from kick off i expect that’s not going result in a great profit. I have dabbled with all markets using small stakes at times, but at a guess i think the market may just return the to around your entry price for a scratch, maybe even leave you in the red still.
If you got an early goal then you’d definitely be in profit as you definitely would with 2 goals. But we’d be relaying on either of those events happening for each selection. A split stake approach on O2.5G entering at KO and again on 20-30 mins could work nicely though and then exit when there is a goal.
With laying the draw on match odds and exiting at HT, we are mainly relying on one event taking place - there being a team in the lead by HT which keeps it simple, the later the goal comes, the better. At the same time we’re also minimising losses on losing trades which I’ve personally found to be a real Achilles heel.
If its a draw at HT we shouldn’t be losing heavy proportions of stake as the odds wont have come in too much because there is still the second half for that one event to happen and invariably can recover that loss with 1 to 2 winning trades.
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@matt-wood thanks! I will. If it continues well like this I’ll link the spreadsheet. Will continue testing.
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@chris-king great work, keep me updated on how it goes!
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@martin 77 matches so far. Mostly using the HT market.
The FHG strike rate comes from a SHG filter test. I decided I’d log if there was a FHG while i was at it. The 76-77% strike rate has been consistent over the 366 matches tested on that SHG filter.
So then i felt i should explore markets to exploit that FHG strike rate as I really want to create a decent and simple FH strategy.
I’ve found the FHG markets are tricky. They’re attractive because of the potential profits, but the loses often wipe out the gains from what I’ve found.
I thought about HT and FT match odds and FT O1.5G exiting at HT and LTD markets.
I started testing laying the HT draw both by exiting after a goal or letting it run until HT as a set and forget.
By 61 matches, each were on equal profit of +5.3. Both are quite volatile though as loses can wipe out chunks of profit.I think the better way to handle the HT draw would be to exit on 40 mins if no goal to prevent from bigger loses as the chances of there being a goal seem to drop off sharply at 40 mins. Trouble is, the market is ending so if you want to cash out you often find you can’t. So maybe even 38-39 mins would be better.
However I wanted to stabilise the strategy somehow without the need of having a fiddly exit strategy so tried the FT draw market.
I remembered when i first started getting in to trading football all i did was lay the draw although I just wasn’t able to get my head around getting out of losing trades early enough which really dented my profits.
I remembered that at HT on the FT draw market I’d always still have plenty of stake left so as i only want to trade the first half here this could work well with my filter. The point being i need the losing trades to cause minimal damage. It doesn’t matter what happens in the second half.
I’ve done 9 trades using FT draw and all have won which is pleasing obviously but i know losses will come, but in the matches where the goal comes late the red doesn’t seem to be heading much over 50% of the stake by HT if that in some cases and this is when we exit on a loss.
When the green on a winning trade ranges between 25 to 65/70% of stake(65/70% if you get two goals) on the strike rate i think it could be good. Time will tell. -
@chris-king how many matches have you tested?
You could lay the draw in the HT market, which would mean you win full bet if not drawing at HT
