When to Green Up and when to let the Trade ride?
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As somebody who is very new to trading I am sticking to my Entry and Exit Points very rigidly; however, last night's England Women vs Norway Women raises an interesting question - should I Green Up or should I let the Trade run. I hit the over 2.5 Goals market and then cashed out for a profit, likewise for the 4.5 Goals and 5.5 Goals markets. However, had I let the Trades run, I would have seen much bigger profits. With hindsight, I am sure I could have traded this game much better and see it as a missed opportunity.
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@richard-etherington so what's the rationale for the over 4.5 and 5.5 markets? What does your long term data suggest is the most profitable, letting them run or to exit?
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@dj-reid said in When to Green Up and when to let the Trade ride?:
@richard-etherington what strategy where you using for this?
@dj-reid given that my pre match research indicates the likelihood that a goal will be scored, taking into account previous 5 games and bookies odds for over 1.5 goals; also looking at the tournament as a whole where there have been no games so far without a goal and up until this match, only one match with only one goal, I made make my selections on that basis.
Looking for minimum odds of 1.35 and waiting for the first instance of attacking play being demonstrated, I drip feed my stake in 4 equal parts at entry price followed by 0.5, 1 and 2 points above the entry price.
My exit criteria are either a goal is scored and I cash out for a profit or we reach 70 minutes without a goal being scored at which point I exit for a loss.
The strike rate has been as high as 75%, but, on previous successes, I upped my stakes for the Finland v Denmark game yesterday and came a cropper; I think I need to rethink the exit criteria, but other than that i am happy at my first efforts.
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This post is deleted!
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@richard-etherington this video might help explain my thinking
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@richard-etherington I try and follow three very simple rules to maintain my discipline.
Rule 1 - Have a plan
Rule 2 - Stick to the plan
Rule 3 - Follow rule 2P
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@richard-etherington what strategy where you using for this?
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Stick to the process in the long run - if it says green up on a goal then do so although instead of taking the profit why not remove the liability giving yourself a free bet if its early enough
