ELO Set and Forget Strategies

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This filter can be a little complicated.

Now if you just take the raw data all games regardless of ELO and odds, you could lay the away team under all circumstances and return a profit of 564.1 over 553 games. Which is not a bad return the average lay odds are 3.62 with a strike rate of 75% win.

Now where it becomes complicated to try and make a higher return. If you exclude the odds range of 2.12 to 2.48 on home teams and lay the away teams in this circumstance it becomes an 80% strike rate with average lay odds of 3.61.
This is based on 273 games and returns 854.11, you could also back all of the home teams which returns 239.43 on a 47% strike rate with average odds of 2.39.

Obviously it is still a very small sample size so would not like anyone to trade anything at this stage.

+100 ELO has very small amount of data but at present the trend seems to be backing the away team, but again not enough data to make any judgements.

I will post my data on the forum so people can play around with it if they notice anything I haven't noticed or @Martin as we have both been looking at the data.

I also have a home ELO filter but not so many selections on that one as yet so no worthwhile update on that one.

Any questions please ask.

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I will post an update in next few days. Just a little busy at the moment.

Martin

@chris-osborne I started in November so should be fine for data but thanks for offering. Any angles come up for you?

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Thanks, I've got data going back to December on Ratings and Odds, I'll put in a presentable format and pass onto you if it will help