@Shannon-Townsend Jan update... just trading LTD when sitting watching or studying stats... 8 pts profit in Jan.

It is dull but i have to remember i am doing this for profit and not just fun.

Hi all, update for January. I have had an unexpected issue with my car and a holiday to pay for so had to withdraw my bank so i havn't traded this month, i have been recording the results and also looking at other systems i have been paper trading. I will probably start again in March with a £200 bank and build it up again from there hopefully.
Good job i didn't trade as the BTTS i was going to implement would have lost over £200 , and the injury time goal would have lost just over £200 and the only system was good was the new back the home team which would have brought back the deficit as would have won nearly £250.
On the other paper trading systems some very promising early positives in a BTTS at HT if 0-0 and Laying Under 0.5 Half 2 goals will update soon

Lay Under 1.5:

46aaf180-f8dc-48f1-b285-f8c4721be5ea-image.png

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

I have a similar one, these are my settings:

1b96ccaa-04a5-45e3-a62c-7e32e6f665f0-image.png

I don't bother with the "Sport Specific" ones, and more often than not it trades out for profit after the 1st goal, provided its early enough.

@Adam Fantastic, thanks very much! 🙂

@Shanice-Jackson Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

Happy New Year!

Watched the videos — really good stuff. Had a 7-hour car journey so I smashed through the podcasts as well, some of them more than once.

I’ve been trading LTD and FHG using 2% of the bank and after just two trades this morning I’m already not far off doubling my original bankroll.

I’m big on stats and the software just makes everything feel smoother and easier to manage. I’m pretty strict with discipline too — some days one bet hit the target and that’s it, I was done for the day.

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Adam thanks Adam ok will do

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@Mark-Burrows great work! To answer your questions re: high scoring leagues in my experience off the top of my head, it can vary

Netherlands, especially the second division
Bolivia
Belguim
Norway
Sweden
Australia
MLS
Denmark
China

@allan-poulsen Hi Allan, I've been running a pre match set & forget strategy here for under 2.5 goals which is delivering +22pts over 138 trades so far.

under 2.5.txt

@Adam said in TODAYS BUDGET AND NEW TAXES:

It seems horse racing won't be hit quite as hard, but only because the Horserace Betting Levy already exists:

A new rate of General Betting Duty will be introduced for general bets made remotely (for example online) from 1 April 2027. The remote rate of 25% will apply to all remote betting other than remote bets on UK horseracing which will remain unchanged, in line with land based betting, in recognition that operators contribute 10% towards the statutory Horserace Betting Levy, resulting in an existing de-facto 25% rate for bets on UK horse races

There will be indirect effects though - less sponsorship from bookies, less marketing, fewer bonuses etc.

Casinos are being hit the hardest:

The new duty rate of 40% will apply for accounting periods that begin on or after 1 April 2026 and will be chargeable on profits on remote gaming from that date onwards.

But don't worry, you can avoid remote betting by having a weekend away and betting at the venue instead. Then you just have to pay an extra 3p per mile for driving your EV there and a tourism tax on your Airbnb or hotel.

If you're lucky enough to get a win, make sure you immediately spend it and don't put it in your bank account, or you'll pay an extra 2% tax on any savings you have!

This government will probably tax us for oxygen intake in the next budget!

@Darran-Padley there's no definitive wrong or right way to trade or bet these games but the best way to find out is to forward test them, using small stakes - I'd stick to one approach for say a couple hundred results and see what you find. You can look to re-assess and adjust your approach after you have a fair idea of how it all works and whether or not it suits you (most important factor of all).