@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Lay Under 1./Under 2.5:

e3b01707-57df-431b-9cc4-65f37b15e1cb-image.png

2/2 in the end. 1 was postponed and the others were out of odds range.

Evening , update for July 26. Still paper trading for another couple of months until i am really confident i have strategies that have real potential. All based on £10 liability stakes and with the 2% commission taken off

System 1- Lay under 2.5 goals for 1st half (1.40 odds below)
Trades 33, Won 9, Lost 24, s/rate 27.27% Profit £120.42
Results since Jan 26- Trades 354, won 60, lost 294, s/rate 16.95% profit £380.06

System 2- Back Home at k/o (odds 3.0-3.50)
July - trades 10, won 2, lost 5 , s/r 20% lost £34.43
total recorded since August 25, Trades 203, won 68,lost 135, s/r 33.50% profit £130.20

System 3- Back 1st half goal on 40mins( if no goal 30-39mins)
July - Trades 13, won 2, lost 11, s/rate 15.38% lost £74.66
Total recorded since Jan 26- Trades 210, won 54, lost 156, s/r 25.71% profit £209.58

System 4- BTTS ON 15MINS ODDS 1.60+
July - Trades 56, won 27,lost 29, s/rate 48.21% Lost £61.37
Total trades since May26- Trades 156, won 84,lost 72, s/rate 53.85% Lost £35.29

System 5- Lay away side if takes lead
July 26- Trades 10, won 5, lost 5, s/rate 50% Lost £14.54
Trades since April 26- Trades 77, won 40, lost 37, s/rate 51.95% Lost £7.32

System 6- BACK 1-1 FT CS ( Check league pos and h2h 20%+)
July 26, Trades 13, won 1, lost 12, s/r 7.69% Lost £63.16
Total trades since Nov 25- Trades 415, won 59, lost 356, s/r 14.22% Profit £154.18

System 7 - Back 1-0 FT CS VERSION Q
July 26- Trades 5 , Won 1, lost 4, s/r 20% Profit £7.09
Total trades since Feb26, Trades 58, won 11,lost 47,s/rate 18.97% profit £237.96

System 8 - Back over 2.5 goals ft version B( 2.0+ odds check h2h 50%plus)
July 26- Trades 24, won 11, lost 13, s/rate 45.83% Profit £9.55
Total trades since jan26- Trades 1083, won 500,lost 583,s/r 46.17% Profit £315.36

System 9 - Back over 1.5 FIRST HALF GOALS ( 2.0+ ODDS)
July 26- Trades 17, won 8, lost 9, s/rate 47.04% profit £36.02
Total trades since March 26- 47, won 23,lost 24, s/r 48.94% profit £101.31

system 10 - Back AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS
July 26, Trades 42, won 2, lost 40,s/r 4.76% Lost £365.70
Total trades since April 152, win 16, lost 136,s/r 10.53% Lost £188.90

System 11- Injury time goal version B( Last 5 games )
July 26- Trades 26, won 5, lost 21, s/rate 19.23% Lost £46.64
Trades since Feb26- Trades 298, won 84, lost 214,s/r 28.19% profit £717.79

System 12- Injury time goal last 10 matches
July 26- Trades 13, won 1,lost 12,s/r 7.69% Lost £82.29
Total trades since Jan25- Trades 285,won 78,lost 207,s/r 27.37% profit £764.34

System 13- BACK OVER 1.5 HALF 2 GOALS ( 2.0+ ODDS CHECK H2H 50%+)
July 26- Trades 5 , won 3, lost 2 .s/rate 60% profit £12.92
Total trades since jan26- Trades 52,won 28,lost 24,s/r 53.85% profit £59.45

System 14- Back the Draw at K/o Version W
July26- Trades 6, won 3, lost 4, s/rate 33.33% profit £4.10
Total trades since Feb26- Trades 132, won 35,lost 97,s/rate 26.51% profit £188.56

System 15- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 (ODDS 3.0+)
July 26- Trades 18,won 6, lost 12, s/rate 33.33% Profit £31.90
Total trades since Jan26- Trades 393, won 124, lost 269 , s/r 31.55% profit £479.81

System 16- BACK THE DRAW FOR THE 1ST HALF ( ODDS 2.0+)
July26- Trades 9, won 6, lost 3, s/rate 66.67% profit £45.46
Total trades since March 26- Trades 68,won 37,lost 31,s/rate 54.41% profit £148.41

System 17- Back over 3.5 goals FT on 15mins if 0-0( odds 3.0+)
July 26- Trades 25, won 7, lost 18, s/rate 28% Profit £9.63
Total trades since June 26- Trades 33, won 10,lost 23,s/rate 30.30% Profit £22.36

System 18- New for July 26- Back 2-1 FT CS VERSION A( CHECK ELO HIGHER HOME)
July26- Trades 10, won 3, lost 7, s/rate 30% profit £147.56

System 19- New for July 26- Back goal for 1st half on 36mins( if no goal 30-35mins) based on lay odds of 1.45
July 26- Trades 65, won 22, lost 43, s/rate 35.87% profit £49.27

System 20 - New July 26- BACK AOS FT HOME AT K/O(CHECK ELO HIGHER) 3.50+ ODDS

July 26- Trades 28, won 5, lost 23, s/rate 17.86% profit £12.06

So plenty of systems over viewing in the hope that i may start trading at the beginning of October maybe.

Also been spending a bit of time of the new football software which i am really liking the look of. Are we going to be able to use both systems or will this one close soon ?

@Adam thanks so much for the reply Adam, congratulations on the stunning new software.

@Richard-Futter easy money well done!

@Robert-Horton Possibly, I'm not sure if they have an integration for TPD. You may need to ask BFBM.

Tennis Trading for a 10-Year-Old Part 7: The Complete Trading Plan

Now let's put everything together.

Imagine you are learning to ride a bicycle.

You don't try tricks on day one.

You learn the basics first.

The article says the same thing.

Step 1

Choose a good match.

Look for:

✓ Similar skill levels

✓ Competitive match

✓ Good liquidity

✓ Chance of service breaks

Avoid:

✗ Huge favourites

✗ Very low odds favourites

✗ Poor liquidity

Step 2

Pick Only 2 or 3 Entry Points

Do not trade every score.

The article specifically recommends focusing on a few situations.

Examples:

15-15

15-30

0-30

Learn those first.

Become comfortable.

Master them.

Step 3

Enter The Trade

Place your back or lay position.

Before the next point starts.

Now wait.

Step 4

Watch The Next Point

This is important.

You are not predicting the whole match.

You are mostly trading the next point.

If the point goes your way:

Great.

Take profit.

Or continue if the next score creates another strong setup.

Step 5

Cut Losses Quickly

This is where beginners struggle.

The article repeats this idea many times.

If the point goes against you:

Exit.

Take the small loss.

Move on.

Do not hope.

Do not pray.

Do not argue with the market.

Just exit.

Step 6

Hedge

After the trade finishes:

Green up.

Lock in profit.

Reset.

Look for the next opportunity.

The Biggest Mistake Beginners Make

Beginners often think:

"I need to be right every time."

Wrong.

Professional traders know they will lose many trades.

The goal is:

Lose small.

Win bigger.

Repeat.

The Entire Strategy In One Paragraph

Find score situations where a break of serve might happen.

Enter trades where the possible profit is larger than the possible loss.

If the next point goes against you, exit immediately.

If it goes your way, take profit or continue when the next score creates even more pressure.

Repeat this process many times during the match while protecting your money with small losses and disciplined exits.

That is the entire strategy explained as simply as possible.

I have this problem with the French Open - no odds data in the stats

six winnings in a row - WOPS

Cheers

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

f = (((b-1)*p) – (1-p)) / (b-1)

Where:

f = fraction of your bank roll to stake b = current available betting odds for selection p = true probability of winning

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

f = (((4-1) * 0.3) - (1-0.3)) / (4-1) f = 0.0667 stake = 0.0667 * 1000 = £66.70

@Ryan I would have cashed out when the underdog scored for a very small loss and that would have meant a profitable day 🙂

My new manta is "protect you bank" which is helping with discipline.

@Chris-King very interested in your selection filters. So what angle do you trade using your filters. I can see that you are identifying a strong underdog. Are you looking to back the dog pre match and hope they make a fast start and win the 1st set?

@Simon-Hardy-0:

To find the higher ranked player, filter on:
Player -> Total -> Rank -> less than -> Total for opposition

The problem is you can't then do "price for this player" unfortunately. You can filter on the BF prices via Betfair -> Odds but only referencing specific selections.

If you have the "BF Prices" tab open in the main view, filter on the rank as above and then click each match in the filter results table, you should be able to narrow it down pretty quick.

Cheers fella

Not updated for a while but LTD still going in right direction just slow due to kids and life in general meaning i am busy when most trades are happening but the ones i catch seem to be generating small profit.

have just started (paper) trading half dobs on the horse racing and if this works then that would be amazing as i am buy my computer all day for these... we will see.

@Lee-Greener No worries, we'll disable the non-scope version of that strategy rule in a future update (like we do with "horse position") as it's literally impossible to use to backtest an upcoming race!

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?