MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
-
Thought it was time for me to follow in the footsteps of others and start my own personal trading blog to help me track where i am going right or wrong ,and hopefully have some feedback from you guys regards to any improvements i can make.
I have had some personally issues i have been dealing with over the last couple of months but feel in a much better place now. During this period it has allowed me to try to change my gambling habits and i feel much more controlled now. So now is the time for me to be try and be part again of this fantastic forum and bounce ideas off each other again.
I have been trading the last couple of weeks on greyhound racing ( i know not everyone's cup of tea) in the evening which so far on the strategy i am working on seems to be paying dividends for the last 2 weeks i have been doing the system.
I have also a few football strategies i am working on , the best i feel will be ltd , back over 1.5 goals at ht and the late goal strategies. These three football systems i believe with a few tweaks here and there will be good systems.
The way i trade now is i don't lay odds above 3.0 anything above effects my mindset . On the ltd i think i may need some advice please i was going in around the 60min mark when odds are below 2.38 and then split staking the lays on 70 and 85mins . What i am finding though especially yesterday that there are a lot of goal scored between 45-60mins . When people trade the ltd do they do 100% stake at half time irrespective of the odds and if so what is the max odds they go for or do you split stake ? It is great the system when you get a 88th min winner but will the matches that have goal between 45-60mins profits outweigh this ? -
Update for June, i was away for a few days in Kosovo so missed some matches. But considerably less matches on the filters this month, due to be the summer leagues , some of which have been suspended also during the world cup( Swedish , Norwegian and south american leagues, also i find a lot of the european summer leagues don't match my criteria as there is no edge in the odds as they are underpriced. Here is the results for systems still looking promising. All based on £10 liability stakes
System 1 - Lay Under 2.5 goals for the 1st half ( odds under 1.40)
Trades 37, won 7, lost 30, s/r 18.92% Lost £38.44
Total trades to date since Jan 321, won 51, lost 270, s/r 15.89% Profit £259.64System 2 - Back home at K/o 3.0-3.50 odds
Trades 2, won 1, lost 1 ,s/r 50% profit £11.07
Total trades to date since 193, won 66,lost 127, s/rate 34.20% profit £164.63System 3- Back 1st half goal on 40mins ( if no goal 30-39mins)
June trades 14, won 3, lost 11, s/r 21.43% lost £11.99
Total trades since Jan- 197,won 52, lost 145,s/r 26.40% profit £284.24System 4- BTTS ON 15MINS ( ODDS 1.60+)
June trades - 18,won 11,lost 7, s/r 61.11% profit £19.86
Trades since May- Trades 100, won 57, lost 43, s/r 57% profit £26.08System 5- Lay away if takes lead
June - Trades 1, won 1 , lost 0 , s/rate 100% profit £3.49
Total trades since April 67, won 35, lost 32, s/r 52.24% profit £7.22System 6- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERSION B ( CHECK LEAGUE POS)
June - Trades 28, won 7,lost 21,s/rate 25% profit £246.68
Total trades since Nov25- Trades 402, won 58, lost 344, s/r 14.43% profit £217.34System 7- Back 1-0 Ft cs version Q
June trades 4, won 0, lost 4, s/r 0% lost £40.00
Total trades since Feb- Trades 53, won 10,lost 43, s/r 18.87% profit £230.92System 8- Back over 2.5 goals FT version B- (2.0 odds + check h2h)
June Trades 4, won 0,lost 4, s/r 0% lost £40.00
Total trades since Jan26- trades 1059, won 489,lost 570, s/r 46.18% profit £305.81System 9- Back over 1.5 Half 2 goals ( 2.0+ odds check h2h)
June 26- trades 4,won 2,lost 2, s/rate 50% profit £0.77p
Total trades since Jan26, trades 47, won 25,lost 22, s/rate 53.19% profit £46.53System 10- Back AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS
June - trades 19, won 3, lost 16, s/rate 15.79% Lost £17.90
Total trades since April- Trades 110, won 14, lost 96, s/rate 12.73% profit £176.80System 11- Injury Time goal version B ( last 5)
June trades - 20, won 8, lost 12, s/rate 40% profit £141.38
Total trades since Feb- 272, won 79, lost 193 s/r 29.04% profit £764.43System 12 - Injury Time goal last 10 matches
June - trades 4, won 1 , lost 3 , s/rate 25% profit £7.71
Total trades since Jan25- 272, won 77, lost 195 s/r 28.31% profit £846.63System 13- Back Over 1.5 FH goals ( odds 2.0+)
June trades 7, won 4, lost 3 , s/rate 57.14% profit £24.68
Total trades since March - 30, won 15, lost 15, s/rate 50% profit £65.29System 14- Back Draw at K/o version W
June 26- trades 9, won 3, lost 6 , s/rate 33.33% profit £14.48
Total trades since Feb- 126, won 33, lost 93, s/rate 26.19% profit £184.46System 15- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
June - trades 18, won 5, lost 13, s/rate 27.78% profit £10.63
Total trades since Jan- trades 375, won 118, lost 257, s/rate 31.47% profit £447.91System 16- Back Draw for 1st half ( 2.0+ odds )
June - trades 3, won 3, lost 0 , s/rate 100% profit £32.73
Total trades since March- 59, won 31,lost 28, s/rate 52.54% profit £102.97System 17 - New back over 3.5 goals ft on 15mins if odds 3.0+ and no goal
June - trades 8, won 3, lost 5 , s/rate 37.50% profit £12,23 -
Belated update for May, the results were a bit inconsistent probably again like April with the end of the winter leagues perhaps not performing as well as prior to April. Anyway here are the results i have recorded, all based on £10 liability test stakes
System 1- BACK AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS
May 26 - Trades 61,won7,lost 54,s/rate 11.47% profit £93.08
Total trades tested 91, won 11, lost 80, s/rate 12.09% profit £194.70System 2- Injury Time goal version B ( last 5 matches) odds 1.30 below
May 26, Trades 78, won 19, lost 59, s/rate 24.36% Profit £30.79
Total trades recorded since Feb- 252, won 71, lost 181, s/rate 28.17% profit £623.05System 3- Lay Under 2.5 Half 1 goals ( 1.40 odds below)
May 26- Trades 55, won 10, lost 45, s/rate 18.42% profit £78.33
Total trades since Jan- 247, won 44, lost 203, s/rate 17.81% profit £298.08System 4- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERSION B(CHECK LEAGUE POS)
May 26- Trades 81, won 6, lost 75, s/rate 7.41% lost £305.08
Total Trades since nov 25, Trades 374, won 51,lost 323, s/rate 13.64% lost £29.34System 5- Back Over 1.5 half 2 goals ( odds 2.0+ check h2h)
May 26- Trades 7 , won 2, lost 5, s/rate 28.57% lost £28.84
Total trades recorded since Jan26- Trades 43, won 23,lost 20, s/r 53.49% profit £45.76System 6- Back over 2.5 goals ft vers b(2.0+ odds check h2h 50%+)
May 26- Trades 31, won 11, lost 20, s/r 35.48% lost £62.02
Total trades since Nov25- trades 1055, won 489,lost 566,s/r 46.35% profit £345.81System 8 - Back 2-1 Ft cs opt A- ( check elo)
May 26- Trades 52, won 3, lost 49,s/r 5.77% lost £139.16
Total trades since April-114, won 12, lost 102,s/r 10.53% profit £156.00System 9 - Injury time goal last 10
May 26- Trades 30, won 6, lost 24,s/rate 20% lost £13.74
Total trades since Jan25- Trades 268, won 76, lost 192,s/r 28.36% profit £838.92System 10 - Back 1st half goal on 40mins( if no goal 30-39)
May26- trades 47,won 10,lost 37,s/r 21.28% lost £43.27
Total trades since jan- 183, won 49,lost 134,s/r 26.78% profit £296.23System 11- Back over 1.5 Fh Goals (odds 2.0+)
May 26- Trades 1, won1,lost0,s/r 100%, profit £12.34
Total trades since March 23,won 11,lost 12,s/rate 47.83% profit £40.61System 12- Back Home at k/o odds 3.0-3.50
May 26 -Trades 24, won 7,lost 17, s/r 29.17% lost £14.18
Total trades since Aug25- trades 191,won 65,lost 126,s/r 34.03% profit £153.56System 13 - Back Draw at K/o Version W
May 26- Trades 30, won 8,lost 22, s/r 26.67% profit £9.32
Total trades since Feb26- Trades 117,won 30, lost 87,s/r 25.64% profit £169.98System 14- Back 1-0 Ft Cs vers Q
May 26 - Trades 13, won 3, lost 10, s/r 23.08% profit £111.68
Total trades Since Feb26- Trades 49,won 10,lost 39, s/r 20.41% profit £270.92System 15- BTTS AT HALF TIME IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
May 26- Trades 68,won 17,lost 51,s/rate 25% lost £78.31
Trades rec since jan26- 357, WON 113, LOST 244, s/r 31.65% profit £437.28System 15- Back the draw for Half 1( odds 2.0+)
May 26- Trades 24, won 14, lost 10, s/r 58.33% profit £82.08
Total trades to date trades 56,won 28, lost 28,s/rate 50% profit £ 70.24Plenty others that i have amended the filters testing on hopefully come September i will have enough data for one or two systems to start trading on
-
Update for April , still paper trading lots of strategies in the hope come September that i will have enough data to potential start trading with real money again. I have done what i don't normally do by recording data on all matches even though coming to a close of the season seeing if any systems perform poorly . Based on £10 stakes
System 1- BACK AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS ODDS 8.0+( New strategy for April)
April 26- Trades 30 , won 4 , lost 26, s/rate 13.33% profit £101.62System 2- INJURY TIME GOAL VER B ( LAST 5 MATCHES ) odds 1.30 below
April 26- Trades 87, won 25, lost 62, s/rate 28.74% Profit £229.50
Total Trades since Feb26- Trades 174, won 52, lost 122, s/rate 29.88% profit £592.26System 3- LAY U2.5 H1 GOALS ( ODDS 1.40 BELOW)
April 26- Trades 78, won 13,lost 65, s/rate 16.67% lost £13.78
Total trades since jan26- Trades 192, won 34, lost 158, s/rate 17.71% profit £219.75System 4- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERS B( CHECK LEAGUE POS)
April 26- Trades 72, won 13, lost 59, s/rate 18.06% profit £176.36
Total trades recorded since Nov 25, -Trades 293, won 45, lost 248, s/r 15.38% profit £275.74System 5- BACK OVER 1.5 H2 GOALS ( ODDS 2.0+ CHECK H2H 50%+)
April 26, trades 7 , won 5, lost 2, s/r 71.43% profit £34.09
Total trades since Jan26, trades 36, won 21, lost 15, s/r 58.33% profit £74.60System 6- BACK OVER 2.5 GOALS FT VERS B( 2.0+ CHECK H2H 50%+)
April 26, Trades 138, won 53,lost 85, s/r 38.40% Lost £216.73
Total trades recorded since Nov 25, Trades 1024,won 478, lost 546, s/r 46.68% profit £407.83System 7- BACK 1-1 HT CS (ODDS 6.0+) New system
April 26- Trades 10, won 2, lost 8, s/rate 20% profit £82.68System 8 - BACK 2-1 FT CS VER A( CHECK ELO HIGHER HOME) NEW
April 26- Trades 62, won 9 , lost 53,s/r 14.52% profit £295.16System 9 - INJURY TIME GOAL LAST 10
April 26- Trades 34, won 12, lost 22, s/r 35.29% profit £232.52
Total trades recorded since Jan 25- Trades 238, won 70,lost 168, s/r 29.41% profit £852.66System 10 - BACK 1ST HALF GOAL ON 40MINS( IF NO GOAL 30-39)
April 26- Trades 34, won 13, lost 21, s/rate 44.74% profit £214.75
Total recorded trades since Jan 26- Trades 136, won 39,lost 97, s/rate 28.68% profit £339.50system 11- BACK OVER 1.5 H1 GOALS ( 2.0+)
April 26- Trades 9,won 4,lost 5,s/r 44.44% profit £0.76p
Total trades since recorded in March26, trades 22, won 10,lost 12,s/rate 45.45% profit £28.27System 12- BACK HOME AT K/O ODDS 3.0-3.50
April 26- Trades 42,won 9, lost 33, s/rate 21.43% lost £134.49
Total recorded since august 25- trades 167, won 58,lost 109 ,s/r 34.73% profit £167.74System 13- BACK DRAW AT K/O VERSION W
April 26- Trades 42, won 13, lost 29, s/rate 30.95% profit £46.14
Total trades since Feb 26- Trades 87, won 22, lost 65,s/rate 25.29% profit £160.66System 13- BACK 1-0 FT CS VER Q
April 26, Trades 22,won 3,lost 19, s/rate 13.64% profit £7.96
Total trades recorded since feb26- Trades 36, won 7, lost 29, s/rate 19.44% profit £139.24System 14- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
April 26- Trades 79, won 25,lost 54,s/rate 31.65% profit £107.29
Trades recorded since Jan26- Trades 289,won 96, lost 193, s/r 33.22% profit £515.59 -
Hi all update for March , like i have mentioned i am just paper trading loads of systems at the moment in the hope that i can find some profitable strategies from what i am collating data from. Here are the systems so far that look to have potential, all based on £10 stakes.
System 1 - Back home at k/o odds 3.0-3.50
March 26- trades 22 , won 8 , lost 14 , s/rate 36.36% profit £34.44
Total results since august trades 125, won 49, lost 76 , s/rate 37.98% profit £302.23System 2- Lay under 2.5 h1 goals ( 1.40 odds below)
March 26 - Trades 40, won 7, lost 33, s/rate 17.50%, profit £69.27
Total trades since January 26- Trades 114, Won 21, Lost 93, s/rate 18.42% profit £233.53System 3 - Back 1-0 FT cs version q
March 26 - Trades 12, won 4 , lost 8 , s/rate 33.33% profit £151.28
Total Trades since February , trade 14, won 4 ,lost 10, s/rate 28.57% profit £131.28System 4 - Back Draw at k/o Version W
March 26, Trades 30, won 5, lost 25, s/rate 16.66% profit £106.43
Total trades since Feb - Trades 45, won 9, lost 36, s/rate 20% profit £114.52System 5- Back over 1.5 first half goals ( odds 2.0+) revised to not include h2h
Started system in March - Trades 13, won 6, lost 7 , s/rate 46.15% profit £27.51System 6 - Back over 1.5 H2 goals odds 2.0+ check h2h
March 26- Trades 4, won 2, lost 2, s/rate 50% profit £0.77p
Total trades since January 26- Trades 29, won 16, lost 13, s/rate 55.17% profit £40.51System 7 - Back draw for 1st half odds 2.0 +
Started in March - Trades 11, won 6, lost 5 , s/rate 54.54% profit £10.95System 8 - Injury time goal version B( last 5 matches)
March 26- Trades 45, won 16, lost 29, s/rate 35.55% profit £313.36
Total trades since Feb26, Trades 87, won 27, lost 60, profit £362.76System 9- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( Odds 3.0+)
March 26, Trades 80, won 26, lost 54, s/rate 32.50% profit £99.94
Trades since January 210, won 71, lost 139, s/rate 33.81% profit £408.30System 10 - Back over 2.5 goals ft version B( 2.0+ odds check h2h)
March 26- trades 205, won 95, lost 110, s/rate 46.34% profit £53.75
Total trades since November 25, Trades 886, won 425, lost 461, s/r 47.97% profit £624.56So plenty of potential in these systems and i ones that havn't been profitable on will tighten the filters and then show the results if they improve
-
Hi all, update for January. I have had an unexpected issue with my car and a holiday to pay for so had to withdraw my bank so i havn't traded this month, i have been recording the results and also looking at other systems i have been paper trading. I will probably start again in March with a £200 bank and build it up again from there hopefully.
Good job i didn't trade as the BTTS i was going to implement would have lost over £200 , and the injury time goal would have lost just over £200 and the only system was good was the new back the home team which would have brought back the deficit as would have won nearly £250.
On the other paper trading systems some very promising early positives in a BTTS at HT if 0-0 and Laying Under 0.5 Half 2 goals will update soon -
Afternoon All, update for December. Unfortunately from a brilliant November , December was a losing month. With the injury time goal it is very much swings and round abouts either a small loss or huge profit. The Back the draw for half time strategy had a 4 monthly loss on a row, so i will go back and amend the filter slightly and paper trade to see if this improves.
The trading bank at the start of December was £2611.77 with 1% liability stakes of £26.11System 1 - Back the Draw for 1st half (odds 2.0-2.30) check h2h 50% plus
Trades 18
Won 7
Lost 11
S/rate 38.88%
Lost £80.19System 2- Injury time goal last 5 matches ( enter 90mins laying under goals market 1.30 below)
Trades 38
Won 7
Lost 31
S/Rate 18.42%
Lost £20.01So the new trading bank has been reduced to £2511.57 , new 1% liability stakes of £25.11.
I have mentioned before, i have been paper trading lots of other systems of which one i am going to start implementing this month .
I am going to backing Home team at k/o odds 3.0-3.50 ,I have been testing for a while i don't have many matches per month but overall i have a recorded data for 66 trades , won 24,lost 42, s/rate 36.36% and based on £10 tests i would be up £107.28. -
@james-everard wowser! that late goal strategy has been immense
-
Evening all , update for November , after a poor 1st week and then the international break slowed trading down , i recovered excellently for the second half of the month
The back the draw for 1st half made a small loss overall , which was the 3rd month in a row of losses but the previous two months before i started using money was very profitable so i will carry on for one more month with this system.
The injury time goal strategy had the best returns for a month to date so was really pleased with this.System 1 - BACK THE DRAW FOR THE 1ST HALF(2.0-2.30 ODDS) CHECK H2H 50% PLUS
TRADES 16
WON 6
LOST 10
S/RATE 37.50%
LOST £13.86SYSTEM 2- INJURY TIME GOAL LAST 5 MATCHES (ENTER 90MINS ODDS 1.30 BELOW ON LAYING UNDER NEXT GOAL MARKET)
TRADES 51
WON 18
LOST 33
S/RATE 35.29%
PROFIT £612.86Like i have mentioned before, i have been paper trading loads of other systems for the last few months, some i only recently started tracking so will need another couple of months of data and a couple one more month.
Anyway my new trading bank for Decmeber is £2611.77 and the new 1% liability stakes will be £26.11
-
@james-everard brilliant to hear!
-
@Alessandro-Imbrescia said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard
Hi James,
thanks a lot for sharing your strategy with me, I really appreciate it. I’m going to test it straight away.After a poor start to the month , i Had superb weekend on the injury time goal filter will update Tomorrow evening or Monday once i finish off my recording for November
-
@Alessandro-Imbrescia said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard
Hi James,
thanks a lot for sharing your strategy with me, I really appreciate it. I’m going to test it straight away.If i was you i would paper trade for a month just to record the results so you can build confidence in the strategy
-
@james-everard
Hi James,
thanks a lot for sharing your strategy with me, I really appreciate it. I’m going to test it straight away. -
@Alessandro-Imbrescia said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Hi James.
I’ve been trading using the LTD strategy up until now, but after losing my weekly profits during the Champions League matches, I’ve decided to take a step back and study other approaches to improve my method.
I saw that you’re using the “Goal in Injury Time – Version B” strategy (entering around the 90th minute or when odds drop below 1.30).
It really caught my attention — do you have any tips or key points to keep in mind when applying it?Thanks a lot in advance, and congrats on the solid work you’re doing!
hi Alessandro, firstly my trading is purely based on stats from this site so i don't trade cup matches or internationals as they won't be found on the filters.
I purely use the following filter for my injury time goal strategy it is a very basic filter but has been the only long lasting strategy that has worked month on monthOverall matches played 5 or more
Home goals for 91+ + away goals for 91+greater or equal to 3
Overall goals 91+ Greater or equal to 5
Restrict to current season
Exclude play offs
Scope last 5 matches -
@Alessandro-Imbrescia may be worth just trading league games, more relevant data I find, I'm extremely careful with cup matches.
-
Hi James.
I’ve been trading using the LTD strategy up until now, but after losing my weekly profits during the Champions League matches, I’ve decided to take a step back and study other approaches to improve my method.
I saw that you’re using the “Goal in Injury Time – Version B” strategy (entering around the 90th minute or when odds drop below 1.30).
It really caught my attention — do you have any tips or key points to keep in mind when applying it?Thanks a lot in advance, and congrats on the solid work you’re doing!
-
Hi update for October, down on both strategies but nothing to concern me too much. Only the second month with loses on the injury time goal system and backing the draw i am giving another month after two consecutive losing months
System 1- BACK DRAW FOR 1ST HALF CHECK H2H 50%+ ODDS 2.0-2.30
TRADES 27
WON 12
LOST 15
S/RATE 44.44%
LOST £36.72System 2
INJURY TIME GOAL LAST 5 MATCHES ODDS 1.30 BELOW ( LAY UNDER NEXT GOALS MARKET)
TRADES 39
WON 8
LOST 31
S/RATE 20.51%
LOST £19.74New trading bank has been reduced to £2012.95, new liability stakes of £20.12
Still testing various other strategies 2 or 3 looking promising after 3 months
-
@james-everard blimey that's brilliant!
-
@Martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard injury time one did well! has that been a good performer in general?
Hi Martin , this is my main strategy that has performed month on month ( apart from 1 poor month)
Trades 884
won 241
lost 643
S/rate 27.26%
Profit £2197.02 -
@james-everard injury time one did well! has that been a good performer in general?
