The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Keep all your horse trading discussion in here!
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Think I might dump scalping soon. I owe Adam a big arsed drink at some point. Love this software.
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@Ryan-Clark said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
minute before, also
I will have a look at those criteria. I removed the fav from mine and lowered the entry time already. In backtest it looks much better so hopefully should work out going forward
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@Jonathan-Jones I have a version of LTBF running which doesn’t include the fav filters and i have reduced the time period to place the bets to 1 minute before, also have reduced max odds to 10. It’s not as profitable in the long run but still very good returns and is much more stable as in no months so far that are in heavy negative like the base filter for May (my version are 20 points up for may)
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If you are using BFBM, it is easy to find the Fav. Set, DETERMINE FAVOURITE POSITIONS BY USING: start price
Then bet/lay the fav 0s-1s in-play. -
@Joshua-Varley
Yep. I described it the wrong way round.
9 mins out your selection is 3rd in the ordr so you place your lay bet. By 4 mins out its now favourite and then goes on to win. You take a loss of several (up to 13 points) on that horse yet the next day you run the software and it tells you you actually bet on a totally different horse and made 1 point profit (bit different from your several point loss). Been happening a lot this month on LBF.Yes, you can change the window and i have a couple of back strategies that fire within the last second that use fav and they dont have the issue. But, LBF as its in the presets uses fav and is 10 mins. Interestingly LBF works very well without that condition too.
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@Jonathan-Jones just out of curiosity, in regards to your comments about the fav condition- are you talking about horses that fire between 10 mins out and start time, as they have swappped into at least 3rd, or horses that have been in the top 2 but are in 3rd at the time of bet placement?
The reason I ask, because if the later, would it not have fired anyway without the fav condition? But if you meant horses swapping in between 10 mins and starting time, could you not just ask the bot not to place bets after say 5 seconds after the window opens? That way you would have to pretty unlucky (and it would obv be pretty rare) for the horse to swap in that 5 second window?
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@Philip-Brogan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Keith-Driscoll Thanks for your help. What strategies are you running.
Quite a few. I've been doing this for over 20 years.
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@Keith-Driscoll Thanks for your help. What strategies are you running.
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Thanks Keith and Greenie. I feel a bit better about LTBF now.
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LBF is quite an old one and its been pretty consistent. Its obviously not great this month but if you have been running it plain (with the favourite condition) then you will of been totally screwed over this month. I cant check every day and its near impossible to check past data but i have (on the days i could check the massive discrepancies i have had this month) counted a loss of 16 points directly due to horses swapping places out of the top 2 (so getting laid) then going on to win. Thats just what i could see so i bet there have been more. Thing is you dont need that condition for LBF. Its better without it.
I am 76% DD this month (on a 1% stake plan). Not all genuine poor performance though. That issue with horses swapping (now rectified going forwards), issues with bets not matching (now also mitigated to an extent going forwards) and some p**s poor coding of my little tool to create the fairbot automation rules from the selections helped me lose out on some additional profits on a couple of strats i recently added to my portfolio. Teething troubles really. Not sure about topping up to my original start balance at the end of the month (its currently about 30% down from that). Still think i might have a few issues i need to hammer out first. It might be worth it though. One of the things about compunding profits is what you add at the start (even if its only a little) is much more important than what comes later.
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@Keith-Driscoll thanks!
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@George-Bowling said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Keith-Driscoll cheers Keith, this is really interesting.
Can you confirm which column represents the pts profit per year for the strategy?
thanks!
LAY (BF)
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@Keith-Driscoll cheers Keith, this is really interesting.
Can you confirm which column represents the pts profit per year for the strategy?
thanks!
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@Keith-Driscoll This is great, thanks for sharing. It highlights that 2023 is currently above average wins for BFs (2.61 standard deviations above the mean) so nothing to panic about
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Here are the results of BF's since 2013, using just a Classification filter.
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@Philip-Brogan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Too many people are following the strategy and now we are influencing the market? - Nope. It would take tens of thousands to screw this up. Change in season from jumps to flat lots of young horses this time of year? - Nope, we are mid-season. Plan old variance suck it up and ride it out? - No idea what this means :smile: Some strategies never recover and continue to stagnate or lose money? - They do, this one does not. Nothing lasts forever no strategy is evergreen and the markets change over time - This one pretty much does last forever :wink: How many strategies should you run to reduce variance? - As many as you can :smile: -
@Philip-Brogan personally I feel I have to stick at it as it's proven profitable for so long prior to this month. I don't feel its fair to write off a strategy after one month of bad results recently. Admittedly like you say it is its worst month for a long time, but I'm comfortable to ride it out with my bank roll. No concerns for me right now.
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LTBF has had its worst month in over 2 years of back testing.
Some thoughts- Too many people are following the strategy and now we are influencing the market?
- Change in season from jumps to flat lots of young horses this time of year?
- Plan old variance suck it up and ride it out?
- Some strategies never recover and continue to stagnate or lose money?
- Nothing lasts forever no strategy is evergreen and the markets change over time
- How many strategies should you run to reduce variance?
Does anyone have some thoughts on this?
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