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The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Horse Racing
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    wrote on last edited by Adam
    #1

    Keep all your horse trading discussion in here!

    For complete software training click here: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3620/horse-racing-basic-training-software-instructions-guide

    For strategies click here: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads

    For Horse Racing Software Support send a message here: https://form.asana.com/?k=V4sICWddOgH3CMQ96g0XSA&d=1120854233877885

    Level 209
    C Gary TunnicliffeG John FolanJ T Rick WatsonR 8 Replies Last reply
    4
  • John FolanJ Offline
    John FolanJ Offline
    John Folan
    wrote last edited by
    #2

    Think I might dump scalping soon. I owe Adam a big arsed drink at some point. Love this software.

    Read the first post on both threads.

    Horse Trading Resources
    https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resources

    BfBotmanager
    https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion

    Level 152
    1 Reply Last reply
    3
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Jonathan Jones
    replied to Ryan Clark last edited by
    #3

    @Ryan-Clark said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    minute before, also

    I will have a look at those criteria. I removed the fav from mine and lowered the entry time already. In backtest it looks much better so hopefully should work out going forward

    Level 22
    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • R Offline
    R Offline
    Ryan Clark
    replied to Jonathan Jones last edited by
    #4

    @Jonathan-Jones I have a version of LTBF running which doesn’t include the fav filters and i have reduced the time period to place the bets to 1 minute before, also have reduced max odds to 10. It’s not as profitable in the long run but still very good returns and is much more stable as in no months so far that are in heavy negative like the base filter for May (my version are 20 points up for may)

    Level 5
    J 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith Driscoll
    wrote last edited by
    #5

    If you are using BFBM, it is easy to find the Fav. Set, DETERMINE FAVOURITE POSITIONS BY USING: start price
    Then bet/lay the fav 0s-1s in-play.

    Level 21
    1 Reply Last reply
    2
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Jonathan Jones
    replied to Joshua Varley last edited by
    #6

    @Joshua-Varley
    Yep. I described it the wrong way round.
    9 mins out your selection is 3rd in the ordr so you place your lay bet. By 4 mins out its now favourite and then goes on to win. You take a loss of several (up to 13 points) on that horse yet the next day you run the software and it tells you you actually bet on a totally different horse and made 1 point profit (bit different from your several point loss). Been happening a lot this month on LBF.

    Yes, you can change the window and i have a couple of back strategies that fire within the last second that use fav and they dont have the issue. But, LBF as its in the presets uses fav and is 10 mins. Interestingly LBF works very well without that condition too.

    Level 22
    R 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Joshua Varley
    replied to Jonathan Jones last edited by
    #7

    @Jonathan-Jones just out of curiosity, in regards to your comments about the fav condition- are you talking about horses that fire between 10 mins out and start time, as they have swappped into at least 3rd, or horses that have been in the top 2 but are in 3rd at the time of bet placement?

    The reason I ask, because if the later, would it not have fired anyway without the fav condition? But if you meant horses swapping in between 10 mins and starting time, could you not just ask the bot not to place bets after say 5 seconds after the window opens? That way you would have to pretty unlucky (and it would obv be pretty rare) for the horse to swap in that 5 second window?

    Level 9
    J 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith Driscoll
    replied to Philip Brogan last edited by
    #8

    @Philip-Brogan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    @Keith-Driscoll Thanks for your help. What strategies are you running.

    Quite a few. I've been doing this for over 20 years. 😄

    Level 21
    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • P Offline
    P Offline
    Philip Brogan
    replied to Keith Driscoll last edited by
    #9

    @Keith-Driscoll Thanks for your help. What strategies are you running.

    Level 10
    Keith DriscollK 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • P Offline
    P Offline
    Philip Brogan
    wrote last edited by
    #10

    Thanks Keith and Greenie. I feel a bit better about LTBF now.

    Level 10
    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Jonathan Jones
    wrote last edited by
    #11

    LBF is quite an old one and its been pretty consistent. Its obviously not great this month but if you have been running it plain (with the favourite condition) then you will of been totally screwed over this month. I cant check every day and its near impossible to check past data but i have (on the days i could check the massive discrepancies i have had this month) counted a loss of 16 points directly due to horses swapping places out of the top 2 (so getting laid) then going on to win. Thats just what i could see so i bet there have been more. Thing is you dont need that condition for LBF. Its better without it.

    I am 76% DD this month (on a 1% stake plan). Not all genuine poor performance though. That issue with horses swapping (now rectified going forwards), issues with bets not matching (now also mitigated to an extent going forwards) and some p**s poor coding of my little tool to create the fairbot automation rules from the selections helped me lose out on some additional profits on a couple of strats i recently added to my portfolio. Teething troubles really. Not sure about topping up to my original start balance at the end of the month (its currently about 30% down from that). Still think i might have a few issues i need to hammer out first. It might be worth it though. One of the things about compunding profits is what you add at the start (even if its only a little) is much more important than what comes later.

    Level 22
    J 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • G Offline
    G Offline
    George Bowling
    replied to Keith Driscoll last edited by
    #12

    @Keith-Driscoll thanks!

    Level 6
    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith Driscoll
    replied to George Bowling last edited by
    #13

    @George-Bowling said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    @Keith-Driscoll cheers Keith, this is really interesting.

    Can you confirm which column represents the pts profit per year for the strategy?

    thanks!

    LAY (BF)

    Level 21
    G P 2 Replies Last reply
    1
  • G Offline
    G Offline
    George Bowling
    replied to Keith Driscoll last edited by
    #14

    @Keith-Driscoll cheers Keith, this is really interesting.

    Can you confirm which column represents the pts profit per year for the strategy?

    thanks!

    Level 6
    Keith DriscollK 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Toyin ButlerT Offline
    Toyin ButlerT Offline
    Toyin Butler
    replied to Keith Driscoll last edited by
    #15

    @Keith-Driscoll This is great, thanks for sharing. It highlights that 2023 is currently above average wins for BFs (2.61 standard deviations above the mean) so nothing to panic about 🙂

    Stay curious, stay relevant, stay humble, keep contributing and above all, be grateful. Peace out!

    Level 6
    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith Driscoll
    wrote last edited by
    #16

    Here are the results of BF's since 2013, using just a Classification filter.

    #Capture333.JPG

    Level 21
    Toyin ButlerT G 2 Replies Last reply
    0
  • Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith Driscoll
    replied to Philip Brogan last edited by
    #17

    @Philip-Brogan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    Too many people are following the strategy and now we are influencing the market? - Nope. It would take tens of thousands to screw this up.
    
    Change in season from jumps to flat lots of young horses this time of year? - Nope, we are mid-season.
    
    Plan old variance suck it up and ride it out? - No idea what this means :smile: 
    
    Some strategies never recover and continue to stagnate or lose money? - They do, this one does not.
    
    Nothing lasts forever no strategy is evergreen and the markets change over time - This one pretty much does last forever :wink: 
    
    How many strategies should you run to reduce variance? - As many as you can :smile:
    
    Level 21
    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • GreenieG Offline
    GreenieG Offline
    Greenie
    replied to Philip Brogan last edited by
    #18

    @Philip-Brogan personally I feel I have to stick at it as it's proven profitable for so long prior to this month. I don't feel its fair to write off a strategy after one month of bad results recently. Admittedly like you say it is its worst month for a long time, but I'm comfortable to ride it out with my bank roll. No concerns for me right now.

    Level 10
    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • P Offline
    P Offline
    Philip Brogan
    wrote last edited by
    #19

    LTBF has had its worst month in over 2 years of back testing.
    Some thoughts

    1. Too many people are following the strategy and now we are influencing the market?
    2. Change in season from jumps to flat lots of young horses this time of year?
    3. Plan old variance suck it up and ride it out?
    4. Some strategies never recover and continue to stagnate or lose money?
    5. Nothing lasts forever no strategy is evergreen and the markets change over time
    6. How many strategies should you run to reduce variance?

    Does anyone have some thoughts on this?

    Level 10
    GreenieG Keith DriscollK 2 Replies Last reply
    0
  • Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith Driscoll
    replied to Greenie last edited by
    #20

    @Greenie If you have issues with the page not loading, clear the cache for BTC: https://www.minitool.com/news/clear-cache-for-one-site.html

    Level 21
    1 Reply Last reply
    0

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