*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score -
@james-everard I have been using the stats a lot more to get an idea of first goal times which then drives whether or not I put the full stake on from the start. I usually try to put a half stake on at a sensible time (from the stats) and then set up two quarter stakes to drip in shortly after.
I'm certainly no expert but I got tired of putting the whole stake on at KO only to find that the first goal comes in 20 mins later and I could have got a much better price. It doesn't always work of course but I reckon that I am getting a higher overall average price by drip feeding. The stats are key though - as @martin keeps saying!
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@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@james-everard I have been mostly sticking to my O1.5 goal strategy as my FHG filter was losing me money consistently so I binned it! I may try the back over 2.5 goals with a view to trading out as odds decay.
However, full disclosure, I have been 'taking action' and doing a little matched betting on the side with the bookies that I never opened the first time round. There are also a surprisingly high number of price boosts which allow some small and consistent profits.
Need to stay grounded though, and yesterday's three losing trades did that with a big fat 'red' for the first day of 2026.
Good luck this year.
HI Alastair i was trading an over 1.5 fh goal strategy at one point , what i always seem to find you have months of paper trading with consistent profits then you start trading it is a disaster. So far this month i started a new system after 6 months of profit paper trading ( BTTS ) and guess what 5 losses out of 5 so far very annoying!
That's a good idea with regards to the match betting something i could potential look at in the future.
What over 1.5 goal strategy are you doing is it at kick off or a split stake ? -
@james-everard I have been mostly sticking to my O1.5 goal strategy as my FHG filter was losing me money consistently so I binned it! I may try the back over 2.5 goals with a view to trading out as odds decay.
However, full disclosure, I have been 'taking action' and doing a little matched betting on the side with the bookies that I never opened the first time round. There are also a surprisingly high number of price boosts which allow some small and consistent profits.
Need to stay grounded though, and yesterday's three losing trades did that with a big fat 'red' for the first day of 2026.
Good luck this year.
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@Alastair-Todd Congratulations on your successful increase in your bank in such a short space of time that is tremendous work.
I started my back BTTS yesterday 4 trades all 4 lost! Although my two back the homes won so just a small loss for the start of the month.
What systems are you trading mate ? -
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@Alastair-Todd worse day i have had on LTD for a while...
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Happy New Year all. Having increased my Bank from £300 at the start of September to £1900 at the end of December, I thought things were going reasonably well.
Welcome to 2026 - three of my five trades lost today which was a pretty big kick in the teeth! The PL teams must have had a hangover. Oh well, the only way is up!
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Merry Christmas all!
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alastair-Todd quite interesting that 'match me' anyone been using it?
Not me, that's for sure. It always seems to want to give you a lower back price than you can get if you wait.
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@Alastair-Todd quite interesting that 'match me' anyone been using it?
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Does anyone know if Betfair Exchange has changed their backing procedure for some reason? I can change the lay odds up and down as usual but the back odds seem to be set at what they are at the moment. In other words I don’t seem to have the ability to ‘stage’ my entry into the market as the odds increase and I have to settle for what the odds are at this minute?
I now realise it's all about the 'Match Me' toggle switch...I'll get my coat!
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@Akiva-Anderson I'm a slot in till the end of the season type of guy....
Mainly due to the fact if you look at the xG till Konate stood on rakes everywhere 73 mins onwards was avg 0.4!
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@Akiva-Anderson Pretty sure that's exactly what's going to happen if reports are to be believed!
