@Nick-Segura for better or worse I just do mu own stuff now like you.
If I follow someone else's trade and it loses I always feel worse than if I lose on one of my own.
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@Craig-vaulks No worries at all, great to have you back š you missed us all? š
Wicked we will happily help.
July results early as holiday time for me...
Lay u1.5 goals - now 34pts up so down 2pts in July but that was basically one game
LTD 1st half only - now 28pts up so down 3 pts in June - again that was 2 losses in a row and not enough selections to get it back
BTTS - now 43 pts up so up 4pts in June - seems to be a good one for the summer leagues continuing Ā£1 stakes on this
Lay Away - still on 21 pts
looking forward to more selections but feel the summer has been useful for learning and looking at odds, with BBTS i now wait about 10 mins before entering to get odds at evens, i seem to really prefer bigger odds on things rather than chasing a really high strike rate.
Month 19 of trading
June for me was a very good month. Profit again, if even just a bit. The real takeaway is now I am a profitable trader. I just need time to scale - this is really exciting as I feel like the hard work is now paying off. The sky's the limit now and I do feel I am about to head onto much bigger things very soon.
Highlights
LTD Set and forget is back in profit! Just over 6 points profit -and ROI overall has increased to 4.2% so hoping it continues to climb again. SHG Sniper still does well the last few months. Checking the stats more has helped to decide whether to jump on or not. After several 100 selections of paper trading I am going live with Ā£5 stakes on a BTTS strategy and a over 2.5 goals set and forget strat - exciting times.Lowlights
I was my own worse enemy and jumped on an over 3.5 goals lay strat having seen some early success. This cost a me a bit and I have now reverted to paper trading, rookie mistake! My LTD at half time strategy has taken a bit of pounding this month. Might just be a blip as it's only the 2nd month of small stakes but it needs looking at before scaling. Selections killed off with euros! Just as I feel I am ready to go live with new strategies I find that all the selections have vanished! Sods law! My FHG inplay strat is going well getting in after 15 mins!Overall I am using the down time to create and test new strategies. A few of my older strats are coming up to one year old now and having that data is huge for future scaling! Roll on next season!
Cheers!
@Simon-Bates that's oustanding work, really good to read it too.
June
37 games- 27 wins, 10 losses for a 73% SR and a 4 point gain. Total bank to date +23 points
Roll on the international break(that sounded a bit footbally!) ABs v England, should be a goodie...
Goal too early in the America MG game so no entry.
I missed off a lay away game yesterday for FC Dallas v St Louis City which won.
+1 point.
No SHG games.
1 Lay away
16:00 Sandviken v Oddevold
Sat 15/06/2024 Selections.
IMG_1061.jpeg
4 selections today,
Sonderjske 13-3 under 0.5fhg 3.80-2.60 over 1.5 fhg
Asane 5-0 3.90-2.56
Lyn 4-0 3.35-3.05
Magallanes 7-1 3.40-2.98
These are the qaulifiers for today,
Gornik Zabrze v Stal Mielec 1.39 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.55
Kuressaare v Tammeka Tartu 1.36 lay under 05 fhg 3.75
Ross Co v Motherwell 1.37 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.75
Asane v Start 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00
Waldhof Mannheim v SV Sandhausen 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00 (might not get matched on this one)
Shakhtar v Dynamo Kiev 1.39 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.55
Ludogorets v CSKA Sofia 1.35 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.85
FCSB v CFR Cluj 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00 (might not get matched)
@simon-topper sounds like you have really grabbed the discipline by the balls! Well done mate, looking forward to the next update
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
A new month, a new "fun trade". This time I'm using the xG feature on the football software and gone with the following. I intend to close the trade at HT.
Lay Bournemouth @ 2.98 (Ā£2 liability)
Back U1.5 FHG @ 1.5 (Ā£2 liability)
Back U1.5G @ 4.5 (Ā£1 liability)FH xG is
WHU 0.51 vs BOR 0.59
WOL 0.34 vs UTD 0.25According to the software the most common HT scores are 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1. The only difference is there are no scorelines that have Bournemouth winning at HT. I've checked Soccer Stats and West Ham have not been losing at HT this season.
Soccer Stats also have Man United as the 3rd worst offensive team. Worse than Palace!
Well, that backfired! Strike two, if next month is a losing one that'll be the end of my fun trades. And heads up, next month definitely will be because I'm saving it Cheltenham festival!
I blame the software. Where's that YouTube video?! I need to leave a comment saying how this xG is broken and BTC is a rubbish tipping service! š
@Ryan Thanks. Nice one, i will take all this in to account. Yes, Iām not keen on high draw odds and like to be in 4.6 and below too. Not paid too much attention to the home odds as perhaps i should though, mainly just working on getting a decent number of trades at draw odds Iām comfortable with.
Small update in that I am also trialling a strategy which consists of backing the B2L selections 30 minutes before the off and trading out just before the race starts. Back testing for this show a very nice return, the price goes in my favour quite frequently. Nothing in the criteria and settings have really been selected for this, it's just by chance. One I'll be keeping an eye on.
This will run alongside the B2L and L2B strategies.
@simon-topper thanks for doing this and look forward to the next entry!
Sunday 30 Dec 2023.
Seems strange that this may be the last time I enter 2023 on anything! Happy new year if you're reading this!
So, No trading today, went out for food with my oldest, +25.89 points this week, a nervy 4 days where I only got back to staking my usual 2.5 points yesterday.
Been having problems since the big loss! I seem to have lost the courage of my convictions a little? had I not, I might be more points up this week but taking 15 points from Friday with no big losers this week has made the week look ok.
Looking foreword to next year it's going to be more of the same until March when I'll close my years accounts and reset for the next business year! The hope is that I can be profitable by then? As far as BTC is concerned, I'm still having a crisis of confidence with the strategies and I also don't like being tied to a position where it becomes a chore? I like the freedom of not having to trade if I don't feel good or if there's something more important to do!
I'm teaching the kids that when they play their games on the Switch or PS5 they must collect all of the loot, Tommy is well trained and if asked he will tell you the most important thing is to "Collect all the money"
I want them to learn that money is very important, not as important as family or health & well-being but having it gives you access to other things which are very important like good nutrition, education, possessions etc. etc.
Anyway, I've managed t claw back to -38 points since 7th July 2023 and if I can cut the losses or even just the big ones, I should be profitable by the end of the trading year (3 Apr 2024).
If I'm not, I'll have to re-think!
@Mark-Maguire thank you! Will start tracking those now too š
@Nick-Segura for better or worse I just do mu own stuff now like you.
If I follow someone else's trade and it loses I always feel worse than if I lose on one of my own.
@Jamie-Bourne fantastic read, always wanted a TT myself but it's not practical with the kids, when I retire I will get one or something better!
Good luck with the trading, sounds like you have a sound strategy! Keep us updated
@Mikael-Nordstrom if I was new to Betfair Trading in 2023 I would be looking at set and forget automation, basically doing the same thing I am now using strategies that have worked and tweaking them if neccessary.
