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79 Topics 8.1k Posts
  • Accountability Thread (AKA Cockups!)

    1 Votes
    12 Posts

    @Nick-Segura for better or worse I just do mu own stuff now like you.

    If I follow someone else's trade and it loses I always feel worse than if I lose on one of my own.

  • My Accountability Post

    3 Votes
    37 Posts


    KUPS game was a loser - 1.75 points

    KPV Lay away was a winner so +1 points

    Today SHG

    19:30 America MG v CRB

  • 7 Votes
    564 Posts

    Sat 15/06/2024 Selections.

  • 3 Votes
    16 Posts

    @Simon-Bates I bloody love this mate! This is good, really good.

    I love how structured you've got it and made it work around your family as well.

  • 3 Votes
    24 Posts

    @Shannon-Townsend 100%!!! Great way to do it, I used to try and split the research as well because the stats will pull the games before so I would get a list Friday and do a bit of work on a Friday then it left less to do on the Saturday morning.

  • Alex's - one year to being a pro

    4 Votes
    108 Posts

    @Alex-Rule I think it will, I LOVE the summer leagues.

    They are amazing.

  • rugby....Rugby...RUGBY!(Union)

    2 Votes
    29 Posts

    58 games- 36 wins, 22 losses for a 62% SR and a 2 point gain. Total bank to date +19 points

    With just over 250 matches traded I did a quick number crunch and the optimum odds range at this early stage would be 1.35- 4.9 for a home team win. And If I was to consider dumping a competition it would have to be the premiership. Home teams have performed poorly in England. Stand out leagues, Top 14 and Super rugby. Ill get a few more results before changing things though. This is quite fun😁

  • Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection

    1 Votes
    39 Posts

    4 selections today,

    Sonderjske 13-3 under 0.5fhg 3.80-2.60 over 1.5 fhg
    Asane 5-0 3.90-2.56
    Lyn 4-0 3.35-3.05
    Magallanes 7-1 3.40-2.98

  • 1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid

    2 Votes
    143 Posts

    These are the qaulifiers for today,

    Gornik Zabrze v Stal Mielec 1.39 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.55
    Kuressaare v Tammeka Tartu 1.36 lay under 05 fhg 3.75
    Ross Co v Motherwell 1.37 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.75
    Asane v Start 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00
    Waldhof Mannheim v SV Sandhausen 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00 (might not get matched on this one)
    Shakhtar v Dynamo Kiev 1.39 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.55
    Ludogorets v CSKA Sofia 1.35 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.85
    FCSB v CFR Cluj 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00 (might not get matched)

  • Simon's Blog - Year of the Grind (2024)

    5 Votes
    39 Posts

    @simon-topper sounds like you have really grabbed the discipline by the balls! Well done mate, looking forward to the next update

  • Fortune Favours the Bold

    12 Votes
    444 Posts

    @Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:

    A new month, a new "fun trade". This time I'm using the xG feature on the football software and gone with the following. I intend to close the trade at HT.

    Lay Bournemouth @ 2.98 (£2 liability)
    Back U1.5 FHG @ 1.5 (£2 liability)
    Back U1.5G @ 4.5 (£1 liability)

    FH xG is
    WHU 0.51 vs BOR 0.59
    WOL 0.34 vs UTD 0.25

    According to the software the most common HT scores are 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1. The only difference is there are no scorelines that have Bournemouth winning at HT. I've checked Soccer Stats and West Ham have not been losing at HT this season.

    Soccer Stats also have Man United as the 3rd worst offensive team. Worse than Palace!

    Well, that backfired! Strike two, if next month is a losing one that'll be the end of my fun trades. And heads up, next month definitely will be because I'm saving it Cheltenham festival!

    I blame the software. Where's that YouTube video?! I need to leave a comment saying how this xG is broken and BTC is a rubbish tipping service! 😈

  • Lay The Draw

    4 Votes
    10 Posts

    @Ryan Thanks. Nice one, i will take all this in to account. Yes, I’m not keen on high draw odds and like to be in 4.6 and below too. Not paid too much attention to the home odds as perhaps i should though, mainly just working on getting a decent number of trades at draw odds I’m comfortable with.

  • The Newby's Blog

    2 Votes
    3 Posts

    Small update in that I am also trialling a strategy which consists of backing the B2L selections 30 minutes before the off and trading out just before the race starts. Back testing for this show a very nice return, the price goes in my favour quite frequently. Nothing in the criteria and settings have really been selected for this, it's just by chance. One I'll be keeping an eye on.

    This will run alongside the B2L and L2B strategies.

  • Simon's Manifesto - Consitency (2023)

    2 Votes
    75 Posts

    @simon-topper thanks for doing this and look forward to the next entry!

  • Team Simmonds Journal!

    2 Votes
    91 Posts

    Sunday 30 Dec 2023.

    Seems strange that this may be the last time I enter 2023 on anything! Happy new year if you're reading this!
    So, No trading today, went out for food with my oldest, +25.89 points this week, a nervy 4 days where I only got back to staking my usual 2.5 points yesterday.

    Been having problems since the big loss! I seem to have lost the courage of my convictions a little? had I not, I might be more points up this week but taking 15 points from Friday with no big losers this week has made the week look ok.

    Looking foreword to next year it's going to be more of the same until March when I'll close my years accounts and reset for the next business year! The hope is that I can be profitable by then? As far as BTC is concerned, I'm still having a crisis of confidence with the strategies and I also don't like being tied to a position where it becomes a chore? I like the freedom of not having to trade if I don't feel good or if there's something more important to do!

    I'm teaching the kids that when they play their games on the Switch or PS5 they must collect all of the loot, Tommy is well trained and if asked he will tell you the most important thing is to "Collect all the money"
    I want them to learn that money is very important, not as important as family or health & well-being but having it gives you access to other things which are very important like good nutrition, education, possessions etc. etc.

    Anyway, I've managed t claw back to -38 points since 7th July 2023 and if I can cut the losses or even just the big ones, I should be profitable by the end of the trading year (3 Apr 2024).

    If I'm not, I'll have to re-think!

  • Patience, Consistency, Discipline.

    6 Votes
    71 Posts

    @Ryan yeah they seem pretty decent. I'm sure there are plenty of other people better qualified than me to make suggestions for in play stats.
    But for me I know there are plenty of sites you can go on such as bet365, flashscore etc. I just think it would be useful to make it more in tune for people who are trading and also easier to view/identify potential trades by having the stats of easier to view, for all the live matches rather than having to click on them 1 by 1. As for useful stats obviously most traders will be looking for potential goals. So things like shots on target, off target, corners, possession and dangerous attacks. Something that could also be useful is a momentum style tracker to see how the match is going and maybe the times of the shots on target. Not sure how viable some of these things are but I would find them useful when looking for SHG'S and many other in play strategies. Just an idea anyway. Not sure how many others would find having something like this useful.

  • SJR's Trading Diary

    1 Votes
    9 Posts

    @Mark-Maguire thank you! Will start tracking those now too 🙂

  • Holding myself to account

    3 Votes
    2 Posts

    @Jamie-Bourne fantastic read, always wanted a TT myself but it's not practical with the kids, when I retire I will get one or something better!

    Good luck with the trading, sounds like you have a sound strategy! Keep us updated

  • Im back...

    2 Votes
    12 Posts

    @Mikael-Nordstrom if I was new to Betfair Trading in 2023 I would be looking at set and forget automation, basically doing the same thing I am now using strategies that have worked and tweaking them if neccessary.

  • This topic is deleted!

    3 Votes
    14 Posts