@Alex-Rule Exactly the same happened to me in October . Just when you think you have cracked it with strategies that have performed well for a year then take a big hit.
It knocks your confidence so much so back paper trading my main one again (injury time goal) and still not looking good this month on this system

Just popping in mid month to officially kick Internationals into touch after home teams didn't win a single match this last autumn nations round. The spreadsheet wont recover from the losses this month but with an All Black win, the first loss for Ireland at home for 3 1/2 years apparently...and a last gasp Aussie victory in a magnificent game of rugby at Twickers, I'm not complaining too much😁

@Shannon-Townsend brilliant!

@Ryan I have 4 versions of this strategy I'm paper trading at the moment, I record the odds for back under and lay over 0.5 ht goals and whichever gives the best profit from backing £5 or laying max liability £5, is the bet I choose.

Version 1 (12/06/24)
509 games, 23% s/r, profit £11.86

Screenshot_20240909_172955_Sheets.jpg

Version 2 (04/07/24)
176 games, 41% s/r, profit £56.47

Screenshot_20240909_173003_Sheets.jpg

Version 3 (18/07/24)
1649 games, 33% s/r, profit £193.72

Screenshot_20240909_173054_Sheets.jpg

Version 4 (18/07/24)
66 games, 49% s/r, profit £63.67

Screenshot_20240909_173104_Sheets.jpg

In August I went on holiday to Egypt for 10 days so I couldn't record the true odds for them 10 days while I was away so had to use average odds, I know some of the trades that won would have had higher odds than the average i recorded, so I know that the profits for each version should be a bit higher than they are now.

@Craig-vaulks No worries at all, great to have you back 🙂 you missed us all? 🙂

Wicked we will happily help.

Goal too early in the America MG game so no entry.
I missed off a lay away game yesterday for FC Dallas v St Louis City which won.
+1 point.

No SHG games.

1 Lay away

16:00 Sandviken v Oddevold

Sat 15/06/2024 Selections.
IMG_1061.jpeg

4 selections today,

Sonderjske 13-3 under 0.5fhg 3.80-2.60 over 1.5 fhg
Asane 5-0 3.90-2.56
Lyn 4-0 3.35-3.05
Magallanes 7-1 3.40-2.98

These are the qaulifiers for today,

Gornik Zabrze v Stal Mielec 1.39 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.55
Kuressaare v Tammeka Tartu 1.36 lay under 05 fhg 3.75
Ross Co v Motherwell 1.37 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.75
Asane v Start 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00
Waldhof Mannheim v SV Sandhausen 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00 (might not get matched on this one)
Shakhtar v Dynamo Kiev 1.39 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.55
Ludogorets v CSKA Sofia 1.35 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.85
FCSB v CFR Cluj 1.33 lay under 0.5 fhg 4.00 (might not get matched)

@simon-topper sounds like you have really grabbed the discipline by the balls! Well done mate, looking forward to the next update

@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:

A new month, a new "fun trade". This time I'm using the xG feature on the football software and gone with the following. I intend to close the trade at HT.

Lay Bournemouth @ 2.98 (£2 liability)
Back U1.5 FHG @ 1.5 (£2 liability)
Back U1.5G @ 4.5 (£1 liability)

FH xG is
WHU 0.51 vs BOR 0.59
WOL 0.34 vs UTD 0.25

According to the software the most common HT scores are 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1. The only difference is there are no scorelines that have Bournemouth winning at HT. I've checked Soccer Stats and West Ham have not been losing at HT this season.

Soccer Stats also have Man United as the 3rd worst offensive team. Worse than Palace!

Well, that backfired! Strike two, if next month is a losing one that'll be the end of my fun trades. And heads up, next month definitely will be because I'm saving it Cheltenham festival!

I blame the software. Where's that YouTube video?! I need to leave a comment saying how this xG is broken and BTC is a rubbish tipping service! 😈

@Ryan Thanks. Nice one, i will take all this in to account. Yes, I’m not keen on high draw odds and like to be in 4.6 and below too. Not paid too much attention to the home odds as perhaps i should though, mainly just working on getting a decent number of trades at draw odds I’m comfortable with.

Small update in that I am also trialling a strategy which consists of backing the B2L selections 30 minutes before the off and trading out just before the race starts. Back testing for this show a very nice return, the price goes in my favour quite frequently. Nothing in the criteria and settings have really been selected for this, it's just by chance. One I'll be keeping an eye on.

This will run alongside the B2L and L2B strategies.

@simon-topper thanks for doing this and look forward to the next entry!

Sunday 30 Dec 2023.

Seems strange that this may be the last time I enter 2023 on anything! Happy new year if you're reading this!
So, No trading today, went out for food with my oldest, +25.89 points this week, a nervy 4 days where I only got back to staking my usual 2.5 points yesterday.

Been having problems since the big loss! I seem to have lost the courage of my convictions a little? had I not, I might be more points up this week but taking 15 points from Friday with no big losers this week has made the week look ok.

Looking foreword to next year it's going to be more of the same until March when I'll close my years accounts and reset for the next business year! The hope is that I can be profitable by then? As far as BTC is concerned, I'm still having a crisis of confidence with the strategies and I also don't like being tied to a position where it becomes a chore? I like the freedom of not having to trade if I don't feel good or if there's something more important to do!

I'm teaching the kids that when they play their games on the Switch or PS5 they must collect all of the loot, Tommy is well trained and if asked he will tell you the most important thing is to "Collect all the money"
I want them to learn that money is very important, not as important as family or health & well-being but having it gives you access to other things which are very important like good nutrition, education, possessions etc. etc.

Anyway, I've managed t claw back to -38 points since 7th July 2023 and if I can cut the losses or even just the big ones, I should be profitable by the end of the trading year (3 Apr 2024).

If I'm not, I'll have to re-think!

@Mark-Maguire thank you! Will start tracking those now too 🙂

@Nick-Segura for better or worse I just do mu own stuff now like you.

If I follow someone else's trade and it loses I always feel worse than if I lose on one of my own.

@Jamie-Bourne fantastic read, always wanted a TT myself but it's not practical with the kids, when I retire I will get one or something better!

Good luck with the trading, sounds like you have a sound strategy! Keep us updated

@Mikael-Nordstrom if I was new to Betfair Trading in 2023 I would be looking at set and forget automation, basically doing the same thing I am now using strategies that have worked and tweaking them if neccessary.