Here are the stats highlights from our software today!

Horse Racing - User Guide Here: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/horse-racing-stats/

Terms Glossary:

LTO = Last Time Out

Dobbed = Price reduces 50% In Running, a £10 bet at the off would make £10 profit if price reached, £10 loss if price not reached.

Trobbed = Price reduces 66.67% in running, a £10 bet at the off would make £20 profit if price reached, £10 loss if price not reached.

Beaten Fav = Horse that was a favourite last time out and lost.

Steamed = Horse's price has shortened significantly

Drifted = Horse’s price has got bigger significantly

Class = Similar to divisions in football, so going up in class in theory is stronger competition, down in class weaker horses etc

Newcastle 14:00
No Recollection
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Kalikapour
Moved down a class since LTO

Bushfire
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Sutue Alshams
Moved down a class since LTO

Busby
Moved down a class since LTO

Wallaroo
Dobbed in 9 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

York 14:05
Never Dark
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at distance

Zarzyni
Moved down a class since LTO

Night On Earth
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Princess Karine
Has won at distance

Strong Johnson
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Reigning Profit
Has won at distance

Ghathanfar
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Leodis Dream
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Has won at distance

Whisky McGonagall
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Another Baar
Has won at distance

Soul Seeker
Has won over course & distance combo

Woobay
Has won at distance

Birkenhead
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Glendown
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Market mover - Price steamed -34% since last night

Fortunate Star
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO

Golden Rainbow
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.8200000524520874

Gowran Park 14:17
Play It Again Zaam
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Skontonovski
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Blue Wood
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Golden Days
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Pascalia
Has won at distance

The Stray Sod
Market mover - Price drifted 65% since last night

Pulse Of Shanghai
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Fastman
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night

Second Fiddle
Draw bias = 1.8300000429153442
Market mover - Price drifted 52% since last night

Ascot 14:25
Julia Augusta
Market mover - Price steamed -38% since last night

Sirona
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Soprano
Has won at course
Draw bias = 1.5499999523162842

Newcastle 14:35
Appier
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Thundering
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.7699999809265137

Galahad Threepwood
Market mover - Price steamed -61% since last night

Fox Flame
Moved up a class since LTO

York 14:40
Korker
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Silky Wilkie
Has won at distance

Rage Of Bamby
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Ferrous
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Badri
Has won at distance

Brazen Bolt
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -34% since last night

Bergerac
Has won over course & distance combo

Radio Goo Goo
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Dare To Hope
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO

International Girl
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Rock Opera
Moved up a class since LTO

Chester 14:45
Lincoln Rockstar
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Grey Fable
Has won over course & distance combo

Ready To Shine
Dobbed in 9 of last 10 runs

Lhebayeb
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Hot Team
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Draw bias = 2.180000066757202

Gowran Park 14:52
Tai Sing Yeh
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

On Our Radar
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Scarlet Dancer
Beaten Fave LTO
Draw bias = 1.8300000429153442

Inflection Point
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Rock Dandy
Has won at distance

Miqdaad
Has won at distance

Roman Harry
Moved down a class since LTO

Gegenpressing
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Clarinbridge
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

The Fog Horn
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Ascot 15:00
Fivethousandtoone
Moved down a class since LTO

Orazio
Has won at course

Northern Express
Has won at distance

Carrytheone
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won at distance

Ropey Guest
Has won at distance

Bless Him
Has won at course
Has won at distance
Draw bias = 1.75

Metal Merchant
Has won at course
Has won at distance

Billyjoh
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs

Fresh
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Hickory
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5299999713897705

Riot
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 2.2300000190734863

Eminency
Moved up a class since LTO

York 15:15
Alflaila
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Royal Rhyme
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs

Chester 15:20
Light Speed
Market mover - Price steamed -45% since last night

Evocative Spark
Has won at course

Saturnalia
Moved up a class since LTO

Oso Rapido
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Draw bias = 1.7799999713897705

Tobetso
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO

Vince Le Prince
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs

Wyvern
Moved up a class since LTO

Once Adaay
Moved up a class since LTO

Ascot 15:40
Auguste Rodin
Has won at course

Hans Andersen
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)

Luxembourg
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)

Newcastle 15:50
Borgi
Moved down a class since LTO

Dingle
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Danielsflyer
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Summa Peto
Moved up a class since LTO

Cusack
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Francesi
Moved up a class since LTO

Sennockian
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won over course & distance combo

Distinction
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Chester 16:05
Matters Most
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Beyond Borders
Moved up a class since LTO

Media Shooter
Moved up a class since LTO

Balon D'Or
Moved up a class since LTO

Knicks
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Newcastle 16:25
Smalleytime
Has won at course

Martin's Brig
Has won over course & distance combo

Angel Amadea
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Little Ted
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Keep Me Stable
Has won at course
Market mover - Price steamed -36% since last night

Wheres The Crumpet
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course

Barleybrown
Has won over course & distance combo

Balqaa
Has won over course & distance combo

Struck Gold
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Gowran Park 16:30
Hightimeyouwon
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Pier Pressure
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Raknah
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Darkdeserthighway
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Pink Socks
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Dabana
Has won at distance

York 16:35
Master Of Combat
Draw bias = 1.659999966621399
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night

Barley
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Market mover - Price drifted 60% since last night

Theme Park
Draw bias = 1.5700000524520874

Siam Fox
Market mover - Price drifted 38% since last night

Zozimus
Beaten Fave LTO

Al Marmar
Moved down a class since LTO

Hortzadar
Moved up a class since LTO

Berkshire Phantom
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 43% since last night

English Spirit
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Moved up a class since LTO

My Harrison George
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.659999966621399

Chester 16:40
Secret Mistral
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Beaten Fave LTO

Count D'Orsay
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.9299999475479126

Maharajas Express
Beaten Fave LTO

Ecclesiastical
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.8600000143051147

Bang On The Bell
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Rogue Thunder
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5299999713897705

Object
Moved up a class since LTO

Lotus Rose
Moved up a class since LTO

Red Walls
Draw bias = 2.059999942779541

Ascot 16:50
Raadobarg
Has won at distance

Baradar
Has won at course

Bopedro
Has won at distance

Tempus
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Sterling Knight
Has won at course
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO

Tolstoy
Moved up a class since LTO

Great Blasket
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Obelix
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5499999523162842

Newcastle 17:00
Bernie The Bear
Has won at course

Parr Fire
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Rockin Rosa
Has won over course & distance combo

Storm Master
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Gowran Park 17:05
Jeaniemacaroney
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Moved down a class since LTO

Rockbury Lad
Moved down a class since LTO

Mayo For Sam
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Manhattan Dandy
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Draw bias = 1.5

Patrick Street
Draw bias = 1.5

Barretstown
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Draw bias = 2.259999990463257

Pro Bono
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Fleadhfest
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 52% since last night

Just Another Eagle
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Rockview Roman
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Designer Cailin
Draw bias = 3.009999990463257

Stormy Jenn
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5

Rushford
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

York 17:10
Ziggy
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved down a class since LTO

Ron O
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Two Brothers
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Masekela
Moved up a class since LTO

Lingfield 17:15
Quickfire
Has won at course
Draw bias = 1.600000023841858

Bramble Jelly
Draw bias = 1.559999942779541

Chester 17:20
Hyperfocus
Has won at course

Arecibo
Moved down a class since LTO

The Thames Boatman
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.8600000143051147

Dickieburd
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won over course & distance combo
Draw bias = 1.9299999475479126

Almaty Star
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Due For Luck
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5299999713897705

G'Day Mate
Moved down a class since LTO

Paws For Thought
Has won at course
Draw bias = 2.059999942779541

King Of Tonga
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Ascot 17:25
Albasheer
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Bond Chairman
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Pepsi Cat
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Woolhampton
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Emperor Spirit
Moved up a class since LTO

Existent
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO

Two Tribes
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Muker
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO

Brave Nation
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Harry Brown
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.8200000524520874

Call Me Ginger
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.590000033378601

Newcastle 17:30
Henery Hawk
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Stallone
Has won over course & distance combo

Three Beauz
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Brazen Belle
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Gowran Park 17:35
Star Kissed
Moved down a class since LTO

Vestigia
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 3.009999990463257

York 17:40
Misemerald
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Draw bias = 1.6200000047683716

Alreet Cha
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO

Finn Ironside
Moved up a class since LTO

Lingfield 17:45
Longuerue
Draw bias = 2.7899999618530273

Smith
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -38% since last night

Queen Of Steel
Moved down a class since LTO

Miss Tiki
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Chester 17:50
Theoryofeverything
Moved down a class since LTO

Grey Cuban
Has won over course & distance combo

Mysteryofthesands
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO

Salisbury 18:30
Mick's Spirit
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

The Defiant
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Draw bias = 1.649999976158142

Lingfield 18:45
Vinaka
Moved down a class since LTO

Overnight Oats
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Marsh Benham
Moved down a class since LTO

Airshow
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Zu Run
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Cooperation
Moved down a class since LTO

Big Bard
Has won at course

Ceilidh
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Ivasecret
Has won at course

Spanish Mane
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won over course & distance combo
Draw bias = 1.840000033378601

Rabinal
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5199999809265137

Lingfield 19:15
Clipsham La Habana
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Sir Oliver
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Abolish
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Chiedozie
Moved up a class since LTO

Salisbury 19:30
Impeach
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Hearitfortheboys
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Moe's Legacy
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

The Cola Kid
Has won at distance

Lingfield 19:45
Milliethemollie
Moved down a class since LTO

Smooth Silesie
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Salisbury 20:00
H Key Lails
Has won at distance

Daisy Roots
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5399999618530273

Chourmo
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs

High Court Judge
Has won at distance

We'renotreallyhere
Moved down a class since LTO

Lingfield 20:15
Boom Boom Pow
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Nordic Glory
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at course

Pablo Del Pueblo
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course

Zing Up
Has won at course
Draw bias = 1.75

Kangaroo
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs

Haveagobeau
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Hurricane Alert
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course

Salisbury 20:30
Tasmanian Legend
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Thanks,

Martin
Betfair Trading Tutor

Bet Angel has a "To be placed" market in guardian - that is the one that you need. 👍 Can always run a test as well to make sure the values correlate.

Just after a second opinion, but I have a horse racing Lay strategy which I am testing, back testing just includes 2023 and 2024, and I wondered what the following two sets of results would tell you:

These are the results if I set it to bet as soon as the Market is Open:

842a0fb6-7dd8-482a-a093-9e7bed11aa43-image.png

And these are the results if I set it to bet 15 minutes before the start of the race:

c6b2ac9e-134b-41d8-ba7b-02108c8ece22-image.png

The strategy lays certain 1st and 2nd Favourites, so obviously the variance in number of bets is due to market movements, but just wondered if there were any other thoughts explaining the variance?

@Joseph-Henderson said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@John-Folan hi John. Would you be able to share you latest results table for the DOBS and TROBS that is included at the top of this thread? Cheers

Will do at the end of the month matey. Sorry been busy for a few days.

@Wayne-Thomas OK thank you Wayne, I will follow with interst ,I noticed 4 possible bets yesterday and 4 winners.

@Martin: Morning price is around 11am and the evening price is around 20:30. I'm going to add an early morning price as well at around 08:00-08:30am as there can be some good value at that time too.

@Adam Thanks Adam. No worries. I know you're a busy man and it's certainly not a pressing problem. That's a good workaround. Thanks for your help.

We only have the full price history for the win market currently but will be adding other markets in future.

It's possible to add the place BSP as a column in the trades results, but it's not currently possible to filter on the place / each way odds.

@James-Mitchell said in DOB% Quesiton - 13/05 (1.47 Catterick):

Is there a benchmark figure or is literally any amount matched at the lowest point in play for said runner?

It's the lowest price with at least £1 matched. We're looking at ways of providing some liquidity settings so you can change the minimum amount matched for things like this 👍

@Adam Fantastic Thanks for the Update

@Paul-Hill don't think we could even investigate that, as there is no strategy to work from. perhaps something in the betting rules was slightly different, impossible to know if it wasn't saved unfortunately.

if you are 100% sure create it again and see if the results align with the saved one, save both and let us know the names if there is an issue and we could investigate.

@Paul-Hill The outsider is the horse with the highest price.

2nd outsider is the horse with the 2nd highest price, etc. Basically the opposite of the favourites.

The outsider setting works in conjunction with the other betting rules, so for example if you set your entry time as 10 mins before the race, it's basically going to give you whichever horse had the highest price at 10 mins before the race.

@Patrick-Murphy Having looked at some of these, it looks like they're due to gaps in the prices. So basically short amounts of time where we weren't able to capture price snapshots, so your exits have either been missed completely or recorded later than they should have been.

These gaps can be due to latency or brief outages of the Betfair API and occasionally due to some issue our end, like the server issue I posted about recently here.

We regularly plug these gaps where we can using the Betfair historical data, and we've recently improved our audit scripts to better identify when they happen, so have been going through the whole database again to apply this improved method. It's a fairly big task but should be finished by the end of next week.

Sometimes when the issue is at Betfair's end, the data doesn't even appear in their historical data, which means we won't be able to plug the gaps at all. This will represent a fraction of a percent of trades, but I can understand that if you're backing at very high odds and large stakes, it could skew the profit figure.

Maybe we need a way of marking these in the database. We could also add some kind of "report and exclude" button to each individual trade in the results table, so that if you spot any of these yourselves, you can submit them for review and make them not appear in your backtesting results.

I'll finish the DB audit and then see what we can do to deal with any issues that still remain.

@Danny-Bridges Actually I was wrong about it being a backwards compatibility issue.

It's actually being caused by a bug when you include "draw bias" in the individual trades results columns.

I'll fix this today but for now, just exclude that column in your results 👍

@Martin I'm really looking for a standard approach to calculating my stakes as a percentage of bank across various strategies (rather than based on a specific strategy). Generally I'm backing but some lay strats.
So for example, one strategy might have a 4% strike rate, odds range 20-100, average odds 38, longest losing run 133 and an ROI of 24%. I know I'll need to ride out long losing periods and my gut feel is I'd want at least a 200 point bank, probably more. If I plug the above into a basic Kelly calculator it gives me 1.41% as the 'Fraction of bankroll to wager' which equals a 70 point bank. That's way too low in my view.
2nd scenario - 24% strike rate, average odds 8, longest losing run 22 and an ROI of 37%. The basic Kelly calculator gives 13.14% as my stake %age (!) but my feel is this would work with a 100 point bank.
I've seen Kelly calculators with options to add multiples for a more cautious bank size (BFBM has a 'Divisor') and maybe I just need to use that but adjust the Divisor based on the average odds?
I've always used a level stakes approach and that's probably why I'm struggling with the percentage of bank that Kelly calculates. I also need to adjust to the percent of bank betting approach rather level stakes
Anyway, any thoughts from others with more experience using a percentage approach will be very welcome
Cheers

@nigel-stone welcome it's great to have you here! if you get stuck just let me know

@Andrew-Hopkins For today, yes

That's massive bad luck, for two horses at single figure odds to be withdrawn after the off time and then such a big priced outsider going on to win before a retrospective rule four is enforced. Going to be a very rare occurrence, but can be pretty painful when it does happen.

That's why I tend to do this type of trade with National Hunt races only because there's no messing about with stalls and you can see exactly how everyone is lining up.

@Martin thank you as usual Martin