Horse Racing

98 Topics 12.7k Posts
  • The BTC Horse Racing Thread

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    @John-Folan

    Without fail its an exocet missile resisting urge to increasing stakes yet tho
    not until +£500 then no doubt go onto a daily compound keeping to 1% or 2% of bank per selection not decided yet

  • Horse Racing Strategies Megathread

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    @Danny-Bridges Actually I was wrong about it being a backwards compatibility issue.

    It's actually being caused by a bug when you include "draw bias" in the individual trades results columns.

    I'll fix this today but for now, just exclude that column in your results 👍

  • Horse Racing Training

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    No one has replied
  • Horse Racing Strategy Clinic

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    @Danny-Beal thanks, I have betangel, but if it is possible on bfbm I have a hope that I can somehow do it with betangel, thanks.

  • Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread

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    @Adam Top Man, I never did get an understanding of the inherit option, but you've cleared that up now, so two birds blah blah. Thank You

  • John’s Horse Trading Resources

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    @Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

    @John-Folan said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

    Another nice 6 point day. Made up for a 2 point loss yesterday. Moving along nicely. These do better in the spring summer anyway so let’s hope for a good season

    Great work! Need to get into these

    Another three points from 1 dob and 1 trob. Nice

  • Betting bank calculator

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    @Martin I'm really looking for a standard approach to calculating my stakes as a percentage of bank across various strategies (rather than based on a specific strategy). Generally I'm backing but some lay strats.
    So for example, one strategy might have a 4% strike rate, odds range 20-100, average odds 38, longest losing run 133 and an ROI of 24%. I know I'll need to ride out long losing periods and my gut feel is I'd want at least a 200 point bank, probably more. If I plug the above into a basic Kelly calculator it gives me 1.41% as the 'Fraction of bankroll to wager' which equals a 70 point bank. That's way too low in my view.
    2nd scenario - 24% strike rate, average odds 8, longest losing run 22 and an ROI of 37%. The basic Kelly calculator gives 13.14% as my stake %age (!) but my feel is this would work with a 100 point bank.
    I've seen Kelly calculators with options to add multiples for a more cautious bank size (BFBM has a 'Divisor') and maybe I just need to use that but adjust the Divisor based on the average odds?
    I've always used a level stakes approach and that's probably why I'm struggling with the percentage of bank that Kelly calculates. I also need to adjust to the percent of bank betting approach rather level stakes
    Anyway, any thoughts from others with more experience using a percentage approach will be very welcome
    Cheers

  • Horses for Courses or courses for statagys

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    @nigel-stone welcome it's great to have you here! if you get stuck just let me know

  • LTO Beaten Favs.

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    @Andrew-Hopkins For today, yes

  • RF query

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    That's massive bad luck, for two horses at single figure odds to be withdrawn after the off time and then such a big priced outsider going on to win before a retrospective rule four is enforced. Going to be a very rare occurrence, but can be pretty painful when it does happen.

    That's why I tend to do this type of trade with National Hunt races only because there's no messing about with stalls and you can see exactly how everyone is lining up.

  • Lay 2nd Fave Strategy- please review!

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    @Martin thank you as usual Martin

  • Pace Letter question

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    @Danny-Newby It will be horses that are expected to be held up. If they don't yet have enough history to satisfy the pace calculation, their rating will be null and the horse won't appear in the results.

  • Racing Software Inconsistencies

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    Nice one Adam.

    Yea I would be more of the thinking that if certain rules should not be selected at the same time it should just auto unselect them (maybe with a brief flashing animation of the unselected option, to alert user to what just happened)

    Then it will be obvious that those two are incompatible (You could do this with the Max Qualifiers and Fav settings as well, same logic as we previously discussed, isn't it)

    Cheers

  • The Forward Testing Thread

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    @simon-topper said in The Forward Testing Thread:

    @John-Folan This one looks interesting, set it up myself as well.

    Bad downturn in September but only 10% of the years profit

  • Preset dobbing strategy

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    @Andrew Ok, thanks

  • Is anyone actually profitable live trading?

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    Has anyone else found that quite a few strategies seem to have almost flipped round when you compare 2022 with 2023 (nearly a full year of results). Guess the challenge is to crack that and find something that is consistent over the two years of data (I'm ignoring 2021 for now due to covid disruption). Any thoughts?

  • Following the videos and....huh?!

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    @Julian-Drake-Clarke If that's the case then we need to do some work on mobile optimisation!

    Can you let me know the make, model and OS of your tablet and I'll get this fixed ASAP. We want the software to be usable on all devices.

  • cleared cache and cookies

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    @Nigel We did a big audit of the database and in fixing one set of data, I think we zero'd a bunch of values temporarily and it threw off some strategy results.

    Glad it's all back to normal now 👍

  • imported tips error

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    @Brigitta-Nagy the thread is for discussion about BFBM so if you ask there one of the experts on it will help, I am far from an expert on it myself!

  • Not loading

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    @Nigel Wasn't working last night in Chrome but worked in edge.

    Most like like a cache issue.