@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Lay 3rd fav doing well for everyone else this month?

Ive officially abandoned my Lay 3rd fav strategy today. Since you asked this question(27th Aug) Its pretty much not moved. Its shot up to a 30 point gain, nearly hit 40 points then has hovered between 30 and 40 for 3 months. Frankly, I get pissed off when it has a bad day and eats into my L2B profit! So, its done. Slowly find myself heading away from automation and looking to be more in control of my horse racing...

Not to mention I had a mare(no pun intended!) and accidently deleted my original one...along with some others🤣

Horse racing is so frustrating some times. My biggest paydays are still scalping and lay to backs.Neither of which are automated

@Martin said in Question about horse section!:

@Patrik-Mellqvist the horse racing has backtesting yes if that's what you are asking

@Martin

Thanks.
Exactly.

Can I test for one month to validate and explore?
Can I use a month subscription?

If I get what I am looking for after the testing period.
Then can I get the same 3-year deal as with a soccer subscription?

Cheers Patrik

Hi Adam. I was trying to create a back strategy looking for horses that ran below their handicap last time/handicap has been lowered focusing on higher quality handicap races with decent prize money (theory being you know the horses will be trying). My thinking is that a lot of money in these higher quality races will be placed on the favourite/tipped horses by pundits leaving some of the "outsiders" to provide value. Obviously this approach won't be for everyone as there will be long losing runs but wondered if you had any comments on my first stab? Is there any way of testing how it would have performed if the selections had been backed each way? Thanks!

rules_export.json

Full details of tomorrow's update here.

Sorry for clickbaity title, it's accurate though!

I know a lot of people have their strategies set up in the software to bet within the last 10 minutes before the race. Are you aware of just how much the prices move around during that time? Especially these days with Betfair liquidity massively down on what it was even 5 years ago.

What I find now is that even on a solid handicap race, the prices will range much more, somewhere around 2 or 3 ticks either side of the average traded price. So you could do 6 ticks better on the same selection simply by better timing your entry bet! What difference would that make to your results?

I'm planning on introducing some "value maximisation" settings into the Betting Rules in the software. Ideas so far:

Entering a trade at the top or bottom of the selection's recent traded range Predicting the stopping or reversal of a trend (kind of the same as 1 tbh, probably based on MACD or price envelopes) Restricting bets based on the back/lay ratio (gap between the top back and lay prices) "Big bet" detection (Outsized bets coming into the market cause big moves) Betting based on proximity to natural or dynamic support and resistance points (natural resistance points basically being the tick crossover points on the ladder, e.g. 3.0, where the increment changes from 0.02 to 0.05) Liquidity related measures like fill rate, amount of money available at a price Backtesting profit figures with thresholds built in, for example telling you what your profit would have been if you'd taken 1 tick better or worse prices

Some of these are going to be quite intensive to calculate on the fly so this probably isn't a quick thing, and I have no idea if you could replicate them in BFBM (I think BetAngel's automations could handle them), but I'll leave that to them!

Those of you who do manual trading and think about this stuff, and also use the software, do you have any other suggestions or requests?

@Adam OK, Im not that bad😁

I was mind you and do need to see a nice graph! My weakness is courses. Im quick to get rid of the ALL -ROI ones. Ill take a closer look at characteristics in the future...

@Martin dobs strategy from my youtube video is here to download: Dobs (Sept 2024): rules_export.json

@Michael-Chalk I think this is a good idea. I'll have a think about how to implement it!

@Kevin-Pepper that's a really great way to look at it!

@Martin Thanks for clarifying this.

what columns do you want?

Here are the stats highlights from our software today!

Horse Racing - User Guide Here: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/horse-racing-stats/

Terms Glossary:

LTO = Last Time Out

Dobbed = Price reduces 50% In Running, a £10 bet at the off would make £10 profit if price reached, £10 loss if price not reached.

Trobbed = Price reduces 66.67% in running, a £10 bet at the off would make £20 profit if price reached, £10 loss if price not reached.

Beaten Fav = Horse that was a favourite last time out and lost.

Steamed = Horse's price has shortened significantly

Drifted = Horse’s price has got bigger significantly

Class = Similar to divisions in football, so going up in class in theory is stronger competition, down in class weaker horses etc

Haydock 13:25
Furzig
Moved down a class since LTO

Papagei
Moved up a class since LTO

Glasses Up
Moved up a class since LTO

Bangor-On-Dee 13:35
Jumping Susie
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night

Fond Farewell
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 100% since last night

Home Sweet Highway
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Fllana Bay
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night

Ascot 13:50
Obelix
Moved down a class since LTO

Double Time
Has won at distance

Crystal Casque
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Shaladar
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO

Power Of Gold
Moved up a class since LTO

Law Supreme
Has won at distance

Alazwar
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Desert Doctor
Has won at distance
Draw bias = 1.5499999523162842

Dakota Power
Moved up a class since LTO

One Step Beyond
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Draw bias = 1.7100000381469727

Little Empire
Has won at distance

Mumayaz
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night

Haydock 14:00
Grace Angel
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night

Never Dark
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.7999999523162842

Skallywag Bay
Moved up a class since LTO

Copper Knight
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Arecibo
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night

Thunder Star
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

The Coffee Pod
Has won at distance

Kuwait City
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Secret Mistral
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Our Absent Friends
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.6200000047683716

Zaphea
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Bangor-On-Dee 14:10
Simply Red
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Eagle's Realm
Market mover - Price drifted 80% since last night

Presenting Pete
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -43% since last night

Kopa Kilana
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Cawthorne Cracker
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Bangor-On-Dee 14:45
Jumping Jupiter
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night

Ferrobin
Moved down a class since LTO

Time To Tinker
Market mover - Price steamed -52% since last night

Aviewofthestars
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Ten Ten Twenty
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Fenney Brook
Market mover - Price steamed -38% since last night

Bergentown
Has won over course & distance combo

Into The Sunset
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night

Bangor-On-Dee 15:20
Presentandcounting
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course

Riskintheground
Moved down a class since LTO

Before Midnight
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course

Herewegohoney
Moved up a class since LTO

Baron De Midleton
Moved up a class since LTO

Bella Bliss
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Lipa K
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Haydock 15:45
Seal Of Solomon
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Billy No Mates
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Haarar
Moved down a class since LTO

Gifted Angel
Moved down a class since LTO

Lunar Jet
Market mover - Price drifted 56% since last night

Down Royal 15:50
Mint Man
Moved down a class since LTO

Bangor-On-Dee 15:55
Restandbethankful
Dobbed in 9 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs

Mix Of Clover
Has won over course & distance combo

Dream Jet
Moved up a class since LTO

Malpas
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Nevendon
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Bix Beiderbecke
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Sword Of Fate
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)

Neigh Botha
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Beaten Fave LTO

Guillaume
Moved up a class since LTO

Kilbeggan 16:00
Pahlavi
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Florance
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Ascot 16:10
Dark Thirty
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Look Back Smiling
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5299999713897705
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night

Thunder Blue
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Haydock 16:20
Boardman
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Persuasion
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

The Turpinator
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Yorkshire
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night

Tropez Power
Dobbed in 9 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Abduction
Moved up a class since LTO

Pumalin Park
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night

Tanmawwy
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Thapa Vc
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night

Bangor-On-Dee 16:30
Chinx Of Light
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night

Bucko's Boy
Has won at course

Watergrange Jack
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night

Isthebaropen
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Hardy Boy
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Halifax
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Butler's Brief
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Finisk River
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Clararose
Moved up a class since LTO

Kilbeggan 16:35
Little Mixup
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Drumgill
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

By Your Side
Moved up a class since LTO

Major Barry
Moved up a class since LTO

Walhaan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Striking
Moved up a class since LTO

The Dasher Conway
Has won at course
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Presenting Lad
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Influential Lady
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs

Baltinglass Hill
Moved up a class since LTO

Ascot 16:45
Awaal
Draw bias = 1.7100000381469727

Hafeet Alain
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at distance

Tempus
Has won over course & distance combo

Navagio
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance

Classic
Beaten Fave LTO
Draw bias = 1.5499999523162842

Haydock 16:55
No Nay Nicki
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Gentle Ellen
Market mover - Price steamed -44% since last night

Oscar's Sister
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Has won over course & distance combo

Kristal Klear
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.7400000095367432

Bangor-On-Dee 17:05
Motazzen
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Lady Wormsley
Moved down a class since LTO

Ibiza Rocks
Moved down a class since LTO

Kilbeggan 17:10
Augusta George
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Bright Start
Moved up a class since LTO

Ascot 17:20
Love Billy Boy
Moved down a class since LTO

Smart Vision
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at distance

Zainabb
Market mover - Price drifted 47% since last night

Bangor-On-Dee 17:35
Walk The Moon
Moved up a class since LTO

Tropical Talent
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Grifter
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -56% since last night

Vertical
Moved down a class since LTO

Kilbeggan 17:40
Another Nightmare
Moved down a class since LTO

Craic Eile
Moved down a class since LTO

Thedancingfarrier
Moved down a class since LTO

Cafe Del Mar
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs

Down The Park
Moved down a class since LTO

Oh'herewego
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

He Fitz In
Has won at course

Kilmurry Jj
Beaten Fave LTO

Who's Houdini
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Down Royal 18:05
Astar
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night

Squire Danagher
Moved down a class since LTO

Zoffanien
Moved down a class since LTO

Belgoprince
Beaten Fave LTO

Barnacullia
Moved down a class since LTO

Happy Jacky
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Moved up a class since LTO

Rain
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night

Sceptred Isle
Moved up a class since LTO

Charlie Darling
Moved up a class since LTO

Kilbeggan 18:15
Ceroc
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)

El Champo
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Inforapenny
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Beaten Fave LTO

Robin Elite
Moved up a class since LTO

Miss Gherkin
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Moved down a class since LTO

Down Royal 18:40
French Company
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 4.25

Arch Enemy
Moved down a class since LTO

Bringsty
Moved down a class since LTO

Bright N Shine
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -36% since last night

Explorers Way
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at course

Avatar Jet
Moved down a class since LTO

Wajaaha
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 4.25

Tartaraghan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Kilbeggan 18:50
Charlie Luciano
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Watch The Weather
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO

Everglow
Has won at course

Clifftop
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

Miss Agusta
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO

General Clermont
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO

Sargent Lightfoot
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Kilashee
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO

Down Royal 19:10
Beautiful Chaos
Moved down a class since LTO

Sir Allen
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 2.380000114440918

Enquire Within
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Figurehead
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Wild Shot
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Albion Princess
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs

Bigz Belief
Moved down a class since LTO

Kempton 20:30
Enochdhu
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO

Sonnerie Power
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo

Roost
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO

Capstan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at course

Grigio
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Kempton 21:00
Hiatus
Has won over course & distance combo

Soar Above
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Another Baar
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO

Fierce
Moved up a class since LTO

Beyond Equal
Has won over course & distance combo

Tremblant
Moved down a class since LTO

Big R
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO

Gherkin
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Vitalline
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO

Thanks,

Martin
Betfair Trading Tutor

@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@John-Folan what you getting done in Turkey?

Teeth, hair transplant, tummy tuck and a face lift 😂

@Adam said in Question About BSP Place Markets:

@Michael-Chalk We get the place prices in a file from Betfair and the event name is still listed as "To Be Placed". BF don't seem to offer this market as a single entity any more on the website.

I think the price is taken from the TBP market with the same number of places as the Each Way market.

Nice and simple 🙄

Betfair don't make life easy for you do they!

@Wayne-Thomas OK thank you Wayne, I will follow with interst ,I noticed 4 possible bets yesterday and 4 winners.

@Adam Thanks Adam. No worries. I know you're a busy man and it's certainly not a pressing problem. That's a good workaround. Thanks for your help.

We only have the full price history for the win market currently but will be adding other markets in future.

It's possible to add the place BSP as a column in the trades results, but it's not currently possible to filter on the place / each way odds.

@James-Mitchell said in DOB% Quesiton - 13/05 (1.47 Catterick):

Is there a benchmark figure or is literally any amount matched at the lowest point in play for said runner?

It's the lowest price with at least £1 matched. We're looking at ways of providing some liquidity settings so you can change the minimum amount matched for things like this 👍

@Adam Fantastic Thanks for the Update