100 DAYS OF VALUE: AN ASPIRING FOOTBALL TRADER'S JOURNEY
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I've been trading/betting on football for the last few years at a novice level, with limited success - mostly treading water with small wins and small losses. This "challenge" is as much about accountability and self-discipline as it is about improving results. Too many traders hop between systems, endlessly tweak strategies, and struggle to stick to one thing (myself included!!). I want to break that cycle.
I work full-time, I have a wife and two children under 12, and life can be busy. That means while I'll be as committed as possible to this challenge, it won't always be 100% possible. But I'll show up, stay consistent, and see where this journey takes me. My long-term goal isn't to quit my job, but to eventually supplement my income through football trading - enough to reduce the need for overtime and to create more financial flexibility. I want to be earning £1,000 to £2,000 per month on average from football trading within 5 years.
For the next 100 days, I'll be sharing my journey using two structured, data-driven systems. Since September 2023, my In-Play Half-Time System has tracked over 1,600 matches across 25+ leagues, focusing on second-half goal markets when a game is 0-0 at half-time. My Pre-Match System has tracked over 3,000 matches from 50+ leagues, identifying value in goal markets (over/under 2.5, 3.5 etc.) and full-time results, along with many other major markets.
Each morning (where possible), I'll post potential selections based on the data, with final picks shared 10-15 minutes before kick-off. Weekends will be quieter due to time constraints, but I'll aim for consistency during the week.
This is a test of discipline, patience, and trust in the numbers. Feel free to follow along, ask questions, and let's see where 100 days (or more?!) takes us.
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@Alex-Rendell excellent write up! Following these with interest!
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31/01/25 (Day 3):
We may well have some action today, providing I'm about to post the selections in time!
Pre-match games that could potentially fit the bill are:-
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Wil v Xamax (Switzerland Challenge League) - great value in a first-half goal (FHG) and lay the draw (LTD) tonight, but I'll likely be backing over 2.5 goals (+2.5) if the odds hold;
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Bremen v Mainz (Germany Bundesliga) - I'm looking at a possible FHG OR over 3.5 goals (+3.5);
In-Play games that could qualify for overs/unders if 0-0 at half-time and the odds suit:-
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5 of the 8 Israel Liga Leumit matches kicking off this afternoon (UK time);
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Eyupspor v Sivasspor and Konyaspor v Bodrumspor (Turkey Super Lig);
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Pacos de Ferreira v Leixoes (Portugal Segunda);
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Unirea Slobozia v Dinamo Bucuresti (Romania Liga 1);
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Dordrecht v De Graafschap and Den Bosch v Volendam (Netherlands Eerste);
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Eldense v Granada (Spain La Liga 2);
This list isn't exhaustive; some matches may drop off and others may fall in later on but I'll update as and when I can.
LET'S GO!
BET 1: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Eyupspor v Sivasspor - 1 point BACK on Under 1.5 goals @ 2.12 odds (first-half red card may well put a spanner in the works but I am simply following the historical data)
(+1.09 points)BET 2: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Pacos Ferreira v Leixoes - 1 point BACK on Over 1.5 goals @ 2.78 odds 0-0
(-1 point)BET 3: Pre-Match - Wil v Xamax - 1 point BACK on Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 odds 2-0
(-1 point)BET 4: Pre-Match - Bremen v Mainz - 1 point BACK on Over 3.5 goals @ 3.25 odds 1-0
(-1 point)RUNNING TOTAL: -1.91 points
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@Alex-Rendell Good effort, Alex, I am doing a similar thing and as Ryan says, sometimes there are good months and sometimes there are not so good months, but it probably evens out in the long run (in the right direction hopefully!)
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@Alex-Rendell Nail on the head there.
Its not supposed to add stress its an additional way of generating money that might be great one month and not so good over the next but over the long run it will even out.
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30/01/25 (Day 2): Two overnight 0-0 @ HT qualifiers missed in Mexico, so another quiet day today on the trading front! Looking much better tomorrow with potential action in Israel, Turkey and Germany.
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@Ryan Cheers Ryan, really appreciate that. That's the aim, to make trading fit around my life and not the other way round. Most of us have been guilty of going all-in too quickly, expecting instant results and we just end up burning out when it doesn't go our way.
This is meant to be about consistency, discipline and long-term growth. I'm hoping that if I stick to the data, stay patient and build gradually, I can make this a sustainable part of my income rather than something that only adds extra stress.
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I am buzzing to read this!!
This is going to be a wicked post to follow along with and wish we could have everybody doing something like this.
What I really love here is that you have done this with you in mind, so many traders come in and don't look at how to make their trading fit their life and then they get disheartened when it doesn't work out.
You've done the opposite and aimed to build it around your life. Top man.
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@Martin thank you. Yeah, financial flexibility and freedom is the ultimate goal - it makes such a big difference!
In terms of the systems themselves, I'm all about value, but I haven't been actively tracking results in terms of profit/loss just yet. Since Sept '23, I've been purely gathering data and testing, entering selections that fit into a certain set criteria. Not every selection that comes up is a "value" pick - in fact, most often aren't - so, it's more about building a dataset to strengthen the reliability of that data over time. The more data I gather, the more accurate the implied odds should be, which will hopefully help identifying actual value.
That's why I'm starting now - I've got almost a year and a half's worth of data, and this challenge is about putting it to the test and seeing where I really stand.
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@Alex-Rendell This is great Alex, I will be following with interest.
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@Alex-Rendell said in 100 DAYS OF VALUE: AN ASPIRING FOOTBALL TRADER'S JOURNEY:
My long-term goal isn't to quit my job, but to eventually supplement my income through football trading - enough to reduce the need for overtime and to create more financial flexibility.
This is the way!
Such a great post but this is something specifically I have been thinking a lot about recently, most succesful traders use their money this, have other business interests or even part time work. The financial flexibility makes a huge difference in life.
How have your systems got on so far in testing?
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@Alex-Rendell good luck Alex
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29/01/25 (Day 1): Currently no upcoming selections (typical!)
EDIT @ 11:42am - In League Two tonight there's potential for the Barrow v Doncaster game to qualify if it's 0-0 at half-time (depending on odds).
8pm kick off, UK time.
