Chat GPT predicted France v Croatia FHG and Italy v Germany FHG. It was correct on both counts.

@Everyone how are you all getting on?

I am putting together the finishing touches to the team element of this 😉

You all ready for some friendly competition!

@Nikki-HALSALL said in 🔮⚽ Predict the Winners: Enter the 2025 Football Betting Challenge! ⚽🔮:

@Martin I used to 😂 hate them, now I am learning to trade I loath them

haha love that!

Thursday 20/3/25 (DAY 36):-

No bets/trades for today.

Quick update during the quiet (infuriating) international break - I'm still fully committed to my trading and my strategies, but I've realised I need to step back slightly from the journaling side of things. Between family, kids, a full-time job and everything else that life has to offer, I don't have the time to track every detail like I was before and then have to share it here on this page.

Nothing has changed with my setup or approach, the following strategies continue to run: (pre-match) lay the draw, over 2.5 goals, first and second-half goals, home wins, and a couple of lay strategies in the under 1.5 and home win markets, alongside the in-play system which looks for value at half-time when the score is 0-0. The dataset remains the same and since starting this "diary", it has helped me realise the need to streamline my process to make it more manageable long-term (something that I've already implemented within the first 30 days).

The main difference is that my updates will be less detailed. I won't be tracking individual bet stats like average odds, strike rates or game-by-game breakdowns but instead I'll look to provide regular (weekly) performance overviews so I can still look back on this and assess my progress.

Everything is still going on in the background, but I need to be realistic about my time if I want to sustain this for the full 100 days (and beyond). I'll still be posting, just in a more condensed format.

Cheers.

Lay Away:

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@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Martin This is the graph of one of my L2B selectors. I added 2021 and 22 out of interest. Nice and consistent over 4 years
Screenshot 2025-03-18 124515.png

that's amazing! well done

@ellis-slater here is a template you can use to track it:

Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

Had one of those days I love where I've just been watching films throughout the day.

Not a bad one among them and I'd recommend them all in some capacity.

Past Lives. Korean boy and girl sweethearts separated at 12 when one emigrated to the States.

Both meet many years later when adults with lives of their own. Sweet, sad, moving.

Flora & Son. Irish single mum struggling with her unruly kid suddenly decides she's going to learn guitar. Funny and sweet with a touch of what could be.

The best by far though is a Ken Loach offering called The Old Oak.

Syrian refugees bused into an old mining town are met by hatred and fear. All the racist slurs come out as they are told to go home by many.

Little by little the community begins to offer friendship, welcome and acceptance.

It's the kind of film that gives you hope things can get better.

@Shannon-Townsend If you are using M Office at work, do you have the ability to log into Office 365 from any device at home? This happened to me once and I managed to rescue it. Office 365 is saving all the time so there will be a version somewhere. 😞

Done another 18 draws over the weekend and broke even. Continuing to tweak the selection criteria, and also which legs I run with.

I am going to try without d-d, and bring back 0-0 as 3 of my draws were 0-0

Well, today I will start scalping instead of paper trading.

Raw Rules:

Odds for Over 1.5 goals market 1.15 or less.
Most games will have a second half current score line at 6+

Will pick one scalp each day, if available, between time-slots 20:00 to 21:00, where I pick the available game on the list.

If one selected game don't qualified with 6+ odds with current goal market I move to the next game availbal on the list.
If no game is available, no scalping day.

If a winning scalp, I will move into virtual mode using the selection process until a loss occurs and then activate real mode and start entering the next cycle to catch 1 frequency.

This is optional rule, you wait for a fictive win/scalp then enter with real money once, then enter virtual mode until a loss and then repeat the process.
This has to do with how to tackle the Black Swan or when Lady Luck or Variance show its ugly face.
(( I will illustrate both modes with real money))

Today's game 2025-03-08 Spain La Liga
Barcelona vs. Osasuna
Time: 21:00
(( I will apply rule five, so today's game is virtual ))

Summary of this topic:
After showing two real examples with the rules above.
You are free to test and explore on your own.

I know what I intended to do.
2000£ a month.
One scalp each day.
Only picking the market with a turnaround of 100,000£ at the match odds market.
Where the risk is 10,000£ for one Massianello Session.
And the profit 2000£

Why not win 10 to 20 sessions and bust once or less and reach premium charge within one year.
Instead of using multiple trading methods with more work and hours to put in selections each morning, to Fair Bot.

Maybe I test with 5000£ first to get 1000£ if the market's liquidity doesn't cut it ...

All the things I talk about is as close you get to building an algorhtim or marsh using cycles pendulum effect with median values and frequencies.
This is my world to tackle scalping and to reach higher returns with out be a victim of a violated process - thanks to Massianello Formula - and estimated rules and theory ...

@Luke-Edward-Walker you could look at high draw at HT % and then low draw at FT %

@james-everard that is fantastic! Well done mate

@Patrik-Mellqvist yes I agree as I wrote it, it is all about bankroll protection and it is a great way to keep yourself in the game even if you picked a bad strategy to run.

I think quarterly is a good time to do it but you could do it monthly it's really down to what suits the trader.

@Luke-Edward-Walker happens mate! You'll see absolutely everything in this game! As long as you were following a set strategy and stuck to your rules, then there's no reason to shy away from doing it again; it's all about finding something and sticking with it over a long period of time - otherwise you'll never know whether or not it works. Keep at it!

Feb was dire...12 wins out of 23 games for a 52% SR and a 5 point loss. Running total, +12.

In the separate super rugby strategy where Ive raised the stakes to £5 its 7 from 11 for a 64% SR and a one point loss. Not a roaring start by any means but at least my team the Chiefs are winning! Think Ill be looking at tightening up the odds range at some stage, but letting things run as is for now

February was a shocking month with all the profits from previous months wiped out. I think for next season flat staking would be the way to go, rather than 2% of the bank each month.

However, that was my challenge, so staking back to 2%

e1237f52-48c5-4840-b325-cace101a5542-image.png

Serie A and Liga Portugal both still in profit

ab01c455-8bf1-4f23-a1d6-33b830d4c926-image.png

56c0925f-709e-4493-ba03-5edf19886a6e-image.png

But the Prem has fallen right off

43df2571-b46f-4f13-abb2-585ee257c9db-image.png

Will see what March brings!

@Leon-Farrell in the General settings for a strategy there's a Max number of bets per runner setting. Is that set as 1?

ok thanks martin

Great post, this is something I always keep an eye on, brings home the benefits of longer term testing. If you rely on goals to win in your strategy and you know you're profitable when goals are at usual levels, then just hang in there, because once goals hit 3+ a game then you'll likely benefit hugely.