1-1, the run continues

@Craig-Greenway

Good call sir!

I can't stop playing Star Wars Outlaws!

England definitely looking more threatening with seam now. Pakistan have only 1 seamer in their 11. Could be a factor later in the test.

@james-everard yes winter leagues about to kick in big time!

@Patrik-Mellqvist Thank you, that is a good bit of reading for me later on, written by people with a lot of experience.

Hi Adam. I was trying to create a back strategy looking for horses that ran below their handicap last time/handicap has been lowered focusing on higher quality handicap races with decent prize money (theory being you know the horses will be trying). My thinking is that a lot of money in these higher quality races will be placed on the favourite/tipped horses by pundits leaving some of the "outsiders" to provide value. Obviously this approach won't be for everyone as there will be long losing runs but wondered if you had any comments on my first stab? Is there any way of testing how it would have performed if the selections had been backed each way? Thanks!

rules_export.json

@Alex-Rendell hello. Thanks for your reply, I have already tweaked both leagues and odds on all of the strategies except the lay the draw set and forget. The last deep dive I did into the strategies was back on January 1st. I think I will have to have another look into the leagues and odds to see if that improves it. But do it in a way that is not an obvious back fit.

Today I will show what I consider a good foundation of estimations or a raw sketch of parameters or criteria considered before the trading opportunity.

Let's say the strategy is as follows

I want a favorite with odds of 1.5 and below and they won more matches than underdog.

I want the ranking table positions to be top to middle top to bottom or middle to bottom and no other ranking positions.

The favorite won 60% out of 10 previous and the underdog won 70% out of 10 earlier on the same surface and would not qualify.
However, a 70% win ratio for the favorite and a 30% or less win ratio for the underdog would give the green light for deeper analyses.

Now we could look into previous games' break points and comeback ratios with the model mentioned above for each game.

Here we can compare to soccer with no goals at the 70-minute mark to make Time Decay Value in Tennis Match and Hedge for a TIE with no loss.

I just sum it up like that and wish all the best as I have no interest in teaching when there is no interest in this topic.
I will just make the winning model and post the results of my winning trades.

Simple as that, Smile ...

Further, if you build an algorithm ... consider the following ...
Tennis Prediction Algorithm

Skills
Head to Head
Rating and countries
Current form
Tiredness and retiring
Tournament

Upon this probability calculation is made

The analysis is split into Three parts

Three Periods

In the first interval, all matches played in the last 365 Days
The second interval, 730 Days excluding the 365
In the third interval, all matches during the career excluding

Full details of tomorrow's update here.

@Samuel-Barrett I am glad you support Liverpool 😉 amazing season us boys are having so far. Love the control we seem to have now, was looking at some stats at the shots we let teams have and it's scary how we don't let them in the box often.

@Victor-Flores Wicked! Thank you for joining, where did you first hear about us?

I am glad you are following what's been laid out that is key as it will get you using the software the best way.

@Patrik-Mellqvist ok so you have completely different filters that is why the selections you expect are not showing.

'H2 over 0.5' means over 0.5 in the second half (either team in the match could score)
'Scored' means the specific team would have to have scored, not either team in the match, so much less chance a team scores 60% of the time, than either team scores 20%.

You need to use the same metric for both filters if you want to get the matches pop up on both. So for example you can choose 'Home' 'Scored in H2' rather than 'H2 over 0.5'.

Hope that makes sense.

@Victor-Flores that's great to hear, when people start treating it like a job they take it more seriously!

@Arran-Shackell These odds you will only need just over 20% strike rate to break even, get to 25%-30% make good profits

Sorry for clickbaity title, it's accurate though!

I know a lot of people have their strategies set up in the software to bet within the last 10 minutes before the race. Are you aware of just how much the prices move around during that time? Especially these days with Betfair liquidity massively down on what it was even 5 years ago.

What I find now is that even on a solid handicap race, the prices will range much more, somewhere around 2 or 3 ticks either side of the average traded price. So you could do 6 ticks better on the same selection simply by better timing your entry bet! What difference would that make to your results?

I'm planning on introducing some "value maximisation" settings into the Betting Rules in the software. Ideas so far:

Entering a trade at the top or bottom of the selection's recent traded range Predicting the stopping or reversal of a trend (kind of the same as 1 tbh, probably based on MACD or price envelopes) Restricting bets based on the back/lay ratio (gap between the top back and lay prices) "Big bet" detection (Outsized bets coming into the market cause big moves) Betting based on proximity to natural or dynamic support and resistance points (natural resistance points basically being the tick crossover points on the ladder, e.g. 3.0, where the increment changes from 0.02 to 0.05) Liquidity related measures like fill rate, amount of money available at a price Backtesting profit figures with thresholds built in, for example telling you what your profit would have been if you'd taken 1 tick better or worse prices

Some of these are going to be quite intensive to calculate on the fly so this probably isn't a quick thing, and I have no idea if you could replicate them in BFBM (I think BetAngel's automations could handle them), but I'll leave that to them!

Those of you who do manual trading and think about this stuff, and also use the software, do you have any other suggestions or requests?

If your entry/exit conditions present themselves multiple times in a match and you're within the boundaries of whatever you've decided to risk on that match then sure.

There's no set "correct" number of trades to place per market, you just need to be re-evaluating as the match progresses based on what's happening in the game and be aware of the increased risk the later it gets due to "dangerous" events making the prices swing wider.

Don't evaluate the next trade based on confidence built in the last one. Evaluate the current conditions on their own merit. Ask yourself whether you'd still be placing that next trade if it was the first trade you were placing for that match.

@Alex-Rendell said in Tennis Simulation Software - Build Playing Model First - Then Execute:

@Patrik-Mellqvist no need for that really - what you say is as clear as mud half the time!

Yes I fully understand - I stand with my point of view and move forward no matter what others think or have as an opinion - and I believe the software is a good way to test and validate tennis strategy - you can think differently - don't affect me

So I will - even if you don't like it - post my thoughts and review of the software after testing ...

Cheers

@Simon-Bates I personally rarely let a bet run, but there's nothing wrong with doing so if you think you have decent value from the bet.

Hedging or partial hedging will remove some or all liability. If you're dripping in your backs then you could drip in your hedge bets as well.

If you want to keep it really simple you could just lay for the exact same stake as you backed, which creates a free bet on that selection (if your selection wins you make a profit, if it doesn't then you lose nothing).

There's no right or wrong answer really, other than ensuring the price is right in the first place, but I wouldn't use the cashout button as you'll never really get a favourable price, as convenient as it is.

Also keep an eye on dangerous match events that could send the price flying if you're betting late in the market.

@Ryan

I changed my mind i am going pro with realistic plans and looking at this pragmatic solution

In Sweden, gambling companies must apply for a license to operate and pay tax
So is not 100% that Betfair and Smarkets will always be around

But I don't see an obstacle I know a solution (mindset)
Search laws and I am free to buy a studio with 1 room and kitchen for as low as 20,000 and above in Middlesbrough then I can get my address with name and ID number and get a skilled citizen agreement with my own UK bank account.

That is realistic to get access to matchbook and betdaq and betfair and smarket and use an apartment for pending between Sweden and UK
When not traveling I use VPN from home

So going pro and making 20/30,000 a year that is a pretty safe investment and solution to secure long term relations to always have access to exchanges

That is my new plan and strategic

Have a nice daythumbnail_IMG_0226.jpg