e339c0da-9808-4d43-a637-f89c927f0a01-image.png

Long way to go yet but this is so far justifying my decision to split the pot and diversify.

@Shannon-Townsend https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/unread

1 out of 3 today so overall a very good weekend... none tomorrow.

Three premier league matches kicked-off at 2:00pm. Only one of them on TV. It’s an absolute travesty. Why should Skysports be dictating what we watch? Outside of the UK can choose which match they want to watch. I’m actually f*****g sick of it

@John-Folan decent starts for me also, dobs 2.83pts up and 13pts up on lay c&d winner

@Wayne-Thomas said in Bet Angel Automation Thread:

@tony-hastie I think you're right about the clear cut favourite at 75mins. I don't see this automation working consistently at 60 minutes.

I have created one this afternoon that fired correctly on all the Championship games. The timings can be adjusted to suit your needs and don't forget to change the staking - it is set to £10 liability at the moment. Needs to be applied to the correct score market.

It relies on weight of money conditions so may go awry if the liquidity is low. Best used on more high profile leagues for the moment. I'm planning on testing some smaller leagues later today.

As always with automation, make sure to test with small stakes or better still in practice mode to make sure you're happy with how it performs. It has only had limited testing.

Let me know how it goes.

0_1683560930635_Lay Current Score (60mins).baf

@Wayne-Thomas Im putting this bot back into production to lay HT score. Just wondering... if I only wanted to lay 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 or 1-1 would it be as simple as deleting all the other rules that arent those scores?

AUS W ENG W
AUS LAY 1.07 want 1.14 stake back and monitor
...
Stake back @1.17 righto lets go ENG
…
We’ll all for nothing ha

RIP David Lynch nobody quite like him. Nobody close.

Most fucked up weird films I've ever seen.

Twin Peaks a cold hard classic and the return to Twin Peaks somehow managed to maintain both the feel of the original and the quality. No drop off at all.

@Andy-Donnelly that's a great point when the dominant teams play the minnows in these leagues where gaps between haves and have nots are huge, the only plus side perhaps is better back odds

@Tony-Hastie said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

I chucked the back home and back away strategies into the football software to see what they brought up...got this a few times now. Back the draw?😁Screenshot 2025-01-14 132032.png

to be fair you would have made a profit backing both as the winner was 3.0+ odds 😄

@Jonathan-McDaid that is a short price! Especially for a Grand Slam, this isn't prime Federer or Nadal is it. He is 2.48 to lay on Betfair so 2.2 is definitely a value lay price.

These are now posted daily here: https://lightspeedstats.com/horse-racing-highlights/

Happy new year all, hopefully a profitable 2025 for everyone coming up.
2024 comes to a end a fortunately up again for December results are as follows for December. Based on £12.90 liability stakes

System 1 - Lay home at K/0 5.0-7.0 ( Check h2h)
Trades 28
won 25
lost 3
s/rate 89.28%
Profit £35.35

System 2
Back under 1.5 goals at k/0( h2h based data) 3.75-4.50 odds
Trades 50
Won 12
lost 38
S/rate 24%
Lost £19.00

System 3
Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D ( 3..0-3.55 odds) Check h2h
Trades 20
Won 8
Lost 12
S/rate 40%
Profit £90.40

So my new bank for January is £1,397.13 , new liability stake at 1% of the bank will be £13.97

I have continued testing various other systems , my injury time goal system that i had previously traded but put on hold in November due a large hit in October , made a profit in November but a very small loss in December.
One of the back the draw systems i have tested for the last two months is looking very promising but i need more data before i potential put into place.
Another system i am adding to my portfolio this month will be Backing over 1.5 First Half Goals odds min 2.42 checking h2h results also.
I have tested since April with a total of 114 results, 54 wins ,lost 60, profit would be £234.63 based on £10 test stakes and the 2% commission

December wasnt overly festive, registering a 4 point loss. 34 wins from 53 games for a 64% SR. Cant even blame the champions and challenge cup which cancelled each other out for a scratch result. December last year was a scratch month so not a good month to be trading rugby possibly!

@Martin I know youve suggested 1000 trades before you look for trends and/or take anything live but with rugby being probably less than a third of the volume of football it may take me the rest of my life to get there! Im at 477 trades recorded now and am seriously considering changing things up when I hit 500. What ya reckon?

@Adam Thank you very much for that explanation, makes far more sense now. I've been trying to build strategies as best I can and naturally to be as accurate as possible, but need to get the basics, right from the very start. Thank you again.

@nick Do you mean the standard 2% commission? Yes they're definitely still charging that, this is specifically about the premium charge on top of that.

@Peter-Adams there aren't any SHG specific stats in the ratings, they tend to cover 90mins

@james-everard Well there have been 5 posts today already, so things are hotting up 🙂 but seriously it would be great to see what people are up to, not to copy them but to learn a few tricks of the trade (pun intended :))

@Nikki-HALSALL It seems like you are perfectly set up for this!

Month 24 of trading.

November was a break even month for me. After 2 years of learning and trading I have decided to take a step back from some of my strategies and just collect the data to get a better idea of performance before trading them.

In the last 2 years I have learnt and figured out a lot. Had I had this information at the start of the process I think I would be much further ahead - but that us part of the process. So, what I have I learnt about myself and trading after 2 years of giving it a go?....

The type of trader I want to be..... I want to be a predominantly Set and Forget trader. I don't want to be sitting in front of my comp on weekends. This means I need to find enough good quality selections that I can make some decent money off that fit the way I want to trade. I have begun this process and will hopefully be able to share the fruits of my labour soon.

Quality over quantity..... for the last 2 years I have chased anything that seemed to make money - even if it was 2% ROI and having to place 50+ bets on a Sat morn. I value my time a lot higher having reflected on this. Therefore I want strategies that have an over 5% ROI as a bare minimum with a decent number of selections each month.

Data collection is key... I have found myself getting frustrated at strategies that seem to work when paper trading then as soon as you go live they fail. I had a rule about going live after 3 months of collection. This I think is too ambitious and can lead to false expectations. I plan to now collect a few hundred results before even using small stakes. This will save time trading and ensure that when the time is right I will have more confidence in my strats.

Give myself credit.... it can be very easy to look at my overall losses and think "wow, what a waste" - but I need to take the long view and understand that like setting up a new business the chances are you are going loose money on your first year or two. Compared to a uni degree or college course I have spent a fraction. And I know the long term gains will pay for that with ease.

Overall I am happy with where I am - I'm still in the fight and have some very exciting strategies that will work better for how I want to trade. After two years of finding my feet I'm ready for the big leagues - let's do it!

This conclusion is based on my experience and testing.
You might get results other than mine and are free to speak up.

First out ...
SHG "any score line" at 1.4 between 60/64 min mark.
Run several weekends with Fairbot and it did not perform as expected.

Update with the next test ...
Richards SHG at 1.2 Set & Forget

Cheers