@Najib-Bakhat tagging you as this is the thread that the podcast originated from

Away Lays:

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None of these likely based on current odds. All need to come out to around 5's to lay

@Ryan said in Winning Edge Teams & XP Tracker & Leaderboard:

@Patrik-Mellqvist Amazing, you’ve really taken all of this in and ran with it really impressive stuff.

Ryan - I am grateful for this - it is an eye-opener -

Ideas where the majority will probably be discarded—but I estimate at least two or three good things will come out of this.
And you know the expression all good things are three 🙂

Well, as BTC have this in their arsenal and would not promote a losing journey, and the stats indicate the true value of success.
So I could just start staking a decent stake and run Set & Forget knowing I will have a success rate.

But then I would miss out on Ryan's crucial lesson and knowledge.
Is the journey to develop and understand the market mechanism?
And from that, see overreactions and other crucial in-play angles.

After that match with try and error to see what fits into that framework you have with statistical data and side information.
That is why the comment field and the mental process is never the less as important as the statistical results.
They go hand in hand with each other.

Now this journey can also be made with already existing filters.
Because our personal preferences might see other things others didn't see or have the approach of other trading tools to test and see other opportunities.

@Tony-Hastie it clearly knows it's stuff 😄

@Patrik-Mellqvist be interested to see how it performs!

@Jakub-Zielinski welcome great to have you here!

I learn from my own wisdom LOL

I will use the 12-minute mark entering for trade as Each Day 10
But not Scalp/Trade 5/6 min mark for 10% return.

I will test the whole 10 min or when reaching the goal of 20% return.
If possible, I will simulate this today with odds 3,5 to 4,8.
With back-dripping to reduce overall loss ratio, the excellent pendulum effect is achieved.

What is the point - well, this is the point.
Most goals peak statistically at and after the 15-minute mark.
And also read that peaks of goals around the 30 to 45 min mark.
Hey, why 0-0 price drop dramatically - market behaviour.

So instead of 10 to 20 min mark with odds 3 to 4 and back-dripping for 10% i will try do the exact same with the following difference where market and traders overall think differently.

To achieve 20% return with the same methodology.
What is the mechanism that triggers this higher return.
Markets' expectation at 12 min mark to 22 min mark - goal wise -
Markets odds - expectation wise - 3,5 to 4.8 to lay.

That is the theoretical framework for stronger time-decay and drifting price movement against the market's expectation.
The in-play indicators are a key factor here to get a tendency towards matchreading for the present attack mode, tempomode or active/slow or low/high likelihood for goal attempts.

With this saying also mention that one loss with original gave higher loss ration then 1 in 5 with one past trade with this parameters.
But that situation was from the original setup - so potential 20% return and back-dripping I might get around 1 in 4 or less.
That the simulation and real-life trading will tell.

But with a higher liquidity game, I will stick to my original plan.
In lower liquidity games, I will test this out with 10£ trades.
So explore the possibility and see how well my educated guess or framework comes true with real-time stats from live trading.

Cheers

sorry ignore my request as I already have this strategy .

Hi all,
Just watched your late goal after 74 mins video on youtube, any chance of the filter?
Thanks

I’ve started revisiting older strategies but restricting from 2023 onwards.

LTBF is looking interesting. Will post more in a few days. They aren’t going to make you a millionaire overnight but with sensible staking should provide an income.

Covid really did knock horse form.

@Adam Lol make Jim from INEOS is in charge?

@Shannon-Townsend am excited to see where this takes me and feel that i now have enough discipline to accept a loss and move on rather than being tempted to stay in the trade etc...

that is a huge step forward for any trader, well done!

Evening all an update for April. A very poor month indeed so much so i will be cutting back on some of the systems to paper trade these instead for a while

System 1 -Back under 1.5 goals ft version D (3-0-3.55 Odds) check h2h
Trades 18
won 5
lost 13
s/rate 27.78%
Lost £75.87

System 2- Back draw at k/o version M(H2H Based)3.80-4.50 odds, check elo and league positions
Trades 29
won 6
lost 23%
s/rate 20.69%
Lost £192.15

System 3
Back under 2.5 goals Ft (odds 2.0+)check h2h
Trades 66
won 29
lost 37
s/rate 43.94%
lost £156.20

System 4 - Lay home at k/o 5.0-6.0 (check h2h)
Trades 20
won 17
lost 3
s/rate 85%
Lost £0.40p

System 5- Lay Under 2.5 goals H2 Goals( Odds 1.30 below at h/t)
Trades 16
Won 2
lost 14
s/rate 12.50%
Lost £89.46

System 6- Back over 1.5 FH Goals (odds 2.42+) check h2h
Trades 31
Won 13
Lost 18
s/rate 41.93%
Profit £34.12

So a big loss, my biggest loss in trading for a couple of years. With the end of season now approaching for the winter leagues most i won't be trading now anyway. My rules are once teams have 5 games left of the season i stop trading these matches.
Two systems i will continue this month will be laying the home side and backing over 1.5 first half goals, the others back to paper trading along with various other systems i am recording data on.
Dust myself down and come back refreshed, new bank has been reduced from £1728.16 down to £1282.32, new 1% liability stakes of £12.82

What is your trading personality?

I made a decision last night!
I feel my comfort zone when having a high strike rate and modest return, and reasonable loss.

10% return and 50% loss give 1 in 5 for break-even.
And the strike ratio is between 85/95/100% overall.

Now to the core of this topic - my majority trading is for no goals.
Cold methods and not hot methods.

That is an key changer for me, because I have higher success with those then the other way around.
So why not turn that into my task and journey to walk when is works for me.

What are the benefits?
Based upon my opinion and experience.

The in-play stats indications are crucial.
As close as you get to match-reading from home.

Where you can estimate slow and low tempo and attacking play.
Where the likelihood and probability tendency for no goals are overwhelming.

Sure, the other way also works with for example,e 15 points with corners and shots on/off target.
But in my book, the other way around is even more effective.
3 shots off-target exit or 1 shot on-target exit.

My successes are the following ...

One scalping method (Thank you BTC)
One 10-20 min strategy (Thank you TTM)
One method from Ben (Thank you UFT)

Other benefits are that you can create LEVERAGE to make more aggressive attacks to boost profits 2x or 5x or even 10x ...

This doesn't mean that I not using other ways.
But this is my core methods that are tailored for my personality optional comfort zone that I feel and encounter succes.

Cheers Patrik

@Petar-0 welcome! Great to have you here. Your translator seems to be working well. If you need help with anything feel free to ask me any questions 🙂

@Martin said in Netflix/Amazon/Gaming and Book Recommendations:

@Richard-Latimer

A Thousand Blows on Disney+ is best thing they have put out on the service IMO, Stephen Graham and creator of Peaky Blinders.

Stephen Graham is brilliant in almost anything. Adolescence is on my list to watch soon.