Lay Under 1.5:

89b85bc9-3cea-4ce3-8ce5-4e18032fa088-image.png

Now after the last goodness knows how many months of losing I'll take a 2/3 on these and break even for the rest of the month. I just need to make some kind of profit and stop the rot. Clearly a 3/3 would be amazing right now but let's see.

Update for April , still paper trading lots of strategies in the hope come September that i will have enough data to potential start trading with real money again. I have done what i don't normally do by recording data on all matches even though coming to a close of the season seeing if any systems perform poorly . Based on £10 stakes

System 1- BACK AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS ODDS 8.0+( New strategy for April)
April 26- Trades 30 , won 4 , lost 26, s/rate 13.33% profit £101.62

System 2- INJURY TIME GOAL VER B ( LAST 5 MATCHES ) odds 1.30 below
April 26- Trades 87, won 25, lost 62, s/rate 28.74% Profit £229.50
Total Trades since Feb26- Trades 174, won 52, lost 122, s/rate 29.88% profit £592.26

System 3- LAY U2.5 H1 GOALS ( ODDS 1.40 BELOW)
April 26- Trades 78, won 13,lost 65, s/rate 16.67% lost £13.78
Total trades since jan26- Trades 192, won 34, lost 158, s/rate 17.71% profit £219.75

System 4- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERS B( CHECK LEAGUE POS)
April 26- Trades 72, won 13, lost 59, s/rate 18.06% profit £176.36
Total trades recorded since Nov 25, -Trades 293, won 45, lost 248, s/r 15.38% profit £275.74

System 5- BACK OVER 1.5 H2 GOALS ( ODDS 2.0+ CHECK H2H 50%+)
April 26, trades 7 , won 5, lost 2, s/r 71.43% profit £34.09
Total trades since Jan26, trades 36, won 21, lost 15, s/r 58.33% profit £74.60

System 6- BACK OVER 2.5 GOALS FT VERS B( 2.0+ CHECK H2H 50%+)
April 26, Trades 138, won 53,lost 85, s/r 38.40% Lost £216.73
Total trades recorded since Nov 25, Trades 1024,won 478, lost 546, s/r 46.68% profit £407.83

System 7- BACK 1-1 HT CS (ODDS 6.0+) New system
April 26- Trades 10, won 2, lost 8, s/rate 20% profit £82.68

System 8 - BACK 2-1 FT CS VER A( CHECK ELO HIGHER HOME) NEW
April 26- Trades 62, won 9 , lost 53,s/r 14.52% profit £295.16

System 9 - INJURY TIME GOAL LAST 10
April 26- Trades 34, won 12, lost 22, s/r 35.29% profit £232.52
Total trades recorded since Jan 25- Trades 238, won 70,lost 168, s/r 29.41% profit £852.66

System 10 - BACK 1ST HALF GOAL ON 40MINS( IF NO GOAL 30-39)
April 26- Trades 34, won 13, lost 21, s/rate 44.74% profit £214.75
Total recorded trades since Jan 26- Trades 136, won 39,lost 97, s/rate 28.68% profit £339.50

system 11- BACK OVER 1.5 H1 GOALS ( 2.0+)
April 26- Trades 9,won 4,lost 5,s/r 44.44% profit £0.76p
Total trades since recorded in March26, trades 22, won 10,lost 12,s/rate 45.45% profit £28.27

System 12- BACK HOME AT K/O ODDS 3.0-3.50
April 26- Trades 42,won 9, lost 33, s/rate 21.43% lost £134.49
Total recorded since august 25- trades 167, won 58,lost 109 ,s/r 34.73% profit £167.74

System 13- BACK DRAW AT K/O VERSION W
April 26- Trades 42, won 13, lost 29, s/rate 30.95% profit £46.14
Total trades since Feb 26- Trades 87, won 22, lost 65,s/rate 25.29% profit £160.66

System 13- BACK 1-0 FT CS VER Q
April 26, Trades 22,won 3,lost 19, s/rate 13.64% profit £7.96
Total trades recorded since feb26- Trades 36, won 7, lost 29, s/rate 19.44% profit £139.24

System 14- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
April 26- Trades 79, won 25,lost 54,s/rate 31.65% profit £107.29
Trades recorded since Jan26- Trades 289,won 96, lost 193, s/r 33.22% profit £515.59

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Alex-Rendell No, I'm just using the basic. It's not ideal as only gives last traded price I think rather than specific back/lay prices. Just come across one game where it's given me a price of 2.62 on Sturm the other day when bookies had priced it up as over 3 on average so I'm not sure when it took that price from. On the whole though it's good enough for me.

Removed that hiccup. It's worth doing. Download python, get AI to show you how to use pandas (yes I know it sounds weird haha!) and I'll post the full script as it's taken me ages to get AI to give me what I really needed.

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

f = (((b-1)*p) – (1-p)) / (b-1)

Where:

f = fraction of your bank roll to stake b = current available betting odds for selection p = true probability of winning

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

f = (((4-1) * 0.3) - (1-0.3)) / (4-1) f = 0.0667 stake = 0.0667 * 1000 = £66.70

POTENTIAL QUALIFIERS — FRIDAY 24 APRIL 2026

12:30 | Singapore S-League
Tampines v Young Lions
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59

17:00 | Austria 2. Liga
Bregenz v Hertha Wels
Away Win | Home Win 2.25–4.95
Lay Home Win | Home Win 2.25–4.95
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.4–1.59
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
Home Win | Home Win 1.44–2.5
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.44–2.5

17:00 | Poland Ekstraklasa
Zaglebie v Termalica B-B.
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.6–1.77
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 2.21–2.5
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 2.21–2.5
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95
Draw | Draw 3.51–3.75

17:30 | Germany 2. Bundesliga
Kaiserslautern v Braunschweig
Away Win | Home Win 2.25–4.95
Lay Home Win | Home Win 2.25–4.95
Draw | Draw 3.76–4
Home Win | Home Win 2.26–2.5
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.81–1.95
Home Win | Home Win 1.44–1.75
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.44–1.75
1FH Goal @ 20 (0-0) | State: 0 · T=20min · FH
1FH Goal @ 20 (1 Goal) | State: 1 · T=20min · FH
1FH Goal @ 25 (1 Goal) | State: 1 · T=25min · FH

18:00 | Germany 3. Liga
Alemannia Aachen v Duisburg
Draw | Draw 3.76–4.2
Home Win | Home Win 1.99–2.5
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.99–2.5
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.96–2.5
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.96–2.5
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.44–1.98
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95
Away Win | Home Win 3.01–3.75
Lay Home Win | Home Win 3.01–3.75
1FH Goal @ 15 (0-0) | State: 0 · T=15min · FH
1FH Goal @ 30 (1 Goal) | State: 1 · T=30min · FH

18:00 | Turkey Süper Lig
Basaksehir v Kasimpasa
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.6–1.77
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.39
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.39
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.96–2.2
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.76–2
Home Win | Home Win 1.99–2.5
Draw | Draw 3.25–3.75
1FH Goal @ 15 (0-0) | State: 0 · T=15min · FH

19:00 | Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Eindhoven FC v Helmond
Home Win | Home Win 1.76–2
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.76–2
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
Away Win | Home Win 2.76–3.25
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95

19:00 | Netherlands Eerste Divisie
FC Emmen v De Graafschap
Away Win | Home Win 2.76–3.25
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
Lay Home Win | Home Win 2.25–4.95
Draw | Draw 3.25–4.95
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
Home Win | Home Win 1.76–2
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.76–2
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals 1.6–1.95

19:00 | Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax v Jong Utrecht
Away Win | Home Win 2.76–3.25
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
Home Win | Home Win 1.76–2
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.76–2

19:00 | Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ v Roda
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
Lay Home Win | Home Win 2.25–4.95
Draw | Draw 3.25–4.95
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals 1.6–1.95

19:00 | Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Maastricht v Oss
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
Home Win | Home Win 1.76–2
Away Win | Home Win 2.76–3.25
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.76–2

19:00 | Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk v Jong PSV
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
Home Win | Home Win 1.76–2
Away Win | Home Win 2.76–3.25
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.76–2

19:30 | Germany Bundesliga
RB Leipzig v Union Berlin
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.6–1.7
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.6–1.7
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.96–2.5
Draw | Draw 3.76–4
Lay Away Win | Home Win 2.01–2.25
Away Win | Home Win 2.25–2.75
Lay Home Win | Home Win 2.25–2.75
1FH Goal @ 15 (0-0) | State: 0 · T=15min · FH

19:30 | Poland Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia v Gornik Zabrze
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.2–1.59
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 1.6–1.77
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 2.21–2.5
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 2.21–2.5
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95
Draw | Draw 3.51–3.75

19:45 | Italy Serie A
Napoli v Cremonese
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.71–1.8
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.6–1.77
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals 2.21–2.5
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals 2.21–2.5
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.44–1.98
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.99–2.5
Draw | Draw 3.25–3.75
Draw | Draw 3.76–4.95

20:00 | England Premier League
Sunderland v Nottingham
Away Win | Home Win 2.25–3
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals 1.4–1.59
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals 1.4–1.59
Lay Away Win | Home Win 1.44–1.98
Draw | Draw 4.21–4.95
Draw | Draw 3.76–4
Draw | Draw 4.01–4.95
1FH Goal @ 20 (0-0) | State: 0 · T=20min · FH
1FH Goal @ 15 (0-0) | State: 0 · T=15min · FH
1FH Goal @ 20 (1 Goal) | State: 1 · T=20min · FH

@Everyone:

We've made some improvements to our Betfair price grabber that provides the prices for the backtesting.

Previously, we took a price snapshot once per second and wrote that to the DB for later retrieval in your strategies. 1-second intervals are obviously pretty granular (already resulting in about 10 million price snapshots per month of data 🤣 ) and provide a good indicator of price trends and entry / exit points.

However when a race goes in-play, the prices obviously become very volatile and we've seen that the price can easily dip below or surge above the "snapshotted" price between snapshots, often for significant enough traded amounts that you would want to be aware of it in backtesting (where you're basically always interested in whether the price touched a particular level).

To solve this problem without literally writing every tick to the database and needing a data-centre to rival OpenAI's, we're now analysing the ticks that make up each snapshot in memory and then storing the highest and lowest values as the snapshots.

The upshot of this is a more reliable indication of whether your entry or exit price was hit and therefore a closer correlation between your simulated backtesting results and your real life trading.

This will most benefit people who are exiting their trades in-running, or those doing lay the field type strategies.

@Ryan I would have cashed out when the underdog scored for a very small loss and that would have meant a profitable day 🙂

My new manta is "protect you bank" which is helping with discipline.

@Chris-King very interested in your selection filters. So what angle do you trade using your filters. I can see that you are identifying a strong underdog. Are you looking to back the dog pre match and hope they make a fast start and win the 1st set?

@Simon-Hardy-0:

To find the higher ranked player, filter on:
Player -> Total -> Rank -> less than -> Total for opposition

The problem is you can't then do "price for this player" unfortunately. You can filter on the BF prices via Betfair -> Odds but only referencing specific selections.

If you have the "BF Prices" tab open in the main view, filter on the rank as above and then click each match in the filter results table, you should be able to narrow it down pretty quick.

Cheers fella

Not updated for a while but LTD still going in right direction just slow due to kids and life in general meaning i am busy when most trades are happening but the ones i catch seem to be generating small profit.

have just started (paper) trading half dobs on the horse racing and if this works then that would be amazing as i am buy my computer all day for these... we will see.

@Lee-Greener No worries, we'll disable the non-scope version of that strategy rule in a future update (like we do with "horse position") as it's literally impossible to use to backtest an upcoming race!

Ive traded the power play on 2 games in this T20 WC, both With the Black caps batting first....and the kiwis have not let me down!(although went on to lose v South Africa)Screenshot 2026-02-27 135837.png

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

I have a similar one, these are my settings:

1b96ccaa-04a5-45e3-a62c-7e32e6f665f0-image.png

I don't bother with the "Sport Specific" ones, and more often than not it trades out for profit after the 1st goal, provided its early enough.

@Adam Fantastic, thanks very much! 🙂

@Shanice-Jackson Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@Martin Many thanks for your help so far. Appreciated.

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

Happy New Year!

Watched the videos — really good stuff. Had a 7-hour car journey so I smashed through the podcasts as well, some of them more than once.

I’ve been trading LTD and FHG using 2% of the bank and after just two trades this morning I’m already not far off doubling my original bankroll.

I’m big on stats and the software just makes everything feel smoother and easier to manage. I’m pretty strict with discipline too — some days one bet hit the target and that’s it, I was done for the day.