@Gary-Calvert I was using 'trade out 2nd bet' as well as 'hedge or close position' I will give this a go instead and see if it works better. One thing I have had an issue with is it just trades out 30 seconds after official start time, not real start time.

@Lee-Greener yeah I use automation for horses for that reason, it depends how much you want to sit in front of the screen I guess!

Friday 28/03/25 (Day 38)

Potential selections today come from the following:-

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Hapoel Nof HaGalil (1pm) - this was a LTD and SHG goal trade, ended 1-1 after being 0-0 @ HT so the latter won but the former lost, although it could’ve been traded for a small profit which is something I’m very much looking to do going forward. Volume and liquidity was very poor though so may be a league I’ll be leaving alone in future.

Aalborg v Viborg (6pm) - over 2.5, home lay, lay under under 1.5 and SHG trades all popped up for this one. I obviously didn’t get involved in them all but the home lay and over 2.5 both proved profitable as it ended 0-4.

Red Star v Rodez (7pm) - lay the draw in the first-half and SHG trades came up for this game and although they were both losers (1-1 @ HT and no SHG), there was plenty of opportunity to trade for a good profit in the first half.

MVV Maastricht v Emmen (7pm) - no bet.

Eindhoven v Helmond (7pm) - this came up as a LTD trade and ended 2-2 so a loser if left to run but could easily have taken profit in the second half .

Amstettan v Rapid Wien II (5pm) - no bet.

Cerezo Osaka v Urawa Reds (10am) - lay home trade which came in thanks to a late second half equaliser. 1-1.

Barry v Newtown (7:45pm) - lay the first half draw and BTTS were both successful bets/trades in this game. 2-1.

@Patrik-Mellqvist check the amount of top flight league games taking place this week compared to a "normal" week - it'll all be back to normal at the end of the month.

Done another 18 draws over the weekend and broke even. Continuing to tweak the selection criteria, and also which legs I run with.

I am going to try without d-d, and bring back 0-0 as 3 of my draws were 0-0

Well, today I will start scalping instead of paper trading.

Raw Rules:

Odds for Over 1.5 goals market 1.15 or less.
Most games will have a second half current score line at 6+

Will pick one scalp each day, if available, between time-slots 20:00 to 21:00, where I pick the available game on the list.

If one selected game don't qualified with 6+ odds with current goal market I move to the next game availbal on the list.
If no game is available, no scalping day.

If a winning scalp, I will move into virtual mode using the selection process until a loss occurs and then activate real mode and start entering the next cycle to catch 1 frequency.

This is optional rule, you wait for a fictive win/scalp then enter with real money once, then enter virtual mode until a loss and then repeat the process.
This has to do with how to tackle the Black Swan or when Lady Luck or Variance show its ugly face.
(( I will illustrate both modes with real money))

Today's game 2025-03-08 Spain La Liga
Barcelona vs. Osasuna
Time: 21:00
(( I will apply rule five, so today's game is virtual ))

Summary of this topic:
After showing two real examples with the rules above.
You are free to test and explore on your own.

I know what I intended to do.
2000£ a month.
One scalp each day.
Only picking the market with a turnaround of 100,000£ at the match odds market.
Where the risk is 10,000£ for one Massianello Session.
And the profit 2000£

Why not win 10 to 20 sessions and bust once or less and reach premium charge within one year.
Instead of using multiple trading methods with more work and hours to put in selections each morning, to Fair Bot.

Maybe I test with 5000£ first to get 1000£ if the market's liquidity doesn't cut it ...

All the things I talk about is as close you get to building an algorhtim or marsh using cycles pendulum effect with median values and frequencies.
This is my world to tackle scalping and to reach higher returns with out be a victim of a violated process - thanks to Massianello Formula - and estimated rules and theory ...

@Luke-Edward-Walker you could look at high draw at HT % and then low draw at FT %

@Patrik-Mellqvist yes I agree as I wrote it, it is all about bankroll protection and it is a great way to keep yourself in the game even if you picked a bad strategy to run.

I think quarterly is a good time to do it but you could do it monthly it's really down to what suits the trader.

@Luke-Edward-Walker happens mate! You'll see absolutely everything in this game! As long as you were following a set strategy and stuck to your rules, then there's no reason to shy away from doing it again; it's all about finding something and sticking with it over a long period of time - otherwise you'll never know whether or not it works. Keep at it!

February was a shocking month with all the profits from previous months wiped out. I think for next season flat staking would be the way to go, rather than 2% of the bank each month.

However, that was my challenge, so staking back to 2%

e1237f52-48c5-4840-b325-cace101a5542-image.png

Serie A and Liga Portugal both still in profit

ab01c455-8bf1-4f23-a1d6-33b830d4c926-image.png

56c0925f-709e-4493-ba03-5edf19886a6e-image.png

But the Prem has fallen right off

43df2571-b46f-4f13-abb2-585ee257c9db-image.png

Will see what March brings!

ok thanks martin

Great post, this is something I always keep an eye on, brings home the benefits of longer term testing. If you rely on goals to win in your strategy and you know you're profitable when goals are at usual levels, then just hang in there, because once goals hit 3+ a game then you'll likely benefit hugely.

@Luke-Edward-Walker I sorted it this morning, let me know if you didn't get the email from me 🙂

@Ian-Thompson Always gentle with everybody here matey, this is a safe place.

When it comes to these I always played the day and not the trade, so what I mean by that is that I would research the games for that day and then weigh up the other opportunities against these if these games were in my view a better opportunity then I would stick with them, if not then I would take the losses as usually it was minimal.

So this is more of a theoretical framework for people to refine, or have you actually tested it in live trading? Filtering for comebacks makes sense in theory, but Betfair odds already factor in a lot of this. Have you checked if this actually finds value compared to market pricing?

Also, things like ranking bands and win percentages aren’t that reliable. Players perform completely differently across hard, clay, and grass, and those stats get skewed fast. Looking at the last 10 matches one player might have just come off a Grand Slam, while the other was playing in Challenger events, so it’s not always a fair comparison.

Have you refined and tested this yourself? How has it been doing?

@Wayne-Thomas said in Bet Angel Automation Thread:

@tony-hastie I think you're right about the clear cut favourite at 75mins. I don't see this automation working consistently at 60 minutes.

I have created one this afternoon that fired correctly on all the Championship games. The timings can be adjusted to suit your needs and don't forget to change the staking - it is set to £10 liability at the moment. Needs to be applied to the correct score market.

It relies on weight of money conditions so may go awry if the liquidity is low. Best used on more high profile leagues for the moment. I'm planning on testing some smaller leagues later today.

As always with automation, make sure to test with small stakes or better still in practice mode to make sure you're happy with how it performs. It has only had limited testing.

Let me know how it goes.

0_1683560930635_Lay Current Score (60mins).baf

@Wayne-Thomas Im putting this bot back into production to lay HT score. Just wondering... if I only wanted to lay 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 or 1-1 would it be as simple as deleting all the other rules that arent those scores?

@Jonathan-McDaid that is a short price! Especially for a Grand Slam, this isn't prime Federer or Nadal is it. He is 2.48 to lay on Betfair so 2.2 is definitely a value lay price.