The Winning Edge Challenge – 3 Simple Steps
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Hey @Everyone,
I’m excited to announce something we’ve been working on for a while...The Winning Edge Challenge.
This challenge is designed to help you move from guessing to executing a real strategy, with daily selections, tracking, and step-by-step support.
We know that so many people need a strategy to get started with so what we have tried to do here is create this.
Important: We aren't saying you will become a profitable trader but we are going to work closely with you to give you the best chance of becoming a profitable trader.
Here’s what you’ll get when you take part:
A Personal Strategy: We’ll pair you with one of our 3 strategies that’s already working for other traders. Daily Selections Delivered to You: No more searching for trades, we shall put the strategy in the software for you. Full Guidance & Feedback: We’ll help you track your progress and refine the strategy to make it work for you.The best part? You’ll start by paper trading to build confidence without risking a penny.
We’ll be right there with you, guiding you every step of the way. This is your chance to stop guessing and start trading like a pro.
Want in? Comment “All In” below, and we’ll send you the details via DM!
Here is the exact steps we shall work through with you.....
Step 1: Get Your Personal Strategy (We’ll Set It Up for You)
Once you get in touch with us we can pair you with a strategy that fits your goals and trading style.We’ll set it up in your software and walk you through how to use it.
No guesswork. No confusion. Just a strategy ready to go.
Step 2: Get Daily Selections & Track Your Progress
You’ll start receiving daily selections automatically from the software (You will have to click the mouse 3 times to get them!).We’ll show you how to add these selections to your tracking sheet, so you can monitor your performance step by step.
Important:
We’ll encourage you to paper trade these selections first to build your confidence and ensure the strategy is a good fit.Step 3: Review & Refine Your Strategy
Once you’ve tracked your results, get back in touch with us.We’ll help you review your performance, provide feedback, and guide you on how to refine and improve the strategy to make it even better.
We shall also use this thread to keep you accountable and share your working with others!
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@Nikki-HALSALL @Ryan @Martin
Thanks for your positive feedback and I'm glad you like the data.
I've looked at the results per league and at this stage I'm not identifying a stand out loser but would suggest that maybe we're not allowing new leagues enough breathing space and that 10 matches (5 per team) is too early an entry point for a new season. For example, on 18th May there were 4 selections from the USA MLS, three of these lost.
Column E and F on my sheet have certain matches highlighted in blue from mid-April. These are 'Nothing To Play For' (NTPF) games where promotion, relegation, play off, euro places etc. are a non possibility for both teams. There have been 31 such selections but only 5 lost. Despite no apparent incentive goals are still going in! This follows on from Nikki's point about the in-play stats not reflecting the goals scored. At the end of the day, whatever criteria we set for a 'set and forget' will be based on history and a probability of what to expect. Football never quite works out like that - it's a funny old game!!
Anyway, on we go and let's see what the summer leagues produce. We're off to a good start with the first Swedish selection last night. First goal on 21 minutes and 1.56 matched.
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@Gwynn-Lewis This is amazing thank you for taking the time to write this up.
I am pretty impressed that you have managed to work this around your life as well and think about how you can get the selections and then get them on, love that.
Top work.
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@Gwynn-Lewis that is a fantastic update!
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@Gwynn-Lewis This is excellent, great data, thanks for sharing.
I think once certain leagues are removed it will show more profit and maybe less volatility perhaps. It soon became apparent that due to the number of matches and the times it would be fantastic to explore a set & forget
On the matches I have been present for the in-play stats at 10-15 mins are also erratic, some matches have zero shots of any kind and then score within 20 mins and others have 3 SOTs each and are 0-0 at HT!!
The surprising stat was the over 0.5 @ HT would have meant a bigger loss, maybe there is something in that? ie back/lay O/U 1.5 depending on odds at HT and get out if no goal before 65-70 mins or if a goal goes in take the loss etc? Or, Or, Or ...........
So much data and so little time
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I attach my updated spreadsheet for the 0.5FH strategy. There are two worksheets - Data and Chart.
DATA
There have been 233 selections between 16/03/25 and 20/05/25 (67 days).
From these are 117 winners, 50 losers and 66 that failed to match due to goal before 15 minutes.
As I cannot trade most matches live I place a trade pre-match (as close to KO as possible) at odds +20. Where I have been able to trade live I find that the 15 minute price is usually around 20 ticks above the SP.
I normally pick up the selections from BTC mid-morning but I note that selections can drop off the list as the day progresses and new ones added due to the moving O2.5 goals price which is part of the selection criteria. I stick to my morning list as I'm not able to pop in and out of BTC during the day.
Current profit is £31.04 to £10 stakes. Had I gone with the SP rather than waiting 15 minutes, profit would be
£22,81. Thirdly, had I placed a second £10 trade on the FT 0.5 market at HT when the score was 0-0 an additional loss of £18.76 would have resulted. I've not been able to proof the odds as often as I would have liked on this second half follow up option, so majority are estimated based on the few I have seen.CHART
This sums up the performance over time and yes, it's a rollercoaster all right!!! A steady climb to over 7 points then we fall right back to a negative position, then a sharp climb back with a steady pattern recently around the 2 to 4 point mark.I'm not a fan of volatility so am very wary of this strategy. If it has been performing well over time then 67 days is a small window to reach any conclusions, but I'm not inclined to up my stakes on what I'm seeing. This is a lot of trading for a small return. I shall keep monitoring, hopefully for a full year, so that I can draw some conclusions.
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All In.
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@Nikki-HALSALL Perfect, its a good time to have the bank holidays as well as its where we are now changing to the summer leagues which have got a few games under their belt so good time to be able to check the data.
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@Ryan Yes its a tough one but i will get round to culling a few leagues and see if it stabilises.
Just trying to edit my current spreadsheet to make analysing data a bit easier, hopefully over the bank Holiday weekend, will report back in soon (ish)
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@Nikki-HALSALL Have you spotted anything in the data that might help spot the dips?
I am going to note this on the strategy notes that it is a roller coaster. I think roller coasters are ok for a strategy if the data works with it, but for me personally I would always take less highs for a more stable strategy.
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@Ryan This strat is a roller coaster - was dipping again to the point where i was going to drop it but still collecting data and it had an unbelievable weekend.
Need to have a proper look there are now 622 matches, this gets a lot of matches per day so will try and have a proper look in the next week, it must have legs. Just got to find them.
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@Nikki-HALSALL Ok so at that strike rate we need an odds of 1.44 to make money, this is interesting as we aren't that far away from that, anything in the data you have spotted that would help that?
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On 10 quid stakes - Ave odds of 1.4 is probably conservative. Ditching the Netherlands would help!!!
P&L ROI Strike Rate Selections Ave Odds
-£162.42 10.47% 69.33% 388 1.40 -
@Gwynn-Lewis Yeh, I am just working on trying to make this system work well for all you guys
Might take me a little bit of time lol! -
@Nikki-HALSALL Bloody ell!!! This is amazing news
How has it been overall? -
The FHG Strat has been on fire the last few days
35 matches with a FHG goal after 10 mins
6 a goal before 10 mins
and just 3 without a FHGStill monitoring rather than trading
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@Nikki-HALSALL
Thanks for your reply. Good to hear from someone in the same situation as myself. This evening was a rare spot of free time for me so I followed live the three selections that the FHG strategy generated.Stuttgart v Heidenheim Pre-match price 1.28 so I added 20 ticks and set my bet at 1.48. The live 15 minute price was 1.61, so I undershot there.
Termalica v Wisla The corresponding prices were 1.34, 1.54 and 1.58, so that was closer
PSG v Nice 1.27, 1.47 1.42. Closer again but I would not have been matched until 18th minute,The Stuttgart game was 0-0 at HT. The FT 0.5 price was 1.22 at that point. Potential here for a live follow on SHG trade I think, especially if the FH stats suggest it's a lively game. On that note, Hoffenheim have just scored (89th minute)!!
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@Ryan Thanks for your positive feedback. Sounds like I'm doing something right! Hope you were able to open the spreadsheet.
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@Gwynn-Lewis That's really interesting. I have the same problem, being present at 10 mins so experimented with getting in at 1.51 but after an initial good start it started to dip a little.
I have stopped trading this but am still gathering results with a view to cutting some leagues or re-assessing odds ie in at 1.41 etc.
Great work re SHG too I hadn't looked at that.
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@Gwynn-Lewis This is bloody brilliant work!
Well done matey! I have a lot of work to do to make sure this up and firing, have a meeting with the boys today and this is on the agenda
I like that even though you cannot follow them live you are sticking with it, this is amazing work.
