The Winning Edge Challenge – 3 Simple Steps
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Hey @Everyone,
I’m excited to announce something we’ve been working on for a while...The Winning Edge Challenge.
This challenge is designed to help you move from guessing to executing a real strategy, with daily selections, tracking, and step-by-step support.
We know that so many people need a strategy to get started with so what we have tried to do here is create this.
Important: We aren't saying you will become a profitable trader but we are going to work closely with you to give you the best chance of becoming a profitable trader.
Here’s what you’ll get when you take part:
A Personal Strategy: We’ll pair you with one of our 3 strategies that’s already working for other traders. Daily Selections Delivered to You: No more searching for trades, we shall put the strategy in the software for you. Full Guidance & Feedback: We’ll help you track your progress and refine the strategy to make it work for you.The best part? You’ll start by paper trading to build confidence without risking a penny.
We’ll be right there with you, guiding you every step of the way. This is your chance to stop guessing and start trading like a pro.
Want in? Comment “All In” below, and we’ll send you the details via DM!
Here is the exact steps we shall work through with you.....
Step 1: Get Your Personal Strategy (We’ll Set It Up for You)
Once you get in touch with us we can pair you with a strategy that fits your goals and trading style.We’ll set it up in your software and walk you through how to use it.
No guesswork. No confusion. Just a strategy ready to go.
Step 2: Get Daily Selections & Track Your Progress
You’ll start receiving daily selections automatically from the software (You will have to click the mouse 3 times to get them!).We’ll show you how to add these selections to your tracking sheet, so you can monitor your performance step by step.
Important:
We’ll encourage you to paper trade these selections first to build your confidence and ensure the strategy is a good fit.Step 3: Review & Refine Your Strategy
Once you’ve tracked your results, get back in touch with us.We’ll help you review your performance, provide feedback, and guide you on how to refine and improve the strategy to make it even better.
We shall also use this thread to keep you accountable and share your working with others!
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@Alex-Rendell As I was working on the spreadsheet this morning I noticed the formula for the No. of selections was picking up the SHG column - now amended and posted below.
It was interesting as some of the leagues that are struggling with FHG were 100% on SHG.
Also have removed about 12 leagues
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing
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@Alex-Rendell thanks - I will chop down the leagues and start gathering extra info, less matches per day and increased quality will make the task easier. I can put the time in too, I have an injury that has cut down my time on the golf course by about 90% so time is my friend at the moment.
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Forgot to mention - if you can possibly track the additional following stats etc then it would make a significant difference:-
HT & FT scores
Home/Draw/Away odds
Over/Under 1.5 FHG Odds- any other markets or odds that you would like to delve deeper into; I can get implied odds for most of them based on scorelines alone but the inclusion of the real odds would be a massive help.
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@Nikki-HALSALL I used ChatGPT to help build my spreadsheet, with numerous tweaks over many months but I've got it to a point now where I'm happy with it and it's easy enough to enter and maintain the data. I'd be more than happy to have a look over any substantial dataset - it's not as if I'm able to steal any secret information from it so it's down to whether or not you can dedicate the time and effort to keeping a more extensive set of records!?
As for the leagues I removed, I can't recall exactly but the only Women's league I kept was the WSL in England as that is probably going to keep growing the most/quickest in the near future. I got rid of the really poor volume/liquidity leagues in countries like India, Lithuania, Jordan etc; I kept the top leagues in the small countries such as the Faroes, Finland and Iceland because there can be some good opportunities here, and even 3. Liga in Germany has decent money in some of those markets. I'd recommend being fairly ruthless and once you get that 1,000 figure down to about 800-850 then you've probably removed enough to begin with.
I also agree that if you have perceived "value" on your side pre-match, based on your own data, then that value should in theory remain in place as the game progresses in-play.
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This is excellent stuff, one of the things that makes a huge difference is cutting losing trades/selections.
So many people focus on more winners, most of the time cuttings the losers is way more powerful, that way you just get rid of a few poor performers or a few mistakes and guess what you increase your average and you've only got to stay above average for a long time to be a solid trader.
We had a trader in here once before who was obsessed with more winners and being in the top 5% of traders in here, you know what happened? He was in the top[ few % but only sometimes, he was also in the bottom % of losing traders I have known as well... because he was obsessed with more winners, which is hard to do... if he focused on things easier to control (getting rid of poor performing leagues, silly mistakes) his average would have increased and he would have been a top top trader.
How many times have you watched a tennis match or a football team and thought they keep making so many mistakes?
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wow @Alex-Rendell, I really need to learn how to collect and interpret data! If you are up for it, I can amend the strategy and ditch the pointless leagues and keep going. Is it possible to tell me which you have ditched or kept whichever list is shortest I will amend and keep going.
Once the matches each day are shorter I can add to the types of data I collect.
And yes you are right this was given to us as a "wait 10 mins" for better odds strategy, that data has been harder to gather, but if there is something at the off then there must be something to work with at the 10 min point.
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(Part 2) - couldn't include header columns, sorry.
That's it (for now)...
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These are leagues with at least 10 selections which had a FHG (part 1) - apologies for the mass blackout but my page semi-crashed so I couldn't do any filtering to remove unnecessary columns; you only need to look at the two far right columns as all FHG% are 100%
Bundesliga looks red hot!
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The only two leagues with at least 10 selections where it was 0-0 at half-time.
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Leagues that have promising early stats but only between 10 and 19 selections ^^^
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So, this is all I'm really able to do at the moment with the data in it's current form (I will show how whether or not there was a FHG affects the SHG % shortly); I've deleted the completely pointless leagues from the dataset, which left ~850 selections and I've filtered out any leagues that have fewer than 20 picks.
The table shows the FHG % for each league, the implied odds for that league (FHG IO), based on the FHG% with an added 5% margin to allow a bit of a buffer, the FHG back and lay P/L for each league, and also the SHG% with implied odds (again with the 5% buffer included).
The Saudis, Poland and Australia look really good for SHG output (although the price is probably reflected in the latter from my experience!)
Estonia and Germany 2 are the only real standouts in the FHG lay market, which is a bit disappointing but the numbers do indicate that even this amount of selections simply isn't enough to draw any definitive conclusions just yet.
Thanks again for doing this, I love this kind of stuff!
More data to follow...
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@Nikki-HALSALL any extra data you can add would definitely be beneficial, but its whether or not you have the time and/or inclination, so its totally up to you but I'd be more than happy to have a deep dive into the new dataset - it's not really extra hassle for me, as its just a case of copying the data into my own template spreadsheet and letting the formula do the hard work.
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@Alex-Rendell I don't but I can if you give me time - very happy to grind it out - and yes there were a few 0-0 but not many. If you think it's worth it I will add goals FH, SH ,Total just say the word.........
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@Martin and all
Thanks for your reply. I can best answer your question as follows.
Attached is the latest version (5.0) of my own 0.5FHG strategy. This has been work in progress since January and evolved via the previous four versions. Key points are 99 selections over 210 days. 81.25% strike rate, 10.9% ROI.
Odds range: Optimum back odds identified are 1.35. Rarely available at KO so you have to allow breathing space. Average time of first goal where one was scored in FH is 19 minutes.
Leagues: Even with my earlier versions that generated far more selections I've not identified any leagues that should be dismissed outright. English and Scottish Women's leagues, Singapore, UAE produce winning selections. Liquidity might be an issue, but this does build from KO I find, I've had small test trades matched having joined the queue from KO.
Average FH goals: This is the key component for me. The figure in column G provides the average number of FH goals for the last 10 home and 10 away games. This is generated in the criteria but I like to break this down in the previous columns so that I can see any unusual or extreme patterns. This means that each league must be into match day 20 before a selection is generated and that is why there are so few selections. I started with 10 (last 5 home and 5 away) with my early versions but could not get any winning consistency until I hit 20. The minimum average is set at 1.8 goals. Below that and my strike rate diminishes.
Betfair odds on other markets: Not in my criteria.
Beyond the data: key also is to research each selection. For example, not included are matches where both sides have nothing to play for, already relegated/promoted etc. The stats won't do this for you but that pre-match overview is important and helped eliminate losing selections.
Second half goal: of the 15 losing selections, 14 of these produced at least one goal in the SH, so high strike but expect low odds if you hop on at SH KO, especially if it's been a busy FH.
Conclusion: A slow burner generating just 9 points profit over 7 months, so I won't be turning professional just yet!! However, it appears to work and note also just the one losing run of two selections recently . Fibonacci anyone?
I'm mulling over the next steps and I keep my earlier versions updated - in case I spot any changing trends in my criteria parameters.
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@Nikki-HALSALL excellent, thank you - assuming you dont have any more data, in terms of total match goals, first/second-half goals etc? Slightly limited with what I can do analysis-wise but some of the second-half goals %s are looking tasty in certain leagues!
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@Alex-Rendell - Yes apologies new spreadsheet with criteria headers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing
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@Nikki-HALSALL I dont suppose you could tell us what the criteria headers should be please?
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@Alex-Rendell Excellent - thanks Alex
