Layed early at 3.6

Lay Under 1.5 & Lay Under 2.5:

e4fad334-18fe-433e-9aa4-d5a2cb17909e-image.png

Update for June, i was away for a few days in Kosovo so missed some matches. But considerably less matches on the filters this month, due to be the summer leagues , some of which have been suspended also during the world cup( Swedish , Norwegian and south american leagues, also i find a lot of the european summer leagues don't match my criteria as there is no edge in the odds as they are underpriced. Here is the results for systems still looking promising. All based on £10 liability stakes

System 1 - Lay Under 2.5 goals for the 1st half ( odds under 1.40)
Trades 37, won 7, lost 30, s/r 18.92% Lost £38.44
Total trades to date since Jan 321, won 51, lost 270, s/r 15.89% Profit £259.64

System 2 - Back home at K/o 3.0-3.50 odds
Trades 2, won 1, lost 1 ,s/r 50% profit £11.07
Total trades to date since 193, won 66,lost 127, s/rate 34.20% profit £164.63

System 3- Back 1st half goal on 40mins ( if no goal 30-39mins)
June trades 14, won 3, lost 11, s/r 21.43% lost £11.99
Total trades since Jan- 197,won 52, lost 145,s/r 26.40% profit £284.24

System 4- BTTS ON 15MINS ( ODDS 1.60+)
June trades - 18,won 11,lost 7, s/r 61.11% profit £19.86
Trades since May- Trades 100, won 57, lost 43, s/r 57% profit £26.08

System 5- Lay away if takes lead
June - Trades 1, won 1 , lost 0 , s/rate 100% profit £3.49
Total trades since April 67, won 35, lost 32, s/r 52.24% profit £7.22

System 6- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERSION B ( CHECK LEAGUE POS)
June - Trades 28, won 7,lost 21,s/rate 25% profit £246.68
Total trades since Nov25- Trades 402, won 58, lost 344, s/r 14.43% profit £217.34

System 7- Back 1-0 Ft cs version Q
June trades 4, won 0, lost 4, s/r 0% lost £40.00
Total trades since Feb- Trades 53, won 10,lost 43, s/r 18.87% profit £230.92

System 8- Back over 2.5 goals FT version B- (2.0 odds + check h2h)
June Trades 4, won 0,lost 4, s/r 0% lost £40.00
Total trades since Jan26- trades 1059, won 489,lost 570, s/r 46.18% profit £305.81

System 9- Back over 1.5 Half 2 goals ( 2.0+ odds check h2h)
June 26- trades 4,won 2,lost 2, s/rate 50% profit £0.77p
Total trades since Jan26, trades 47, won 25,lost 22, s/rate 53.19% profit £46.53

System 10- Back AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS
June - trades 19, won 3, lost 16, s/rate 15.79% Lost £17.90
Total trades since April- Trades 110, won 14, lost 96, s/rate 12.73% profit £176.80

System 11- Injury Time goal version B ( last 5)
June trades - 20, won 8, lost 12, s/rate 40% profit £141.38
Total trades since Feb- 272, won 79, lost 193 s/r 29.04% profit £764.43

System 12 - Injury Time goal last 10 matches
June - trades 4, won 1 , lost 3 , s/rate 25% profit £7.71
Total trades since Jan25- 272, won 77, lost 195 s/r 28.31% profit £846.63

System 13- Back Over 1.5 FH goals ( odds 2.0+)
June trades 7, won 4, lost 3 , s/rate 57.14% profit £24.68
Total trades since March - 30, won 15, lost 15, s/rate 50% profit £65.29

System 14- Back Draw at K/o version W
June 26- trades 9, won 3, lost 6 , s/rate 33.33% profit £14.48
Total trades since Feb- 126, won 33, lost 93, s/rate 26.19% profit £184.46

System 15- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
June - trades 18, won 5, lost 13, s/rate 27.78% profit £10.63
Total trades since Jan- trades 375, won 118, lost 257, s/rate 31.47% profit £447.91

System 16- Back Draw for 1st half ( 2.0+ odds )
June - trades 3, won 3, lost 0 , s/rate 100% profit £32.73
Total trades since March- 59, won 31,lost 28, s/rate 52.54% profit £102.97

System 17 - New back over 3.5 goals ft on 15mins if odds 3.0+ and no goal
June - trades 8, won 3, lost 5 , s/rate 37.50% profit £12,23

@Robert-Horton Possibly, I'm not sure if they have an integration for TPD. You may need to ask BFBM.

@Everyone

Would you guys freaking hate it if we moved the forum to discord?

Looking at the outrights this morning. Think it could be a good time to back Belgium.

Think they have a very good chance of getting to the last 16 where they will probably play the US for a place in the quarters. At the current form they lose that game. But think the current price of 50s could easily could down to 25-30 region by then for a decent trade out.

Tennis Trading for a 10-Year-Old Part 7: The Complete Trading Plan

Now let's put everything together.

Imagine you are learning to ride a bicycle.

You don't try tricks on day one.

You learn the basics first.

The article says the same thing.

Step 1

Choose a good match.

Look for:

✓ Similar skill levels

✓ Competitive match

✓ Good liquidity

✓ Chance of service breaks

Avoid:

✗ Huge favourites

✗ Very low odds favourites

✗ Poor liquidity

Step 2

Pick Only 2 or 3 Entry Points

Do not trade every score.

The article specifically recommends focusing on a few situations.

Examples:

15-15

15-30

0-30

Learn those first.

Become comfortable.

Master them.

Step 3

Enter The Trade

Place your back or lay position.

Before the next point starts.

Now wait.

Step 4

Watch The Next Point

This is important.

You are not predicting the whole match.

You are mostly trading the next point.

If the point goes your way:

Great.

Take profit.

Or continue if the next score creates another strong setup.

Step 5

Cut Losses Quickly

This is where beginners struggle.

The article repeats this idea many times.

If the point goes against you:

Exit.

Take the small loss.

Move on.

Do not hope.

Do not pray.

Do not argue with the market.

Just exit.

Step 6

Hedge

After the trade finishes:

Green up.

Lock in profit.

Reset.

Look for the next opportunity.

The Biggest Mistake Beginners Make

Beginners often think:

"I need to be right every time."

Wrong.

Professional traders know they will lose many trades.

The goal is:

Lose small.

Win bigger.

Repeat.

The Entire Strategy In One Paragraph

Find score situations where a break of serve might happen.

Enter trades where the possible profit is larger than the possible loss.

If the next point goes against you, exit immediately.

If it goes your way, take profit or continue when the next score creates even more pressure.

Repeat this process many times during the match while protecting your money with small losses and disciplined exits.

That is the entire strategy explained as simply as possible.

I have this problem with the French Open - no odds data in the stats

@John-Folan Vader is back!

six winnings in a row - WOPS

Cheers

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

f = (((b-1)*p) – (1-p)) / (b-1)

Where:

f = fraction of your bank roll to stake b = current available betting odds for selection p = true probability of winning

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

f = (((4-1) * 0.3) - (1-0.3)) / (4-1) f = 0.0667 stake = 0.0667 * 1000 = £66.70

@Ryan I would have cashed out when the underdog scored for a very small loss and that would have meant a profitable day 🙂

My new manta is "protect you bank" which is helping with discipline.

@Chris-King very interested in your selection filters. So what angle do you trade using your filters. I can see that you are identifying a strong underdog. Are you looking to back the dog pre match and hope they make a fast start and win the 1st set?

@Simon-Hardy-0:

To find the higher ranked player, filter on:
Player -> Total -> Rank -> less than -> Total for opposition

The problem is you can't then do "price for this player" unfortunately. You can filter on the BF prices via Betfair -> Odds but only referencing specific selections.

If you have the "BF Prices" tab open in the main view, filter on the rank as above and then click each match in the filter results table, you should be able to narrow it down pretty quick.

Cheers fella

Not updated for a while but LTD still going in right direction just slow due to kids and life in general meaning i am busy when most trades are happening but the ones i catch seem to be generating small profit.

have just started (paper) trading half dobs on the horse racing and if this works then that would be amazing as i am buy my computer all day for these... we will see.

@Lee-Greener No worries, we'll disable the non-scope version of that strategy rule in a future update (like we do with "horse position") as it's literally impossible to use to backtest an upcoming race!

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

I have a similar one, these are my settings:

1b96ccaa-04a5-45e3-a62c-7e32e6f665f0-image.png

I don't bother with the "Sport Specific" ones, and more often than not it trades out for profit after the 1st goal, provided its early enough.