@Patrik-Mellqvist Excuse my ignorance but what is a half Kelly Criteria please?

Belated update for May, the results were a bit inconsistent probably again like April with the end of the winter leagues perhaps not performing as well as prior to April. Anyway here are the results i have recorded, all based on £10 liability test stakes

System 1- BACK AOS FT HOME TEAM ON 20MINS
May 26 - Trades 61,won7,lost 54,s/rate 11.47% profit £93.08
Total trades tested 91, won 11, lost 80, s/rate 12.09% profit £194.70

System 2- Injury Time goal version B ( last 5 matches) odds 1.30 below
May 26, Trades 78, won 19, lost 59, s/rate 24.36% Profit £30.79
Total trades recorded since Feb- 252, won 71, lost 181, s/rate 28.17% profit £623.05

System 3- Lay Under 2.5 Half 1 goals ( 1.40 odds below)
May 26- Trades 55, won 10, lost 45, s/rate 18.42% profit £78.33
Total trades since Jan- 247, won 44, lost 203, s/rate 17.81% profit £298.08

System 4- BACK 1-1 FT CS VERSION B(CHECK LEAGUE POS)
May 26- Trades 81, won 6, lost 75, s/rate 7.41% lost £305.08
Total Trades since nov 25, Trades 374, won 51,lost 323, s/rate 13.64% lost £29.34

System 5- Back Over 1.5 half 2 goals ( odds 2.0+ check h2h)
May 26- Trades 7 , won 2, lost 5, s/rate 28.57% lost £28.84
Total trades recorded since Jan26- Trades 43, won 23,lost 20, s/r 53.49% profit £45.76

System 6- Back over 2.5 goals ft vers b(2.0+ odds check h2h 50%+)
May 26- Trades 31, won 11, lost 20, s/r 35.48% lost £62.02
Total trades since Nov25- trades 1055, won 489,lost 566,s/r 46.35% profit £345.81

System 8 - Back 2-1 Ft cs opt A- ( check elo)
May 26- Trades 52, won 3, lost 49,s/r 5.77% lost £139.16
Total trades since April-114, won 12, lost 102,s/r 10.53% profit £156.00

System 9 - Injury time goal last 10
May 26- Trades 30, won 6, lost 24,s/rate 20% lost £13.74
Total trades since Jan25- Trades 268, won 76, lost 192,s/r 28.36% profit £838.92

System 10 - Back 1st half goal on 40mins( if no goal 30-39)
May26- trades 47,won 10,lost 37,s/r 21.28% lost £43.27
Total trades since jan- 183, won 49,lost 134,s/r 26.78% profit £296.23

System 11- Back over 1.5 Fh Goals (odds 2.0+)
May 26- Trades 1, won1,lost0,s/r 100%, profit £12.34
Total trades since March 23,won 11,lost 12,s/rate 47.83% profit £40.61

System 12- Back Home at k/o odds 3.0-3.50
May 26 -Trades 24, won 7,lost 17, s/r 29.17% lost £14.18
Total trades since Aug25- trades 191,won 65,lost 126,s/r 34.03% profit £153.56

System 13 - Back Draw at K/o Version W
May 26- Trades 30, won 8,lost 22, s/r 26.67% profit £9.32
Total trades since Feb26- Trades 117,won 30, lost 87,s/r 25.64% profit £169.98

System 14- Back 1-0 Ft Cs vers Q
May 26 - Trades 13, won 3, lost 10, s/r 23.08% profit £111.68
Total trades Since Feb26- Trades 49,won 10,lost 39, s/r 20.41% profit £270.92

System 15- BTTS AT HALF TIME IF 0-0 ( ODDS 3.0+)
May 26- Trades 68,won 17,lost 51,s/rate 25% lost £78.31
Trades rec since jan26- 357, WON 113, LOST 244, s/r 31.65% profit £437.28

System 15- Back the draw for Half 1( odds 2.0+)
May 26- Trades 24, won 14, lost 10, s/r 58.33% profit £82.08
Total trades to date trades 56,won 28, lost 28,s/rate 50% profit £ 70.24

Plenty others that i have amended the filters testing on hopefully come September i will have enough data for one or two systems to start trading on

@Alex-Rendell yeah, i'd like the numbers to be a bit more exciting long term

I have this problem with the French Open - no odds data in the stats

@John-Folan Vader is back!

I see Pakistan are chasing 430+ in the 4th inns of this test against Bangladesh. 2 down already with another 300 needed, I think a lay at 4.7 is value at this stage.

six winnings in a row - WOPS

Cheers

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

f = (((b-1)*p) – (1-p)) / (b-1)

Where:

f = fraction of your bank roll to stake b = current available betting odds for selection p = true probability of winning

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

f = (((4-1) * 0.3) - (1-0.3)) / (4-1) f = 0.0667 stake = 0.0667 * 1000 = £66.70

@Ryan I would have cashed out when the underdog scored for a very small loss and that would have meant a profitable day 🙂

My new manta is "protect you bank" which is helping with discipline.

@Chris-King very interested in your selection filters. So what angle do you trade using your filters. I can see that you are identifying a strong underdog. Are you looking to back the dog pre match and hope they make a fast start and win the 1st set?

@Simon-Hardy-0:

To find the higher ranked player, filter on:
Player -> Total -> Rank -> less than -> Total for opposition

The problem is you can't then do "price for this player" unfortunately. You can filter on the BF prices via Betfair -> Odds but only referencing specific selections.

If you have the "BF Prices" tab open in the main view, filter on the rank as above and then click each match in the filter results table, you should be able to narrow it down pretty quick.

Cheers fella

Not updated for a while but LTD still going in right direction just slow due to kids and life in general meaning i am busy when most trades are happening but the ones i catch seem to be generating small profit.

have just started (paper) trading half dobs on the horse racing and if this works then that would be amazing as i am buy my computer all day for these... we will see.

@Lee-Greener No worries, we'll disable the non-scope version of that strategy rule in a future update (like we do with "horse position") as it's literally impossible to use to backtest an upcoming race!

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

I have a similar one, these are my settings:

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I don't bother with the "Sport Specific" ones, and more often than not it trades out for profit after the 1st goal, provided its early enough.

@Shanice-Jackson Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@Martin Many thanks for your help so far. Appreciated.

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.