@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

Another small update. There are so many games in UK leagues at the moment these are changing every couple of days.

Lay Under 1.5:

11b88255-93a6-43ce-8340-db341391b06f-image.png

@james-everard I have been using the stats a lot more to get an idea of first goal times which then drives whether or not I put the full stake on from the start. I usually try to put a half stake on at a sensible time (from the stats) and then set up two quarter stakes to drip in shortly after.

I'm certainly no expert but I got tired of putting the whole stake on at KO only to find that the first goal comes in 20 mins later and I could have got a much better price. It doesn't always work of course but I reckon that I am getting a higher overall average price by drip feeding. The stats are key though - as @martin keeps saying!

@Shannon-Townsend great to hear that, slow and steady wins the race!

Hope you have a great year in 2026! I'm very excited for it.

Afternoon All, update for December. Unfortunately from a brilliant November , December was a losing month. With the injury time goal it is very much swings and round abouts either a small loss or huge profit. The Back the draw for half time strategy had a 4 monthly loss on a row, so i will go back and amend the filter slightly and paper trade to see if this improves.
The trading bank at the start of December was £2611.77 with 1% liability stakes of £26.11

System 1 - Back the Draw for 1st half (odds 2.0-2.30) check h2h 50% plus
Trades 18
Won 7
Lost 11
S/rate 38.88%
Lost £80.19

System 2- Injury time goal last 5 matches ( enter 90mins laying under goals market 1.30 below)
Trades 38
Won 7
Lost 31
S/Rate 18.42%
Lost £20.01

So the new trading bank has been reduced to £2511.57 , new 1% liability stakes of £25.11.

I have mentioned before, i have been paper trading lots of other systems of which two i am going to start implementing this month .
Firstly backing Home team at k/o odds 3.0-3.50 ,I have been testing for a while i don't have many matches per month but overall i have a recorded data for 66 trades , won 24,lost 42, s/rate 36.36% and based on £10 tests i would be up £107.28.
The other system i have more data on BTTS FOR FT odds 1.80+ Trades 330, won 187, lost 143, s/rate 56.66% profit based on £10 test stakes would be £269.30, although looking at the data i am amending to odds from 1.90+ so fewer trades but more comfortable with as the range 1.80-1.90 is about break even

Happy New Year!

Watched the videos — really good stuff. Had a 7-hour car journey so I smashed through the podcasts as well, some of them more than once.

I’ve been trading LTD and FHG using 2% of the bank and after just two trades this morning I’m already not far off doubling my original bankroll.

I’m big on stats and the software just makes everything feel smoother and easier to manage. I’m pretty strict with discipline too — some days one bet hit the target and that’s it, I was done for the day.

@BetsMonkey welcome mate, I know we have spoken a lot on email but if you need any help always here!

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Adam thanks Adam ok will do

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@Mark-Burrows great work! To answer your questions re: high scoring leagues in my experience off the top of my head, it can vary

Netherlands, especially the second division
Bolivia
Belguim
Norway
Sweden
Australia
MLS
Denmark
China

@allan-poulsen Hi Allan, I've been running a pre match set & forget strategy here for under 2.5 goals which is delivering +22pts over 138 trades so far.

under 2.5.txt

@allan-poulsen these are member strategies that have been shared with us over the years, not being tracked manually as it would be impossible to track (thousands of inplay data points would need to be tracked live per week manually), though when we have the next big software update (which isn't far off) it will be possible to run them through and find out.

@Adam said in TODAYS BUDGET AND NEW TAXES:

It seems horse racing won't be hit quite as hard, but only because the Horserace Betting Levy already exists:

A new rate of General Betting Duty will be introduced for general bets made remotely (for example online) from 1 April 2027. The remote rate of 25% will apply to all remote betting other than remote bets on UK horseracing which will remain unchanged, in line with land based betting, in recognition that operators contribute 10% towards the statutory Horserace Betting Levy, resulting in an existing de-facto 25% rate for bets on UK horse races

There will be indirect effects though - less sponsorship from bookies, less marketing, fewer bonuses etc.

Casinos are being hit the hardest:

The new duty rate of 40% will apply for accounting periods that begin on or after 1 April 2026 and will be chargeable on profits on remote gaming from that date onwards.

But don't worry, you can avoid remote betting by having a weekend away and betting at the venue instead. Then you just have to pay an extra 3p per mile for driving your EV there and a tourism tax on your Airbnb or hotel.

If you're lucky enough to get a win, make sure you immediately spend it and don't put it in your bank account, or you'll pay an extra 2% tax on any savings you have!

This government will probably tax us for oxygen intake in the next budget!

@Darran-Padley there's no definitive wrong or right way to trade or bet these games but the best way to find out is to forward test them, using small stakes - I'd stick to one approach for say a couple hundred results and see what you find. You can look to re-assess and adjust your approach after you have a fair idea of how it all works and whether or not it suits you (most important factor of all).

@Sam-roberts made a megathread a while back if you want to run the numbers on these: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-strategies-megathread/2

@Anthony-Daynes Perfect, haven't spoke with Mike in a long while I remember when he first started out in this world... god I've been around this world too long!

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Alex-Rendell said in Hi!:

@Alessandro-Imbrescia I personally think it matters less what you actually do in terms of staying in or trading out; the most important thing for me is staying consistent and adopting the same approach during every single trade.

priceless advice!