Spreadsheet updated up to 19/08/2024 so now one years worth of results tracked (just under 13 months), that’s 622 matches.

Bear in mind the results I have tracked WON’T BE ALL the selections there ever was as some drop in/out of the BTC filter according to a selection’s Betfair odds fluctuations.

I generally get my daily selections from the odds filter in the morning between 06:00-11:00 depending on the day and what I’m doing, so will miss any selections after this time frame, however on the odd occasion during summer league seasons I will check and add any selections available, which can catch the odd overnight/early morning USA, South American, Japanese and South Korean matches but generally I believe I catch the vast amount of daily selections in the morning.

@Patrik-Mellqvist am just means midnight to midday, midday to midnight is pm

@Martin It came in. 0-0

@Patrik-Mellqvist I like the idea but it will be entirely dependent on stakes used and whether or not your strategy is a long term success.

@Patrik-Mellqvist how many wins do you need to cancel out the loss on Over/Under 2.5 and Over/Under 3.5

@Patrik-Mellqvist For automation I just code my own, but BFBM definitely seems to be the most popular here, I think because it's so flexible.

I use BetAngel for any manual trading or if I just want to observe the behaviour of the markets, as I find their ladder interface and charts to be the best.

@Matt-Wood nice one I will add this to the strategy database

@Martin said in Test trading option for Lay O3,5:

@Patrik-Mellqvist is there an inplay angle with these?

Hello @Martin - is my overall feeling after a short sample, but I have compared with the Lay option and made my personal decision to continue with the Under 2.5 goals market as the profits on average and sometimes very high odds give some degree of value compared to the original, that is a simple conclusion after a couple of Set & Forget bets - I find the backing option with correct score and under goal market also being more flexible as I can place them on a pinnacle that allows winning punters.

So I am satisfied and decided to start staking £20 on Betfair after one month, starting Juli and £20 on Pinnacle.
Smarkets is not working as an option as they have a limited amount of leagues compared to the others.

My personal opinion and instinct and the overall feeling is that my solution is a much better solution than the original with a large portion of improvement.
The idea and experiment with a solution for Lay U1.5 but using the correct score and over-goal market did not give expected performance when comparing to Lay O3.5 - the difference in performance is like day and night when looking at the charts and there is no need for a larger sample to see the strength difference in performance in swings and risk/reward ratio.

See for yourself and let the output embrace you 🙂

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@Martin I have another solution for the Lay U1.5 that produces +136 with the same placed bets.
But that approach I will at the moment keep for myself and I will run 10 or 20 to get a feel and estimation observation on the strength in the negative and positive swings to see if I can strengthen the backing option further or skip that idea.

Cheers

The highlights email is basically a small selection of the stats available in the software and on the ratings page.

So for example if the highlights email says "Only x% of home match history had a goal in the first 10 minutes" and that's the kind of thing you want to look out for, you could create the following filter in the stats software:

0a4f7408-339f-4ffa-bc1d-c8d60fd448ce-image.png

Some of the highlights relate to the ratings page. Some figures will already be highlighted in green or red if they're high / low and you can also use the filters at the bottom of each column:

f7fbaf4b-5380-4a7c-aa7f-53c54b43e86f-image.png

@Ryan amen to that brother!

@Martin said in QUESTION Advance Filter Setting - To Get Estimated Odds With Certain Goal Markets:

@Patrik-Mellqvist probably easiest if I answer your first post then you ask another question after that, or I will get lost trying to follow all of these posts.

To view the current odds of your selections you can see them in the criteria list on your strategy results. So when you click the filter and see the selections it will be listed as Criteria X (numbered based on which number it is in your criteria order when you created the filter).

However these will only be the pre-match odds, they do not track in play.

Thanks, @Martin for the support and I know Adam mentioned this function as you had before on another topic.
But I feel it doesn't do the trick and opportunity for observations to tackle the situation correctly.

So I will trust my instinct this time and I will use the following set-up.

Original Filter (no-changes) Strict Filter - (with added parameter/criteria with no further tweaks) Relax Filter - (with added parameter/criteria and change the overall odds criteria with 0,5 tick difference) Loose Filter - (add criteria with whole tick spread and free setting for the main criteria for observation)

a) Compare with the original settings qualifiers and what vanishes and what stays with the other options.
b) The filter set-up is a process and journey to decide and find the optimal and final setting filter from options.
c) Observation with fine-tuning and tailoring the final and optimal solution criteria and parameters.

I will do this for two SHG existing filters that i know have excellent results in their original shape.
The risk mitigation part of this experiment is that you might drop a certain degree of % in strike ratio and overall performance, but the already high values and performance will probably not affect the final results with such significance that it will make the applied trading strategy bust or fail.

Cheers

I will share something for the community as i can see there is certian amount of views.
There is an optional way or solution for the ELO calulation with 100+ difference including the comback ration of 60+

I been doing some degree of extanded testing where you pick only Home Favorites witht he odds 1,75 or lower.
And where the Underdog score during the first 20 min.

This creates what i call time value and where the majority of games the Favorite make an equalizer.
I got an positive ROI after 300 placed trades.
You have 70 min and the extra added time for first half and second half that is around an minimum of 10+.
That make your Home Favorite almost having an full match to equlaize or 80+ min.

Now after reading Richard's ELO system and watch Martin's video i learn one importan lesson.
To take advantage of the 0-2 siutuation for the underdog where the Home Favorite succed scoring once but maybe not twice and we can get out from the RED with an SCRATCH - that is an importan lesson as this score line is very common when the Underdog is hot you will see more 1-2 score lines then 0-3 score lines.

So i see value in trading this siutution to minimize the RED and increase the overall strike ratio with wins and ties and occasional loses.
Now i will update this topic as i will experiemnt with the options to act when there is 0-2.
As the relay bet is time sensetive and will not always work i want an sure thing as trading option.
In the examples above you can see that the correct score line 1-2 before kick of is around 26 to back.
Maybe this would cut the siutaion to an favorable HEDGE bet with 80/20 ratio and use the implicity of that things can go wrong and then be safe and i not with succesfull trade we take a reduce winning pot that narrow down to maybe 5 or 10% on the cash out amount, just my estimation.

Not sure is this option work - but i will do some simluatons and get back with some pictures.
The other option that i know work to almost full degree is to back the draw price when the score line is 0-2 with the ratio 70/30 and you will get out with an scratch trade, but i feel 30% of the base stake is to much for an hedge bet and feel that 20% would be better, so there is a need to test that and the difference in odds are huge, draw price at 0-2 is around 11 to back and the cs back odds for 1-2 is around 26 to back.

Cheers

@Patrik-Mellqvist according to soccerstats 77% for Singapore not sure on others but google will probably be your best bet

@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS no, just scalping for a tick or two for small profit. For example back 1.20 and lay 1.19.

@Patrik-Mellqvist interesting stuff keep us updated!

@darren-orange I've added it let me know if you don't get any daily emails tomorrow

@Kurtis-Steven-Graham
Hey dude , I've changed alot since the first filter to narrow down too many selections, I'm currently testing and will reveal my finding very soon.

Are you struggling to find selections ?

@Simon-Bates Yes, have a look at the IMPORTDATA function. The formatting of the webpage will matter, but assuming it's in some kind of table, it should work OK.

Thanks, Adam, that's really useful to know 👍 it has been bugging me.