Football Trading

417 Topics 86.3k Posts
  • Adam, Ryan, martin

    2 Votes
    10 Posts
    194 Views

    @Ryan amen to that brother!

  • 1 Votes
    6 Posts
    70 Views

    @Martin said in QUESTION Advance Filter Setting - To Get Estimated Odds With Certain Goal Markets:

    @Patrik-Mellqvist probably easiest if I answer your first post then you ask another question after that, or I will get lost trying to follow all of these posts.

    To view the current odds of your selections you can see them in the criteria list on your strategy results. So when you click the filter and see the selections it will be listed as Criteria X (numbered based on which number it is in your criteria order when you created the filter).

    However these will only be the pre-match odds, they do not track in play.

    Thanks, @Martin for the support and I know Adam mentioned this function as you had before on another topic.
    But I feel it doesn't do the trick and opportunity for observations to tackle the situation correctly.

    So I will trust my instinct this time and I will use the following set-up.

    Original Filter (no-changes) Strict Filter - (with added parameter/criteria with no further tweaks) Relax Filter - (with added parameter/criteria and change the overall odds criteria with 0,5 tick difference) Loose Filter - (add criteria with whole tick spread and free setting for the main criteria for observation)

    a) Compare with the original settings qualifiers and what vanishes and what stays with the other options.
    b) The filter set-up is a process and journey to decide and find the optimal and final setting filter from options.
    c) Observation with fine-tuning and tailoring the final and optimal solution criteria and parameters.

    I will do this for two SHG existing filters that i know have excellent results in their original shape.
    The risk mitigation part of this experiment is that you might drop a certain degree of % in strike ratio and overall performance, but the already high values and performance will probably not affect the final results with such significance that it will make the applied trading strategy bust or fail.

    Cheers

  • Lay The Underdog

    1 Votes
    7 Posts
    103 Views

    I will share something for the community as i can see there is certian amount of views.
    There is an optional way or solution for the ELO calulation with 100+ difference including the comback ration of 60+

    I been doing some degree of extanded testing where you pick only Home Favorites witht he odds 1,75 or lower.
    And where the Underdog score during the first 20 min.

    This creates what i call time value and where the majority of games the Favorite make an equalizer.
    I got an positive ROI after 300 placed trades.
    You have 70 min and the extra added time for first half and second half that is around an minimum of 10+.
    That make your Home Favorite almost having an full match to equlaize or 80+ min.

    Now after reading Richard's ELO system and watch Martin's video i learn one importan lesson.
    To take advantage of the 0-2 siutuation for the underdog where the Home Favorite succed scoring once but maybe not twice and we can get out from the RED with an SCRATCH - that is an importan lesson as this score line is very common when the Underdog is hot you will see more 1-2 score lines then 0-3 score lines.

    So i see value in trading this siutution to minimize the RED and increase the overall strike ratio with wins and ties and occasional loses.
    Now i will update this topic as i will experiemnt with the options to act when there is 0-2.
    As the relay bet is time sensetive and will not always work i want an sure thing as trading option.
    In the examples above you can see that the correct score line 1-2 before kick of is around 26 to back.
    Maybe this would cut the siutaion to an favorable HEDGE bet with 80/20 ratio and use the implicity of that things can go wrong and then be safe and i not with succesfull trade we take a reduce winning pot that narrow down to maybe 5 or 10% on the cash out amount, just my estimation.

    Not sure is this option work - but i will do some simluatons and get back with some pictures.
    The other option that i know work to almost full degree is to back the draw price when the score line is 0-2 with the ratio 70/30 and you will get out with an scratch trade, but i feel 30% of the base stake is to much for an hedge bet and feel that 20% would be better, so there is a need to test that and the difference in odds are huge, draw price at 0-2 is around 11 to back and the cs back odds for 1-2 is around 26 to back.

    Cheers

  • Summer League

    1 Votes
    4 Posts
    97 Views

    @Patrik-Mellqvist according to soccerstats 77% for Singapore not sure on others but google will probably be your best bet

  • In-Play Scalping/Time Decay

    1 Votes
    11 Posts
    183 Views

    @GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS no, just scalping for a tick or two for small profit. For example back 1.20 and lay 1.19.

  • 1 Votes
    3 Posts
    78 Views

    @Patrik-Mellqvist interesting stuff keep us updated!

  • Daily Email Selections

    1 Votes
    4 Posts
    60 Views

    @darren-orange I've added it let me know if you don't get any daily emails tomorrow

  • Btts strategy is it worth it

    5 Votes
    15 Posts
    364 Views

    @Kurtis-Steven-Graham
    Hey dude , I've changed alot since the first filter to narrow down too many selections, I'm currently testing and will reveal my finding very soon.

    Are you struggling to find selections ?

  • Google Sheets

    1 Votes
    5 Posts
    108 Views

    @Simon-Bates Yes, have a look at the IMPORTDATA function. The formatting of the webpage will matter, but assuming it's in some kind of table, it should work OK.

  • Head to head teams vs head to head overall

    0 Votes
    3 Posts
    59 Views

    Thanks, Adam, that's really useful to know 👍 it has been bugging me.

  • This topic is deleted!

    0 Votes
    1 Posts
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    No one has replied
  • xg goals football ratings - not available?

    1 Votes
    18 Posts
    153 Views

    hi yes i had added another address
    it was showing on site - that was the cause ?
    ok thanks for fixing
    rgds
    peter

  • Exporting routines

    1 Votes
    11 Posts
    110 Views

    @Tony-Hastie said in Exporting routines:

    School run, actual run, Shower, export data, load bots, cook wife lunch, landscape garden(or look as though Im doing something useful), school run, after school clubs, cook dinner, get kids to bed, check results, monitor any football thats on for SHG or CS opportunities(or fiddle about with the horse racing software), go to bed, sleep. My life🤣

    This is a fine example of just how much kids add work to life isn't it! Not even thinking cost either!

  • Red Cards and "Injury Time Goals" !!!

    0 Votes
    2 Posts
    73 Views

    @Greg-Mitchell said in Red Cards and "Injury Time Goals" !!!:

    Re: New Football Thread

    So annoying!

    But awesome if in your favour!!!!!

  • My SET & FORGET Spreadsheet Updated.

    6 Votes
    18 Posts
    522 Views

    @andrew-page that's a great line!

  • Difference and ratio

    1 Votes
    6 Posts
    97 Views

    @Lucian-Moldovan said in Difference and ratio:

    @Martin Thank you that is helpful...basically the bigger the difference the better

    yes spot on!

  • 1 Votes
    3 Posts
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    @Wayne-Thomas it might be to do with it being a rearranged fixture, I'll message @Adam

  • staking plan

    1 Votes
    4 Posts
    123 Views

    @John-passmoor I use stake as stake rather than liability, so if I am laying at 3.0 using a £2.50 stake my liability would be £7.50.

    You could use it as liability instead.

    What market are you betting on?

    It will depend on your confidence on your strategy the approach you take and whether you use £2.50 or £5 stakes. £1k is deep enough to do it my way but it's your decision to make.

  • XG Stats

    1 Votes
    4 Posts
    105 Views

    @Andy-Mills don't worry always good that you ask!

  • 1 Votes
    4 Posts
    76 Views

    @Adam brilliant that be perfect can manual check from list generated