@Matt-Wood nice one I will add this to the strategy database

@Martin said in Test trading option for Lay O3,5:

@Patrik-Mellqvist is there an inplay angle with these?

Hello @Martin - is my overall feeling after a short sample, but I have compared with the Lay option and made my personal decision to continue with the Under 2.5 goals market as the profits on average and sometimes very high odds give some degree of value compared to the original, that is a simple conclusion after a couple of Set & Forget bets - I find the backing option with correct score and under goal market also being more flexible as I can place them on a pinnacle that allows winning punters.

So I am satisfied and decided to start staking £20 on Betfair after one month, starting Juli and £20 on Pinnacle.
Smarkets is not working as an option as they have a limited amount of leagues compared to the others.

My personal opinion and instinct and the overall feeling is that my solution is a much better solution than the original with a large portion of improvement.
The idea and experiment with a solution for Lay U1.5 but using the correct score and over-goal market did not give expected performance when comparing to Lay O3.5 - the difference in performance is like day and night when looking at the charts and there is no need for a larger sample to see the strength difference in performance in swings and risk/reward ratio.

See for yourself and let the output embrace you 🙂

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Skärmbild (240).png

@Martin I have another solution for the Lay U1.5 that produces +136 with the same placed bets.
But that approach I will at the moment keep for myself and I will run 10 or 20 to get a feel and estimation observation on the strength in the negative and positive swings to see if I can strengthen the backing option further or skip that idea.

Cheers

The highlights email is basically a small selection of the stats available in the software and on the ratings page.

So for example if the highlights email says "Only x% of home match history had a goal in the first 10 minutes" and that's the kind of thing you want to look out for, you could create the following filter in the stats software:

0a4f7408-339f-4ffa-bc1d-c8d60fd448ce-image.png

Some of the highlights relate to the ratings page. Some figures will already be highlighted in green or red if they're high / low and you can also use the filters at the bottom of each column:

f7fbaf4b-5380-4a7c-aa7f-53c54b43e86f-image.png

@Ryan amen to that brother!

@Martin said in QUESTION Advance Filter Setting - To Get Estimated Odds With Certain Goal Markets:

@Patrik-Mellqvist probably easiest if I answer your first post then you ask another question after that, or I will get lost trying to follow all of these posts.

To view the current odds of your selections you can see them in the criteria list on your strategy results. So when you click the filter and see the selections it will be listed as Criteria X (numbered based on which number it is in your criteria order when you created the filter).

However these will only be the pre-match odds, they do not track in play.

Thanks, @Martin for the support and I know Adam mentioned this function as you had before on another topic.
But I feel it doesn't do the trick and opportunity for observations to tackle the situation correctly.

So I will trust my instinct this time and I will use the following set-up.

Original Filter (no-changes) Strict Filter - (with added parameter/criteria with no further tweaks) Relax Filter - (with added parameter/criteria and change the overall odds criteria with 0,5 tick difference) Loose Filter - (add criteria with whole tick spread and free setting for the main criteria for observation)

a) Compare with the original settings qualifiers and what vanishes and what stays with the other options.
b) The filter set-up is a process and journey to decide and find the optimal and final setting filter from options.
c) Observation with fine-tuning and tailoring the final and optimal solution criteria and parameters.

I will do this for two SHG existing filters that i know have excellent results in their original shape.
The risk mitigation part of this experiment is that you might drop a certain degree of % in strike ratio and overall performance, but the already high values and performance will probably not affect the final results with such significance that it will make the applied trading strategy bust or fail.

Cheers

I will share something for the community as i can see there is certian amount of views.
There is an optional way or solution for the ELO calulation with 100+ difference including the comback ration of 60+

I been doing some degree of extanded testing where you pick only Home Favorites witht he odds 1,75 or lower.
And where the Underdog score during the first 20 min.

This creates what i call time value and where the majority of games the Favorite make an equalizer.
I got an positive ROI after 300 placed trades.
You have 70 min and the extra added time for first half and second half that is around an minimum of 10+.
That make your Home Favorite almost having an full match to equlaize or 80+ min.

Now after reading Richard's ELO system and watch Martin's video i learn one importan lesson.
To take advantage of the 0-2 siutuation for the underdog where the Home Favorite succed scoring once but maybe not twice and we can get out from the RED with an SCRATCH - that is an importan lesson as this score line is very common when the Underdog is hot you will see more 1-2 score lines then 0-3 score lines.

So i see value in trading this siutution to minimize the RED and increase the overall strike ratio with wins and ties and occasional loses.
Now i will update this topic as i will experiemnt with the options to act when there is 0-2.
As the relay bet is time sensetive and will not always work i want an sure thing as trading option.
In the examples above you can see that the correct score line 1-2 before kick of is around 26 to back.
Maybe this would cut the siutaion to an favorable HEDGE bet with 80/20 ratio and use the implicity of that things can go wrong and then be safe and i not with succesfull trade we take a reduce winning pot that narrow down to maybe 5 or 10% on the cash out amount, just my estimation.

Not sure is this option work - but i will do some simluatons and get back with some pictures.
The other option that i know work to almost full degree is to back the draw price when the score line is 0-2 with the ratio 70/30 and you will get out with an scratch trade, but i feel 30% of the base stake is to much for an hedge bet and feel that 20% would be better, so there is a need to test that and the difference in odds are huge, draw price at 0-2 is around 11 to back and the cs back odds for 1-2 is around 26 to back.

Cheers

@Patrik-Mellqvist according to soccerstats 77% for Singapore not sure on others but google will probably be your best bet

@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS no, just scalping for a tick or two for small profit. For example back 1.20 and lay 1.19.

@Patrik-Mellqvist interesting stuff keep us updated!

@darren-orange I've added it let me know if you don't get any daily emails tomorrow

@Kurtis-Steven-Graham
Hey dude , I've changed alot since the first filter to narrow down too many selections, I'm currently testing and will reveal my finding very soon.

Are you struggling to find selections ?

@Simon-Bates Yes, have a look at the IMPORTDATA function. The formatting of the webpage will matter, but assuming it's in some kind of table, it should work OK.

Thanks, Adam, that's really useful to know 👍 it has been bugging me.

hi yes i had added another address
it was showing on site - that was the cause ?
ok thanks for fixing
rgds
peter

@Tony-Hastie said in Exporting routines:

School run, actual run, Shower, export data, load bots, cook wife lunch, landscape garden(or look as though Im doing something useful), school run, after school clubs, cook dinner, get kids to bed, check results, monitor any football thats on for SHG or CS opportunities(or fiddle about with the horse racing software), go to bed, sleep. My life🤣

This is a fine example of just how much kids add work to life isn't it! Not even thinking cost either!

@Greg-Mitchell said in Red Cards and "Injury Time Goals" !!!:

Re: New Football Thread

So annoying!

But awesome if in your favour!!!!!

@andrew-page that's a great line!

@Lucian-Moldovan said in Difference and ratio:

@Martin Thank you that is helpful...basically the bigger the difference the better

yes spot on!

@Wayne-Thomas it might be to do with it being a rearranged fixture, I'll message @Adam