So this is more of a theoretical framework for people to refine, or have you actually tested it in live trading? Filtering for comebacks makes sense in theory, but Betfair odds already factor in a lot of this. Have you checked if this actually finds value compared to market pricing?
Also, things like ranking bands and win percentages aren’t that reliable. Players perform completely differently across hard, clay, and grass, and those stats get skewed fast. Looking at the last 10 matches one player might have just come off a Grand Slam, while the other was playing in Challenger events, so it’s not always a fair comparison.
Have you refined and tested this yourself? How has it been doing?