@Patrik-Mellqvist wise words!

@Patrik-Mellqvist Thank you, that is a good bit of reading for me later on, written by people with a lot of experience.

@Alex-Rendell hello. Thanks for your reply, I have already tweaked both leagues and odds on all of the strategies except the lay the draw set and forget. The last deep dive I did into the strategies was back on January 1st. I think I will have to have another look into the leagues and odds to see if that improves it. But do it in a way that is not an obvious back fit.

Full details of tomorrow's update here.

@Patrik-Mellqvist ok so you have completely different filters that is why the selections you expect are not showing.

'H2 over 0.5' means over 0.5 in the second half (either team in the match could score)
'Scored' means the specific team would have to have scored, not either team in the match, so much less chance a team scores 60% of the time, than either team scores 20%.

You need to use the same metric for both filters if you want to get the matches pop up on both. So for example you can choose 'Home' 'Scored in H2' rather than 'H2 over 0.5'.

Hope that makes sense.

If your entry/exit conditions present themselves multiple times in a match and you're within the boundaries of whatever you've decided to risk on that match then sure.

There's no set "correct" number of trades to place per market, you just need to be re-evaluating as the match progresses based on what's happening in the game and be aware of the increased risk the later it gets due to "dangerous" events making the prices swing wider.

Don't evaluate the next trade based on confidence built in the last one. Evaluate the current conditions on their own merit. Ask yourself whether you'd still be placing that next trade if it was the first trade you were placing for that match.

@Alex-Rendell said in Tennis Simulation Software - Build Playing Model First - Then Execute:

@Patrik-Mellqvist no need for that really - what you say is as clear as mud half the time!

Yes I fully understand - I stand with my point of view and move forward no matter what others think or have as an opinion - and I believe the software is a good way to test and validate tennis strategy - you can think differently - don't affect me

So I will - even if you don't like it - post my thoughts and review of the software after testing ...

Cheers

@Simon-Bates I personally rarely let a bet run, but there's nothing wrong with doing so if you think you have decent value from the bet.

Hedging or partial hedging will remove some or all liability. If you're dripping in your backs then you could drip in your hedge bets as well.

If you want to keep it really simple you could just lay for the exact same stake as you backed, which creates a free bet on that selection (if your selection wins you make a profit, if it doesn't then you lose nothing).

There's no right or wrong answer really, other than ensuring the price is right in the first place, but I wouldn't use the cashout button as you'll never really get a favourable price, as convenient as it is.

Also keep an eye on dangerous match events that could send the price flying if you're betting late in the market.

@Ryan

I changed my mind i am going pro with realistic plans and looking at this pragmatic solution

In Sweden, gambling companies must apply for a license to operate and pay tax
So is not 100% that Betfair and Smarkets will always be around

But I don't see an obstacle I know a solution (mindset)
Search laws and I am free to buy a studio with 1 room and kitchen for as low as 20,000 and above in Middlesbrough then I can get my address with name and ID number and get a skilled citizen agreement with my own UK bank account.

That is realistic to get access to matchbook and betdaq and betfair and smarket and use an apartment for pending between Sweden and UK
When not traveling I use VPN from home

So going pro and making 20/30,000 a year that is a pretty safe investment and solution to secure long term relations to always have access to exchanges

That is my new plan and strategic

Have a nice daythumbnail_IMG_0226.jpg

@Patrik-Mellqvist yeah fit it in how you can, or perhaps more importantly how you would like to. I find you have to make sure you are enjoying it to keep motivation!

Nothing wrong with adding in tennis!

@Adam OK, Im not that bad😁

I was mind you and do need to see a nice graph! My weakness is courses. Im quick to get rid of the ALL -ROI ones. Ill take a closer look at characteristics in the future...

@Simon-Bates yes you can trade out manually there, the odds are quite close together

@Michael-Chalk I think this is a good idea. I'll have a think about how to implement it!

@Christopher-Mcintosh what odds do you get on average for that lay?