Long Shot Draws - Accountability
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It all started when I was playing and winning on a fantasy betting site. Fake monies.
I'd do a multitude of bets on the following:
0-0,1-2,2-2, W-D, L-D, D-D, and Draw
The biggest payouts are the following scenario's
H-D, or A-D, and 2-2, but I found many instances where I could green up significantly on games that matched that scenario at 85 mins.
I've started to use the filters to try and see and I get more sophisticated on this.
I've filtered for games that match the following criteria
2-2 > 10%
W-D > 10%
L - D > 10%I've used an OR scenario, and chosen games that score 25 or over in those 3 scenarios.
I've also stripped out the D and 0-0 from the bets, so €10 per game..
€70 down. Let's see how we go today
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Done another 18 draws over the weekend and broke even. Continuing to tweak the selection criteria, and also which legs I run with.
I am going to try without d-d, and bring back 0-0 as 3 of my draws were 0-0
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a bit of a train smash yesterday, with only 1 out of 10 games being a draw.
It was also D-D, and 0-0 (which I don't back)
Current margin is -1.3%.
if I stayed away from the mid game laying, margin would be +9%
Gonna add more games tonight.
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some tweaks. 10 games on tonight
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@Simon-Dunne definitely would advise for more data at this point and as you say it is too early to make any conclusions but an encouraging start.
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Oki, so I'm 13 games in and while I am eager to tweak it the strategy, the data is too small.
Some thoughts, which I'd appreciate some input on @Martin
-5 out of 13 games actually being a draw is higher than I anticipated. This feels like luck!
- The average payout received was 48.3, for a stake of 10
- I cost myself 24 quid by laying at 1.17 the entire upside. This feels like a loss driver at this point, but I think this makes sense over time. The logic is that for the games that swing from draw to win in 90+ min, I get paid out on, and the games that swing from win to draw in 90+ min, I also get paid out on. So while these things normalise over time, by getting paid on both instances might make sense.
I looked at the games that finished a draw, marked with a Y in the rows below (Bari, Exeter, etc). It looks like that odds on a draw in these games was 21% higher than the games that didn't finish lower.
Perhaps I should only pick games where draw draw is less than 5.0?
Of the 5 draws, ALL of them were either A-D or H-D. This is a big driver of profit. No D-D.
It makes me wonder about removing D-D from the bet (and the stake by £2)
If this logic applied, there would have been £26 more profit.
If I done this, AND didn't lay, there would be £50 more profit.
All a bit too early for these kind of decisions, but would appreciate ANY feedback.
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Today's games, brining me up to 12 games, and 120 wagered.
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@Simon-Dunne following with interest! Are you able to place these on Betfair? Not really ever looked at W-D. L-D etc
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1 x 1-1, which also was h-d
1 x 2-2, which also was h-d70 staked, 107 returned
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2 draws from the 7.
