Goal Averages in early 2025
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I've noticed a few people discussing struggles in the overs markets and goal-based strategies recently, and just wanted to share what I've been experiencing with my own data and trading.
I'm not an expert (far from it!) but across five different systems I track - all geared towards looking for goals - four of them have been noticeably down in terms of goal averages/output over the last two months. Both first-half and second-half goal %s are lower than usual, and naturally that means overall goal averages are down as well.
This isn't unusual. Football is predictable, but it is also non-linear, and averages don't play out evenly every week. The global average sits at around 2.7 goals per game, but that doesn't mean we get exactly 2.7 every round of fixtures. Some weeks it'll be lower (e.g. 2.2, 2.4) and other weeks it'll be higher (3, 3.2 etc), balancing out over time.
One notable example is Germany, where the Bundesliga goal averages have dropped by about a full goal per game since the winter break. That doesn't mean football is broken or that goal trends are permanently shifting, it's just variance at play. These dips happen, and history tells us they always correct themselves over time.
So, if like me, you're struggling in the goal markets at the moment, stay patient. The numbers will revert to the mean - it could start next week, next month, or a bit further out. But the key takeaway is that this kind of variance is normal, and a long-term perspective is what matters most.
Would be interested to hear if others are seeing similar trends in their own data...
Cheers
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Great post, this is something I always keep an eye on, brings home the benefits of longer term testing. If you rely on goals to win in your strategy and you know you're profitable when goals are at usual levels, then just hang in there, because once goals hit 3+ a game then you'll likely benefit hugely.
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@Alex-Rendell this is an excellent way of explaining variance, good work!
It's why we should never rush to axe things from a strategy, only to do so when the evidence is overwhelming.
One thing I am starting to pay more attention to is when sides who are at the top or bottom play each other, the games that feel like they mean more often I find are either goal fests or total duds, often the latter.
