Scalping

[Patrik Mellqvist]

First I apologise for my English that might make me look stupid
I can assure you when it comes to gambling I am the direct opposite.

The following is a slow conservative strategy that not give fast and quick money or a red Ferrari

The most common obstacle when scalping is that many wins vanish with one loss.
Now at this moment I will only talk about in-play 5 min time-decay scalps for soccer.
Not 1 tick with 1:1 ratio before kick off or during half-time break.

I'm going to talk round numbers and not specific numbers.
And how to overcome this dilemma.

One is based upon - THE STRIKES WINNING FREQUENCIES -
And they come in different lengths and they come in cycles.

When you have 200 scalps or more, you can measure the median value for the frequencies strike ratio.
That is how many winning trades in a row each cycle has.
It can look like this:

-3-4-8-1-0-6-5-6-8-3-4

This means three winning trades in a row that end with one losing trade.
This means four winning tradies in a row that end with one losing trade.
And so it continues.
If a zero you have no winning trades and one direct losing trade.

When we sort this data like this we can put them in numerical order from 0 to 20+ and above.
For example -0-1-3-3-4-4-5-6-6-8-8-
When we're done with our 200 or more scalping trades we can split the numerical order data string by 50% and then we can see the cutting edge from where we have sequenceal winning frequencies above 50% threshold and below.

That is the first phase.
Next we want to win the majority of scalps and preferably more than a perfect balance between 10 wins and 10 losses.
So that is 10 or more winning frequencies, then 10 losing winning frequencies.
Or let me put it like this, 10 more winning cycles than 10 losing cycles.

It might sound easy as you automatically win more scalps than you lose.
But the fact remains that the losing scalp eats up all the profits.

Here I am considering using - THE MASSIANELLO FORMULA -
This way we will have a pretty solid chance to overcome the majority scalping sessions and win long term and overall.
But still, this is theory, but the unknown area I am exploring.

Here is the chart for - The Massianello Formula Staking -

In short, if you win your cycle, that gives you a total amount that can be compared to a decimal odds around 1.7 or above, you will have an overall winning concept.
For example, you have 10% return for each scalp and a 50% loss.
And have those cycles with a high winning ratio after checking the overall median value, then you should have a winner.

Now if we were to play a random game where the strike ratio doesn't overcome the math, we will have negative EV.

You will either win 20 units or lose 100 units.
To lose 100 units, we must have exactly 10 winning cycles and 10 losing scalps within 20.

If the correct answer is 17.6% then I took it to mean something like this:

We play 100 games
17 games/sessions we lose 100 units (1700)
83 games/sessions we win 20 units (1660 units)
So every 100 games we play we will lose 40 units

If we can get a hit ratio to overcome that negative EV we have a winner when scalping.
In my arsenal I have several scalping methods to explore and try.
With different risk and reward performance.

If you are interested in this development,I can give you the material and exact data and analyze methods to execute this validation process, and maybe we can create a long-term winner together.
Just send me a PM and we can talk.

Cheers Patrik

[Patrik Mellqvist]

Well, today I will start scalping instead of paper trading.

Raw Rules:

1. Odds for Over 1.5 goals market 1.15 or less.
   Most games will have a second half current score line at 6+

2. Will pick one scalp each day, if available, between time-slots 20:00 to 21:00, where I pick the available game on the list.

3. If one selected game don't qualified with 6+ odds with current goal market I move to the next game availbal on the list.
   If no game is available, no scalping day.

4. If a winning scalp, I will move into virtual mode using the selection process until a loss occurs and then activate real mode and start entering the next cycle to catch 1 frequency.

5. This is optional rule, you wait for a fictive win/scalp then enter with real money once, then enter virtual mode until a loss and then repeat the process.
   This has to do with how to tackle the Black Swan or when Lady Luck or Variance show its ugly face.
   (( I will illustrate both modes with real money))

Today's game 2025-03-08 Spain La Liga
Barcelona vs. Osasuna
Time: 21:00
(( I will apply rule five, so today's game is virtual ))

Summary of this topic:
After showing two real examples with the rules above.
You are free to test and explore on your own.

I know what I intended to do.
2000£ a month.
One scalp each day.
Only picking the market with a turnaround of 100,000£ at the match odds market.
Where the risk is 10,000£ for one Massianello Session.
And the profit 2000£

Why not win 10 to 20 sessions and bust once or less and reach premium charge within one year.
Instead of using multiple trading methods with more work and hours to put in selections each morning, to Fair Bot.

Maybe I test with 5000£ first to get 1000£ if the market's liquidity doesn't cut it ...

All the things I talk about is as close you get to building an algorhtim or marsh using cycles pendulum effect with median values and frequencies.
This is my world to tackle scalping and to reach higher returns with out be a victim of a violated process - thanks to Massianello Formula - and estimated rules and theory ...

[Patrik Mellqvist]

I will just make one raw estimation, and when I have all the stats, I will compare it with my educated guess.

• I assume a strike ratio of 90/95/98+ with winning 5 min decay scalps.

Clerification: If once cycle has one win and then a loss, then it has 1 frequency, if two and one, it has 2 frequencies, and so on.
With some samples I can see that the 1 frequency has good potential.

• Should also make clear that if the average cash out is around 15, it takes 5 x 15 to reach 75% of one full 100% stake.
  That is 50 winning scalps versus 10 losing cycles with no present 1 frequency.
  Or if you want 6 x 15 to reach 90% of one full 100% stake.
  You get to have 60 winning scalps versus 10 losing cycles with no present 1 frequency.

• In theory, it is making it very unlikely that Zero Frequencies will appear 10 times when you have such a high strike ratio for 1 Frequency.
  But my sample and session simulation will soon put more clear light on this subject.

• In theory, I will mention two ways to tackle zero frequencies.
  Lady luck can produce 10 losing runs due to the random nature and variance (even with positive expectation).
  But a zig zag performance with such degree is more rare due to some other test within some other areas of my life.

One on going losing strike that just continue, is not the melodi to follow (except with Set & Forget) but here we scalping and use all tools that can benefit us.
So after one loss, I will wait for a fictive winning scalp, before entering with the Massianello Formula again.

No is not gamblers fallacy and I will explain why.
Assume I have 98+ strike ratio with cycles of one or more winnings in a row. Then by random nature they will procude more series of winnings, minimum two or more, that's fact and not fiction.
And opposite will have less, simple as that.
Based upon the overwhelming pendulum effect, a fictive win will produce more series of winners than not.

So summary is that we will never be victim for ...

LLLLLLLLLL

Or

WLWLWLWLWLWLWLWLWLWL

Will try to finish median value measuring this weekend.
As my Fair bot will do my trading this weekend.

Cheers

[Patrik Mellqvist]

Not what I expected - the 1 in 3 ratio is not cutting the edge - but ...
Around 16/17 % cash out after one winning scalp that give a 1 in 6 ratio - that is pretty nice value as my experience is 8 to 10+ to cover a break even position when scalping.

This is because the whole tick and high entering odds create a nice return.
I just started to gather statistics for 2022/2023, all leagues.

So a 5 winning cycle (frequencies) will cut it.
So now is just gathering stats to see the random distributions flow of the overall median value (described above)

This is two sequences with 7 and 11 wins in a row.
Each cycle above the threshold of 5.

wwwwwww l wwwwwwwwwww l

So the point is, can you get the majority with 5 versus a situation where you have 10 cycles or more opposite to 10 with less than 5?
Where a 10/10 situation occurs... less than 1 in 5 sessions in the long term, you have a winner.
That's the key factor with Masinello Formula.

I have a very good feeling about this.

Phase 1
Get one full year statistics

Phase 2
Simulate the statistics with simulation software

Phase 3
Validate and estimate results

Phase 4
Start playing with real money

Phase 5
Show the data for the BTC community

Cheers Patrik

[Patrik Mellqvist]

Today, I will start using the statistical model to validate the process and strategy.
3% risk from Bankroll.
90% tie or win where the tie is around 20% and loses around 20%.
So I already know before I finish that I have a good chance of success.

Maybe this will be one of the future public BTC scalping methods.
The issue is that I need to ask UFT for permission to reveal the formula with a 1 in 3 ratio - which is much more complex than just a time-decay trade.

The first process is to check 200+ scalps and their median value.
To get a hint about the sequential hit frequencies.
This will determine whether to play continuously or start each new entering point from an indication factor where a positive cycle has begun, like jumping on waves that come and go in cycles.
It is not the gamblers fallacy as we deal with hit frequencies estimated length value where we want to be part from the beginning to the cutting edge to achieve 60+ strike ratio.

As I am not going to be a victim to curve fitting, so do I post the statistical data for everyone to observe and tackle.
Where a - no goal between 45 to 50 min is a win or tie - and a goal between 45 to 50 min is a loss.
If there is no goal between 45/50 and a goal from 51 to 63 min, there is a tie.
If there is no goal between 45/50 min but a goal between 63 to full time, we have a winning scalp.

That is how you can see the performance with the statistical data.
Odds 6.00+ at Half Time any current goal market or correct score market.
The tick value is a whole tick between the example backing at 6 and laying at 5 during 4,5,6, minutes mark depending on drifting price movement, sometimes 3 to 4 min and most commonly 5 min and at rare times 6 min.

CGMBETEXPORT.XLS

It's simple to get the median value data - the first crucial step for frequencies - just write (T for tie) and (W for win) and (L for loss).
Then calculate the numbers for sequential cycles frequencies.

WTWWWTWTTTWL - WTTWTWWWWWWTWTWTTWWTL -

Have a nice sunday ... update soon ...